TEN-YEAR FoRECAST | 2012 Forecasts www.iftf.org The Challenge Amplifying opportunities for participation in local and global wealth creation The Shape of Transformation From institutional wage labor to networked microcontributions social production THE REORGANIZATION OF WEALTH 100 year forecast The industrial model of wage labor is unravel- ing. The search for new sources of low-wage workers drives waves of dislocated production around the world, leaving high unemploy- ment in their wake. Automation creeps up the labor value chain, eliminating all kinds of jobs that used to require human participation. The social contract with the younger generations is broken: even well-educated young people find themselves increasingly burdened with student loan debts and scant job opportuni- ties to pay them off. At the same time, social production—leveraging open-source tools and data and ever more sophisticated techniques for self-organization—is redefining and reor- ganizing wealth. As the century unfolds, this new model of production will transform the wage-based consumer economy into a civil economy based on social production. In less than a decade, the platforms and practices of social production have already begun to disrupt jobs and industries. Much faster than anyone expected, the technique that originated in open-source programming is spreading beyond a few narrow sectors to transform the template for producing goods and services. Underemployed “hackers” convene in intensive weekend meetups to find solutions to civic problems, displacing multi-month, million-dollar contracts. Citizen scientists create ad hoc laboratories and convene large-scale networks to fast-track both theoretical and practical discoveries. In neighborhoods and on the streets, people are figuring out how to share goods and offer services at micro-scales, altering the flows of time and capital in daily life. At the same time, the youngest generation is learning the new workforce skills. Ten-year- olds use CADCAM and 3D printers—think origo—to make their own toys. They can navigate the web and participate in social networks and virtual worlds before they start kindergarten. Kid’s programming sites like GameSalad teach them not only programming skills but also the template for open-source collaboration. By mid-century, this do-it- yourself workforce will be at the peak of their productive lives. By the end of the century, their own children may no longer even think of themselves as a workforce. They may simply see themselves as citizens of the local and virtual ecologies they occupy. Already we see youth around the world gravitating toward jobs that promise social value and social connection. Shut out of wage-labor jobs, they are applying their ener- gies to obvious and pressing needs across a range of scales from household to commu- nity to the planet and even beyond. They are evolving new kinds of institutions using the nascent models of social enterprises, B-cor- porations, even games. The result will be a new fusion of these public and private sectors into what we might call a civil economy—one that blends the worker- consumer and the citizen taxpayer into a new brand of citizen-producer who uses micro- contributions and micro-investments to vote with their productive capacity. —Kathi Vian
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TEN-YEARFoRECAST|2012Forecastswww.iftf.org
T h e C h a l l e n g eAmplifying opportunities for participation in local and global wealth creation
T h e S h a p e o f T r a n s f o r m at i o nFrom institutional wage labor to networked microcontributions
s o c i a l p r o d u c t i o nT H E R EO R G A N I Z AT I O N O F W E A LT H
1 0 0 year forecast
Theindustrialmodelofwagelaborisunravel-ing.Thesearchfornewsourcesoflow-wageworkersdriveswavesofdislocatedproductionaroundtheworld,leavinghighunemploy-mentintheirwake.Automationcreepsupthelaborvaluechain,eliminatingallkindsofjobsthatusedtorequirehumanparticipation.Thesocialcontractwiththeyoungergenerationsisbroken:evenwell-educatedyoungpeoplefindthemselvesincreasinglyburdenedwithstudentloandebtsandscantjobopportuni-tiestopaythemoff.Atthesametime,socialproduction—leveragingopen-sourcetoolsanddataandevermoresophisticatedtechniquesforself-organization—isredefiningandreor-ganizingwealth.Asthecenturyunfolds,thisnewmodelofproductionwilltransformthewage-basedconsumereconomyintoacivileconomybasedonsocialproduction.
Inlessthanadecade,theplatformsandpracticesofsocialproductionhavealreadybeguntodisruptjobsandindustries.Muchfasterthananyoneexpected,thetechniquethatoriginatedinopen-sourceprogrammingisspreadingbeyondafewnarrowsectorstotransformthetemplateforproducinggoodsandservices.Underemployed“hackers”conveneinintensiveweekendmeetupstofindsolutionstocivicproblems,displacingmulti-month,million-dollarcontracts.Citizenscientistscreateadhoclaboratoriesandconvenelarge-scalenetworkstofast-trackboththeoreticalandpracticaldiscoveries.Inneighborhoodsandonthestreets,peoplearefiguringouthowtosharegoodsandofferservicesatmicro-scales,alteringtheflowsoftimeandcapitalindailylife.
Atthesametime,theyoungestgenerationislearningthenewworkforceskills.Ten-year-oldsuseCADCAMand3Dprinters—thinkorigo—tomaketheirowntoys.Theycannavigatethewebandparticipateinsocialnetworksandvirtualworldsbeforetheystartkindergarten.Kid’sprogrammingsiteslikeGameSaladteachthemnotonlyprogrammingskillsbutalsothetemplateforopen-sourcecollaboration.Bymid-century,thisdo-it-yourselfworkforcewillbeatthepeakoftheirproductivelives.
Bytheendofthecentury,theirownchildrenmaynolongereventhinkofthemselvesasaworkforce.Theymaysimplyseethemselvesascitizensofthelocalandvirtualecologiestheyoccupy.Alreadyweseeyoutharoundtheworldgravitatingtowardjobsthatpromisesocialvalueandsocialconnection.Shutoutofwage-laborjobs,theyareapplyingtheirener-giestoobviousandpressingneedsacrossarangeofscalesfromhouseholdtocommu-nitytotheplanetandevenbeyond.Theyareevolvingnewkindsofinstitutionsusingthenascentmodelsofsocialenterprises,B-cor-porations,evengames.
Theresultwillbeanewfusionofthesepublicandprivatesectorsintowhatwemightcallacivileconomy—onethatblendstheworker-consumerandthecitizentaxpayerintoanewbrandofcitizen-producerwhousesmicro-contributionsandmicro-investmentstovotewiththeirproductivecapacity.
—KathiVian
T h e C o r e D i l e m m a Perhaps the most fundamental dilemma as we restructure the global economy and governance systems to avoid massive poverty will be the tension between the expectation that growing the economy will grow jobs and the emerging reality of jobless growth.
Dilemmas typically take shape when short-term benefits mask long-term costs—or when long-term benefits require short-term costs. These are particularly acute when one group experiences the costs while another experiences the benefits.
Short Term Long Term
Costs • RapidhollowingofIPandincomewealthintraditionalindustriesasopen-sourcestrategiestargetevermoresectors
• MuchhighercoststoprotectIPandprivateinterests
• Continuedlossofjobsasmarketsarerestructured
• Growthoforganizedcrimeasasourceof“employment”
• Acceleratingcyclesofgrowthandcollapse
Costs • Increasingdebtburdenofcountriesthattrytogrowtheirwayoutofpovertyandunemployment
• Failureofmanycurrencies—includinggovernment-backedcurrencies
• Slowergrowthforindustrializingcountries
• Legacyenvironmentalcostsas“rustbelts”spreadworldwide
• Legacyhealthcostsasaresultofcurrentpovertylevels
Benefits• Growthofwealthfrominnovationinprivateplatformsforpublicgood
• Unleashedcapacityintheworkforceforexperimentationandinnovation
• Newkindsofemploymentopportunitiesintargetedsectors
• Alternativeemploymentopportunitiesforsomesegmentsoftheunemployed
Benefits• Growthoffor-benefitorganizationsandinstitutionstomeetsocialandenvironmentalneeds
• Redirectionofproductivecapacitytospecificneedsoflocalcommunities
• Low-coststructuresforretrainingandrepurposingtheworkforce
• Greatertransparencyofpowerstructures
• Widespreadjust-in-timecivicengagement
• New,morerobustmodelsofdemocracy
s o c i a l p r o d u c t i o n
Battles for control of intellectual propertys o c i a l p r o d u c t i o n
New measurements of value in open systems
I n c u m b e n t P a t h
I n c u m b e n t P a t he m e r g e n t P a t h
e m e r g e n t P a t hs o c i a l p r o d u c t i o n K e y F r i c t i o n s
T h e P l at fo r m sOpen vs. Private
• Consumer-focusedplatformsgeneratesmallincomeopportunitiesformanymoreplayersandverybigincomeopportunitiesforafew.
• Ownershipofpersonaldataandpersonalcontentbecomesafocalissueforsocialplatforms.
• Openplatformscontinuetoundercutlegacyinstitutionsinscience,education,health,andcivicservices.
• Newmodelsforinvestmentinfor-benefitplatformsandprojectsprovidealternativestotraditionalinvestmentstrategies.
• Opendatacreatesplatformsforlocalsocialcommerceandcivicengagement.
• Hackertechniquesandhackercommunitiesspreadtoallsegmentsofthepublicandprivatesectors.
• Newplatformsbuildfungibilityofvalueacrossquantitativeandqualitativevalue-exchanges.
• Globalorganizedcrimenetworksbecomethemajorfocusofglobalconflict.
M e a s u r e m e n t a n d M ot i vat i o n
Extrinsic vs. Intrinsic
• Toolsformanagingmicro-earningsemerge.
• Newformsofvalueexchangesdrivenewformsofbanking.
• Governmentscrackdownonalternativecurrencies,eitheroutlawingortaxingthem.
• Governmentsattempttotaxsocialexchanges.
• Game-basedplatforms,whichgenerateagrowingportionofGDP,usegamemetricstomanageflowsofwealthanddefinenewmeasuresofGDP.
• “Friend”statisticsshapeaccesstojobsandentrepreneurialsuccess.
• Insurancecompaniesevolvenewmodelsforreducingtheriskofsocialtransactions.
C o n t r o lTechnological vs. Social
• Peer-to-peermonitoringredefinespersonalandpublicsecurity.
• Reversemonitoringofpublicandprivatesecurityforcesincreasesaccountabilitybutundercutslawenforcement.
• Thecombinationofsensorsandlargedatasetscreatesfeedbacksystemsthatredefinepersonalandcollectivewell-being.
• Citizenreportingplatformsbecomede factoplatformsforparticipatorybudgetingandlegislation.
• Sensorscreateanewlevelofcivicconveniencethat,attimes,supercedescivilrights.
S i g n a l s
3D toy making for next-gen workforce
Origoisdevelopingthefirstdesktop3Dprinter,designedforusewiththe3Dtinmodel-ingapplicationforchildrenwhowanttodrawandthenprinttheirowntoys.
origo3dprinting.com
Open social platforms
AmongtheopenplatformsseekingtounseatFacebookandgiveusersmorecontrolovertheirdataisUnthink,whichattractedover100,000membersinitsfirstweek.
unthink.com
Citizen reporting platforms
SeeClickFixisacitizenreportingplatformthat
helpspeoplereportproblemsintheir
community—andsetprioritiesby“liking”particularproblems.
govfresh.com
Micro-enterprise platforms
CoffeeandPowerisanewsocialmediasitewherefreelanceworkerscan
offertheirservices—withrecommendationsfrom
friendsandratingsbythosewhobuytheirofferings.
blog.coffeeandpower.com
©2012InstitutefortheFuture.Allrightsreserved.Allbrandsandtrademarksremainthepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.Reproductionisprohibitedwithoutwrittenconsent.SR-1473
Today’s global protests from the right and left cast restive shadows over the next ten years and foretell a decade in which economic unrest is as potent as political unrest. The emerging practices of social production in both the private and public spheres will take shape in the midst of this turbulence—and they will also shape it. Spreading rapidly in the coming decade, these practices will challenge the value propositions of both traditional commercial and gov-ernment institutions. They will disrupt livelihoods, contribute to rapid cycles of growth and collapse of markets, and create new shadow governments that lay the foundation for a new kind of democracy—not without strenuous resistance from existing power holders.
T H E P L AT FO R M S : O P E N V S . P R I VAT E
Socialproductionisplatformdriven,andthebigbattlesofthecomingdecadewillbebetweenopenandprivateplatforms.WithAppleiTunesastheiconictemplateforcommercialsuccess,investorswilllookforotherkillerplatforms.Competitionandinnovationwillbefierce,andplat-formswillevolvequickly.Atthesametime,opensolutionswillchallengeprivateplatformsthatcommercializetheirmembers’dataandrestricttheirrightsofownership.NewentrieslikeUnthinkwillriseuptochallengeFacebook.Apachewillcontinuetoout-deployMicrosoftIIS.Thewaytheseplatformsdifferentiatethemselvesfromeachotherwillgiveusapreviewoftheissuesandstrategiesoftheemergingcivileconomy.Themovesbygovernmentstocontrolthemwillrevealthethreatstheyposetolegacyleaders.
M E A S U R E M E N T A N D M OT I VAT I O N : E X T R I N S I C V S . I N T R I N S I C
Economicsandgovernanceareallaboutmeasurementandmotivation,andtheemergingeconomyofsocialproductionwillshifttheparadigmsforboth.MichelBauwenoftheP2PFoundationdescribesthisshiftintermsofextrinsicversusintrinsiclevers.Wheretheconsumerwage-basedeconomyhasmasteredpositiveextrinsicmotivationstocreategrowthofGDParoundtheworld,aneconomyofsocialproductionwillleverageintrinsicmotivations—personalsatisfaction,socialfulfillment,health,andhappiness—toproduceanewkindofengagedandproductivecitizenry.
Money,intheformofgovernment-backedcurrencies,willcertainlycontinuetobethecoremeasureofextrinsicmotivationthroughthenextdecade,andevenopenplatformswillattempttomonetizeintrinsicvalueasawaytomeasureindividualproductivity.Governmentswillalsoattempttotaxthisvalue.Butoverandover,thevaluepropositionofcollaborativeplatformsthatpromiseeconomicbenefitwillshifttomoreintrinsicvaluessuchasfriendship,community,andwell-being.TheNeighborGoodsexperiencewillbeduplicated:itsfoundersdiscoveredthattherealvalueofasharingplatformisintherelationshipsthatneighborsevolveratherthantheexchangeofgoods.Thisshiftofvalue,repeatedoverandoveramongsocialplatforms,willgiverisetotheillusionthatsocialproductionismerelyafringestory—untilitissopervasiveandhassubvertedsomuchofthemonetaryeconomythatmoneyactuallybecomesthefringemotivation.
CO N T R O L : T EC H N O LO G I C A L V S . SO C I A L
Evenastherulesofsocialproductionandcivicengagementareevolving,thetoolsformonitor-ingandenforcingthoserulesareproliferating.Acriticalquestionoverthecomingdecadewillbetheextenttowhichcontrolsareautomated—usingtheplatformsofsocialproductionasplatformsofciviccontrol.Theopportunitiesforcollectingdataprofilesforeverycitizen,includingreal-timelocationandbiometricdata,willbevast.Sowilltheopportunitiesforimposingtechnologicalrestrictionsorautomatinglegislation.Ascommunitiesstrugglewithcollapsingeconomies,legacyinstitutions,andtheunchartedterritoryofsocialproductionandparticipatorycivics,thechoicebetweentechnologicalandsocialcontrolswillbeastridentbackdroptoalmosteveryconversation.
1 0 year forecast T h e b i g va lu e s h i f t
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