The Re-Engaged Generation 2004 and Beyond Peter LevineIvan Frishberg Deputy DirectorNew Voters Project/ CIRCLEState PIRGs .

The Re-Engaged Generation2004 and Beyond

Peter Levine Ivan FrishbergDeputy Director New Voters Project/CIRCLE State PIRGs www.civicyouth.org www.pirg.org

Election 2004

What Happened?

What Happened? Youth turnout was up

Youth turnout had been declining since the 1970s—down by about one third

0

20

40

60

80

100

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

18-24s 25 and older

Source: Census, analyzed by CIRCLE

What Happened? Youth turnout was up

There are two main sets of exit polls for ’04.

Both show substantial increases in youth turnout.

For 18-24s, turnout was up either 5.3 or 10.8 points to either 42% or 48%

Census data will be available in about six months

37%42%

48%52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18 - 24 18 - 29

2000 2004

What Happened? Youth turnout was up

Approximately 21 million votes were cast by 18-29 year olds, and 10.5 million were cast by 18-24 year olds, both up sharply from 2000.

Greatest turnout since 1992 and probably since the mid-1970s

Based on exit polls and Census population data, analyzed by CIRCLE

What Happened? Battleground vs. non-battleground

51%

38%

64%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%50%

60%

70%

2004 2000

Non-Battleground Battleground

18-29s. Source: exit polls, analyzed by CIRCLE

What Happened? Women and Men

.

37% 36%

46%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2004 2000

men (18-24) women (18-24)

18-29s. Source: exit polls, analyzed by CIRCLE

What Happened? Young voters were interested in this election

85%

63%

81%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Paying Attention to the Campaign (registeredvoters 18-29)

1992 2000 2004

Source: MTV and MTV/CIRCLE polls

What happened? Young people were mobilized and mobilized others

Of college students ….

47%—and 57% of those who attend college in a battleground state—said they were contacted by a political party during the campaign62% said that they had encouraged or helped someone else to vote

Source: Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)

What happened? Most college students were permitted to vote

Source: Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)

did not vote

planned to vote but unable to

voted

not allowed to vote

0 20 40 60 80 100

What happened? Youth supported Kerry

56%51%

46% 48%54%

43%48%

53% 51%45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

18-24s 25-29s 30-44s All Voters 75+

Kerry Bush

Source: exit polls

What happened? Young people’s issue priorities

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

taxes education Iraq terrorism economy &jobs

moralvalues

health care

All Voters 18-24s College Students* *

Source: exit polls

What happened? Kerry/Bush vote by college major

65%62%

50% 50%46%

30%35%

46% 47%52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Humanities SocialScience

Science &Engineering

Business Education

Kerry Bush

(current college students. Source: Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)

The Re-Engaged GenerationGen X vs. Gen Y

They have different opinions than their

older brothers and sisters.

In comparing 18–29 year olds to 30–39 year olds, under 30s were:

more likely to identify as liberal by 12 points; Less likely to call themselves conservative by 7 points; favored gay marriage by 16 points; More likely to believe that “government should do more to

solve problems” by 5 points.

Election 2004

Why did it happen?

Why did it happen?This is NOT Generation X.

They are different

They voted. They paid more attention to election news than 2000. UCLA reports that youth interest in politics is on the rise for

the first time in two decades. Volunteering is up for young people. Over half volunteered

in 2002. They watch less TV They are more trusting of government and more pro-

government

Why did it happen?This is NOT Generation X.

There are more of them

They are more numerous.

They have a much stronger “generational identity”

Why did it happen?Unprecedented efforts to reach them.

Investing time and money pays off in new voters. The six largest non-partisan youth vote organizations, spent

$40 million dollars on the most comprehensive young voter mobilization campaign in history.

The Republicans employed the National College Republicans, what many consider the nation’s strongest college organizing force.

The Democrats channeled their donor dollars to 527s, including the Young Voter Alliance and 21st Century Democrats.

Overall trend to face to face grassroots contact has a greater impact on new voters.

First youth targeted ad buys by a presidential campaign.

Increased Voter Registration Among 18-24 Year Olds

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Linn Dubuque Polk Johnson

2000

2004

Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties

Increased Turnout Rate Among Registered Voters

44%40%

48%

62%

47%

64%58%

63%70%

62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Linn* Dubuque Polk Johnson Total

Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties

Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties

18-24 Vote Totals in Four Counties

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Linn County DubuqueCounty

Polk County JohnsonCounty

Total

2000

2004

Comparing Age Groups for Two Counties With Similar Age Clusters

(Percentage Increase from 2000 to 2004)

29%

15%

33%

6%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

18-24 Dubuque& Polk

25-34 Dubuque& Polk

RegistrationIncrease

Turnout Increase

Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties

Why did it happen?The media paid attention.

Data, research and a coordinated message were vital to changing the story.

Coverage of youth voting was up 120% compared to 2000. Coverage was more in-depth, focusing on tactics and the

research. Coverage focused on the impact of young voters and their

status as an “up for grabs” constituency. Coverage was cross-cutting – in local newspaper, in major

national newspapers, on television, and among the “chattering class.”

But it was also easy to go negative: “Youth vote a bust.”

Where do we go from here?

Interest + Attention + Infrastructure

Where do we go from here?Capitalizing on 2004

Organizers: Thousands of young people were trained as grassroots organizers.

Technology: Every youth voting effort used technology to track and communicate with the young people they registered and mobilized.

Political interest: Candidates for the two 2005 open governorships have placed college tuition affordability at the top of their election agendas.

Issue Frame: According to both USA Today and The Washington Post, the President’s social security agenda is being framed as a generational issue to build a base of youth voters.

President Bush just announced an $19.3 billion plan to increase Pell Grants.

Where do we go from here?Creating a political constituency.

Example: Seniors vote and engage on issues. In turn, politicians pay attention, targeting them in campaigns and when making policy.

Can we do the same for young people?

Issue Attention Political Engagement

Political AttentionVoting

Where do we go from here? Creating a Political Constituency

Register more young people.

Engage on issues.

Mobilize young voters in 2005 and 2006 elections.

Tell the story.