Top Banner
Introduction Progress and examples Future developments The Open-Source Air Pollution Project Community tools for analysing air pollution data David Carslaw Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds 14 May 2008 Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project
58

The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Apr 24, 2022

Download

Documents

dariahiddleston
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

The Open-Source Air Pollution ProjectCommunity tools for analysing air pollution data

David Carslaw

Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds

14 May 2008

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 2: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Summary

Background to the project

Progress and examples

Future directions and developments

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 3: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

The benefits of openness

Transparency should be at the heart of environmentalregulation

Those affected by environmental decisions should be able toscrutinise the tools that lead to those decisions

Many examples from the USA

Open-source software

All source code made available, free and can be modified byanyoneNo longer in the realm of enthusiasts e.g. Linux, MySQL, R

Both promote participation and ownership

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 4: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

The benefits of openness

Transparency should be at the heart of environmentalregulation

Those affected by environmental decisions should be able toscrutinise the tools that lead to those decisionsMany examples from the USA

Open-source software

All source code made available, free and can be modified byanyoneNo longer in the realm of enthusiasts e.g. Linux, MySQL, R

Both promote participation and ownership

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 5: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

The benefits of openness

Transparency should be at the heart of environmentalregulation

Those affected by environmental decisions should be able toscrutinise the tools that lead to those decisionsMany examples from the USA

Open-source software

All source code made available, free and can be modified byanyoneNo longer in the realm of enthusiasts e.g. Linux, MySQL, R

Both promote participation and ownership

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 6: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

The benefits of openness

Transparency should be at the heart of environmentalregulation

Those affected by environmental decisions should be able toscrutinise the tools that lead to those decisionsMany examples from the USA

Open-source software

All source code made available, free and can be modified byanyone

No longer in the realm of enthusiasts e.g. Linux, MySQL, R

Both promote participation and ownership

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 7: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

The benefits of openness

Transparency should be at the heart of environmentalregulation

Those affected by environmental decisions should be able toscrutinise the tools that lead to those decisionsMany examples from the USA

Open-source software

All source code made available, free and can be modified byanyoneNo longer in the realm of enthusiasts e.g. Linux, MySQL, R

Both promote participation and ownership

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 8: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

The benefits of openness

Transparency should be at the heart of environmentalregulation

Those affected by environmental decisions should be able toscrutinise the tools that lead to those decisionsMany examples from the USA

Open-source software

All source code made available, free and can be modified byanyoneNo longer in the realm of enthusiasts e.g. Linux, MySQL, R

Both promote participation and ownership

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 9: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

The benefits of openness

Transparency should be at the heart of environmentalregulation

Those affected by environmental decisions should be able toscrutinise the tools that lead to those decisionsMany examples from the USA

Open-source software

All source code made available, free and can be modified byanyoneNo longer in the realm of enthusiasts e.g. Linux, MySQL, R

Both promote participation and ownership

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 10: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Interesting aside – climate change and the “hockey stick”

Controversy over IPCC “hockeystick” temperature grapha

Statistical methods shown to beflawed (McIntyre andMcKitrick)

Code and data made available –some in R

aMann, M.E. et al. (1998). Global-scaletemperature patterns and climate forcingover the past six centuries. Nature, Vol.392, pp. 779787.

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 11: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Project aims

To build a set of free, open-source tools for the analysis of airpollution data

Use highly developed open-source statistical software ‘R’

To make it easier to analyse data and to gain insights from itExploit the enormous (and growing) amount of air pollutiondata availableProgressively include advanced approaches generally not widelyavailable

Outputs

An R ‘package’ dedicated to air pollution analysisA web site to act as a central resourceComprehensive documentation

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 12: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Project aims

To build a set of free, open-source tools for the analysis of airpollution data

Use highly developed open-source statistical software ‘R’To make it easier to analyse data and to gain insights from it

Exploit the enormous (and growing) amount of air pollutiondata availableProgressively include advanced approaches generally not widelyavailable

Outputs

An R ‘package’ dedicated to air pollution analysisA web site to act as a central resourceComprehensive documentation

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 13: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Project aims

To build a set of free, open-source tools for the analysis of airpollution data

Use highly developed open-source statistical software ‘R’To make it easier to analyse data and to gain insights from itExploit the enormous (and growing) amount of air pollutiondata available

Progressively include advanced approaches generally not widelyavailable

Outputs

An R ‘package’ dedicated to air pollution analysisA web site to act as a central resourceComprehensive documentation

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 14: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Project aims

To build a set of free, open-source tools for the analysis of airpollution data

Use highly developed open-source statistical software ‘R’To make it easier to analyse data and to gain insights from itExploit the enormous (and growing) amount of air pollutiondata availableProgressively include advanced approaches generally not widelyavailable

Outputs

An R ‘package’ dedicated to air pollution analysisA web site to act as a central resourceComprehensive documentation

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 15: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Project aims

To build a set of free, open-source tools for the analysis of airpollution data

Use highly developed open-source statistical software ‘R’To make it easier to analyse data and to gain insights from itExploit the enormous (and growing) amount of air pollutiondata availableProgressively include advanced approaches generally not widelyavailable

Outputs

An R ‘package’ dedicated to air pollution analysisA web site to act as a central resourceComprehensive documentation

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 16: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Project aims

To build a set of free, open-source tools for the analysis of airpollution data

Use highly developed open-source statistical software ‘R’To make it easier to analyse data and to gain insights from itExploit the enormous (and growing) amount of air pollutiondata availableProgressively include advanced approaches generally not widelyavailable

Outputs

An R ‘package’ dedicated to air pollution analysis

A web site to act as a central resourceComprehensive documentation

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 17: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Project aims

To build a set of free, open-source tools for the analysis of airpollution data

Use highly developed open-source statistical software ‘R’To make it easier to analyse data and to gain insights from itExploit the enormous (and growing) amount of air pollutiondata availableProgressively include advanced approaches generally not widelyavailable

Outputs

An R ‘package’ dedicated to air pollution analysisA web site to act as a central resource

Comprehensive documentation

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 18: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Project aims

To build a set of free, open-source tools for the analysis of airpollution data

Use highly developed open-source statistical software ‘R’To make it easier to analyse data and to gain insights from itExploit the enormous (and growing) amount of air pollutiondata availableProgressively include advanced approaches generally not widelyavailable

Outputs

An R ‘package’ dedicated to air pollution analysisA web site to act as a central resourceComprehensive documentation

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 19: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Project aims

To build a set of free, open-source tools for the analysis of airpollution data

Use highly developed open-source statistical software ‘R’To make it easier to analyse data and to gain insights from itExploit the enormous (and growing) amount of air pollutiondata availableProgressively include advanced approaches generally not widelyavailable

Outputs

An R ‘package’ dedicated to air pollution analysisA web site to act as a central resourceComprehensive documentation

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 20: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ status

Help inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 21: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 22: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 23: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel works

Highly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 24: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sources

Many non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 25: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 26: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 27: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 28: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 29: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant funding

Widely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 30: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 31: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

Progress – case studies and user involvement

Sefton Council

Support as part of their ‘Beacon’ statusHelp inform continuing air quality management activities

North Lincolnshire/AEA

Scunthorpe steel worksHighly complex mixture of sourcesMany non-road traffic sources

Defra/AEA

Developments to enhance informatics value of AURN data

NERC Knowledge Transfer bid

Would provide significant fundingWidely supported

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 32: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

What effort is required to use these tools?

The project aims to overcome barriers to analysis

Lack of time, money, specialist software, know-how or all four!

Not required to learn R

Learning R can be hard workMake things as simple as possible for the user

Example of code required to make a polar plot

polar.plot(mydata, pollutant = "so2")

Some examples of current capabilities to follow . . .

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 33: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

What effort is required to use these tools?

The project aims to overcome barriers to analysis

Lack of time, money, specialist software, know-how or all four!

Not required to learn R

Learning R can be hard workMake things as simple as possible for the user

Example of code required to make a polar plot

polar.plot(mydata, pollutant = "so2")

Some examples of current capabilities to follow . . .

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 34: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

What effort is required to use these tools?

The project aims to overcome barriers to analysis

Lack of time, money, specialist software, know-how or all four!

Not required to learn R

Learning R can be hard work

Make things as simple as possible for the user

Example of code required to make a polar plot

polar.plot(mydata, pollutant = "so2")

Some examples of current capabilities to follow . . .

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 35: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

What effort is required to use these tools?

The project aims to overcome barriers to analysis

Lack of time, money, specialist software, know-how or all four!

Not required to learn R

Learning R can be hard workMake things as simple as possible for the user

Example of code required to make a polar plot

polar.plot(mydata, pollutant = "so2")

Some examples of current capabilities to follow . . .

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 36: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

What effort is required to use these tools?

The project aims to overcome barriers to analysis

Lack of time, money, specialist software, know-how or all four!

Not required to learn R

Learning R can be hard workMake things as simple as possible for the user

Example of code required to make a polar plot

polar.plot(mydata, pollutant = "so2")

Some examples of current capabilities to follow . . .

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 37: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

ContentsOpennessBackground

What effort is required to use these tools?

The project aims to overcome barriers to analysis

Lack of time, money, specialist software, know-how or all four!

Not required to learn R

Learning R can be hard workMake things as simple as possible for the user

Example of code required to make a polar plot

polar.plot(mydata, pollutant = "so2")

Some examples of current capabilities to follow . . .

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 38: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Diurnal variation in concentrations

Diurnal and day of weekvariations can provideclues as to the source

Function diurnal.errorproduces three plots

Uncertainty bands canhelp determine whetherone source is differentfrom another

day of week

conc

20

30

40

50

60

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

hour of day

conc

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 5 10 15 20 25

day of week

conc

35

40

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

●●

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 39: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Bivariate polar plots

Useful for sourcedetection

Methods have beenextended to ‘model’surface concentrations

Can usefully be combinedwith other methods

Sulphur dioxide at Marylebone Rd

W

S

N

E

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 40: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Concentrations by wind direction, year and month

month

win

d di

rect

ion

(°°)

100

200

300

Jan Apr Jul Oct

1998

Jan Apr Jul Oct

1999

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2000

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2001

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2002

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2003

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2004

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2005

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 41: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Maximum hourly ozone concentrations by hour of day, yearand month

month

hour

0

5

10

15

20

Jan Apr Jul Oct

1998

Jan Apr Jul Oct

1999

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2000

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2001

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2002

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2003

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2004

Jan Apr Jul Oct

2005

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 42: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Diurnal and day of week variation – PMcoarse

hour of day

coar

se p

artic

les

10

20

30

1998M

onda

y

0 5 10 15 20

1999

Mon

day

2000

Mon

day

0 5 10 15 20

2001

Mon

day

2002

Mon

day

0 5 10 15 20

2003

Mon

day

2004

Mon

day

0 5 10 15 20

2005

Mon

day

1998

Tue

sday

1999

Tue

sday

2000

Tue

sday

2001

Tue

sday

2002

Tue

sday

2003

Tue

sday

2004

Tue

sday

10

20

30

2005

Tue

sday

10

20

30

1998

Wed

nesd

ay

1999

Wed

nesd

ay

2000

Wed

nesd

ay

2001

Wed

nesd

ay

2002

Wed

nesd

ay

2003

Wed

nesd

ay

2004

Wed

nesd

ay

2005

Wed

nesd

ay

1998

Thu

rsda

y

1999

Thu

rsda

y

2000

Thu

rsda

y

2001

Thu

rsda

y

2002

Thu

rsda

y

2003

Thu

rsda

y

2004

Thu

rsda

y

10

20

30

2005

Thu

rsda

y

10

20

30

1998

Frid

ay

1999

Frid

ay

2000

Frid

ay

2001

Frid

ay

2002

Frid

ay

2003

Frid

ay

2004

Frid

ay

2005

Frid

ay

1998

Sat

urda

y

1999

Sat

urda

y

2000

Sat

urda

y

2001

Sat

urda

y

2002S

atur

day

2003

Sat

urda

y

2004

Sat

urda

y

10

20

30

2005

Sat

urda

y

10

20

30

0 5 10 15 20

1998

Sun

day

1999

Sun

day

0 5 10 15 20

2000

Sun

day

2001

Sun

day

0 5 10 15 20

2002

Sun

day

2003S

unda

y

0 5 10 15 20

2004

Sun

day

2005

Sun

day

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 43: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Flexible treatment of trends – ozone at Marylebone Road

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals– deseasonalise first

Consider “no trend”hypothesis throughbootstrap resampling

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 44: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Flexible treatment of trends – ozone at Marylebone Road

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals– deseasonalise first

Consider “no trend”hypothesis throughbootstrap resampling

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

510

15date

conc

entr

atio

n (p

pb)

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 45: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Flexible treatment of trends – ozone at Marylebone Road

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals– deseasonalise first

Consider “no trend”hypothesis throughbootstrap resampling

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 46: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Flexible treatment of trends – ozone at Marylebone Road

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals– deseasonalise first

Consider “no trend”hypothesis throughbootstrap resampling

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

46

810

1214

date

conc

entr

atio

n (p

pb)

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 47: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Flexible treatment of trends – ozone at Marylebone Road

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals– deseasonalise first

Consider “no trend”hypothesis throughbootstrap resampling

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 48: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Source detectionDisplaying lots of informationTrends

Flexible treatment of trends – ozone at Marylebone Road

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals

Trend with smooth fit and95 % confidence intervals– deseasonalise first

Consider “no trend”hypothesis throughbootstrap resampling

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

46

810

1214

date

conc

entr

atio

n (p

pb)

MeasurementsNo trend hypothesis

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 49: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Documentation supportConcluding remarks

Documentation

Documentation has beenstarted

Part 1: Introduction tousing R to analysemonitoring dataPart II: Dedicatedfunctions to analysemonitoring data

Longer term aims

Develop a Frameworkfor analysing dataCase studies spanninga range ofcontemporary problems

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 50: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Documentation supportConcluding remarks

Longer-term aims

The big picture

Change the way we do things

Environmental models?Work that is truly reproducible

Wider issues

Developing countriesActively seek participation of researchers elsewhere in the world

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 51: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Documentation supportConcluding remarks

Longer-term aims

The big picture

Change the way we do thingsEnvironmental models?

Work that is truly reproducible

Wider issues

Developing countriesActively seek participation of researchers elsewhere in the world

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 52: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Documentation supportConcluding remarks

Longer-term aims

The big picture

Change the way we do thingsEnvironmental models?Work that is truly reproducible

Wider issues

Developing countriesActively seek participation of researchers elsewhere in the world

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 53: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Documentation supportConcluding remarks

Longer-term aims

The big picture

Change the way we do thingsEnvironmental models?Work that is truly reproducible

Wider issues

Developing countriesActively seek participation of researchers elsewhere in the world

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 54: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Documentation supportConcluding remarks

Longer-term aims

The big picture

Change the way we do thingsEnvironmental models?Work that is truly reproducible

Wider issues

Developing countries

Actively seek participation of researchers elsewhere in the world

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 55: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Documentation supportConcluding remarks

Longer-term aims

The big picture

Change the way we do thingsEnvironmental models?Work that is truly reproducible

Wider issues

Developing countriesActively seek participation of researchers elsewhere in the world

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 56: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Documentation supportConcluding remarks

Longer-term aims

The big picture

Change the way we do thingsEnvironmental models?Work that is truly reproducible

Wider issues

Developing countriesActively seek participation of researchers elsewhere in the world

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 57: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Documentation supportConcluding remarks

Longer-term aims

The big picture

Change the way we do thingsEnvironmental models?Work that is truly reproducible

Wider issues

Developing countriesActively seek participation of researchers elsewhere in the world

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

Page 58: The Open-Source Air Pollution Project

IntroductionProgress and examples

Future developments

Documentation supportConcluding remarks

Thank you for your attention!

OPEN sourc

e

Air Pollution Forecasting Seminar The Open-Source Air Pollution Project