The Near Earth Object Threat: An Effective Public Communication Strategy

THE NEAR EARTH OBJECT THREAT:

AN EFFECTIVE PUBLIC

COMMUNICATION STRATEGY

Matteo Emanuelli

Bruno Sarli

Niels Van Der Pas

Lauren Lyons

Behnoosh Meskoob

Daniele Paglialunga

Shripad Jagdale

3 October, 2014

International Astronautical Congress

Toronto, Canada

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS

PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 2

Introduction: Space Generation Congress 2014

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy

• Action Team 14 and IAWN

• Space Generation Congress 2013

Recommendations

• Communication Plan

• Education Program

• Case Study

• Asteroid Intensity Scale

10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 3

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

Action Team 14 and IAWN

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 5

Action Team 14 and IAWN

Action Team on Near-Earth Objects (AT-14) established in 2001 by UN

COPUOS to review content, structure and organization of efforts on NEOs

and make proposals to foster international coordination.

In 2013 UN endorsed the creation of International Asteroid Warning Network

(IAWN) and Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG)

Space Generation Congress

Recommendations

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 7

Space Generation Congress Recommendations

• Effective communication plan: long, medium and short-term actions

• NEO Education Program: General public / Policy makers / Students

• Identifying communicators at national level

• Recognized importance of an Impact Disaster Planning Advisory Group

• New NEO intensity scale to connect threat and emergency procedures

• In case of danger, international agreement on data sharing, emergency

aids and collaboration

Communication Plan

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 9

Communication Plan

• Preservation of lives: communication, security

and immediate action

• Panic to be avoided, threat not to be

underestimated. Inform on prevention

and mitigation actions

• Target: Governments & Public. Start

education program. Foster truthful

depiction of NEOs and their effects

and assure reliable information to

media. Avoid spreading of false

information

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 10

Communication Plan

MSN UK (16/08/2014)

Education Program

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 12

Education Program

Case Study

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy

• Pretty important media coverage

• “What if” situation

What if…the 2013 observation by ESA’s Herschel Space Observatory would have confirmed a possible impact in 2036?• Torino Scale 5

• Regional destruction, millions of casualties

• Governments to operate with IAWN

• Communication and transparency

• Movements of opinion (religion, conspiracy theories, economic lobbies etc.) opposing early preparations

LONG-TERM is critical

• 2029. New observations confirm the impact

• Global economic crisis

• General panic mitigated by communication plan and education program

• Actions to relocate population from danger areas

10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 14

Case Study: 99942 Apophis

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy

NEO Intensity Scale (NIS)

• Event’s magnitude

• Position on the globe (population density, building structure)

• Only for 8,9,10 of Torino scale

• Future works: take into consideration other emergency scales and studies

10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 15

Asteroid Intensity Scale

• To categorize impact hazard: Torino

Scale & Palermo Technical Impact

Hazard Scale

• Different scale to take into

consideration only the effect on

ground, connected to mitigation

actions

• Inspired by Mercalli intensity scale

for earthquakes (distinct from

Richter scale, which measures the

energy released)

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 16

Conclusions

• Necessity of Communication plan: recent alarms with 1950 DA

has shown traditional and non-traditional media are not ready.

• Establishment of international and national emergency services to

have communications lines in place before they are needed

• NIS based on consequences of impacts.

Special Thanks

Ray & Carol Williamson

IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective

Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014

IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 17

Thank you!

Questions?