The People’s Republic of China Sarah Forsyth March 2, 2005 ES 338.

The People’s Republic of The People’s Republic of ChinaChina

Sarah ForsythSarah Forsyth

March 2, 2005March 2, 2005

ES 338ES 338

Physical AspectsPhysical Aspects

Divided into 23 provinces, Divided into 23 provinces, 5 autonomous regions, 4 5 autonomous regions, 4 municipalitiesmunicipalities

Terrain: mountains, Terrain: mountains, plateaus, deserts, deltas, plateaus, deserts, deltas, hills, and plainshills, and plains

Climate: ranges from Climate: ranges from tropical to sub artictropical to sub artic

Area: 9, 596, 960 square Area: 9, 596, 960 square km (4km (4thth largest country) largest country)

Population: Population: 1,273,111,2901,273,111,290

EconomyEconomy Communist StateCommunist State High rate of growthHigh rate of growth GDP per capita: $3,600 (2000)GDP per capita: $3,600 (2000) GDP: 15% agriculture, 50% GDP: 15% agriculture, 50%

industry, 35% servicesindustry, 35% services In contrast the work force is: In contrast the work force is:

50% agriculture, 24% industry, 50% agriculture, 24% industry, and 26% servicesand 26% services

Industries: coal, iron, steel, Industries: coal, iron, steel, building machines, petroleum, building machines, petroleum, cement, textiles, fertilizers, cement, textiles, fertilizers, toys, automobiles, electronicstoys, automobiles, electronics

Main Crops: wheat, rice, Main Crops: wheat, rice, potatoes, sorghumpotatoes, sorghum

CoalCoal Electric Power: 79.8% fossil Electric Power: 79.8% fossil

fuel, 18.98% hydropower, fuel, 18.98% hydropower, 1.2% nuclear power1.2% nuclear power

1976 – 1995 use of coal 1976 – 1995 use of coal increased from 69.9% to 78% increased from 69.9% to 78% while the amount of energy while the amount of energy used from 1970 t0 1990 used from 1970 t0 1990 increased 208 timesincreased 208 times

Currently emits second largest Currently emits second largest amount of carbon dioxideamount of carbon dioxide

Predicted by 2020 to surpass Predicted by 2020 to surpass the U.S. in the amount of CO2 the U.S. in the amount of CO2 emissions releasedemissions released

Energy Use InefficienciesEnergy Use Inefficiencies

ChinaChina Boilers: 50-60% Boilers: 50-60%

efficientefficient Coal stoves: 10-15% Coal stoves: 10-15%

efficientefficient 80% of coal is 80% of coal is

unwashed (health unwashed (health problems)problems)

Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries Boilers: 90% efficientBoilers: 90% efficient

Natural Gas stoves: Natural Gas stoves: 80-95% efficient80-95% efficient

GroupsGroups

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA)Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) State Environmental Protection Agency State Environmental Protection Agency

(SEPA)(SEPA) State Development Planning Commission State Development Planning Commission

(SDPC)(SDPC) Ministry of Science and TechnologyMinistry of Science and Technology National Climate Change Coordination National Climate Change Coordination

Group (NCCCG)Group (NCCCG)

Environmental AwarenessEnvironmental Awareness

““Cultural Revolution” 1966 – 1977Cultural Revolution” 1966 – 1977 1972 attended the UN Conference on the 1972 attended the UN Conference on the

Human Environment in StockholmHuman Environment in Stockholm Pollution became a large problemPollution became a large problem

Build up from unregulated industry growthBuild up from unregulated industry growth Air pollution, Water pollution, deforestation, Air pollution, Water pollution, deforestation,

desertification, soil erosiondesertification, soil erosion Ex: World Bank estimated air pollution Ex: World Bank estimated air pollution

caused 50$ billion per year in 1997caused 50$ billion per year in 1997

80’s and Early 90’s80’s and Early 90’s ““Open Door” policy (1979-1989); particularly during the 80’s Open Door” policy (1979-1989); particularly during the 80’s

awareness in the scientific community arose regarding climate awareness in the scientific community arose regarding climate changechange

1987 PRC Academy of Sciences worked on a study w/ the US 1987 PRC Academy of Sciences worked on a study w/ the US Department of Energy called “Global Climate Change Department of Energy called “Global Climate Change Countermeasures: A Research Report of the Advisory Group” Countermeasures: A Research Report of the Advisory Group” (published in 1991)(published in 1991)

Policies to create and negotiate climate change policyPolicies to create and negotiate climate change policy 1990 recession started – slowed new technology and efforts to use 1990 recession started – slowed new technology and efforts to use

fuel more efficientlyfuel more efficiently 1992 UNCED conference at Rio de Janeiro1992 UNCED conference at Rio de Janeiro

Framework Convention on Climate ChangeFramework Convention on Climate Change China’s concerns:China’s concerns:

• Included uncertainties of climate change scienceIncluded uncertainties of climate change science• Emphasis on the responsibility of Developed countriesEmphasis on the responsibility of Developed countries• SovereigntySovereignty• Technology transfer and funds for developing countriesTechnology transfer and funds for developing countries

1995 COP1 at Berlin1995 COP1 at Berlin Supported the “Berlin Mandate”Supported the “Berlin Mandate”

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol Felt that as a developing country should not have any Felt that as a developing country should not have any

emission regulations or any other requirements which emission regulations or any other requirements which might hurt economic growthmight hurt economic growth

Responsibility of developed countriesResponsibility of developed countries Concentrated interest on “flexible mechanisms”Concentrated interest on “flexible mechanisms”

Originally supported JI, but joined other developing countries to Originally supported JI, but joined other developing countries to disputedispute

CDMCDM• China worried would give Developed countries and advantages China worried would give Developed countries and advantages

because they could use the cheapest projects before developing because they could use the cheapest projects before developing countries needed to cut emissionscountries needed to cut emissions

China felt “flexible mechanisms” might allow developed countries China felt “flexible mechanisms” might allow developed countries to avoid the protocol’s regulationsto avoid the protocol’s regulations

Ratified: August 30, 2002Ratified: August 30, 2002

Later NegotiationsLater Negotiations COP5COP5

Refusal to commit to emissions regulationsRefusal to commit to emissions regulations COP6COP6

Became slightly more supportive of “flexibility mechanisms”Became slightly more supportive of “flexibility mechanisms” Against the use of carbon sinksAgainst the use of carbon sinks

COP7COP7 Higher support of “flexibility mechanisms”Higher support of “flexibility mechanisms” Suggested immediate start of CDM projectsSuggested immediate start of CDM projects

Benefits of “flexibility mechanisms”Benefits of “flexibility mechanisms” Allows for large technological and monetary gains Allows for large technological and monetary gains Japan funds many JI projectsJapan funds many JI projects Availability for CDM projects w/I the country: fuel switch, importing fuel from Availability for CDM projects w/I the country: fuel switch, importing fuel from

Russia, capturing coal-bed methaneRussia, capturing coal-bed methane GEF (Global Environment Facility) GEF (Global Environment Facility) funds technology transfer, energy funds technology transfer, energy

efficiency, projects to reduce GHG emissionsefficiency, projects to reduce GHG emissions PRC receives a large portion of the fundsPRC receives a large portion of the funds 2001 received 17% of the total GEF funds2001 received 17% of the total GEF funds

Driving ForcesDriving Forces

Internal Pollution Problems: especially air and Internal Pollution Problems: especially air and water (acid rain)water (acid rain)

IPCC indicates that climate change would hurt IPCC indicates that climate change would hurt the country’s economy: new water problems, the country’s economy: new water problems, ecosystem damage, forestry and agriculture ecosystem damage, forestry and agriculture damage, increased flooding, coastal settlement damage, increased flooding, coastal settlement damagedamage Appears as a large threat since famines in recent Appears as a large threat since famines in recent

historyhistory Already drought problemsAlready drought problems

PolicyPolicy ““No Regrets” strategyNo Regrets” strategy

Implement GHG limitations and fuel efficiency only if Implement GHG limitations and fuel efficiency only if another benefit existsanother benefit exists

• Economy growthEconomy growth• Health benefits (respiratory diseases and lung cancer large Health benefits (respiratory diseases and lung cancer large

problem in urban areas)problem in urban areas) Fuel switchFuel switch

• Funds allow for building some new nuclear plants and Funds allow for building some new nuclear plants and construction of Three Gorges Dam on Changjiang Riverconstruction of Three Gorges Dam on Changjiang River

• Very costly particularly in comparison to cheap price of coalVery costly particularly in comparison to cheap price of coal Support of using natural gas and coal briquettes Support of using natural gas and coal briquettes

domestically to cut down on use of unwashed coaldomestically to cut down on use of unwashed coal Investment in more efficient boilers in industryInvestment in more efficient boilers in industry

Pressures Driving PolicyPressures Driving Policy

Three main points directing climate change policyThree main points directing climate change policy Active role will allow the country to develop stronger Active role will allow the country to develop stronger

relationships with developed countries and strengthen relationships with developed countries and strengthen relationships w/ developing countries. relationships w/ developing countries.

• Hope that current leadership will lead to future power surrounding Hope that current leadership will lead to future power surrounding the interests of other developing countriesthe interests of other developing countries

Maintaining National SovereigntyMaintaining National Sovereignty• Ensure that China will not be under enforced CO2 emission Ensure that China will not be under enforced CO2 emission

regulations regulations • Worry that such regulations would hurt the development of their Worry that such regulations would hurt the development of their

economyeconomy Belief that Developed Countries are responsible for the majority Belief that Developed Countries are responsible for the majority

of global warming and should take most of the burden of fixing of global warming and should take most of the burden of fixing the problemthe problem