The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions in September 2016
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The Northern Region’ Economic Conditions in September 2016
2
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Agricultural price % YoY
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Agricultural production % YoY
Index % YoY Index % YoY
Index % YoY
Source : Office of Agricultural Economics, calculated by Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office
P = Preliminary data, R = Revised data Note : 1. farm income includes cost of production.
2. price excludes compensation and subsidies by government.
% YoY 2015R2016
H1R Q1R Q2R Q3R AugR SepR
Farm Income -14.8 -16.6 -12.3 -20.9 -6.7 -4.3 0.1
Production -13.6 -14.6 -8.1 -21.2 -7.3 -6.3 0.3
Price -1.3 -2.1 -4.6 0.4 0.7 2.1 -0.2
-50.00
-10.00
30.00
70.00
110.00
150.00
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Farm income % YoY
Farm IncomeRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
Index : 2006 = 100 % YoY
Manufacturing Production Index
Source : Customs Department calculated by Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office
Regional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
MPI % YoY
20152016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3 AugR Sep
MPI level 96.4 91.9 115.5 68.3 67.2 71.1 72.0
% YoY -5.7 -10.3 -6.9 -15.5 -17.1 -11.9 -16.9
MPI level, SA - - 96.1 80.5 83.7 83.5 88.8
% MoM, % QoQ, SA - - 7.8 -16.2 4.0 5.8 6.3R = Revised data
3
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
-20-100102030405060
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,400
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Air Passengers % YoY
-20-100102030405060
01020304050607080
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Vat : hotel & restaurant % YoY
Million Baht % YoY % YoY
% Baht/room
‘000 persons
4
Hotel occupancy
2015 2016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepP
% 54.2 57.8 64.4 51.1 48.7 50.2 46.0
Hotel average room rate
20152016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepP
Baht/room 1,345.7 1,478.0 1,402.0 1,554.0 1,422.1 1,404.5 1,421.1
Vat : Hotel & restaurant
20152016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3 AugR SepP
Million Baht 624.1 361.6 209.5 152.1 147.6 53.4 51.7
% YoY 15.3 11.0 12.0 9.8 5.4 4.3 10.2
Air passenger
20152016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep
‘000 persons 10,899.2 6,052.7 3,242.8 2,809.9 2,961.1 1,020.0 890.1
% YoY 25.9 15.1 13.8 16.6 13.5 8.7 13.0
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Regional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
Tourism
Sources : Ministry of Finance, Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited., and Department of Tourism P = Preliminary data, R = Revised data
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Wholesale Trade % YoY
Index
Source : Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office
Trade Index
5
% YoY
Regional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Retail Trade % YoY
Index % YoY
P = Preliminary data, R = Revised data
20152016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P AugR SepP
Wholesale Trade 259.0 291.7 286.0 297.4 272.4 270.0 275.4
% YoY 9.7 10.6 6.6 14.7 9.9 14.2 10.6
Retail Trade 183.9 195.4 194.8 196.0 183.2 181.2 180.3
% YoY -1.5 3.8 3.0 4.5 5.0 4.6 7.1
-10
0
10
20
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
PCI % YoY (RHS)
Index % YoY
6
P = Preliminary data, R = Revised data
Source : Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office
20152016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P AugR SepP
PCI 149.5 154.5 154.7 154.3 152.0 153.8 154.2
% YoY 2.1 4.5 4.4 4.6 2.2 3.5 3.3
% MoM, % QoQ, SA 2.2 0.8 -0.2 -1.5 4.0 0.3
Private Consumption Index Regional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
PII % YoY (RHS)
Index, SA % YoY
Source: Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office
2015R2016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P AugR SepP
PII 119.2 112.7 114.1 111.4 113.3 115.4 111.0
% YoY -5.5 -5.9 -4.1 -7.7 -4.7 -3.2 -6.7
% MoM, % QoQ - - -3.8 -2.4 1.8 1.6 -3.8P = Preliminary data, R = Revised data
7
Private Investment IndexRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
Million Baht
Source : Ministry of Finance
Expenditure 20152016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep
Current 120,129.6 65,789.5 34,348.1 31,441.4 30,605.7 9,194.5 12,863.7
% YoY -11.7 16.1 14.7 17.8 -2.6 -3.3 4.0
Capital 63,016.8 35,723.5 18,961.2 16,762.3 14,777.9 4,660.2 5,978.6
% YoY 30.9 9.0 8.7 9.3 7.8 30.7 -3.4
Total 183,146.4 101,513.0 53,309.3 48,203.7 45,383.6 13,854.7 18,842.3
% YoY -0.6 13.5 12.5 14.7 0.5 5.9 1.5
8
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Capital Current
Regional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
Public Expenditure
-50.0
-25.0
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
-100.0
20.0
140.0
260.0
380.0
500.0
620.0
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Exports % YoY
-60.0
-30.0
0.0
30.0
60.0
90.0
120.0
-40.0
10.0
60.0
110.0
160.0
210.0
260.0
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Imports % YoY
Source : Customs Department
Million US$ Million US$% YoY % YoY
9
Million US$ 20152016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep
EXPORTS 5,326.5 2,647.3 1,329.8 1,317.5 1,244.9 415.2 429.1
% YoY -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -4.0 -2.7 -0.6
IMPORTS 1,704.2 922.3 445.8 476.4 595.0 182.7 200.8
% YoY -4.1 18.2 17..6 18.8 23.6 14.7 14.8
Foreign TradeRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
-25-20-15-10-505
101520
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Raw food Energy
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Headline Food Non-food
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
% YoY
% YoY % YoY Raw Food and EnergyCore Inflation
Source : Ministry of Commerce
%YoY 20152016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep
Headline -1.42 -0.34 -0.93 0.25 0.49 0.10 0.31
Food 0.77 1.41 0.35 2.47 2.05 1.44 1.30
Non-food -2.73 -1.41 -1.72 -1.11 -0.47 -0.72 -0.31
Core 0.88 0.60 0.54 0.65 0.52 0.58 0.54
Headline Inflation
InflationRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
10
Unemployment
Q22015
Q32015
Q22016
Q32016
‘000 persons 49.7 49.2 54.3 63.6
rate 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0255075
100125
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 2015 20162014 2015 2016
’000 person %
Unemployment persons Unemployment rate
Source : National Statistical Office 11
The rate of change of employed persons by industry
Unemployment
%YOY
% of Total Labor Force
(as of Sep 2016)
2015*
2016
H1* Q1 Q2 Q3
Labor Force (1,000 Persons) 100 6,529.7 6,468.1 6,468.1 6,332.3 6,442.5Employed persons 99.0 -0.7 0.9 0.9 -1.9 -0.4
Agriculture 44.4 -1.8 -6.3 -6.3 -12.4 -4.7Non-agriculture 54.6 0.3 6.5 6.5 6.2 1.6
Manufacturing 8.6 -0.6 4.2 4.2 3.6 -7.6Construction 6.2 -0.7 8.6 8.6 8.1 -1.1Wholesale & retail trade 15.2 0.6 5.8 5.8 1.1 2.3Hotel & restaurants 5.8 1.4 8.1 8.1 17.6 4.5Others 18.7 0.8 7.0 7.0 8.1 6.5
Unemployed persons 0.8 3.9 19.7 19.7 9.3 29.3Seasonally inactive persons 0.2 5.1 -35.1 -35.1 3.5 -64.8
Labor Force SurveyRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
* Calculated by Bank of Thailand, Northern Region Office
Commercial Bank’s Deposits Commercial Bank’s Credits
Billion Baht % YoY Billion Baht % YoY
Source : Bank of Thailand
Deposits and Credits of Commercial BanksRegional Economy Division, Northern Region Office
12
Billion Baht
20152016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Aug Sep
Deposits 622.5 639.9 638.6 639.9 628.3 630.0 628.3
% YoY 3.2 5.1 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.2 3.9
Billion Baht 2015
2016
H1 Q1 Q2 Q3P Aug Sep
Credits 588.8 581.1 585.7 581.1 581.8 580.4 581.8
% YoY -1.2 2.4 4.5 2.4 1.2 1.3 1.2
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
100
200
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500
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800
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Credits % YoY
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
100
200
300
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500
600
700
800
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Deposits % YoY
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