Select Views Of The North American Intermodal Marketplace, Past & Present Including Its Key Participants,* The Railroads, Intermediaries, and Truckers *Excepting privately-held Schneider National, Inc., for which data details are not publicly available. Thom A. Williams, managing director March 9, 2010
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The North American Intermodal Marketplace @ YE2009
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Select Views Of The
North American Intermodal Marketplace, Past & Present
Including Its Key Participants,* The Railroads, Intermediaries, and Truckers
*Excepting privately-held Schneider National, Inc., for which data details are not publicly available.
Thom A. Williams, managing director
March 9, 2010
The Objects of Our Affection:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
BNI
UNP
NSC
CSX
CNR
CP
KSU$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
RR Intermodal RevenuesUS$s in millions
Class 1 Railroads' Intermodal Revenues
KSU, 9-yr. ('00-'09)CAGR = +12.4%
CP, 9-yr. ('00-'09)CAGR = +4.2%
CNR, 9-yr. ('00-'09)CAGR = +4.3
CSX, 9-yr. ('00-'09)CAGR = +0.3
NSC, 9-yr. ('00-'09)CAGR = +3.5%
UNP, 9-yr. ('00-'09)CAGR = +3.0%
BNI, 9-yr. ('00-'09)CAGR = +4.5%
The North American Intermodal sector's
fortune is inextricably linked to international
trade! About 60 percent of N. A. rail intermodal traffic
consists of merchandise imports and exports. In 2008,
the number of international
intermodal containers moved by rail from
the seaports totaled 7.8 million.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: RITA-BTS, NRF-PortTracker, and AAR reports and records.
U.S. Maritime Port and Railroad Container Volumes
45,000
38,000
19,70021,300
23,900
26,10027,600
28,96928,190
11,996
32,700
36,300
38,700
44,400
42,000
12,7
00
11,6
00
12,4
65 14,0
27 15,4
02
16,4
28
16,5
04
15,2
00
11,38312,108
13,16013,939
14,639 14,437 13,959
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
TEUs in thousands
RITA-BTS U.S. Total All Loaded & Empty TEU Traffic RITA-BTS U.S. Total International International TEU Traffic
NRF-PortTracker Total Loaded TEUs Shipped to Major Retail Ports American Assoc. of Railroads Total Intermodal (COFC + TOFC) Volumes
Totals are for all container ports, reflecting only loaded containers(as TEUs) in U.S. international maritime activity, U.S. imports and exports.
Totals are for all container ports, including all container traffic (both loaded and empty TEUs) in U.S. international maritime activity, U.S. imports and exports.
Totals reported by the National Retail Federation's & Global Insight's Port-Tracker data, TEUs shipped through major U.S. container ports.
AAR reported total U.S. and Canadian container(COFC + TOFC) load volumes.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and reports and records of the AAR and NRF-PortTracker.
Container and Intermodal Volumes vs. RR Intermodal Revenues,2006 - 2009
13,746
16,051
16,865
17,375
12,700
15,200
16,50416,428
$14,192 $14,324
$15,238
$11,809
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Container Volumes,in thousands
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
Total RR Intermodal Revenues,US$s in millions
RR Intermodal Shipments NRF Port Volumes RR Intermodal Revenue
YE2009 vs. YE2006: Container counts of imported goods fell ~23%, to 12.7 million at YE '09, and the railroads carried ~21% fewer intermodal shipments in '09 than during '06.
What does not arrive at the ports is not transported across the Nation.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
2005 Intermodal Railroads' Market SharesHow the 7 Class 1 RRs divided US$12.7 billion of '05 Intermodal revenues:
UNP19%
BNI35%
CNR10%
CP9%
KSU2%
CSX11%
NSC14%
BNI CNR CP CSX KSU NSC UNP
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
2009 Intermodal Railroads' Market SharesHow the 7 Class 1 RRs divided US$11.8 billion of '09 Intermodal revenues:
UNP21%BNI
34%
CNR11%
CP10%
KSU1%
CSX10%
NSC13%
BNI CNR CP CSX KSU NSC UNP
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
CSX & NSC
BNI, UNP & KSU
BNI,UNP
& KSU$4,628
BNI,UNP
& KSU$4,567
BNI,UNP
& KSU$4,829
BNI,UNP
& KSU$5,191
BNI,UNP
& KSU$5,908
BNI,UNP
& KSU$7,069
BNI,UNP
& KSU$8,158
BNI,UNP
& KSU$8,347
BNI,UNP
& KSU$8,735
BNI,UNP
& KSU$6,608
CSX& NSC$2,287
CSX& NSC$2,235
CSX& NSC $2,361
CSX& NSC$2,503
CSX& NSC$2,883
CSX& NSC$3,188
CSX& NSC$3,383
CSX& NSC$3,277
CSX& NSC$3,524
CSX& NSC$2,734
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
Intermodal Revenues,US$s in millions
Western (BNI, UNP & KSU) vs. Eastern (CSX & NSC)U.S. Railroad Intermodal Revenues
Total annual Freight Ton Miles (Rail and Truck movements, combined) incurred within States east of the Mississippi consistently account for near 60% of total U.S. freight ton mileage, but now just 29% of total RR Intermodal revenues. Keep an eye on NSC's new alliance with JBHT and CSX's with Schneider National; from the freight ton per mile perspective, Eastern U.S. Intermodal revenues may soon far surpass what they are today.
The Mississippi River essentially separates the spheres of influence of the Western-focused railroads (BNI, UNP and KSU) from CSX and NSC, which likewise dominate the Eastern third of the U.S.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
Population Density Drives Overall Freight Ton Miles:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
Freight Tonnage on Highways, Railroads, and Inland Waterways:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: reports of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and the International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
Tonnage on Trailer-on-Flatcar and Container-on-Flatcar RR Intermodal Moves: 2006
This display illuminates: (1) Intermodal’s strengths west of the Mississippi, where longer transport distances (avg. 1,500+ miles) are dominant; and, (2) Intermodal’s still-present challenges to capture revenues from trucking in the much-larger freight markets of the Eastern States, where the shorter transport distances handicap Intermodal’s “rail vs. truck” pricing advantages. Note, e.g., how little Intermodal flows to or from the East via rail from or to St. Louis, Memphis and Dallas.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
Major Truck Routes on the National Highway System:
The Interstate Highways are congested, the Rails are open, and Shippers always seek to reduce costs. Herein lie the substantial future Intermodal opportunities for CSX, NSC, JBHT, and others!
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
Major Freight Corridors:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
Components of the Major Freight Corridors:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
Current Train Volumes Compared to Current Capacity:
Clearly, CSX & NSC (dominant holders of rail lanes east of the Mississippi River) are far from lacking capacity to increase their revenues via growing Intermodal activities!
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: JB Hunt Transport Inc.
How the Truckload vs. Intermodal Freight Mix Appears Today:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: JB Hunt Transport Inc.
How the Truckload vs. Intermodal Freight Mix Will Look in 10-15 Years:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
Now, Let’s Take a Closer Look at JB Hunt Intermodal’s Very Successful Journey via Train:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and AAR reports.
Intermodal Load Volumes: AAR U.S. vs. JBHT Intermodal
9,286,000 9,045,000
9,350,000
9,956,000
11,000,000
11,690,000
12,280,000 12,030,000
11,5
10,0
00
9,88
1,00
0
425,304446,569
473,856
527,404
581,894598,857
629,533
738,207
915,413
837,575
9.3%
7.3%
6.1%
5.1%5.1%5.3%5.3%
5.1%4.9%
4.6%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
AAR Total U.S.Intermodal Loads,in thousands
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
JBHT TotalIntermodal Loads
AAR Total US IntermodalLoads, 9-yr. ('00-'09)CAGR = 0.7%
JBHT Total IntermodalLoads, 9-yr. (''00-'09)CAGR = 8.9%
JBHT Intermodalas % of AAR totalU.S. Intermodal
AAR U.S. RRs' 9-year IntermodalVolume CAGR = +0.7%
JBHT's 9-year IntermodalVolume CAGR = +8.9%
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
Intermodal Gross Revenues: Class 1 Railroads vs. JBHT Intermodal
$8,616 $8,574$9,124
$9,735
$10,943
$12,688
$14,192
$11,
809
$15,
238
$14,
324
$681$741
$809
$936
$1,115
$1,284
$1,430
$1,653
$1,952
$1,764
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Class 1 RRs' IntermodalGross Revenues,US$s in millions
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
JBHT's IntermodalGross Revenues,US$s in millions
7 North AmericanClass 1 RRs, 9-yr. ('00-'09)CAGR = +3.6%
JBHT Intermodal,9-yr. ('00-'09)CAGR = +11.2%
JBHT's 9-year Intermodal Revenue CAGR = 11.2%
Class 1 RR's 9-year Intermodal Revenue CAGR = 3.6%
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and IANA reports.
20042005
20062007
20082009
1,306,237
1,165,0151,135,582 1,137,938
1,053,771994,174
581,894 598,857 629,533
738,207
837,575
915,413
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
Intermodal Load Totals
Intermodal Marketing Companies (IMCs) vs. JBHT IntermodalLoad Volumes
JBHT total Intermodal loads,5-yr. CAGR = +9.5%
IANA IMC total Intermodal loads,5-yr. CAGR = -5.3%
Since YE '04 independent Intermodal Marketing Companies (the IMCs tracked by IANA) have watched their annual Intermodal volumes decline by ~312,000
shipments/yr. During that same time span JBHT's annual Intermodal volumes grew by an near identical amount,
~334,000 shipments/yr.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and AAR reports.
Recent Railroad & JBHT Intermodal Unit Volumes
KSU
CP
CNR
CSX
NSC
UNP
BNI629,533
738,207
837,575
915,413
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
Railroad IntermodalUnit Volumes
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
JBHT IntermodalUnit Volumes
KSU3-year('06-'09)CAGR =-7.4%%
CP3-year('06-'09)CAGR =-6.0%
CNR3-year('06-'09)CAGR =-2.1%
CSX3-year('06-'09)CAGR =-4.4%
NSC3-year('06-'09)CAGR =-8.1%
UNP3-year('06-'09)CAGR =-7.1%
BNI3-year('06-'09)CAGR =-10.7
JBHT3-year('06-'09)CAGR =+13.3%
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
Key Intermediaries' Intermodal Revenues
$1,055$1,004
$959
$1,191
$681
$1,764
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Intermodal Revenues,US$s in millions
LSTR CHRW HUBG PACR JBHT
Little has changed forPacer and Hub Groupin the nine full years
between2000 and 2009!
In the meantime, JB Hunt has nearly tripledits Intermodal revenues, and surely to
Pacer's and Hub's considerable detriment!Now facing JBHT's formidable traction here, do
either PACR or HUBG have muchchance for substantive Intermodal growth?
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
Key Intermediaries Gross Intermodal Revenues
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Gross IntermodalRevenues,US$s in millions
$0.000
$0.500
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
$2.500
$3.000
$3.500
$4.000
Avg. On-roadDiesel Price,
US$s/gal.
LSTR9-year ('00-'08)CAGR = +1.4%
CHRW9-year ('00-'08)CAGR = +10.4%
PACR9-year ('00-'09)CAGR = +2.4%
HUBG9-year ('00-'09)CAGR = +0.5%
JBHT9-year ('00-'09)CAGR = +11.2%
Avg. On-roadDiesel Price,US$s/gal.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
Comparing HUBG, PACR and JBHT Intermodal Revenues
$1,080
$1,173$1,206
$1,329
$1,055
$959
$1,076 $1,053
$1,154
$1,250
$1,403
$1,492
$1,568$1,633
$1,191
$681$741
$809
$936
$1,115
$1,284
$1,430
$1,653
$1,952
$1,764
$977$1,015
$915$905
$1,004
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Gross IntermodalRevenues,US$s in millions
$1.000
$1.250
$1.500
$1.750
$2.000
$2.250
$2.500
$2.750
$3.000
$3.250
$3.500
$3.750
$4.000
Avg. On-roadDiesel Price,
US$s/gal.
HUBG9-year ('00-'09)CAGR = +0.5%
PACR9-year ('00-'09)CAGR = +2.4%
JBHT9-year ('00-'09)CAGR = +11.2%
Avg. On-roadDiesel Price,US$s/gal.
As fuel prices and fuel surcharges declined, HUBG's and PACR's Intermodal
revenues fell even faster.Little wonder that neither HUBG nor PACR
disclose Intermodal segment shipping volumes or margins.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
YE 2000 Key Intermodal Intermediaries' Market SharesHow the Top 5 divided US$2.8 billion of 2000 Intermodal Revenue
LSTR, $67 mil., 2%
CHRW, $76 mil., 3%
JBHT$681 million
24%
HUBG$1,004 million
37%
PACR$959 million
34%
LSTR CHRW HUBG PACR JBHT
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
YE 2006 Key Intermodal Intermediaries' Market SharesHow the Top 5 divided US$4.4 billion of 2006 Intermodal Revenue
LSTR, $123 mil., 3%
CHRW$167million
4%
HUBG$1,173 million
27%
PACR$1,492 million
33%
JBHT$1,430 million
33%
LSTR CHRW HUBG PACR JBHT
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
YE 2009 Key Intermodal Intermediaries' Market SharesHow the Top 5 divided US$4.3 billion of 2009 Intermodal Revenue
JBHT$1,764 million
41%PACR
$1,191 million28%
HUBG$1,055 million
25%
CHRW$186 million
4%
LSTR, $76 mil., 2%
LSTR CHRW HUBG PACR JBHT
While these top 5 generated ~$4.27 billion of gross Intermodal revenue during 2009, or ~$1.49 billion more than during 2000, JBHT Intermodal captured 74% (~$1.1 billion) of that total increase.
Have HUBG and PACR been "asleep at the switch" for the past 9 years?
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.