NIGERIA… “Opportuni1es”
NIGERIA… “Opportuni1es”
The Flow
• A Snapshot of Global Outlook
• Nigeria – A Bird’s Eye View
• Kaleidoscope – The Youth Market
Global Outlook
2010 -‐ Outlook
• The good news about 2010 is that the world will (beJer) emerge from recession and post-‐crisis economic landscape will become clearer.
• Businesses…..can at least begin to focus on strategies for future growth, rather than tacPcs for short-‐term survival.
• ……there will be an increasing emphasis on emerging markets, many of which will power ahead.
• It is a year for businesses to be ambi1ous….not withdraw…..
What exactly is on their mind???
NIGERIA Green White Gold
Demographics
Land Space: 923,768 Sq Km (slightly more than twice the size
of California)
EsEmated PopulaEon : 152 Million (2009)
• Over 70% of popula/on is under
30 years
Media Age: 18
Pop. Growth Rate: 2.83%
Urban Growth Rate: 5.3%
Industrial Growth: 2.4%
AGE GRPPopulation both sexes
Population Male
Population Female
Percent Both
Sexes Percent
MalePercent Female
Total (All Ages) 128,765,768 65,108,289 63,657,479 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%0 - 4 21,304,234 10,731,929 10,572,305 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%5 - 9 17,685,859 8,911,126 8,774,733 13.7% 13.7% 13.8%
10 - 14 15,518,616 7,822,125 7,696,491 12.1% 12.0% 12.1%15 - 19 13,615,584 6,867,512 6,748,072 10.6% 10.5% 10.6%20 - 24 12,201,811 6,167,626 6,034,185 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%25 - 29 10,284,594 5,235,608 5,048,986 8.0% 8.0% 7.9%30 - 34 8,135,658 4,205,987 3,929,671 6.3% 6.5% 6.2%35 - 39 6,634,150 3,427,358 3,206,792 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%40 - 44 5,488,984 2,814,948 2,674,036 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%45 - 49 4,502,344 2,314,317 2,188,027 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%50 - 54 3,774,988 1,908,069 1,866,919 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%55 - 59 3,216,615 1,604,919 1,611,696 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%60 - 64 2,472,275 1,222,647 1,249,628 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%65 - 69 1,774,303 860,160 914,143 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%70 - 74 1,164,689 554,218 610,471 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%75 - 79 642,574 300,605 341,969 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
80+ 348,490 159,135 189,355 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Addressable Urban Market
of 58m by 2010 @ 2.4%
Growth Rate
40.1% or 51m Addressable
Market
Over 70% or 90.6m below
30Yrs!
Source : U.S. Census Bureau, International Database – 2008Est.
Demographics Over 70% of populaEon is under 30 years
Socio-‐Economic Profile
LSM Group % Household Monthly Income %
LSM 1 (E) 3.7 Less than N5,000 0.6
LSM 2 (E) 4.5 5,000 – 20,000 9.8
LSM 3 (D) 1.7 20,000 – 40,000 19.3
LSM 4 (D) 29.4 40,000 – 60,000 10.9
LSM 5 (D) 15.7 60,000 – 80,000 5.4
LSM 6 (C2) 17.5 80,000 – 100,000 2.3
LSM 7 (C2) 8.2 100,000 – 140,000 0.9
LSM 8 (C2) 5.8 140,000 – 200,000 0.7
LSM 9 (C1) 5.9 200,000+ 7.1
LSM 10 (C1) 2.9 Refused/Unknown 43.0
LSM 11 (B) 3.9
LSM 12 (A) 1.0
The addressable market for the target category is the C1C2D, with an average income of between NGN50, 000 – NGN250, 000.
This is an optimistic market for uptake of disposables, especially hygiene based products.
A Bird’s Eye View • Economy is largely agrarian, with around 60% of Nigerians
working in the agricultural sector.
• InflaPon rate was maintained on single digit for 24 months (Oct 2006 – Sept 2008).
• It has since then grown as high as 13.4% (July 2009). • The Consumer Price Index as at July 2009, ranges between
N180.00 – N240.00.
• Nigeria has one of the fastest growing telecomms market in the major emerging market (i.e. MTN, Zain, Globacom & E/salat)
The Emerging Consumer
Psychologically…..
Time Magazine (Dec 2008) rated Nigerians as the happiest people on the Earth…the boundless opPmism in the face of economic instability is almost mythical in nature.
FASHION
MUSIC
Nigerian Music Stars are dominating the African Music Scene and exporting Nigerian music to the rest of the World
MUSIC Music has now become a great tool for shaping consumer outlook and behaviour across Nigerian.
MINIPRENEURS
Technology is enabling a new breed of entrepreneurs
MIY | MAKE IT YOURSELF
IT and Telecommunications are empowering new knowledge creating a new breed of ‘producers’, creating Open Innovation
Evolu1on of Consumer Needs
Experiences
Services
Goods
Commodities
Render
Improve
Control
Supply
Authenticity
Quality
Costs
Availability
Economic Output
Business Imperative
Consumer Sensibility
Source: Joseph Pine, TED Talks 2009
Rendering Authen1city
This above all: to thine own self be true, And it must follow, as the night the day, Thou canst not then be false to any man.
- William Shakespeare
WHEN YOUR Brand Truth MARRIES YOUR Brand Promise, THEY GIVE BIRTH TO CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT/RELEVANCE.
Rendering Authen1city
IS what it says it is
Real Real
Fake Real Fake Fake
Real Fake
Is NOT what it says it is
IS true to itself Is NOT true to itself
Ideal Positioning
A Look at the Hygiene Disposables (HD) Market
Hygiene Disposables
Feminine Care
Baby Care
Menstrual Pads
Facial Wipes
Baby Diapers
Baby Wipes
Panty Liners
A market defined by the need to maintain personal hygiene in a
decent manner…
The Players…
Tampons & Other Brands
A Snapshot of PossibiliPes • The combined market for Hygiene Disposables (HD) – covering Feminine Care and Baby Care – also have significant potenPal.
• The market for Feminine Care is the key market driving HD in Nigeria and it has grown between 2001-‐2006, at an average annual rate of 14.1%.
• Presently the leading player in the market is Procter & Gamble (P&G), followed by Johnson & Johnson and Kimberly-‐Clark CorporaPon .
Source: Datamonitor Report on Feminine Care in Nigeria, 2009
Birth rate: 36.65 births/1,000 population (2009 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook, Feb 2010
Year Birth rate Rank Percent Change Date of Information
2003 38.75 30 2003 est.
2004 40.65 21 4.90 % 2004 est.
2005 40.65 22 0.00 % 2005 est.
2006 40.43 21 -0.54 % 2006 est.
2007 40.2 20 -0.57 % 2007 est.
2008 37.23 31 -7.39 % 2008 est.
2009 36.65 30 -1.56 % 2009 est.
2010 36.65 28 0.00 % 2009 est.
Source: CIA World Factbook, Feb 2010
Total fertility rate (TFR): 4.91 children born/woman (2009 est.)
Approx. 5 kids/female, in a lifetime
Source: CIA World Factbook, Feb 2010
Year Total fertility rate Rank Percent Change Date of Information
2003 5.4 30 2003 est.
2004 5.53 24 2.41 % 2004 est.
2005 5.53 23 0.00 % 2005 est.
2006 5.49 23 -0.72 % 2006 est.
2007 5.45 22 -0.73 % 2007 est.
2008 5.01 32 -8.07 % 2008 est.
2009 4.91 32 -2.00 % 2009 est.
2010 4.91 31 0.00 % 2009 est.
Source: CIA World Factbook, Feb 2010
AGE GRPPopulation both sexes
Population Male
Population Female
Percent Both
Sexes Percent
MalePercent Female
Total (All Ages) 128,765,768 65,108,289 63,657,479 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%0 - 4 21,304,234 10,731,929 10,572,305 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%5 - 9 17,685,859 8,911,126 8,774,733 13.7% 13.7% 13.8%
10 - 14 15,518,616 7,822,125 7,696,491 12.1% 12.0% 12.1%15 - 19 13,615,584 6,867,512 6,748,072 10.6% 10.5% 10.6%20 - 24 12,201,811 6,167,626 6,034,185 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%25 - 29 10,284,594 5,235,608 5,048,986 8.0% 8.0% 7.9%30 - 34 8,135,658 4,205,987 3,929,671 6.3% 6.5% 6.2%35 - 39 6,634,150 3,427,358 3,206,792 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%40 - 44 5,488,984 2,814,948 2,674,036 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%45 - 49 4,502,344 2,314,317 2,188,027 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%50 - 54 3,774,988 1,908,069 1,866,919 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%55 - 59 3,216,615 1,604,919 1,611,696 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%60 - 64 2,472,275 1,222,647 1,249,628 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%65 - 69 1,774,303 860,160 914,143 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%70 - 74 1,164,689 554,218 610,471 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%75 - 79 642,574 300,605 341,969 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
80+ 348,490 159,135 189,355 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
Huge Market
Potential
With a fairly high
frequency of usage…
Approx 59% of Females
or 38m between
10 - 49Yrs!
Source : U.S. Census Bureau, International Database – 2008Est.
Demographics – Feminine Care Market
AGE GRPPopulation both sexes
Population Male
Population Female
Percent Both
Sexes Percent
MalePercent Female
Total (All Ages) 128,765,768 65,108,289 63,657,479 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%0 - 4 21,304,234 10,731,929 10,572,305 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%5 - 9 17,685,859 8,911,126 8,774,733 13.7% 13.7% 13.8%
10 - 14 15,518,616 7,822,125 7,696,491 12.1% 12.0% 12.1%15 - 19 13,615,584 6,867,512 6,748,072 10.6% 10.5% 10.6%20 - 24 12,201,811 6,167,626 6,034,185 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%25 - 29 10,284,594 5,235,608 5,048,986 8.0% 8.0% 7.9%30 - 34 8,135,658 4,205,987 3,929,671 6.3% 6.5% 6.2%35 - 39 6,634,150 3,427,358 3,206,792 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%40 - 44 5,488,984 2,814,948 2,674,036 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%45 - 49 4,502,344 2,314,317 2,188,027 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%50 - 54 3,774,988 1,908,069 1,866,919 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%55 - 59 3,216,615 1,604,919 1,611,696 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%60 - 64 2,472,275 1,222,647 1,249,628 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%65 - 69 1,774,303 860,160 914,143 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%70 - 74 1,164,689 554,218 610,471 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%75 - 79 642,574 300,605 341,969 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
80+ 348,490 159,135 189,355 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
Huge Market
Potential
@ 2 average births
per female = 42m
(optimistic)
Source : U.S. Census Bureau, International Database – 2008Est.
Demographics – Baby Care Market
Approx 33% of Females
or 21m between
20 - 44Yrs!
• At a Pme when the market was dominated by 350gm can by Peak Milk, the challenge was one of access.
• A large percentage of consumers could not access milk, due the level of their disposable income.
• Promasidor solved the problem of access, through innovaPve packaging strategy.
• This enabled them to not only enter the market, they also grew it.
A Possible Entry Strategy… (A Case Study of Cowbell)
• In this Hygiene Disposables market, accessibility is also an issue.
• An untapped market base, the C1C2D, are not able to conveniently access products in this category.
• The entry strategy here should be built on Pricing combined with Top-‐of-‐the-‐Standard posiPoning.
• This will give the confidence derived from Access Quality.
A Possible Entry Strategy… (Learnings from Cowbell)
Let’s Discuss….