Travel & Transportation THE NEXT GREAT BATTLE OVER HOTEL DISTRIBUTION AUTHORS Scot Hornick Jonathan Keane The battle for control of the customer is heating up between hotels and intermediaries. With annual revenues from online hotel bookings in the $35 billion range, it’s definitely a prize worth fighting for. Currently, nearly half the bookings come through third‑party intermediaries, which retain 15‑30% of the price of the room. Hotels see the opportunity to increase direct bookings and, thereby, to increase revenues and margins and, importantly, to collect more information about the customer. But to do so, they need to shift from a wholesale to a retail mindset, and improve the value proposition to the consumer.
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THE NEXT GREAT BATTLE OVER HOTEL DISTRIBUTION ......of hotel web sites and online travel agencies (Travelocity, Expedia, etc.), along with more opaque shopping sites (Hotwire, Priceline,
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Travel & Transportation
THE NEXT GREAT BATTLE OVER HOTEL DISTRIBUTION
AUTHORS
Scot Hornick Jonathan Keane
The battle for control of the customer is heating up between hotels and
intermediaries. With annual revenues from online hotel bookings in the
1 James Smith v. Orbitz Worldwide, Inc., Expedia, Inc., Hotels.com LP, et al., class action complaint filed in US District Court, Northern District of Texas, August 21, 2012.
SCENARIO II: THE (INTERMEDIARY) EMPIRE STRIKES BACK
As an increasing number of direct‑connect
requests swamps travel‑management
companies, travel agents, and online travel
agents, the industry concludes that the
direct‑connect model is not scalable and falls
back to a wholesale approach. At the same
time, consumer‑protection legislation limits
the complexity and unbundling of airline and
hotel offers. Agent intermediaries push for a
return to the old distribution method, with
room reservations delivered by GDSs (rather
ExHIBIT 3: DISTRIBUTION MARKET SCENARIOS
With all the uncertainty in how these battles will be resolved, one can easily imagine four or more
major scenarios for the future, each with its own implications for success.
• No analog of “full content agreement” emerges in hotel arena
• Hotel chains gradually increase their share of direct distribution by o�ering more compelling content and/or packages through direct channels
• TMC model persists for corporate bookings and TOs persist for European package, but leisure moves mostly through brand.com or through low-cost, direct-connected on-line leisure agencies
• Increasing number of direct-connect requests swamps TMCs and OTAs; industry determines that the direct-connect model is not scalable
• Consumer protection legislation limits the complexity and unbundling of airline and hotel o�ers
• GDSs enjoy resurgence in popularity and leverage airline and hotel consolidation to become the definitive source of travel industry content
• Hotel chains collaborate with meta-shoppers, marginalizing OTAs and tap aggregators as a source
• New intermediaries/OTAs are viewed as “supplier-friendly,” only charging on a cost-per-click basis and handing o� the traveler to the supplier for final transaction
• Google/ITA o�ers corporations a self-booking tool, which many readily incorporate into their corporate intranets; Microsoft counters with bing/farecast/powered tool
• Search engines and meta-shoppers marginalize OTAs, but then move into the transaction world (as Kayak has)
• TMCs adopt white label versions of these tools, integrate them with proprietary FOS, and begin to wean themselves from GDS technology
• New intermediaries aggressively steer customer behavior and attempt to capture ancillary revenues and commissions for themselves
DISTRIBUTION MARKET SCENARIOS
BACK TO THE FUTURE THE (INTERMEDIARY) EMPIRE STRIKES BACK
META-FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS FULL META-(STRAIGHT) JACKET
Under intense competition from rival airlines, Allegiant
Airlines has adapted its business plan to take advantage of
customer demand for package offers. Rather than advertise
itself as an airline, it has positioned itself as a travel company.
This is reflected in its slogan: “Travel is our deal.”
Before customers search for a flight on Allegiant’s website,
they are reminded that they will save money if they book their
flight and hotel (and car) together. After selecting flight dates,
customers are automatically taken to a page that allows
them to book a hotel for the nights of their visit, unless they
specifically opt out. They are then shown options for renting a
car. Finally, when the transaction is complete, customers are
recommended attractions near their destination.
Up to one third of Allegiant’s revenues come from hotel and
rental car bookings. During difficult times for the airlines
industry, Allegiant’s focus on addressing an unmet customer
need has been central to its success.
ExHIBIT 4: ANCILLARY REVENUE GROWTH AT ALLEGIANT
30% 3.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
REVENUE AS PERCENT OF TOTAL MARKET CAP INDEX
10% 1.0
20% 2.0
00%
LegacyCarrier
Allegiant
Low-costCarrier
Market cap index
Note: Ancillary revenue includes baggage, change fees and miscellaneous revenue, plus transportation revenue for LCCs. DAL indexed to Apr 2007 as Dec 31, 2006
not available. 2012 ancillary revenue data for Q1‑Q2.
Source: Planestats Income Statement, Google finance
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