The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows in and out of Scotland in and out of Scotland by Alessandra Faggian University of Southampton & Cher Li Robert E. Wright University of Strathclyde ERSA Conference, Liverpool, Aug. 2008 ERSA Conference, Liverpool, Aug. 2008
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The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows in and out of Scotland by Alessandra Faggian University of Southampton.
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The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows
in and out of Scotlandin and out of Scotland
by
Alessandra FaggianUniversity of Southampton
&
Cher LiRobert E. Wright
University of Strathclyde
ERSA Conference, Liverpool, Aug. 2008ERSA Conference, Liverpool, Aug. 2008
Introduction
One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of GB
Why bother?
•Not a great deal is known about this.
•Regional focus: Scotland, England and Wales
•export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services
•Information along these lines will be fed into the CGE analysis
Slide 2/23
Policy Relevance
• Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland
• Migration flows of students and graduate thought to reinforce migration flows of general population (north and west to the east)
• “Belief” that building Higher and Further Education institutions in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends
Slide 3/23
HESA (Higher Education Statistical Agency) is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK.
We use two datasets:(1) Destinations of leavers from HEIs (DLHE)(1) Destinations of leavers from HEIs (DLHE)(2) Students in HEIs (2) Students in HEIs
12 waves available from 1994/95 to 2005/2006
For current analysis, we focus on the most recent wave (05/06) which includes information on around 2.4 million students and around 230,000 graduates.
DataData
Slide 4/23
A Brief Picture of HEIs in Scotland
20 HEIs: 8 pre-92 Universities, 6 post-92 Universities and 7 Colleges (mainly clustered around Glasgow and Edinburgh)
Total number of students in 05/06: 215, 820
Number of students went up by 44.9% between 94/95 and 05/06 (c.f. national average 49.1%; England 48.7%).
The Royal Scottish Academy of Music and Drama Glasgow School of Art
***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level
Slide 19/23
Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer
Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer
.47
-.76
.55
-.6
.65
-.43
.77
-.26
.91
-.1
1.07
.07
1.26
.23
1.49
.4
1.76
.56
I L
S
I L
S
I L
S
I L
S
I L
S
I L
S
Male 0/1
Black Ethnicity 0/1
Asian Ethnicity 0/1
Mixed Ethnicity 0/1
1st/2:1 degree 0/1
Postgraduate 0/1
Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 2)
Slide 20/23
Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer
Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer
.36 .45 .56 .71 .89 1.12 1.41 1.78 2.24
I L
S
I L
S
I L
S
I L
S
I L
S
Social sciences 0/1
Sciences 0/1
Combined 0/1
Ex polytechnics 0/1
College 0/1
Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 2), cont
Slide 21/23
Conclusions and Future Work
Future workTo incorporate more variables on regional characteristics, e.g. quality of life, social/economic environment;
To use more disaggregated regions for analysis of England/Wales, e.g. NUTS2;
Check for consistency of results over time and/or time trends by incorporating longer time series in the analysis
Preliminary ConclusionsScotland is a ‘net-loser’ of graduates in absolute terms, but vis-à-vis elsewhere in GB, it attracts the largest % of high-quality graduates
Determinants of leavers similar from and to Scotland: male(+), age(-), Asian(-), postgraduate(+), 1st/2.1(+), science(+), combined(+), ex-polytech(-), college(-), and regional effects
Regional retention of human capital crucial: high-mobility graduates are of best quality