The Presidential Election Cycle in the U.S.A.
Jan 17, 2016
The Presidential Election Cyclein the U.S.A.
Something to Consider…
• Which do you value more?
democracy or freedom of speech
How are elections a test of both values?
Types of Elections?
• 4 kinds: regional/local, state, congressional, Presidential
• (est. 80,000 different kinds of elections in America / year)
2 kinds in a Presidential election:1. Primary-Caucus elections—contests within
a party2. General election—contest between
parties
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Steps in the Process
1. Campaigning and fundraising--throughout
2. Caucuses and Primaries3. Political party conventions4. Election Day5. Vote of the Electoral College
Two Kinds of Campaign Issues
• Position issues (crunchy elections)– rival candidates have opposing views, – voters are divided and a partisan realignment
may result • Position issues in 2008: social security, defense
spending, public school choice systems
• Valence issues: (squishy elections)– Candidate supports the public, widely held view – Increasingly important because television leads
to a reliance on popular symbols and admired images• Valence issues in 2008: War on Terror, Housing and
other Financial Bubbles
The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Many Democrats seek their party’s
nomination
Many Republicans seek their party’s
nomination
Campaigns &
Debates
Campaigns &
Debates
Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The
Ring”
The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Many Democrats seek their party’s
nomination
Many Republicans seek their party’s
nomination
Campaigns &
Debates
Campaigns &
Debates
Primaries &
Caucuses
Primaries &
Caucuses
Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The
Ring”
Primaries & caucuses held in
each state
• Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008)
• New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008)
The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Many Democrats seek their party’s
nomination
Many Republicans seek their party’s
nomination
Campaigns &
Debates
Campaigns &
Debates
Primaries &
Caucuses
Primaries &
Caucuses
Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The
Ring”
Primaries & caucuses held in
each state
• Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008)
• New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008)
Obama secures
the nominatio
n
McCain secures
the nominatio
n
The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Many Democrats seek their party’s
nomination
Many Republicans seek their party’s
nomination
Campaigns &
Debates
Campaigns &
Debates
Primaries &
Caucuses
Primaries &
Caucuses
Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The
Ring”
Primaries & caucuses held in
each state
• Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008)
• New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008)
Obama secures
the nominatio
n
McCain secures
the nominatio
n
Obama selects Biden
as his running mate
McCain selects Palin
as his running mate
Parties Hold National Conventions
• Develop the party platform
• Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally)
• Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced
The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28,
2008)
Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4,
2008)
Parties Hold National Conventions
• Develop the party platform
• Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally)
• Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced
The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28,
2008)
Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4,
2008)
Candidates campaign against
each other and debate the issues
Parties Hold National Conventions
• Develop the party platform
• Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally)
• Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced
The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28,
2008)
Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4,
2008)
Candidates campaign against
each other and debate the issues
General Election
• 1st Tues. after the 1st Mon. in Nov. (Nov. 4, 2008)
• The “popular vote” is conducted
• Eligible citizens vote for the “electors” for Obama & McCain
Parties Hold National Conventions
• Develop the party platform
• Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally)
• Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced
The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28,
2008)
Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4,
2008)
Candidates campaign against
each other and debate the issues
General Election
• 1st Tues. after the 1st Mon. in Nov. (Nov. 4, 2008)
• The “popular vote” is conducted
• Eligible citizens vote for the “electors” for Obama & McCain
Obama: 69,456,897
Popular Votes
McCain: 59,934,814
Popular Votes
The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Electoral College Votes
• 1st Mon. after the 2nd Wed. in December (Dec. 15, 2008)
• Electors vote at their respective state capitols
• Must receive 270 votes to win
• Usually just a formality, the results are not in doubt
Obama: 365 Electoral Votes
McCain: 173 Electoral Votes
The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Electoral College Votes
• 1st Mon. after the 2nd Wed. in December (Dec. 15, 2008)
• Electors vote at their respective state capitols
• Must receive 270 votes to win
• Usually just a formality, the results are not in doubt
Inauguration
• Occurs Jan. 20 at 12:00 (noon)
• Sworn-in by the Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court
Obama: 365 Electoral Votes
McCain: 173 Electoral Votes
League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund
16
Narrowing the Field
• During and after the primary elections, many candidates are forced to drop out because of lack of support.
• National conventions serve to nominate their party’s candidate for president and vice president.
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National Conventions
• Delegates attend the National Conventions to cast their votes for a candidate.
• Candidate with a majority of delegate votes wins that party’s nomination for President.
• Vice Presidential candidates are chosen by the Presidential nominee and are nominated at the National Convention.
What factors influence voting?
• Rank the following in importance:– Likability of candidate– Belief in importance of the
office/position– Impact on personal interests– Distinction from other candidate– Party platform
• ***Voter turnout is half the battle…
How do people vote?
• “It’s the economy, stupid!”• Most voters who switch parties do so in
their own interests – They know what issues affect them personally. – They have strong principles about certain
issues (abortion, etc.). • Prospective voting is used by relatively few
voters. – Those voters know the issues and vote
accordingly. – Most common among activists and special
interest groups
Citizens United: Are Corporations Protected?
• How does Citizens United show the court’s preference for the First Amendment over democracy?
How do people vote?
• Retrospective voting practiced by most voters, and decides most elections – Judge the incumbent’s performance and vote
accordingly – Have things gotten better or worse, especially
economically? • Reagan in 1980 debate
– Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996
– Usually helps incumbent.., unless economy has gotten worse
– Midterm elections: voters turn against president’s party • 2002 exception (war)
Debates
• Usually an advantage only to the challenger
• Reagan in 1980: – reassured voters by his performance
• 1988 primary debates with little impact on voters
Effects of Election on Policy
• Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in 1945 and 1951.
• Conclusion: Many American elections do make differences in policy, though constitutional system generally moderates the pace of change.