The Post-2015 Global Development Agenda and the EU

I-2DP ColloquiumAccra

James Mackie, Senior Advisor EU Development Policy

23 April 2015

The Post-2015 Global Development Agenda

and the EU

• Some Propositions• Post-2015 Agenda – process so far

• UN process on post-2015• The Agenda

• EU interest in MDGs and now post-2015• EU Development policy• EU ODA levels• EU positions for post-2015• Moving beyond the MDGs• Financing for Development• Likely outcomes

Outline

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1. Agreement on value of a global development agenda

2. Yet there is core dilemma:• Limitations of MDGs• Scale & complexity of SDG agenda

1. Europe continues to support:• Need for international development• Willing to tackle global challenges• Multilateral and collective approach

1. But Europeans also• Unsure of wider international support• Want to move on from North-South model

Some propositions

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• Extensive consultations at national level• High-Level Panel Report – June 2013• OWG – Proposals on SDGs – July 2014• ICESDF – Report on finance – Aug 2014• UNSG Synthesis Report, Nov 2014• January 2015: negotiating process started• UN processes

• Negotiating in Blocks: G77+China & EU

• EU engagement• Various communications DEVCO+ENV• European Reports on Development

• 2013 – Post-MDG agenda• 2015 – Finance & development

Post-2015 process to date

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General agreement seems to exist on:

1.Sustainable development• Social agenda not enough on its own• All 3 pillars: social, economic & environmental

1.Transformative change• Tackle causes not just symptoms

1.Universality• MDGs were about development in South• SDG agenda is about both North and South

Can this be sustained & will it work?

At this stage in process

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• UN High-Level Panel conclusions – June 2013• Chairs: Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Susilo Bambang

Yudhoyono, David Cameron

• Proposed a universal agenda with five big ‘transformative shifts’:1. Leave no-one behind2. Put sustainable development at the core3. Transform economies for jobs and inclusive

growth4. Build peace & effective, open and accountable

institutions for all5. Forge a new global partnership

Transformative agenda

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1.End poverty2.Achieve food security and improved nutrition3.Ensure healthy lives and well-being4.Inclusive and equitable education5.Gender equality and empower women and girls6.Availability of water & sanitation7.Affordable, reliable & sustainable energy8.Inclusive & sustainable growth9.Resilient infrastructure, inclusive industrialisation10.Reduce inequality within & among countries11.Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient & sustainable12.Sustainable consumption & production13.Urgent action to combat climate change14.Sustainable use of oceans, seas & marine resources15.Sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems16.Peaceful & inclusive societies, justice for all, inclusive

institutions17.Strengthen finance, Means of Implementation, global

partnership & PCSDGo

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Drivers of changes in EU thinking since 2000

• Agreement on objectives – the MDGs• Culmination of series of UN conferences in 1990s

• Scale – Monterrey Consensus – 2002• Doubling of ODA levels by 2015

• Approach – how to improve results?• Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness 2005, AAA, Busan

• Motivation – changing geo-political priorities • Concern with security since 9/11• New concerns with natural resources …

• New actors – China, India, Korea, Turkey…• More recently other emerging issues:

• Growing proactiveness of partner countries … • New thinking on poverty and on aid itself• Post-2015 – move to International Cooperation? Page 8

EU Development Policy

• European Consensus on Development 2005– Principles: ownership, partnership, dialogue, work

with variety of actors including CS and private sector – Poverty focus, achieve MDGs, More Aid, Better Aid …– Cross-cutting issues: gender, environment, Human

Rights, rights of children, indigenous peoples, combating HIV/AIDS …

– Policy coherence for development (PCD) – Joint EU action: coordination & complementarity

• Agenda for Change 2011• Improve impact – concentrate on two priority areas: (i)

governance and (ii) inclusive growth• Ensure best value for money – target resources,

withdraw from some countries, coordinated action and PCD

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EU Member States - ODA

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Performance against target: EU Member States(EU Accountability Report, 2014)

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between 2011 and 2012. Sixteen Member States171 increased their ODA in 2013 in nominal terms, amounting to a total of EUR 4.15 billion. This growth was largely attributable to significant ODA budget increases in the United Kingdom (representing alone 64% of the total gross increase). The UK managed to increase ODA while cutting its budget deficit at the same time, allowing its ODA/GNI ratio to reach 0.72% in 2013. Another fifth of the increase of EU collective ODA was due to increases in Germany (13% of total gross increase), Sweden (8%), and Italy (8%). At the same time, twelve Member States172 reduced their ODA in nominal terms, by a total of EUR 1.22 billion. France counts for two thirds of the reduction and the Netherlands for one sixth.

As shown in figure 4.2.3b, ten Member States173 increased their ODA/GNI ratio between 2012 and 2013, ten decreased it, and eight kept it unchanged.

Looking at overall developments since 2004, five Member States174now have lower ODA/GNI ratios than at the beginning of the period under consideration. Three175 among them had also ODA volumes at current prices that were lower in 2013 than in 2004. Only one Member State (UK) has already surpassed its 2015 target by doubling its ODA/GNI ratio from 0.36 in 2004 to 0.72 in 2013, while three (DK, LU, SE) had ratios above the 2015 collective target of 0.7 % both at the beginning and the end of the period. The remaining nineteen Member States have yet to reach their 2015 targets. No Member State that has not yet reached its 2015 target expects to be able to do so on time.

Figure 4.2.3b – Gap between 2015 targets and 2013 results 176

171 AT, BG, HR, DK, EE, FI, DE, IT, LV, LU, PL, SK, SL, ES, SE, UK 172 BE, CY, CZ, FR, EL, HU, IE, LT, MT, NL, PT, RO 173 BG, DE, DK, EE, FI, HR, IT, PL, SE, UK 174FR, EL, NL, PT, ES 175EL, PT, ES 176The direction of the arrows was determined based on changes of at least 0.01% after rounding both the 2012 and 2011 ratios to the second decimal.

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ODA/GNI - 1995-2011 Performance of DAC donors

12Source: DAC & 2012 EU Accountability Report

EU Donor Atlas 2008

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• Built a joint EU position (EU+MS, Dev+Env) • Committed to multilateral approach New Global Partnership [COM, 4 Feb 2015]

should be based on: • Shared responsibility, mutual accountability

& respective capacity• Cover 3 pillars of sustainable development

• Universality principle accepted • Support for 0.7% ODA/GNI target but wants

other parties to make commitments too• Aid should be targeted and effectively used • Good policy and PCD (policy coherence for

development) is vital• Monitoring, accountability & review system

EU position on post-2015

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• European Reports on Development• Independent reports based on research• Financed by European Commission and some

member states

• ERD 2013: Post-2015: Global Action for an Inclusive & Sustainable Future

• ERD 2015: Combining Finance & Policies for a Transformative post-2015 Global Development Agenda

• ERD 2015 to be launched on 4 May, Brussels • All documents including background papers

and case studies on: www.erd-report.eu

The ERD

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• Unprecedented mobilisation of collective action• Yet ownership of agenda very variable

• Pushed aid towards social sectors• Poverty did go down, but aid not only reason• Inequalities increased

• Both nationally and internationally

• Lack of emphasis on economic growth and productive sectors

• Sustainability issues not tackled• Global partnership

• Did not materialise in various areas (e.g. trade, climate change, etc.)

• ODA target not met though levels did go up

ERD 2013 – Lessons from the MDGs

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• Dramatic global fall in extreme poverty … • Yet 1.2bn people still poor

• Measurement: need to use both international & national poverty lines

• Inequality needs to become an explicit focus• Reduce through: fiscal measures, social

protection policies …• Group based inequalities – often very persistent

• Multidimensionality – look at wider range of issues & cumulative effect

• Vulnerability – take a dynamic view• Sustainability – Poor exposed most + think of

future generations• Poor peoples’ own experience – well-being

approaches

Understanding poverty better

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ERD 2013 - Beyond Aid & Beyond MDGs

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• A transformative agenda - wider and more structurally transformative approach

• National ownership is key - more careful attention to how global goals relate to national policy needs and targets

• Scale up global collective action on: 1. International finance, trade, migration and

climate change 2. Policy Coherence for Development 3. Continue to increase both level and

effectiveness of aid

ERD 2013 - Key Messages

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• Beyond MDGs:• Sustainable development integrated agenda•Start from enablers of transformative change

• Beyond Aid:•Consider all forms of development finance and means of implementation •Policies for mobilisation and effective use of finance•Importance of PCD / PCSD – effect of other policies on development•Global collective action on a package of international and national measures

Starting point for ERD 2015

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Consider policy and finance to enable a transformative post-2015 agenda

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Consider all financial resources for sustainable development

Trends in finance to developing countries ($ billion, 2011 prices), 2002–2011

Sources: (See report) IMF, OECD, WDI, etc.22

Composition of finance varies by level of income (% of GDP)

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Domestic private financeInternational private financeDomestic public finance

Domestic public financeDomestic private financeInternational private finance

Domestic public financeInternational public finance

International public finance

Level of income

Domestic private financeInternational private finance

…typical evolution in dominant sources of finance sources:

Bangladesh 2000-2012 ($):-GDP up by 150%-Aid up by 75%-Tax revenues up by 280%

Indonesia: oil revenues pre 1986. After fall in oil price 1986: -FDI in manufacturing / services -From foreign to domestic debt

Source: ERD illustrations on Bangladesh, Ecuador, Indonesia, Mauritius, Moldova, and TanzaniaPage 24

ERD 2015 – Main Messages

1. There are many sources of finance which tend to vary by level of income and type of enabler

2. Policy matters: finance important but not enough; essential to encourage appropriate policies for effective use and mobilisation:• Domestic policy and financial

frameworks for mobilising domestic resources and facilitating their effective use for sustainable development

• A conducive global policy environment• International public finance to be used in

a more focused and catalytic manner1. Need for a monitoring and accountability

framework to encourage appropriate action

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Applying the universality principle• Implies that goals and targets are

relevant to all governments and actors• Three types of targets:

• Type I - Domestic development Outcomes (e.g. eradicate poverty, reduce violence)

• Type II - Responsibilities to assist other countries (e.g. ODA, specific ‘beyond aid’ policies)

• Type III - Responsibilities for supporting progress towards global common goods (fair international systems, sustainable consumption/production, etc.)

• Universality implies differentiation• What can each contribute?

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• ODA levels – further increases unlikely as long as financial crisis continues

• Targeting of aid • LDCs & fragile states • Focus on catalytic use of ODA

• Revision of European Consensus in 2016?• Integration of development policies with

other policies? • One ‘global strategy’ with development

policy as one element?• Universality – how far will EU go internally?

Impact of post-2015 on EU Development policy

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• UN block system for negotiations not ideal for building coalitions of the willing• G77+China and the EU are probably key

• Complication of having separate tracks for climate change and trade

• FFD Addis – will it move beyond ODA?• What other commitments to expect?

• EU negotiators apparently feel• Unhappy with sequencing of conferences:

Finance before agenda• China playing a constructive role• Africa also better organised, clearer than in

past & not just interested in ODA

The UN negotiations …

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• Threshold moment – but many potential pitfalls …

• Will coalitions emerge?• SDG agenda – necessary, but with so many

goals and targets unlikely to work like MDGs• Monitoring and accountability is key• FFD Addis – need a range of contributions

(finance and policies) on the table • UNGA – will unity on the agenda seen in

2014 be maintained?• COP21, Paris – will enough parties agree to

make commitments?• EU committed but looking for friends

Conclusions

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Thank [email protected]

www.slideshare.net/ecdpm

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