The Road Ahead A Look at the South and Rural America Presented by: J. Mac Holladay, CEO Market Street Services, Inc. 2003.

The Road AheadA Look at the South and Rural America

Presented by: J. Mac Holladay, CEO

Market Street Services, Inc.www.marketstreetservices.com

2003 Southern Institute for Rural Development

September 8, 2003

© Market Street ServicesReprints Permitted with Attribution


What Do We Know?

• Changing Economy• Jobs and the New Economy• September 11, 2001• Rural America Today• The Southern United States



• Undergoing continuing fundamental changes in US economy.

• Until mid-2001, the U.S. experienced the strongest growth and development in history – record lows in unemployment and record growth in per capita income.

• Fortune 500 companies made up 26% of nonagricultural workforce 30 years ago and those firms have lost over 12 million jobs.

• In the 1990s, medium and small companies account for all of the net job growth across the country.

Changing StructureOf The Economy



1. General Motors2. Exxon3. Ford4. Mobil5. Texaco6. Standard Oil –

California7. IBM8. General Electric9. Gulf Oil10. Chrysler11. International

Telephone and Telegraph

12. Standard Oil – Industrial

13. Atlantic Richfield14. Shell15. US Steel16. E.I. duPont17. Western Electric18. Continental Oil19. Tenneco20. Procter and

Gamble21. Union Carbide22. Goodyear23. Sun Oil24. Caterpillar25. Eastman Kodak

1979 Fortune 500: Top 25



1. Wal-Mart2. Exxon/Mobil3. General Motors4. Ford 5. Enron6. General Electric7. Citigroup8. Chevron/Texaco9. IBM10.Philip Morris11.Verizon12.American International

Group13.American Electric

14.Duke Energy15.AT&T16.Boeing17.El Paso18.Home Depot19.Bank of America20.Fannie Mae21.JP Morgan Chase22.Kroger23.Cardinal Health24.Merck25.State Farm Insurance

2002 Fortune 500: Top 25



19791979• Manufacturing 12 • Energy 11• Communications 2

2002• Energy 6• Financial 5• Manufacturing 5• Retail 3• Communications 2• Health 2• Insurance 2

Fortune 500: Top 25 – By Sector



Definition of “New Economy”

It is a knowledge and idea-based economy where the keys to wealth and job creation are the extent to which ideas, innovation, and technology are embedded in all sectors of the economy.

Source: The State New Economy Index: Progressive Policy Institute



Employment in the “New Economy”

• In the 1990s, nearly 75% of all net new jobs were created by “gazelle” firms (firms that have increased annual sales revenue by 20% for 4 straight years).

• Americans now change jobs every 3.5 years; those in their 20s change every 1.1 years.

• “Job Churning” – the dynamic of jobs created and lost in an area - is driven by new technology, increased competition, and increasing globalization.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics



• Demand for skilled workers will only intensify, 42% of US jobs in 2010 will require technical (vocational) or academic degrees, up from 29% in 2000.

• 8 of the top 10 business groupings that have the fastest wage and salary growth are in Services.

• 8 of 10 fastest growing jobs are in computers. Not programmers but software engineers, support specialists, network administrators.

• All told in 2010: 167.8 million jobs vs. 158 million workers. A worsening labor deficit. In 2000, 146 million jobs, 141 million workers.


What Kinds of Jobs are Coming?



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 %

1950 1990 2000

Professional

Skilled

Unskilled

60

20

20 2020

45

35

65

15


Required Job Skills are Increasing



Fastest Growing Occupations: 2000-2010

Business Groupings/Sectors Education and Training Required

Computer Software Engineers, Applications Bachelor’s degree

Computer Support Specialists Associate’s degree

Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software Bachelor’s degree

Network and Computer Systems Administrators Bachelor’s degree

Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts Bachelor’s degree

Desktop Publishers Postsecondary Voc Award

Database Administrators Bachelor’s degree

Personal and Home Care Aides Short-term on-the-job training

Computer Systems Analysts Bachelor’s degree

Medical Assistants Moderate-term on-the-job training



Five Key Trends in Economic

Development1. Globalization2. Technology &

Telecommunications3. Regionalism4. Sustainable Development5. Workforce Development



Current Investments in China

Company Operations Employees Investment

Coca-Cola 31 plants 20,000 $1.1 B

Kodak 5 plants; 8 outlets

5,000 $1.2 B

Motorola 2 plants 12,000 $3.4 B

Proctor & Gamble

5 plants 4,000 $1 B

Siemens 40 companies 21,000 $610 M

YUM Brands 800 KFC; 100 Pizza Huts

50,000 $400 M

Danone 50 plants 25,000 N/A



Imports - China• Imports are soaring:

– Telecom– Power making and transmission equipment– Aerospace– Computers– Appliances– Furniture

• Estimated 900,000 U.S. jobs will be lost to China by 2010, with the worst loss in manufacturing.

• Contributed 31% of furniture imports in 2001, will double “in a few years”.

• Member of WTO – all tariffs are off in 2004.

Source: Kiplinger Letter, September 27, 2002



United States $35,060Thailand $1,980Phillippines $1,020China $940India $480Vietnam $430Bangladesh $360

Annual Per Capita Income, 2002

Source: World Bank



White-Collar Globalization

• Western companies are increasingly outsourcing “knowledge jobs” to overseas locations.

• Types of jobs moving overseas include back-office support, processing, accounting, customer service, financial analysis, software and chip design, and even architectural drafting.

• Countries with well-educated, English-speaking workers are popular destinations for these jobs --- India, China, the Philippines, Mexico, Costa Rica, Russia, Hungary, and South Africa.

• Workers in these countries have skills similar to their American counterparts, but they work at a fraction of the cost.



White-Collar Globalization

Sector 2005 2010 2015Life Sciences 3,700 14,000 37,000Legal 14,000 35,000 75,000Art, Design 6,000 14,000 30,000Management 37,000 118,000 288,000Business Operations 61,000 162,000 348,000Computer 109,000 277,000 473,000Architecture 32,000 83,000 184,000Sales 29,000 97,000 227,000Office Support 295,000 791,000 1,700,000Total 586,700 1,591,000 3,362,000* To Low Wage Countries like India, China, Mexico and the Philippines

Number of U.S Jobs Moving Offshore*

Source: BusinessWeek (Forrester Research, Inc.)

September 11, 2001

Rural America Today



U.S. Rural Economy, April 2003

Source: Center for the Study of Rural America




U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: 2002 Data



Population Shifts• In the 1990s, about 25% of nonmetro counties

lost population. • Counties that lost population were characterized

by:1. Location away from metro areas2. Low population density3. Low level of natural amenities (i.e. climate, topography,

lakes and ponds)

• From 2000-2001, the number of nonmetro outmigrants totaled 2.6 million.

• Net nonmetro outmigrants totaled more than 1 million people.

Source: McGranahan and Beale. Understanding Rural Population Loss. Rural America, 17(4), Winter 2002.



Source: Rural Policy Research Institute (RUPRI)



The Rural Brain Drain• Rural communities across the United States

are having difficulty keeping and attracting young and/or educated workers.

• Even burgeoning rural areas, with tourist or recreation-based economies, are having difficulty attracting these types of workers - young ones especially.

• Rural areas that have seen influxes of educated workers are primarily in the “exurban” areas of large metropolitan areas (i.e. the “new” suburbs).



Rural Income Inequality

• From 1979 to 1999, the gap between nonmetro and central city areas in real median household income increased from $11 to $3,124.

• Over that same period, the difference between suburban and nonmetro median household incomes rose from $13,771 to $15,984.

• In 2000, rural earnings per worker averaged $23,242, about $13,000 less than metro earnings.

• Additionally, the services sector, a lower paying sector, is becoming a larger part of the rural economy.

Sources: Novack, Nancy. The Income Divide in Rural America. The Main Street Economist; Center for the Study of Rural America: October 2002.

Mclaughin, Diane. Income Inequality in America. Rural America, 17(2), Summer 2002



Source: Rural Policy Research Institute (RUPRI)



Rural Regionalism• Regional approaches to economic development are

increasingly seen as ways to combat some of the inherent comparative disadvantages in rural communities.

• Types of regions that have been successful include: – “Macro” regions = large multi-state regions often created

by Federal legislation, examples include the Appalachian Regional Commission and the Delta Authority.

– Self-defined regions = can emerge from new business opportunities or other factors.

– Economic regions = multi-county regions formed to help blur political boundaries in a common economy.

– Natural resource regions = formed to protect natural resources such as watersheds or natural habitats.

Source: Drabenstott, Mark and Sheaff, Katharine. The New Power of Regions: A Policy Focus for Rural America – A Conference Summary. Center for Study of Rural America: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

The Southern United States



Decline of Manufacturing: Manufacturing Jobs Lost in the South, 2001-

2002

• Alabama: -25,900• Arkansas: -24,700• Florida: -45,000• Georgia: -48,400• Kentucky: -20,000• Louisiana: -8,300

• Mississippi: -18,600 • North Carolina: -79,600• South Carolina: -39,300• Tennessee: -40,500• Virginia: -32,200• West Virginia: -8,200


TOTAL = - 390,700 JOBS



• Alabama: -35,000• Arkansas: -6,600• Florida: +72,200• Georgia: -123,100• Kentucky: +12,600• Louisiana: +9,500


• Mississippi: -12,500• North Carolina: -56,300• South Carolina: -24,700• Tennessee: -24,600• Virginia: -58,800• West Virginia: -10,900

Net Job Change in theSouth, 2001-2002

TOTAL = - 258,200 JOBS



Index of State EconomicMomentum: June 2003

(Out of 50 states)

5. Florida15. Mississippi18. Arkansas20. Kentucky21. South

Carolina 22. Tennessee

Source: State Policy Reports

24. Virginia26. Georgia29. North

Carolina34. Louisiana36. Alabama39. West Virginia



2002 State New Economy Index2002 1999

• Maryland #5 #11• Virginia #8 #12• Florida #18 #20• Georgia #22 #25• North Carolina #26 #30• Tennessee #39 #31 • South Carolina #41 #38• Kentucky #42 #39• Louisiana #45 #47• Alabama #47 #44• Mississippi #49 #50• West Virginia #50 #48

Source: Progressive Policy Institute



16.8%

13.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Southeast U.S. United States

Population Growth: 1990-2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis



Percent of Residents Who Lived in a Different House Five Years Ago, Southern Region, 1999

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

FL

MS

NC

SC

TX

OK AR

AL

TN

KY

GA

VAWV

LA




Percentage Employment Change, South, U.S.,

1994 to July 2003

2.6%

1.4%

1.9% 1.9%1.7%

1.9%

2.5%

0.3%

1.1%

3.4%

2.4%

2.8%

2.4% 2.5%

1.5%

-0.4% -0.3%-0.7%

-1.3%

1.9%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

South U.S.



Unemployment Rate, South, U.S.,

1993 to 2003 (July)


6.3

5.5 5.45.1

4.6

4.24.0 3.9

5.5 5.65.8

6.5

5.5 5.65.4

4.74.4

4.0 3.9

5.86.0

6.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

South United States



14.7%

30.1%

7.0%

16.9%

4.4%5.1%

11.6%

6.3%

2.0%

13.6%

31.8%

8.1%

16.3%

4.5%4.9%

11.4%

5.7%

1.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Southeast United States

Sector Employment Comparison: 2000

Farming

Agriculture

Construction

Manufacturing

TCU

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

FIRE

Services

Government

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

FIRE = Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate; TCU = Transportation, Communications, and Utilities.



$13,184$14,420

$20,218 $21,587

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

1990 2000

South United States

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Per Capita Income, South, U.S.,

1990, 2000

Innovative Rural Practices



“Rural America has an exciting frontier of new opportunities… New business relationships and partnerships that achieve critical mass are essential to capturing new economic gains.

Thinking regionally offers great power in building these synergies. In the end, leadership may be the essential ingredient in forging new regions in rural America.”

Mark Drabenstott & Katharine H. Sheaff

Center for the Study of Rural America



•Created a broad domestic and international business base in the region.

•Collaborated with government to establish nine industrial parks in the area.

• Created the Tupelo Furniture Market, now the second largest furniture market in the U.S.

• Launched the National Model for Technical Education to improve and coordinate career training and development within the Tupelo area.

• Created “one-stop” Career Centers to assist businesses and industries with workforce assessment, training and counseling-related activities.

Community Development Foundation: Tupelo,

Mississippi



Iowa Cooperative• A fledgling region trying to develop pharmaceutical

crops.• Strategy driven by an emerging business

opportunity.• Requires critical mass of farmers, communities,

businesses and support institutions.• Cooperative is working to develop a cluster of 300 to

500 producers growing pharmaceutical crops. • Challenges to the effort include:

• Convincing farmers to switch from commodity production to crops requiring special production and handling procedures.

• New research is needed on crops best-suited to the region.

Source: Center for the Study of Rural America.



Virginia Enterprise Initiative

• Established in 1994 by state legislature.• Provides grants to community non-profit organizations

that assist entrepreneurs otherwise unable to obtain financing or capital.

• These non-profits must match state funding from banks, the SBA, colleges, or various private firms.

• Types of assistance offered include:– Business skills training– Personalized technical assistance– Microloans from $3,000 to $10,000– Follow-up assistance

• Total funding is over $9 million and has created 656 businesses and more than 1,600 jobs.

Source: Carl Vinson Institute of Government, University of Georgia. Dismantling Persistent Poverty.



OneGeorgia• Created with one-third of Georgia’s tobacco

settlement to fund local economic development efforts in the nonmetro parts of the state.

• Implemented through two funds:– Equity Fund = provides loans and grants for

infrastructure development– EDGE Fund = Economic Development, Growth, and

Expansion Fund helps communities that are competing for businesses from outside the state. Money must be used for public infrastructure, land acquisition, and site development.

• Has given more than $50 million and created more than 10,000 jobs.

Source: Carl Vinson Institute of Government, University of Georgia. Dismantling Persistent Poverty



NC Rural Economic Development Center

• A non-profit organization created in 1987 through initiatives by the North Carolina Commission for Jobs and Economic Growth.

• The first organization of its kind in the U.S. devoted exclusively to state rural advancement.

• Governed by a 50-member Board comprised of leaders from a variety of areas.

• Operates a variety of loan and grant programs for infrastructure development, workforce development, leadership development, business development, and rural Internet access.

• Identifies four main roles for itself: Policy Development, Capacity Building, Technical Assistance, and Program Operation.

• FY2001 operating budget = $16 million, with $5.5 million of that provided by the state.



San Juan Forum: The Four Corners

• The San Juan Forum, created in 1991, is a non-profit corporation promoting economic development in the cross-state “Four Corners” region of Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico.

• The Forum ignores state lines and serves as the umbrella organization for the various federal, state, local and tribal economic development interests in the natural economic region.

• The Forum allows this rural area to form a common and unique identity while aggregating demand for infrastructure and educational services.

• The Forum has used its leadership to solicit valuable research assistance from surrounding colleges, to help build broadband infrastructure, and to develop the region’s tourism amenities.




Ozark Ecotours:Newton County, Arkansas• Newton County Resource Council (a nonprofit

community development corporation) developed ecotourism project because of the need to provide employment for the county’s low-income residents.

• Used natural resources to create ecotours led and operated by local residents.

• These residents’ local knowledge are used an integral aspects of these tours.

• The Ecotourism Society defines ecotourism as “responsible travel to natural areas that preserves the environment and improves the well-being of local people.”



The future ain’t what it used to be.

Yogi BerraNew York Yankees Catcher

The Road Ahead



What We Know

• Recent Headlines• Employment Growth and

Decline• Potential job growth sectors• 2003 - Where are We?:

Reality and Actions



Recent Headlines • “Economy grows at 3.1% rate on strong

overall spending”(Wall Street Journal, August 29, 2003)

• “Looks like a recovery, feels like a recession”

(New York Times, September 1, 2003)

• “Bush to add post to help job picture”(Atlanta-Journal Constitution, September 2, 2003)

• “Manufacturing improves again”(USA Today, September 2, 2003)

• “Productivity jumps in Q2, but weekly jobless claims rise”

(USA Today, September 4, 2003)



Top 10 Cities – Employment Growth: 2001-2002

• Elkhart-Goshen, IN (+4.6)

• Biloxi-Gulfport-Pascagoula, MS (+4.0%)

• Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (+3.8%)

• McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX (+3.5%)

• Santa Fe, NM (+3.3%)

• Chico-Paradise, CA (+3.1%)

• Tacoma, WA (+2.9%)

• Las Vegas, NV (+2.8%)

• Atlantic City-Cape May, NJ (+2.6%)

• Madison, WI (+2.5%)

Source: Economy.com



Top 10 Cities – Employment Decline: 2001-2002

• Flint, MI (-4.3%)• Decatur, IL (-3.3%)• Boulder-Longmont,

CO (-3.0%)• San Jose, CA (-

3.0%)• Florence, AL (-2.9%)

• Wichita, KS (-2.7%)• Saginaw-Bay City-

Midland, MI (-2.6%)• Elmira, NY (-2.5%)• Danville, VA (-2.4%)• Sheboygan, WI

(-2.4%)

Source: Economy.com

Source: Economy.com



We are in uncharted waters. In what sector of the economy can we find a driver for recovery –

and how do we make it happen? We are at a loss.

Gary Shoesmith Center for Economic Studies

Wake Forest UniversityDecember 2002



Potential Job Growth Sectors

• Health Care – Top to Bottom. • Federal Government (and Contractors)• Tourism• Computer related – support, software,

technicians, programmers. • Logistics – entire range• Headquarters – small, international,

and nonprofits. • Financial Services



What I See – September 2003

• This is not the 1990s, and they will never be back.

• Regional economy continues to “struggle,” but the “bleeding” is slowing.

• Number and size of projects down sharply - some projects in logistics, transportation, and financial services.

• Little business investment, further delays in final decisions.

• Consumer confidence hit its lowest level since October 1993 in March, and again in July, but increased 5.6% in August.



What I See – September 2003

• Bankruptcies are up and small business starts are down.

• The stock market has lost approximately $7.0 trillion in value since January 2000.

• Job creation leader is the federal government.

• State budgets will get worse.• The short-term question marks are the

aftermath of the war with Iraq and dealing with North Korea.



1. Concentrate on improving the quality of the workforce – it is and will remain the #1 issue in economic development.

2. Nurture existing business – create technology-based system for growth companies/businesses…don’t waste time.

3. Support entrepreneurship in new ways – a cultural issue.

Actions for this Economy



4. Recruit carefully and smart, based on asset advantages and existing connections – clear strategy for each cluster or area of emphasis.

5. Look for “overlooked” assets and opportunities – multiple strategies are key.

6. Marketing reality –quality website and personal relationships are the necessities.

7. Remember Quality of Life is very important and it is an individual choice.

Actions for this Economy



We are going from hunter-gathers to

gardeners.

Dr. David KolzowExecutive Director

Institute for Economic DevelopmentUniversity of Southern Mississippi



What do we really want? What kind of life – and what kind of society – do we want to bequeath to coming generations?

To purposefully address it we must harness all of our intelligence, our energy and most important, our awareness. The task of building a truly creative society is not a game of solitaire. This game, we play as a team.

Richard FloridaThe Rise of the Creative Class

Presented by: J. Mac Holladay, CEO

Market Street Services, Inc.www.marketstreetservices.com


September 8, 2003

The Road AheadA Look at the South and Rural America

The Road Ahead A Look at the South and Rural America Presented by: J. Mac Holladay, CEO Market Street Services, Inc. 2003.

Documents

southern institute

economy jobs

rural development undergoing

rural development employment

rural america

ceo market street services

us economy

state new economy index