The Orange Order and British Protestant Ethnicity: A Comparative Perspective.

The Orange Order and British Protestant Ethnicity:

A ComparativePerspective

The Orange Order• Fraternity formed 1795 in Northern Ireland• Stands for loyalty to British Crown &

Protestantism• Political Protestantism, NOT evangelical

Protestantism. More ethnic than religious.• Associative cornerstone of British-

Protestant ethnicity in several places• Britannic ethno-nationalist• Rapid international spread

ESRC Research• Fellowship focuses on dominant ethnicity and

social change• Issue of how ethnic cores of nations deal with

liberal modernity and globalisation• Orange Order as the associational glue behind

dominant ethnicity in N.I., Canada, W.C. Scotland• Devolution Programme Grant looks at Orange-

UUP link in Northern Ireland• http://www.canadian-english.com/OrangeOrder/

Main Research Questions

• What factors cause per capita Orange membership strength to rise and fall over time and across place? (social question)

• How effective is the Orange Order in determining policy change, and why does its power rise and fall over time and place? (political question)

Research Methodology

• Quantitative: Compare Orange membership among Protestants with variables from census, police reports, history, polls. Over time and across county and ‘province’ (N.I., Scotland, Nfld., Ontario)

• Qualitative: Compare Orange resolutions and organised political activity over time and place. Look at class profile of elite and membership over time. Interviews.

• Sources: Previously unseen internal documents; census, polls, violence stats, valuation rolls, some newspapers

Current Presentation

• Will focus on quantitative research since that has been initial thrust

• Happy to answer technical and qualitative questions as well

Analysis of Variation in Membership Patterns

• International Patterns (v. Canada, Scotland)

• Variation over Time in Northern Ireland

• Variation by County in Northern Ireland

• Inter-Fraternal Patterns (v. Masons, IOOF)

• Theories of Change

• Results of Statistical Analyses

World Orange Membership, c. 1930

N. IRE30%

ENG4%

SCT6%

CAN52%

USA4%

AUS3%

N. IRE

ENG

SCT

CAN

USA

SA

AUS

Concentrated in Ontario, NB & Nfld

Membership, by Province, 1903

40%

23%

12%

6%

5%

2%

1% 11%

Ont West

Ont East

Nfld

NS

Man

BC

NWT

NB

Orange Density, International, 1920

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Nfld Ont Scotland N. Ireland

National Share of World Orange Membership, 1994

N.Ireland63%

England6%

Scotland 9%

Canada15%

AUS2%

Togo2%

N.Ireland

England

Scotland

Canada

USA

NZ

AUS

Ghana

Togo

Current Trends in N.I. Orange Membership, 1966-2001

196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001

Orange Density, by County, 1971

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Antrim

Arm

ag

h

Be

lfast

De

rry Ci

Do

wn

Fe

rma

nag

L'D

erry C

o

Tyro

ne

N.I. Orange Membership, by County, 1886-2001

1881

1886

1891

1901

1911

1926

1937

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

Antrim

Armagh

Belfast

Down

Fermanagh

L'Derry City

Co. Londonderry

Tyrone

Inter-County Patterns, N.I. Orangeism

• General decline since membership peak in early 1960’s (mid-Ulster), or 50’s (East)

• Height of the ‘Troubles’ (1969-72) boosted membership temporarily, as did Anglo-Irish Agreement and Drumcree

• However, general trend is a steady decline• Urban areas suffer heavier declines, even

taking into account population flows.

International Orange Similarities• All jurisdictions experience growth until the

1920’s

• All decline in the Depression years

• All experience growth after World War II

• All experience steady decline in recent decades

• N.I; Scotland 1; Scotland 2 ; Ontario; Newfoundland

International Differences

• Membership decline sets in as early as the 1920’s in Canada and decline in the 1920-39 period is sharper

• Membership decline in the post-1960 period has been quicker in Canada, while Northern Ireland and Scotland have declined at similar steady rates

Inter-Fraternal Patterns

• Orange Order has withstood post-1970 declines better than Masonic NI2

• Inter-County Patterns in Masonic match those of Orange NI3

Summary

Great deal of similarity in shape of historical patterns of membership across nations and fraternities

Great deal of difference between places and fraternities in terms of slope of rise/decline in membership

Theories of Fraternal Change

• Beito: Decline in 1920’s as welfare state emerges• Emery: Decline in 1920’s or 30’s due to private

insurance and expanded recreational options• Putnam: Depression caused decline, WWII

boosted membership. Differences in ‘Social Capital’ between Generations explains most of post-1960 decline.

• Culturalist: Decline of Protestant Religiosity (Bruce?), Decline of Loyalty to Crown, Decline of British-Protestant Ethnic Identity, Ecumenism

Preliminary Research: Qualitative

• Based on Interviews & Reports• Leaders and Rank-and-file members point

to structural forces• But nearly all admit cultural pressures • Also speak of role of events• Institutional changes not seen as significant

by members - though leaders think otherwise

• Qualitative evidence inconclusive

Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across County

• NI: Catholic Population is by far the most important determinant. Economic factors not important (1901-71). Denomination key: % RC and %Other Protestant increase membership; %Methodist and % Presbyterian strongly decrease it.

Quantitative Analysis: Scotland and Canada

• SCT: Catholic population most important determinant, as with NI case. Irish born population of fifty years ago is also very important. All other factors pale in comparison. (for 1901-71)

• ONT: No strong factor - Irish Protestant population most powerful. Proportion Irish, French or Catholic has limited effect. (1911-41)

Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across Time

• Denominational balance (esp. rise of Methodism and Other Protestant sects) important during 1901-71.

• Orangeism in N.I. responded to RC population growth until 1970, but not since then

• Political events (Troubles, Peace Agreements, Drumcree) have been a factor in N.I. post-1970

• Rate of Protestant fatalities have had little impact in N.I. since 1970

• High-school education appears correlated with membership decline in Ontario during 1955-75

• Still more work needed in this and other areas

Conclusion

• Orangeism was a worldwide movement though strongest in Ulster and eastern Canada

• Orangeism’s rise owed a lot to inter-ethnic conflict with a Catholic ethnie. Relatively Catholic counties in N.I. and Scotland have far more ‘Orange’ Protestants

Conclusion II

• The role of economic change is minimal during the period 1891-1971 in all areas

• The role of events is only truly important in N.I. – especially in the post-Troubles period

• Strong evidence against ‘contact’ hypothesis• No real answer as to why Orangeism in decline• Evidence appears to support Putnam thesis,

though more work needed with respect to generation, as well as time-series analysis

Further Research

• Inclusion of 1971-2001 census data

• Time Series Analysis using Opinion polls from post-1969 period

• Examination of Initiations, as well as Junior and Female trends

• Qualitative Research on Political Strength

• http://www.canadian-english.com/OrangeOrder/