The New Security Agenda Transnational Organised Crime and International Security Derek Lutterbeck, PhD GCSP.

The New Security AgendaThe New Security AgendaTransnational Organised Crime and Transnational Organised Crime and

International SecurityInternational Security

Derek Lutterbeck, PhDDerek Lutterbeck, PhD

GCSPGCSP

OverviewOverview

Changing Security ParadigmsChanging Security Paradigms

Transnational Organised Crime as a Transnational Organised Crime as a Security ChallengeSecurity Challenge

Transnational Organised Crime and Transnational Organised Crime and TerrorismTerrorism

Changing Security ParadigmsChanging Security Paradigms

Traditional ChallengesTraditional Challenges– state-basedstate-based– militarymilitary– externalexternal– directdirect– territorialterritorial– enemy strengthenemy strength– military stability military stability – conquestconquest

New ChallengesNew Challenges– non-state actorsnon-state actors– socio-economicsocio-economic– internal / transnationalinternal / transnational– diffusediffuse– non-territorialnon-territorial– state weaknessstate weakness– rule of lawrule of law– corruptioncorruption

European Security Strategy:European Security Strategy:“A Secure Europe in a Better World”“A Secure Europe in a Better World”

(12 December 2003)(12 December 2003)

““Large-scale aggression against any Member State is Large-scale aggression against any Member State is now improbable. Instead, Europe faces new threats now improbable. Instead, Europe faces new threats which are more diverse, less visible and less which are more diverse, less visible and less predictable” predictable”

Key threatsKey threatsTerrorismTerrorismProliferation of WMDProliferation of WMDRegional conflicts (Middle East, Kashmir, Great Regional conflicts (Middle East, Kashmir, Great Lakes region, Korean peninsula)Lakes region, Korean peninsula)State failureState failureOrganised CrimeOrganised Crime

UN High Level Panel:UN High Level Panel:““A more secure world: our shared

responsibility” (December 2004)(December 2004)

Poverty, infectious disease, environmental Poverty, infectious disease, environmental degradationdegradation

Inter-state Conflict Inter-state Conflict Conflict within states, including genocide and Conflict within states, including genocide and

other large-scale atrocitiesother large-scale atrocities Proliferation of nuclear, radiological, chemical, Proliferation of nuclear, radiological, chemical,

biological weaponsbiological weapons TerrorismTerrorism Transnational organised crimeTransnational organised crime

US National Security StrategyUS National Security Strategy

““Enemies in the past needed great armies and Enemies in the past needed great armies and great industrial capabilities to endanger great industrial capabilities to endanger America. Now, shadowy networks of America. Now, shadowy networks of individuals can bring great chaos and individuals can bring great chaos and suffering to our shores for less than it costs suffering to our shores for less than it costs to purchase a single tank.”to purchase a single tank.”

(National Security Strategy of the US, 2002)(National Security Strategy of the US, 2002)

Security concerns of EU citizensSecurity concerns of EU citizens

What do People fear most?What do People fear most?(Human Security Centre poll in 11 countries)(Human Security Centre poll in 11 countries)

Defence

Deepening and Widening of Deepening and Widening of SecuritySecurity

VerticalVertical

Regional/ Regional/ internationalinternational

SocietySociety

HumanHuman

SectoralSectoral

HealthHealth

EconomyEconomy

Environment Environment

PoliticsPolitics

State

New Security Actors within StatesNew Security Actors within States

Interior/justice ministriesInterior/justice ministries

Finance ministriesFinance ministries

Environment ministriesEnvironment ministries

Energy ministriesEnergy ministries

Health ministriesHealth ministries

Multilateral Security ActorsMultilateral Security Actors

International OrganisationsInternational Organisations

- - the UN and peace operationsthe UN and peace operations

- specialised agencies- specialised agencies

Regional OrganisationsRegional Organisations

- - military operationsmilitary operations

- peace-building- peace-building

- multilateral police missions- multilateral police missions

Private Security ActorsPrivate Security Actors

NGOsNGOs

Multinational corporationsMultinational corporations

Private military companies Private military companies

Transnational criminal networksTransnational criminal networks

Terrorist groupsTerrorist groups

Convergence of Internal and Convergence of Internal and External SecurityExternal Security

TransnationalTransnational challenges (such as challenges (such as transnational organised crime or transnational transnational organised crime or transnational terrorism)terrorism)

→→ blurring of separation between internal and blurring of separation between internal and external security external security →→ convergence of police and military functionsconvergence of police and military functions

Increasing involvement of military forces in Increasing involvement of military forces in domestic security missions (critical infrastructure domestic security missions (critical infrastructure protection, border control etc.)protection, border control etc.)Internationalisation of policingInternationalisation of policing

Transnational organised crime: Transnational organised crime: factors behind its expansionfactors behind its expansion

Globalisation:Globalisation:– Economic and financial liberalisationEconomic and financial liberalisation– Increasing mobility and migrationIncreasing mobility and migration

Political liberalisationPolitical liberalisation State weakness / economic State weakness / economic underdevelopment in some regions of the underdevelopment in some regions of the worldworld

Definition of Organised CrimeDefinition of Organised Crime

UN Convention Against Transnational UN Convention Against Transnational Organised Crime:Organised Crime:

““Organized criminal group” = structured group of Organized criminal group” = structured group of three or more persons acting together, over a three or more persons acting together, over a period of time, with the aim of committing one or period of time, with the aim of committing one or more serious crimes ”more serious crimes ”

US Organised Crime Control Act:US Organised Crime Control Act:““The unlawful activities of...a highly organized, The unlawful activities of...a highly organized,

disciplined association...”disciplined association...”

The Network of Organised CrimeThe Network of Organised Crime

BusinessOrganized Crime

State Authorities

BriberyCorruptionPartiality

FraudMoney launderingProtection racketsFront Companies

Smuggling

BriberyCronyism

Economic espionageMonopolyProtection

Transnational crimeTransnational crime

Crossing of state borders:Crossing of state borders:

perpetratorsperpetrators

productsproducts

peoplepeople

proceedsproceeds

digital signalsdigital signals

Transnational crimeTransnational crime

Transnational crimes committed by:Transnational crimes committed by:

individualsindividuals

licit enterpriseslicit enterprises

organised crime groupsorganised crime groups

terroriststerrorists

governmentsgovernments

Transnational organised crime: Transnational organised crime: Principal sources of revenue Principal sources of revenue

(estimates)(estimates)Drug trafficking: 321 billion USD (retail Drug trafficking: 321 billion USD (retail level)level)

Human trafficking: 10 - 15 billion USDHuman trafficking: 10 - 15 billion USD

Illicit arms trafficking: 2 -10 billion USDIllicit arms trafficking: 2 -10 billion USD

Illicit Drug Trade in ComparisonIllicit Drug Trade in Comparison

Threat of transnational organised Threat of transnational organised crimecrime

DirectDirect security threat to weak states security threat to weak states

IndirectIndirect security threat to less vulnerable security threat to less vulnerable statesstates

Threat to:Threat to:– good governancegood governance– state institutionsstate institutions– legal markets / economic developmentlegal markets / economic development– individualsindividuals

Dimensions of state weaknessDimensions of state weakness

Territorial:Territorial: territories escaping control of territories escaping control of state (lawless areas, no-go zones etc.)state (lawless areas, no-go zones etc.)

Legal:Legal: gaps in legislation which organised gaps in legislation which organised crime may exploitcrime may exploit

Political:Political: lack of legitimacy, corruption lack of legitimacy, corruption

Economic:Economic: poor economic performance, poor economic performance, large illegal economylarge illegal economy

Social:Social: ‘culture’ of criminality / corruption ‘culture’ of criminality / corruption

Current trends in Organised Crime Current trends in Organised Crime in the EU areain the EU area

(Europol assessment)(Europol assessment)Organised crime dominated by indigenous groups, Organised crime dominated by indigenous groups, but growing links with non-indigenous groupsbut growing links with non-indigenous groups

‘‘Ethnic’ basis of organised crimeEthnic’ basis of organised crime

Linked to illegal immigration / fraudulent asylum Linked to illegal immigration / fraudulent asylum applicationsapplications

Widening of crime portfolio (diversification)Widening of crime portfolio (diversification)

Trend towards more loose network structuresTrend towards more loose network structures

Abuse of legal company structures to conduct or Abuse of legal company structures to conduct or hide criminal activitieshide criminal activities

Transnational Organised Crime as Transnational Organised Crime as an Issue of ‘Hard Security’an Issue of ‘Hard Security’

Organised Crime and TerrorismOrganised Crime and Terrorism

Organised Crime and Violent ConflictOrganised Crime and Violent Conflict

Organised Crime and Nuclear Material Organised Crime and Nuclear Material TraffickingTrafficking

Transnational Organised Crime and Transnational Organised Crime and Terrorism : Key DifferencesTerrorism : Key Differences

Transnational Transnational Organised crimeOrganised crime

Economic motivationEconomic motivation

Seeks to weaken but Seeks to weaken but not to destroy state not to destroy state institutionsinstitutions

TerrorismTerrorism

Political motivationPolitical motivation

Seeks to destroy the Seeks to destroy the state or to change the state or to change the political system in political system in fundamental waysfundamental ways

Convergence between organised Convergence between organised crime and terrorismcrime and terrorism

Alliances between organised crime groups Alliances between organised crime groups and terroristsand terrorists

Terrorist groups pursuing criminal Terrorist groups pursuing criminal activities (to finance their activities)activities (to finance their activities)

Organised crime groups using terror Organised crime groups using terror tactics (to shape their operational tactics (to shape their operational environment)environment)

Hybrid groupsHybrid groups

Example of Terrorism/Crime nexus: Example of Terrorism/Crime nexus: Madrid bombingsMadrid bombings

Involvement of both religious extremists and Involvement of both religious extremists and criminalscriminalsKey role: Moroccan drug trafficking network (Jamal Key role: Moroccan drug trafficking network (Jamal Ahmidan)Ahmidan)Purchase of explosives against hashishPurchase of explosives against hashishOther criminal activities: robbery, credit and phone Other criminal activities: robbery, credit and phone card fraud, vehicle theft etc.card fraud, vehicle theft etc.Importance of contacts from prisonImportance of contacts from prisonRadicalisation of criminals in prisonRadicalisation of criminals in prisonCriminals not only in support/logistics but also in Criminals not only in support/logistics but also in operational / attack role operational / attack role

Organised Crime and Violent Organised Crime and Violent ConflictConflict

Changing nature of violent conflictChanging nature of violent conflict

Organised crime have impact on Organised crime have impact on – outbreakoutbreak– coursecourse– aftermath aftermath

of armed conflictof armed conflict

Fighting Transnational Organised Crime:Fighting Transnational Organised Crime:International Police CooperationInternational Police Cooperation

Expansion of police cooperation in response to Expansion of police cooperation in response to growth in cross-border crimegrowth in cross-border crimeInternationalInternational – InterpolInterpol– G8 Lyon GroupG8 Lyon Group

RegionalRegional– Europol Europol – SECI Centre (Bucharest)SECI Centre (Bucharest)

BilateralBilateral cooperation between countries cooperation between countries– Exchange of evidenceExchange of evidence– Legal assistanceLegal assistance– Extradition etc.Extradition etc.

Some Dilemmas in Fighting Some Dilemmas in Fighting Transnational Organised CrimeTransnational Organised Crime

Combating illicit cross-border activities Combating illicit cross-border activities typically also hampers legal cross-border typically also hampers legal cross-border exchangesexchanges

More intrusive policing might threaten civil More intrusive policing might threaten civil libertiesliberties

Criminal employment might be better than Criminal employment might be better than high unemploymenthigh unemployment

Dirty money might be better than no FDIDirty money might be better than no FDI