The POLES model - Prospective Outlook for Long-Term Energy Scenarios – LAMP meeting October 2012 Antonio Soria Head of Unit Economics of Energy, Climate Change and Transport Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Joint Research Centre European Commission
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The POLES model - Prospective Outlook for Long-Term Energy
Scenarios –
LAMP meeting October 2012
Antonio Soria
Head of Unit
Economics of Energy, Climate Change and Transport Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Joint Research Centre
European Commission
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Presentation overview
I. The JRC and the ECCET unit
II. The POLES model
a. Introduction
b. Scope
c. Methodology
d. Example of policy support
III. LAMP scenario results
IV. Ideas on LAMP project evolution
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… is to provide customer-driven scientific and technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of EU policies. As a service of the European Commission, the JRC functions as a reference centre of science and technology for the Union.
Close to the policy-making process, it serves the common interest of the Member States, while being independent of special interests, whether private or national.
The Mission of the Joint Research Centre
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ECCET Unit Mission Statement
To create and maintain a pole of expertise in policy analysis related to energy, transport and climate change.
• A solid toolbox of quantitative modeling instruments, databases and analytical capabilities has been created.
• To apply this repository of know-how for policy studies internal to the Commission in these fields
• Develop capabilities to carry out Cost-Benefit Analyses and improve its robustness
To play a role as internal Commission service in the interface between science and policy
Focus on EU 2020 priorities (Resource Efficient Europe, Innovation Union, Industrial Policy for Globalisation)
Active in three interrelated areas (transport, energy, climate), looking into cross-sectoral issues, aiming for a comprehensive understanding of complex issues related to the carbon economy and the impacts of climate change.
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The POLES Model
A world simulation model for the analysis of energy systems and their global environmental impacts to 2050
Typical applications • Global energy demand/
supply scenarios … with high regional detail
• Global GHG emission reduction pathways
• Technology outlooks
• Impacts of technological change and R&D
Prospective Outlook on Long Term Energy Systems
Possible trajectories of global GHG emission reductions
Source: POLES scenarios for EC Low-Carbon Roadmap 2050
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The POLES Model Regional scope
• 57 regions/countries with full energy balance:
• Modules for primary energy supply (map below for oil supply):
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• Explicit representation of energy demand sectors
Energy-intensive industries (steel,
non-metallic mineral, chemical) and
non energy-intensive industries
Households, residential, agriculture
Transport (road, rail, air, other)
• Extensive set of policies represented Taxes, subsidies, Tradable Permits or
certificates
Technology supporting policies
Energy/Environmental policy
instruments including standards
The POLES Model Sectoral coverage and policy instruments
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gt
CO
2
Energy savings
Fossil fuel switch
Renewable energies
Nuclear energy
Carbon sequestration
GHG reduction scenario
avoi
ded
emis
sion
s
Decomposition of global CO2 emission reductions between base/reduction case
Source: POLES model; Russ et al., 2007
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• Hybrid concept Bottom-up (engineering, explicit technology choices)
Top-down (microeconomic foundation of economic decisions by agent,
elastic demand)
• Market-oriented: market equilibrium prices drive energy balancing of demand and supply per energy commodity
Demand is function of price (via demand modules that use GDP,
population and price as drivers of energy demand)
Supply equals demand
Supply a function of price (constrained by resource limits)
• Lagged price effects (dynamic system)
The POLES Model Methodology
Global partial equilibrium model simulating the entire energy system, both demand and supply
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The POLES Model Simulation
Industries • EE: Steel, Cement, Chemistry • Other industry Services and Urban development Mobility needs
1. Primary Energy Demand (57 countries/regions) • Final Energy Demand • Energy Technology Dynamics Module • New & Renewable Energies • Electricity & Transf. System • Global and sectoral CO2 emissions
3. World Energy Prices (1-3 regional markets)
International Energy Prices
2. Fuel Supply and Trade • Oil (80 producers) • Coal (80 producers) • Gas (70 producers) • Biomass (solid and liquid, 57)
Start of simulation
End of simulation
Exogenous hypotheses GDP, Population Ultimate energy resources Policies
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The POLES Model ‘vertical integration’
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The POLES Model ‘horizontal integration’
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The POLES Model Modelling for EC policy support
Modelling to support EU policy formulation in the area of energy and climate change
Context:
• European Union is committed to contribute to global GHG emission reduction
• The 2ºC objective translates in a global ambition level of halving GHG emissions by
2050 compared to 1990
• IPCC AR4 indicates for developed countries a range of 80 to 95% GHG reductions by
2050 vs 1990 to be in-line with the 2º objective.
EU developed a Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050
• Roadmap looks at EU decarbonisation, how should the EU prepare itself internally over
the 2010 – 2050 time horizon.
• Aim of the global modelling is to assess how much reductions should be achieved
domestically.
• Models used cover all GHG and sectors: POLES: energy system and industrial emissions G4M + GLOBIOM: land use (agriculture, forestry) GEM-E3 : multi-sector, economic impacts
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EU and developed country objec3ve: 80 to 95% reduc3ons largely through domes3c measures:
around -‐80% internal reduc1ons in 2050 compared to 1990
Developing Countries: -‐5% internal reduc1ons by 2050 compared to 1990 -‐ 80% internal reduc1ons by 2050 compared to business as usual
The POLES Model Modelling for EC policy support
Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050
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LAMP project 1st results
CO2 Emissions - World
CO2 Emissions – Latin America
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LAMP project 1st results
CO2 Emissions per capita Scenario 1a, 2050
Scenario 2c, 2050
2000
Scenario 2a, 2050
0
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
9.5
13.5
17.5
20
CO2 per capita [t of CO2]
0
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
9.5
13.5
17.5
20
0
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
9.5
13.5
17.5
20
CO2 per capita [t of CO2]
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LAMP project 1st results
Primary energy consumption at World level
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LAMP project 1st results
Primary energy consumption in Latin America
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LAMP project 1st results
Electricity generation at World level
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LAMP project 1st results
Electricity generation in Latin America
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• Renewable energies in LA Potentials and costs Policies and targets in place and in pipeline Exploitation of biomass and hydro resources
• Oil and gas supply forecasts in LA Resource development, costs Environmental impacts
LAMP project Ideas
Thank you!
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