The Power of NSIP to Improve Profitability November 21, 2015 Rusty Burgett, Program Director
The Power of NSIP to Improve Profitability
November 21, 2015
Rusty Burgett, Program Director
NSIP to Increase Profits
• Our Mission:
– To provide predictable, economically important genetic evaluation information to the American sheep industry by converting performance records into relevant decision-making tools.
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NSIP to Increase Profits
• Why do we need a profit driven genetic selection tool for U.S. sheep?
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5
6
7
8
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Australian sheep inventory and lamb production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Ewe Inventory
Lamb Production
Ind
ex o
f P
rod
uct
ion
(%
)
Source: ABARE 2014
Importance of Genetic Selection
11
• Need to produce more lamb and wool from a smaller national flock
– U.S. Sheep Industry Roadmap
– Productivity Improvement
• Wider adoption of Quantitative Genetic Selection
• Genetics are the foundation to build upon
Which Ram?
Value of a Ram
• Profit is determined by pounds of lamb sold per ewe.
– Number of lambs born
– Number of lambs weaned
– Birth, weaning and post weaning weight of lambs
Which Ram?
Importance of Genetic Selection
Phenotype = Genetics + Environment
15
~75% of what you see is due to the environment the ram was raised in
40% of growth and carcass traits are controlled by genetics
12% of Reproductive traits are controlled by genetics
Adjust for Variation
• Program will account for environmental differences (Birth type, heritability, feed…)
Phenotype = Genetics + Environment
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Estimated Breeding Values
• EBVs are tools that:
– Minimize guesswork of ram selection
– Assign number values to genetic merit
– Allows for quick, easy comparison
– More powerful than actual performance data, adjusted means...
– Focused on economically important traits
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How to Start
How do we Get EBVs?
• Similar to EPDs
• Measure Phenotypic traits of animal
– Body weights
– Carcass measurements
– Reproduction
– Wool Traits
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How do we Get EBVs?
• Submit that data to NSIP
– Pedigree Master
– Stockbook
– Other software programs
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Adjust for Variation
• Heritability = % of a trait that is controlled by genetics
• Weaning weight ~0.3 or 30% controlled by genetics
– WWT 65 X 0.3 = 19.5
– WWT 75 X 0.3 = 22.5
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Adjust for Variation
• Program will account for environmental differences (Birth type, heritability, feed…)
Phenotype = Genetics + Environment
25
Analyze pedigrees
• Compare performance to all relatives
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Analyze Pedigrees
• An individual’s performance is:
– Compared to its contemporaries
– Standardized for environment
– Compared to every known relative
• Including relatives in other flocks
• Adjust for genetic relationship (shared genes) and heritability of each trait
27
Interpreting EBVs
The Good News?
• You don’t have to worry about doing any genetic calculations!
– NSIP takes care of all the work
• Enrolled flocks just submit measures and EBVs are returned
29
What Traits are available?
• Weight:
– Birth
– Weaning
– Post Weaning
– Yearling/hogget
• Carcass:
– Eye muscle
– Fat depth
• Fleece:
– GFW
– Curvature CV
– Fiber Diameter
• Reproduction:
– NLB
– NLW
• Fecal Egg Count
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What Traits are available?
• Production Index-
– Combines multiple traits into 1 figure
• USA Range
• USA Maternal
• Carcass Plus
• USA Hair
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How to Start - Step 1
• Make a commitment to improvement
– Decision to lead the sheep industry in productivity improvement
• Develop a plan for genetic improvement
Structure for Genetic Improvement
• Seedstock and purebred producers enroll in NSIP
– Use EBVs to isolate genes for profitability
• Commercial Producers then use those genetics to efficiently and profitably produce lamb
Analyze Production
• Quantify current production level:
– Number of lambs born/ewe
– Number of lambs weaned/ewe
– Average weaning weight of lambs
– Average post weaning growth (ADG)
– Loin eye area and back fat thickness
NLB 1.2
NLW 0.8
WWT 62
GFW 8.5
Set Goals
• Establish a goal for improvement of each trait
• Prioritize importance of each goal for profit
Trait Current Goal Priority
NLB 1.2 2.0 2
NLW 0.8 2.0 1
WWT 62 68 3
GFW 6.5 8.5 4
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
• Choose rams that will produce daughters to meet our goals
• Priority 1.-select ram in top 10% of breed for that trait
• Priority 2.-select ram in top 20% of breed
• Priority 3.-select ram in top 25% of breed
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%
NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%
NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%
NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
• Once we have a highly productive ewe flock, we can cross breed with terminal sires selected for growth and carcass
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
Not a Silver Bullet
• Visual appraisal of ram for:
– Sound feet and legs, free of foot rot
– Correct mouth structure
– Breeding soundness exam
– Health status and susceptibility
• Scrapie
• OPP
• Spider
Not a Silver Bullet
• Does not replace good management
– Breeding Program
• Including cross breeding!
– Nutrition
– Marketing
46
Does it Work?
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
Lam
bs
Bo
rn E
BV
(%
)
Targhee Reproduction
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014We
anin
g an
d M
ate
rnal
W
ean
ing
We
igh
t EB
Vs
(lb
)
Targhee Growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Fle
ece
We
igh
t an
d F
ibe
r D
iam
ete
r EB
Vs
Targhee Wool
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
105.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USA
Ran
ge E
BV
s ($
)
Western Range Index
47
Genetic Progress
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
Lam
bs
Bo
rn a
nd
W
ean
ed
EB
Vs
Year
Polypay Reproduction
NLB (%)
NLW (%)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
We
anin
g an
d M
ate
rnal
W
ean
ing
We
igh
t EB
Vs
Year
Polypay Growth
WW (lb)
MWW (lb)
48
14 extra lambs/100 ewes lambing!
1.75 pounds heavier @ 60 days=201 more lbs of lamb!
Genetic Progress
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
We
anin
g an
d P
ost
we
anin
g W
eig
ht
EBV
s
Year
Suffolk Growth
WW (lb)
PWW (lb)
-0.0350
-0.0300
-0.0250
-0.0200
-0.0150
-0.0100
-0.0050
0.0000
0.0050
0.0100
0.0150
Eye
Mu
scle
an
d F
at D
ep
th E
BV
s
Year
Suffolk Carcass
EMD (in)
Fat (in)
49
Conclusion
• This method is designed to:
– Reduce risks associated with ram selection
– Expedite genetic progress
– Increase productivity
Visit www.nsip.org for more information including percentile and elite sire reports
Thank you!
• Questions?
• Paid for in part by the American Sheep Industry
Analyze Production
• Flock and Breed basis
• Quantify current production level:
– Number of lambs born/ewe
– Number of lambs weaned/ewe
– Average weaning weight of lambs
– Average post weaning growth (ADG)
– Fleece weight and quality characteristics
NLB 1.2
WWT 62
GFW 8.5
Trait Current Goal Priority
NLB 1.2 2.0 1
WWT 62 68 2
GFW 6.5 8.5 3
Set Goals
• Establish a goal for improvement of each trait
• Prioritize importance of each goal for profit
Develop a Breeding Plan
• Focused on genetic improvement for profitability
• Use EBVs to facilitate selection decisions
• Facilitate ease of data collection
– Contemporary group structure
• Consortium goals
Use EBVs in Selection
• Start with Production Indexes
– Combine multiple traits into one value
– Maternal-USA Maternal
– Terminal-Carcass Plus
– Range-USA Range
– Hair-USA Hair
– Select from top 40% of the index
Use EBVs in Selection
Use EBVs in Selection
http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf
Use EBVs in Selection
Use EBVs in Selection
• Select for individual traits
– Based on priority of goals
• Priority 1.-select ram in top 10% of breed for that trait
• Priority 2.-select ram in top 20% of breed
• Priority 3.-select ram in top 25% of breed
Use EBVs in Selection
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 2 Top 20%
GFW 6.5 8.5 3 Top 25%
http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 2 Top 20%
GFW 6.5 8.5 3 Top 25%
Use EBVs in Selection
http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf
Use EBVs in Selection
• Prioritizing selection pressure on individual traits will expedite genetic progress
• Priority should be placed on economically important traits
“Common Sense Traits”
• Visual appraisal of ram for:
– Sound feet and legs, free of foot rot
– Correct mouth structure
– Breeding soundness exam
– Health status and susceptibility
• Scrapie
• OPP
• Spider
Not a Silver Bullet
• Does not replace good management
– Breeding Program
• Including cross breeding!
– Nutrition
– Marketing
68
Does it Work?
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
Lam
bs
Bo
rn E
BV
(%
)
Targhee Reproduction
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014We
anin
g an
d M
ate
rnal
W
ean
ing
We
igh
t EB
Vs
(lb
)
Targhee Growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Fle
ece
We
igh
t an
d F
ibe
r D
iam
ete
r EB
Vs
Targhee Wool
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
105.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USA
Ran
ge E
BV
s ($
)
Western Range Index
69
Genetic Progress
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
Lam
bs
Bo
rn a
nd
W
ean
ed
EB
Vs
Year
Polypay Reproduction
NLB (%)
NLW (%)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
We
anin
g an
d M
ate
rnal
W
ean
ing
We
igh
t EB
Vs
Year
Polypay Growth
WW (lb)
MWW (lb)
70
14 extra lambs/100 ewes lambing!
1.75 pounds heavier @ 60 days=201 more lbs of lamb!
Genetic Progress
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
We
anin
g an
d P
ost
we
anin
g W
eig
ht
EBV
s
Year
Suffolk Growth
WW (lb)
PWW (lb)
-0.0350
-0.0300
-0.0250
-0.0200
-0.0150
-0.0100
-0.0050
0.0000
0.0050
0.0100
0.0150
Eye
Mu
scle
an
d F
at D
ep
th E
BV
s
Year
Suffolk Carcass
EMD (in)
Fat (in)
71
Conclusion
• This method is designed to:
– Reduce risks associated with ram selection
– Expedite genetic progress
– Increase productivity
Visit www.nsip.org for more information including percentile and elite sire reports
Thank you!
• Questions?
• Paid for in part by the American Sheep Industry
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%
NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%
http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf