The Need for Resilient Cities in the Mediterranean in an Era of Climate and Environmental Change The Mediterranean Region as a Complex System: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities Prof. Oded Potchter Department of Geography and the Human Environment, Tel Aviv University, Israel Email: [email protected]
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The Need for Resilient Cities in the
Mediterranean in an Era of Climate
and Environmental Change
The Mediterranean Region as a Complex System:
Challenges, Risks and Opportunities
Prof. Oded PotchterDepartment of Geography and the Human Environment, Tel Aviv University, Israel
Background• In 1800, only 3% of the world's population lived in urban
areas. By 1950, 30% of the world's population lived in cities.
• Today, 54 % of the world’s population lives in urban areas, a proportion that is expected to increase to 66% by 2050. (http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html)
• “Managing urban areas has become one of the most important development challenges of the 21st century. Our success or failure in building sustainable cities will be a major factor in the success of the post-2015 UN development agenda,”.(John Wilmoth, Director of UN DESA’s Population Division).
Urban population in Mediterranean countries increased between
1970 and 2010 from 54 to 66 %, with an average growth rate of
3.1 % a year. The south and east Mediterranean is urbanizing
more rapidly than any other region of the world. (Plan Bleu
computations based on UNDESA 2010).
Climatic threats to Mediterranean Cities
• The combined effect of global warming and urban warming.
• Higher Incidence of heat waves.• Higher incidence of cold waves.• Higher frequency of atmospheric anomalies
(storms, unreliable precipitation patterns, drought and desertification).
• Increasing incidence of dust storms due to wars and desertification.
• Sea level rise.
Environmental Hazards, Risks, Shocks and Stresses for City Habitats and Infrastructure
in the Mediterranean
Concentrations of trace metals and Persistent Organic Pollutants
Environmental Hazards, Risks and Stresses for Cities Habitats in the Mediterranean
Sensitivity to flood losses in major coastal cities Temperature Anomalies in the Mediterranean
Climatic conditions in the Mediterranean cities
will become more difficult in the future, as
climate change will severely affect the
environment
Resilience thinking is a new lens for looking a the natural world we are embedded in and the man-
made world we have imposed upon it.”
Source: Ward C (2007) ‘Deisel-Driven Bee Slums and ImpotentTurkeys: The Case for Resilience’.
resilient cities definition: “A Resilient City is one that has developed capacities
to help absorb future shocks and stresses to its social, economic, and technical
systems and infrastructures so as to still be able to maintain essentially the
same functions, structures, systems, and identity.”
Source: Working Definition, ResilientCity.org
Global Warming
• In the twentieth century the average global air temperature
increased by 0.760C, and the linear warming trend over the past
50 years is nearly twice that for the last 100 years. This trend of
rising global air temperature is likely to continue (IPCC, 2015).
• Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since
modern record keeping began in 1880. Globally-averaged
temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014.
• The 2015 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend,
according to analyses by scientists at NASA (www.nasa.gov).
• Global warming is accompanied by several climatic changes,
such as an increase of specific humidity which is likely to
aggravate the heat stress values (Willett et al., 2008).
The Urban Heat Island (UHI)The UHI is a phenomenon characterizing the urban climate. It can be defined as the difference between temperatures measured in the urban space and those in the non-urban space surrounding it (Oke, 1987).
∆T°C = Turban – T rural
Population and maximum UHI intensity
Source: Fujibe, 2009
The combined effect of global warming and urban warming
• An increase the duration and intensity of heat
waves in cities and prolongation of the hot season
in cities.
• Increases in heat stress within the cities.
• Increased mortality ( the European heat wave in
2003 caused 20 thousand deaths and in 2010 about
30 thousand in Russia).
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Three scenarios: Predictions of urban warming of four cities in Israel for the year 2060
Observation Model Proje ctions with 3 Growth Scenarios
Observation Model Projections with 3 Growt h ScenariosObservation Mo del Projections with 3 Growth Scenarios
Tel Aviv (1,227,000 pop, 2011) Jerusalem (773,000 pop,2011)