The REDD-pac project and Globiom Brazil

THE REDD-PAC PROJECT AND GLOBIOM BRAZILGilberto Câmara, INPE

Aline Mosnier, IIASA

Fernando Ramos, INPE

Ricardo Cartaxo, INPE

Aline Soterroni, INPE

Pedro Andrade, INPE

Alexandre Ywata, IPEA

[email protected]

Warsaw, November 16, 2013

National Institute for SpaceResearch - Brazil

REDD+ Policy Assessment Center

Introduction

What are the local strategies that can contribute to the global goals?

• The outcome with the local strategy must be better than without the strategy globally

• Taking into account direct and indirect effects in all the sectors• Taking into account indirect effects in the other countries/regions

Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation

The Brazilian Case:

• The new forest code• Low carbon agriculture program (ABC program)• Loans to technology adoption and intensification• PPCerrado (plan to reduce deforestation in the Cerrado Biome)• Plans for other biomes• Forest plantation policies• Infrastructure improvements• Etc.

Land use models may help understand the potential joint impact

Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation

Policies to be addressed with land use models: biofuels in Brazil

Gasoline PriceRelative prices: gasoline

versus alcohol

Domestic demand shitIncrease in biofuels prices for the producers

Change in land use dynamics

- Deforestation pressure- Crop production- Emissions- Pasture areas- Spatial location- Land use change

Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation

Policies to be addressed with land use models: subsidized loans to rural producers (example, ABC Program)

Subsidized loans Technology adoption (intensification, sustainable

techniques etc.)

Increase in productivityReducing deforestation pressure

- Crop production- Emissions- Pasture areas- Spatial location- Land use change

GLOBIOM MODEL

GLOBIOM

SUPPLY

Process

DEMAND

Wood products Food Bioenergy

G4M

Exogenous driversPopulation, GDP

Primary wood products

Crops

Country HRU*PX30

PX5

SimU delineation relatedstatistics on LC classes and

Cropland management systems

reference for geo-coded data on crop management;

input statistical data for LC/LU economic optimization;

LC&LUstat

PROCESS

PX5

Altitude class, Slope class, Soil Class

PX5

Altitude class (m): 0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500;

Slope class (deg): 0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50;

Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat;

HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil

Biophysical models

Between 10*10 km and

50*50 km

Aggregation in larger

units (max 200*200 km)

28 regions

EPIC RUMINANT

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT INPUT DATA

Climate Soil and topography Management Land cover

Spatially explicit input data• Initial land cover => GLC 2000

CROPLAND FORESTS

GRASSLAND OTHER NATURAL LAND

Spatially explicit input dataAGRICULTURE FORESTRY BIOENERGY

WheatRice

MaizeSoybean

BarleySorghum

MilletCotton

Dry beansRapeseed

GroundnutSugarcanePotatoesCassava

SunflowerChickpeasOil Palm

Sweet potatoes

BuffaloCattleSheepGoatPig

Poultry

BeefLambPork

PoultryEggsMilk

Biomass for log productionFuel wood

Other wood

Pulp woodLogs

EthanolFAME

MethanolHeat

ElectricityBiogas

GLOBIOM BRAZIL

Improvements on Brazilian Model• Transportation costs• Land cover and land use• Productivity• Total Production• Domestic demand• Scenarios for per capita GDP, population growth, biofuels consumption• Calibration and fine tuning for model parameters

GLOBIOM Brazil

• 11003 SimUs

• 3001 CRs

GLOBIOM Brazil

• 11003 SimUs

• 3001 CRs

• 26 States + DF

GLOBIOM Brazil

• 11003 SimUs

• 3001 CRs

• 26 States + DF

• Legal Amazon

GLOBIOM Brazil

• 11003 SimUs

• 3001 CRs

• 26 States + DF

• Legal Amazon

• 6 Biomes

COSTS TO NEAREST PORT

CORN

SOY

TRANSPORTATION COSTS

New Land Cover and Use Map

CROP DISTRIBUTION (2000)

PROTECTED AREAS

PRELIMINARY RESULTSFOREST EVOLUTION

Forest Evolution – 2000

Forest Evolution – 2010

Forest Evolution – 2020

Forest Evolution – 2030

Forest Evolution – 2040

Forest Evolution – 2050

Deforestation Pattern (2000 to 2010)

Arc of Deforestation

Source: FAO

Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation

• Policy planning has be scientific evidence based

• Land use is too complex to be addressed by a monosectorial approach

• GLOBIOM integrates a large set of geo-maps, biophysical and biodiversity information, and economic theory and helps us provide assessment over time

THANK YOU!