The New Green Energy Economy Dr. Ryne P. Raffaelle Vice President for Research and Associate Provost Rochester Institute of Technology & Former Director.

The New Green Energy Economy

Dr. Ryne P. RaffaelleVice President for Research and Associate ProvostRochester Institute of Technology &Former Director of the National Center for Photovoltaics at theNational Renewable Energy Lab

The New Green Energy Economy is all about how we will meet the exponentially growing need for energy in a way that is sustainable.

The word sustainability is derived from the Latin sustinere (tenere, to hold; sus, up).

Dictionaries provide more than ten meanings for sustain, the main ones being to “maintain", "support", or "endure.”

Brundtland Commission of the United Nations on March 20, 1987.

“Sustainable Development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

For development to be truly sustainable, requires that it be socially acceptable, environmentally friendly, and economically viable.

More often than not, energy is the “long-pole” when it comes to sustainable development.

“Access to environmentally and socially sustainable energy is essential to reduce poverty. Globally, over 1.4 billion people are still without access to electricity. About 3 billion use solid fuels — wood, charcoal, coal, and dung for cooking and heating.” – World Bank, 2011

For every 1 American there are 3.9 people in India and 4.3 people in China who currently use a small fraction of the energy we do.

1931“We are like tenant farmers chopping down the fence around our house for fuel when we should be using Nature's inexhaustible sources of energy — sun, wind and tide. ... I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

Thomas Edison, in conversation with Henry Ford and Harvey Firestone as quoted in Uncommon Friends : Life with Thomas Edison, Henry Ford, Harvey Firestone, Alexis Carrel & Charles Lindbergh (1987) by James Newton, p. 31

Fastest growing sector in the energy market is renewables, but we have a very long way to go!

~16% of global final energy consumption comes from renewables - 10% traditional biomass, 3.4% hydroelectricity, 2.8% new renewables (small hydro, modern biomass, wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuels).

REN 21, Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century

Renewable energy is energy which comes from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat, which are renewable (naturally replenished).

Roughly 4.6 billion years ago . . .

“Let there be light”

What a source of power indeed…

The amount of sunlight that hits the Earth's surface in one hour is enough to power the entire world for a year!

1839 Edmund Becquerel discovers the photovoltaic effect.

1860 - 1881 Auguste Mouchout was the first man to patent a design for a motor running on solar energy.

1872John Ericsson's developed his “Sun Motor.”

1940Russell Ohl discovers the “p-n junction”

1941Russell Ohl receives a US Patent 2402662, "Light sensitive device"

1954 AT&T Bell Labs unveils it new “solar battery” developed by Gerald Pearson, Daryl Chapin, and Calvin Fuller which was the first modern silicon solar cell.

1950’s

Average insolation kWh/m2/day

The U.S. has the best solar energy resource of any major industrialized nation on the Earth.

3.6 TW US Consumption

10% 20% 30% 40%

PV Costs and Production

• PV prices have been in free-fall over past couple of years.• Large differences in utility scale versus commercial rooftop and residential.

Reasons:• Efficiency Increases• Economies of Scale• Increased

Competition

Worldwide PV production grew by > 100% in 2010!

23,889 MW

~ 80% of PV production is in Asia~ 80% of deployment is in Europe

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

215 190

237

103

290 272

210

473

582

300 282

504 498

260 250

397

200

400 360

399

595 586

520 525

1,100

704

400 450

490 500 550

600

700 750

805

900 950

1,228 1,250

MW

2008-2010 Production (MW)

2008 Production 2009 Production 2010E Production

Industry Trends

Current U.S. Solar Energy Production

Solar Advisor Model with real inputs (i.e., South facing, 25 degree fixed tilt,4.3 kW DC system size, Local, state, and federal incentives as of October 2010, and the PV system financed as part of a 30 year home loan)

25 Year 80% BOL warrantees are the industry standard.

<1% degradation/year

Arrays installed after 2000 have been much more reliable, especially in the case of thin films.

85kW Shell Solar CIGS in Wales

216 Würth CIGS modulesin Tübingen, Germany

In Southern California

Building Integrated Photovoltaics

> 40% Efficient

Concentrating Photovoltaics

Inverted Metamorphic III-V Solar Cell

Maricopa Solar | Maricopa County, Arizona (Near Phoenix) | Salt River Project (SRP) 1.5MW | Total of 60 SunCatcher™ Power Systems. Operating since January 2010.

Roll-to-roll Thin Films

• Markup on all materials (module, inverter, BoS) included in ‘Installer Overhead & Profit’Residential $0.89/WDC, Commercial $0.55, Utility (fixed) $0.31

• Reflects inventory costs (interest during construction), contingency

Energy Storage can be achieved in a wide variety of ways including: compressed air, batteries, hydrogen, and flywheels.

Concentrated Solar Thermal

Pumped hydro energy storage

The rechargeable battery market has grown 6 fold over the past 20 years.

Li ion batteries have been the fastest growing part of that sector.

All Electric Vehicles from China

The Hydrogen Economy

“We do not inherit the earth, we borrow it from our children”

Thank You

Happy 50th Dr. Raffaelle