The National Development Plan of The Bahamas: Human Capital and Resilient Youth The National Development Plan Secretariat 1.

The National Development Plan of The Bahamas:

Human Capital and Resilient Youth

The National Development Plan Secretariat

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Vision 2040: A Phased Approach

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Phase 1 NDP: State of the Nation Report

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Demographics Matter

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Population of The Bahamas by Age Groupings, Dept of Statistics

Large working age population with

potential for productive or unproductive

activities

Some Key Conclusions

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People Matter:Human Capital Pillar Critical

An Examination of Total Factor Productivity

6http://www.cepal.org/portofspain/publicaciones/xml/7/38247/lcarl244.pdf

Large and Negative

The Importance of Social Policy to Development

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Human Capital Institutions• Structures are in place to support human capital, although outcomes

present challenges: – High Health Spending: There is a functioning public health system: traditional hospitals,

clinic networks, mental health & drug treatment facilities.

– High Educational Spending: Education is compulsory for children between the ages of 5 and 16, and free in the country’s 168 public schools. There are also 99 private schools, a college, (soon to become The University of The Bahamas) and The Bahamas Technical and Vocational Institute. A number of tertiary institutions exist, private sector training institutes, National Training Agency, etc.

– Expanding Social Services: The Ministry of Social Services, the National Insurance Board and the Ministry of Labour oversee the country’s social protection systems.

• Are we reaching everyone we should be reaching? Are we effective? Are we measuring?

Human Capital Conclusions, cont’d

• HDI relatively good – but other indicators show lackluster human capital

outcomes: 50% vocational school graduation rate, a rise in poverty, violent crime, income inequity, poor educational outcomes and skills training.

• Employers often note difficulty in finding employees with the right skill set which is exacerbated by brain drain.

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Labour Market Issues: Age

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37.6

76.871.4

16.7

42.9

83.7 79.5

30.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

(15-24) (25-44) (45-64) (65 +)

Female Male

29.4

13.8

7.6 6.7

26.0

12.3

11.58.6

0

6

12

18

24

30

(15-24) (25-44) (45-64) (65 +)

Female Male

Employment and Unemployment Rates by Age and Gender

Labour Market Issues: Education

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4.7

14.9

14.5

9.3

4.6

8.7

18.6

14.2 11.8

4.9

0

4

8

12

16

20

Primary U High School F High School Vocational College

Female Male

26.0 20.4

48.9

68.5 71.178.0

37.8 40.4

62.4

77.180.5

83.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

No Schooling Primary U High School F High School Vocational College

Female Male

Employment and Unemployment Rates by Educational Level and Gender

Population Educational Profile

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Spending on Education

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Analysis of Attainment

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Grade C and D Passes in Five or More BGCSE’s

Number of Candidates Registered to Sit Exams 2010 - 2014

BGCSE Results: Looking Beyond the Averages to Students Passions. Making School Interesting Again is Key

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Subject 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Art and Design A C- C- C- C C- C+ C- C+ C C-

Art and Design B C+ C C+ C+ C+ C+ C B- C+ C+

Art and Design C C C C- C C- C+ C- C C- C-

Auto Mechanics D- D+ C- C- C C C C+ C- C-

Biology D- D- D- D- D- D- D- D- D- D-

Bookkeeping E E F+ E E- E- D- D E+ D

Carpentry/Joinery C+ C C+ C- B- C+ B- C C- C-

Chemistry C- C- C- C- C- C- C- C- C- C-

Clothing Construction C D+ D- D D D- D D+ D D+

Combined Science D D D+ D D D D+ C- D+ D+

Commerce D D D D D D D D+ C- C-

Economics D D D D- D D+ D D+ D+ D+

Electrical Installation D+ C- C- D D+ D+ D- D+ D C-

English Language D D- D- D D D D D D D+

Foods and Nutrition C+ C C C C C C- C- C- C-

French D+ C- C- C- C- C- C- C C- C-

Geography C- C- C C C C C C C C

Graphical Communication D+ C- D+ D+ C- C- C- C C- C

History C- C C C C C- C- C- C D+

Literature D+ C- C- D+ C- C- C- C- C- C

Mathematics E E E E E- E- E- E+ E E

Music B- C+ C+ C+ C+ C C- C C+ B-

Office Procedures D+ D E D D- D+ D C- C- C-

Physics C- C- C- C- C- C- C- C- C- C

Religious Studies C C C C C C C- C- C C

Spanish C- C- C- C- C C- C C C C

Typewriting/Keyboarding C- C- D- D+ C D+ D+ D+ D+ DTable 9 Mean Grade by Subject, BGCSE 2005 - 2014Source: National Examination Confidential Report BGCSE 2014, MOEST

Gross Tertiary Enrollment Rates

NDP must explore poverty

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Poverty Indicators

Indicators 2001 2013

Poverty Rate 9.3 12.8

Poverty Line (per person per year) $2,683 $4,247

Population below poverty line 27,800 43,000

Poverty Rates and Percent of The Poor and Poverty Gap by Island group: 2001, 2013

2001 2013

RegionsPoverty Rate Poverty Gap

Regions Poverty Rate Poverty Gap

New Providence & Grand Bahama 8.33 2.58 New Providence 12.58 3.32

Grand Bahama 9.69 1.45

Abaco, Eleuthera, & Andros 13.19 3.73 Abaco 20.32 5.75

Andros and Eleuthera 17.33 5.48

Exuma & Long Island 16.64 5 Exuma and Long Island 14.71 4.61

Other Family Islands 20.96 6.35 Other Family Islands 11.44 0.82

Poverty and Education

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Highest Levels of Education Competed and Highest Academic Exam Passed among Poor and None Poor : 2001, 2013

2001 2013Education level

completed Non-Poor Poor All PersonsEducation level

completed Non-Poor Poor All PersonsNo Schooling 2.18 6.97 2.51 No Schooling 6.55 12.18 7.26

Preschool/Kindergarten 4.21 6.01 4.44Primary School 11.43 21.8 12.16 Primary School 15.56 22.2 16.41

High School 65.45 68.6 65.67 High School 47.57 55.68 48.6College /University 16.65 1.28 15.58 College/ University 18.71 1.1 16.46

Technical/Vocational 4.29 1.35 4.08 Technical/Vocational 6.93 1.71 6.27 Other 0.3 0 0.26 Not Stated 0.17 1.12 0.29

Qualification Non-Poor Poor All Persons Qualification Non-Poor Poor All PersonsNone 52.13 85.32 54.9 None 38.49 66.79 42.1

School Leaving certificate 6.83 4.21 6.61 School Leaving certificate 10.61 11.84 10.77BJC, CXC Basix 15.36 7.37 14.69 BJC/PITMAN 1/ RSA/CXC 12.36 11.2 12.21

O Level, CXC General 12.39 2.33 11.55 GCE O Level/BGCSE/Pit 13.39 6.06 12.45A level, Associate 4.51 0.41 4.16 GCE A Level / RSA 3/ 1.31 0.4 1.19

Degree or Certificate 6.16 0.78 5.47Bachelor 3.61 0 3.31 Degree at Bachelor's 6.86 0.29 6.03

Other degree 5.17 0.37 4.77 Degree above Bachelor 2.87 0 2.5 Professional Certificate 1.29 0 1.12 Other Trade Certificate 6.36 1.25 5.71 Not Stated 0.31 1.38 0.45

SOURCE: The Department of Statistics

Youth Violence and Crime

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Source: IDB

Bahamas Crime Statistics

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Crime Statistics 2011-2014

2011 2012 % chge 2013 % chge 2014 % chgeCrimes Against Persons

Murder 127 111 -13 119 7 123 3Attempted Murder 12 19 58 15 -21 22 47

Manslaughter 1 1 0 4 300 3 -25Rape 107 97 -9 105 8 75 -29

Attempted Rape 28 12 -57 22 83 12 -45Unlawful Sexual Intercourse 179 167 -7 165 -1 111 -33

Armed Robbery 998 1,099 10 1,022 -7 920 -10Robbery 369 361 -2 365 1 350 -4

Attempted Robbery 43 31 -28 30 -3 31 3Sub-total 1,864 1,898 1,847 -3 1,647

Crime Against Property Burgulary 340 309 -9 275 -11 188 -32

Housebreaking 3,242 2,875 -11 2,265 -21 1,756 -22Shopbreaking 942 971 3 912 -6 785 -14

Stealing 1,940 1,909 -2 1,952 2 1,558 -20Stealing from Vehicle 2,490 2,284 -8 2,465 8 2,066 -16

Stolen Vehicle 1,330 1,332 0 1,157 -13 879 -24Sub-total 10,284 9,680 -7 9,026 4 7,232

Total 12,148 11,578 10,873 8,879

SOURCE:- Fielding "Crime and Criminal Justice in The Bahamas" RBPF statistics for 2013-2014; US Department of State "Crime and Safety Report" for 2011-2012

Homicide Rate Map

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Source: https://www.unodc.org/documents/gsh/pdfs/2014_GLOBAL_HOMICIDE_BOOK_web.pdf

Root Causes of Crime Study

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SOURCE:- Fielding "Crime and Criminal Justice in The Bahamas" ," National Crime Commission 1998. Survey of Crime in The Bahamas"

People Matter:Human Capital Pillar Critical

Internet Usage for the Caribbean

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Internet Usage and Population Statistics for the CaribbeanCARIBBEAN Population % Pop. Internet Usage, % Population Users Facebook

( 2014 Est. ) Carib. 30-Jun-14(Penetration) % Region SubscribersAnguilla 16,086 0.00% 10,424 64.80% 0.10% 7,200Antigua & Barbuda 91,295 0.20% 81,545 89.30% 0.50% 30,420Aruba 110,663 0.30% 87,313 78.90% 0.50% 53,820Bahamas 321,834 0.80% 293,875 91.30% 1.70% 167,920Barbados 289,680 0.70% 224,588 77.50% 1.30% 122,220Bonaire, St.Eustatius, Saba 22,303 0.10% 20,956 94.00% 0.10% n/aBritish Virgin Islands 32,680 0.10% 14,620 44.70% 0.10% 9,360Cayman Islands 54,914 0.10% 47,003 85.60% 0.30% 30,380Cuba 11,047,251 26.40% 3,090,796 28.00% 18.00% n/aCuracao 147,695 0.40% 138,774 94.00% 0.80% n/aDominica 73,449 0.20% 43,335 59.00% 0.30% 24,420Dominican Republic 10,349,741 24.70% 6,054,013 58.50% 35.20% 2,821,700Grenada 110,152 0.30% 47,903 43.50% 0.30% 29,080Guadeloupe 468,205 1.10% 171,140 36.60% 1.00% 171,140Haiti 9,996,731 23.90% 1,217,505 12.20% 7.10% 202,660Jamaica 2,930,050 7.00% 1,581,100 54.00% 9.20% 677,960Martinique 410,508 1.00% 303,302 73.90% 1.80% 132,220Monserrat 5,215 0.00% 2,847 54.60% 0.00% n/aPuerto Rico 3,620,897 8.60% 2,675,843 73.90% 15.50% 1,292,780St. Barthélemy (FR) 7,267 0.00% 1,540 21.20% 0.00% n/a St. Kitts & Nevis 51,538 0.10% 41,230 80.00% 0.20% 22,600Saint Lucia 163,362 0.40% 142,900 87.50% 0.80% 59,000St. Martin (FR) 31,530 0.10%n/a n/a 0.00% n/a St. Vincent & Grenadines 102,918 0.20% 76,000 73.80% 0.40% 38,640Sint Maarten (NL) 40,289 0.10%n/a n/a n/a n/aTrinidad & Tobago 1,223,916 2.90% 780,858 63.80% 4.50% 484,780Turks & Caicos 49,070 0.10% 14,760 30.10% 0.10% 13,900US Virgin Islands 104,170 0.20% 47,189 45.30% 0.30% 4,880TOTAL CARIBBEAN 41,873,409 100.00% 17,211,359 41.10% 100.00% 6,397,080

NOTES: (1) The Caribbean Statistics were updated for June 30, 2014. (2) CLICK on each country name for detailed individual country and regional statistics. (3) The demographic (population) numbers are based mainly on data contained in Census Bureau. (4) Bermuda is included together with the North American countries according to the United Nations

Statistical Division listings. (5) The most recent usage information comes mainly from the data published by Nielsen Online , ITU, Facebook , and other reliable sources. (6) Facebook subscriber data is for December 31, 2012, the last data available. (7) Data may be cited, giving due credit and establishing an active link back back to Internetworldstats.com. (7) For

definitions and help, see the site surfing guide. Copyright © 2014, Miniwatts Marketing Group. All rights reserved.

Business Climate Matters: Functions of Productivity, Competitiveness

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Green outline indicates that there are improvements underway

Looking Forward: Using SDG 8 as a Guide

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Bahamas Specific Adaptations• People focused development plan is needed. Must address barriers to being a productive

citizen• Disparities in public and private school attainment must be addressed• Examining new training delivery methods: technology• Skills upgrading at all levels is critical

– Early intervention (grade 3 boost, then downward)– Schools need to refocus on preparation to something else, not finishing.– Training that matches business needs

• Creating a passion for learning, work and service is important– Cultural issues that must be discussed as part of the NDP

• Soft skills matter– Must be introduced throughout formal education

• Some innovations underway to ensure “qualifications” after leaving school (Bahamas GED)• Given the incidence of youth and violence and crime, must address reform• Youth empowerment through new career paths: Orange Economy, Entrepreneurial

mentoring

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Questions?

The National Development Plan