1 The Path to Near-Zero Vehicle Emissions: Applying California’s Experience To China Dr. Alan C. Lloyd Chairman California Air Resources Board And Michael P. Walsh Consultant Beijing, China November 12-13, 2003 HARBIN SHENYANG TIANJIN ÜRÜMQI LANZHOU XI´AN SHANGHAI WUHAN CHENGDU GUANGZHOU LHASA BEIJING Overview Overview California – Air Quality and Emission Reduction Strategy – Status of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Regulation – The California Fuel Cell Partnership – Reducing Climate Change Emissions from Vehicles China – Rapid Vehicle Growth – Environmental & Energy Impacts – The Path Forward- Applying California’s Experience Air Pollution is Widespread Air Pollution is Widespread Days Over State Ozone Standard Days Over State PM10 Standard 0-5 Days >100 Days 6-50 Days 50-100 Days Based on 2000 Monitoring Data Motor Vehicles are Motor Vehicles are Dominant Emission Source Dominant Emission Source Industry & areawide Mobile - 69%
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1
The Path to Near-ZeroVehicle Emissions: Applying California’s Experience To China
Dr. Alan C. LloydChairman
California Air Resources BoardAnd
Michael P. WalshConsultant
Beijing, ChinaNovember 12-13, 2003
HARBIN
SHENYANG
TIANJIN
ÜRÜMQI
LANZHOUXI´AN SHANGHAI
WUHANCHENGDU
GUANGZHOU
LHASA
BEIJING
OverviewOverview
California– Air Quality and Emission Reduction Strategy– Status of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Regulation – The California Fuel Cell Partnership– Reducing Climate Change Emissions from Vehicles
China– Rapid Vehicle Growth– Environmental & Energy Impacts– The Path Forward- Applying California’s Experience
Air Pollution is WidespreadAir Pollution is WidespreadDays Over State Ozone Standard
Days Over State PM10 Standard
0-5 Days >100 Days6-50 Days 50-100 Days
Based on 2000 Monitoring Data
Motor Vehicles are Motor Vehicles are Dominant Emission SourceDominant Emission Source
Industry & areawide
Mobile -69%
2
Many Vehicle Sources are Major Many Vehicle Sources are Major EmittersEmitters
2010 - Los Angeles Air Basin2010 - Los Angeles Air Basin
Reactive OrganicReactive OrganicGasesGases
Oxides of Oxides of NitrogenNitrogen
20%
43%
Off-Road37%
Cars & LDT
Larger Trucks
75%
6%
Off-Road19%
Cars & LDT
Larger Trucks
The ChallengeThe Challenge
22 million cars in CaliforniaAverage age of passenger cars is 10 years
Analysis in 1990 showed that conventional technology would not be sufficientSome part of the fleet had to emit near “zero” levelsLEV/ZEV program adopted
What Has Happened Since What Has Happened Since 1990?1990?Batteries fell short– performance– cost
No direct smog-forming or greenhouse gas emissionsPotential for extremely low lifecycle (“well to wheel”) emissionsBetter fuel economy, greater efficiencyQuiet and smooth operation
6
Transition to Fuel CellsTransition to Fuel Cells
Prototype fuel cell vehicles now being demonstrated
Advanced Technologies CouldHelp Solve These Problems
HARBIN
SHENYANG
TIANJIN
ÜRÜMQI
LANZHOUXI´AN SHANGHAI
WUHANCHENGDU
GUANGZHOU
LHASA
BEIJING
Where Do We Stand in China?
9
Motor Vehicle Production in China 1980 - 2002
Passenger Car
5222
5
443
42
509325
1,453
605
2,069
704
2,334
1,090
3,251
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,500
3,0003,5004,0004,500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002
(in 1000)
Year
US20.8%
Japan17.4%
Germany8.7%
France6.3%
China5.5%
Korea5.3%
Spain4.8%
Canada4.5%
UK3.1%
22 Others23.6%
2002Total: 58972502
US20.4%
Japan17.4%
Germany10.2%
France6.5%
Spain5.1%
Korea4.8%
Canada4.5%
China4.1%
Mexico3.3%
22 Others23.7%
2001Total: 56067817
US22.2%
Japan17.7%
Germany9.6%
France5.8%
Spain5.3%
Canada5.2%
Korea5.0%
China3.5%
Mexico3.3%
20 Others22.4%
2000Total: 57427303
Not Including Motorcycles, Mopeds
Vehicle Production By Country
China Is Now 5th Largest Producer in the World
Shanghai Auto. Industry Co.18.9%
FAW Group Corp.17.9%
Dongfeng Motor Co.13.4%
Changan Automobile Grp.10.5%
Beijing Automotive Industry Grp.5.8%
Harbin Aircraft Mfg.5.5%
Changhe Aircraft Grp.4.9%
Tianjin Auto. Industry Co.3.0%
Jinbei Auto. Co.2.7%
Nanjing Auto Group2.7%
Guangzhou Auto. Industry Grp.2.1%
Jiangling Motors Grp.1.6%
30 Others11.0%
2002Total: 3133900
Top Five CompaniesAlready Produce2/3’s of Vehicles
Motor Vehicle Production By Manufacturer Recent Investments in China’s Vehicle Recent Investments in China’s Vehicle Industry Indicate Substantial Future GrowthIndustry Indicate Substantial Future Growth
FAW – VW; $1 Billion Venture with ToyotaDMC – recent link with Honda;– $1 Billion Venture with Nissan; Peugeot JV
SAIC – joint venture with VW & GM;– Already Largest Car Sales in China; GM-Daewoo JV
Chang’an Automotive Group - Ford Increased Investment By $1.5 Billion
10
Motorcycle Annual Production and SalesMotorcycle Annual Production and Sales
Growth in the Growth in the Number of Cars in Number of Cars in BeijingBeijing
From 0 to 1 million - From 0 to 1 million - 48 years48 yearsFrom 1 to 2 million - From 1 to 2 million - 6.5 years6.5 yearsFrom 2 to 3 million - From 2 to 3 million - est 3 yearsest 3 years
Relative Growth Relative Growth RatesRates
Average Annual Average Annual Growth in Vehicles Growth in Vehicles ~20%/year~20%/yearAverage Annual Average Annual Growth in Road Growth in Road Network Network ~3.5%/year~3.5%/year
Vehicle Growth in Beijing is Vehicle Growth in Beijing is ExplodingExploding
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mill
ions
Tsinghua NAS High NAS Medium NAS Low
Recent Forecasts of Chinese Vehicle Population
Tsinghua Also Predicts About 200 Million MC By 2030
11
Air Pollution Problem is Already Air Pollution Problem is Already SevereSevere
Carbon monoxide(CO)
What pollutants are of concern? What pollutants are of concern?
Asthma Attacks and BronchitisAsthma Attacks and Bronchitis
178,000 Premature178,000 PrematureDeathsDeaths
6,779,000 6,779,000 Emergency Room Emergency Room
VisitsVisits
76,869,000
346,000 For Respiratory Problems
Value of Health DamageAlmost 5% of GDP
Source: World Bank
Carbon Dioxide Emissions From the Carbon Dioxide Emissions From the Road Transport Sector Are Road Transport Sector Are
SkyrocketingSkyrocketing
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO 2 e
mis
sion
(milli
on to
ns)
13
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
0
50
100
150
200
250
Million Tonnes
OtherCrude OilFuel OilDieselKeroseneGasolineLPG
Fuel Consumption Trends in China
17.0922.62
35.47
27.32
36.61
70.27
60.27
69.41
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Million Tons
Oil Imports Have Grown Rapidly in China
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
100
200
300
400
500Million TonsRoad Transport Oil Consumption
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Fraction of Total Oil Consumption
Consumption Fraction
Source: Tsinghua University
Current and Projected Road Transport Oil Demand in China
Road transport oil demand will be over 50% of the total by 2020, and almost 90% by 2030,making it the principal source of oil demand and oil imports at that time.
Efforts in China To Address Urban Air Pollution
Initial Clean Air Strategy DevelopedComplete Lead Phase Out by 2000European Emissions Standards Introduced For Cars & TrucksTax Incentives For Euro 2 Vehicles
Individual Cities Supplementing National Actions
I/M Pilot Being Developed in ShanghaiAlternative Fuels For Buses & TaxisCatalyst Retrofits in Beijing
Eliminated Very Low Octane FuelsEliminated Lead Additives But– MTBE– MMT
Gasoline Aromatics Limited To 40%Gasoline Olefins Limited to 35%Sulfur Levels Reduced But Still High
Emission Standards For New Vehicles
TimeCategory
Before2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
PC ECE 1503 EURO I ← ← ← EURO II ←
LDV& LDT ECE 1503 ← EURO I ← ← ← EURO IIHDDV None ← EURO I ← ← EURO II ←
Motorcycle ECE R 40 ← EURO I ← ← ← EURO II
Pollution Control Measures on Pollution Control Measures on Motor VehiclesMotor Vehicles
Beijing, Shanghai Introduced Euro 2 in 2003
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Necessary For Continued ProgressNecessary For Continued Progress
050
100150200250300350400450500
PPM
US
US 2006
EU 2000
EU 2005
EU 2005-9
Denmar
k
Sweden C
lass 1
German
y 2003
Japan
Japan
2004
Japan
2005-7
Hong K
ong
South K
orea 2006
Taipei,
Chin
a 2007
Austra
lia 2
006
150
5010
800
EU 2000
(Euro
3)
EU 2005
(Euro
4)
EU 2005
/9 (E
uro 5?
)
China 2
000
0100200300400500600700800900
Gasoline
350
50 10
2000
500
EU 2000
(Euro
3)
EU 2005
(Euro
4)
EU 2005
/9 (E
uro 5
?)
China 2
002
China City
Fuel
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Diesel Fuel
Maximum Sulfur Levels in Chinese & EU Fuels (PPM)
15
Zeolite or refractory oxide support
Precious Metal
SOSO33
SOSO44
Transition Metal
HH22SOSO44
OO22
Sulfate make
Sulfur inhibition
Sulfate Poisoning
SOSO22
Sulfur EffectsSulfur Effects Summary of Influence of Fuel Sulfur on Summary of Influence of Fuel Sulfur on Gasoline and Diesel Exhaust Emission Gasoline and Diesel Exhaust Emission
Control DevicesControl Devices
Control Technology
– TWC– Oxidation Catalyst– Lean NOx Catalyst– SCR with Urea– Catalytic Filters– NOx Adsorbers– Hybrid With TWC
China Addressing Emissions & China Addressing Emissions & Energy Consumption But Not Yet On Energy Consumption But Not Yet On
The Path To Zero EmissionsThe Path To Zero Emissions10th 5-Year Plan– Hybrid Vehicles Ready For Production– Prototype Fuel Cell Vehicle– Parity With EU Emissions Standards by
2010Beijing “Green” OlympicsShanghai World ExpoNew Fuel Economy Program
Advanced Technologies Could Advanced Technologies Could Play A Critical RolePlay A Critical Role
Substantially Reduce Conventional Urban PollutantsReduce Oil Consumption Through High EfficiencyMajor Challenges:– Cost– Vehicle Availability
Hybrid Vehicles– Available in Short Term– Very Low Pollution– Very Good Fuel
Economy– Low Noise– Urban Buses & Trucks
• Very Good in Stop&Go• Lowers Pollution
Exposure
Fuel Cell Vehicles– Longer Term– Near Zero or Zero
Pollution Potential– 2 X Fuel Economy or
More– Low Noise– Significant Challenges
Remain• Cost• Infrastructure
Next Steps in ChinaNext Steps in China
Near Zero Sulfur FuelsEuro 4/5 Emissions StandardsFuel Efficiency Standards For Light Duty Vehicles
Emphasize Hybrids For Special Events– Olympics– World Expo
MOST InvestmentOffer Incentives To Offset Higher PriceSpecial Concessions– Manufacturers– Fleet Managers
ConclusionsConclusions
High Vehicle Growth Is Leading To Rapid Increases in Vehicle EmissionsAir Quality Already DegradingOil Imports SoaringInitial Pollution Control Effort Reflects A Good StartNew Fuel Economy Program A Big Step Forward
Conclusions (2)Conclusions (2)
Most Vehicle Pollutants Will Continue To Go Up Without Additional ControlsGoal Should Be State of the Art Pollution Controls by About 2010Much Cleaner Fuels Will Be RequiredFuel Consumption/CO2 Must Continue To ImproveHybrids Could Help Substantially in Short TermFuel Cells Could Play Important Long Term Role if Challenges Can Be Overcome