THE MISSING LINK RESOURCES - ovamenglish.be Potocnik.pdf · EUR per 1000 pkm Externalities and cost to society EUR per 1000 pkm Curren t Circular scenario, 2050-74% Curren t Circular

THE MISSING LINK

Č

RESOURCES

For the first time in a human history we face the emergence of a single, tightly coupled human social-ecological system of planetary scope.

We are more interconnected and interdependent than ever.

Our individual and collective responsibility has enormously increased.

EMPTY WORLD AND THE FULL WORLD

Source: Club of Rome: Simplified after Herman Daly

Labour and Infrastructure limiting factors of human

wellbeing

Natural resources and Environmental sinks limiting factors of human wellbeing

In the 21st Century we do not have any more the luxury of thinking and acting based on short term logic and interests

OUR ECONOMY …

GLOBAL MATERIAL FLOWS AND RESOURCE PRODUCTIVITY (1970-2017)

•Consumption has been stronger driver of growth in than population growth

•High-income countries are currently consuming 10 times more per person than low-income countries

•Global material productivity – USD per kg - started to decline around the year 2000. The decline is attributable to a shift in the share of global output from highly material productive economies to less productive economies.

•Global material resource use is expected to reach nearly 90 billion tonnes in 2017 and may more than double from 2015 to 2050. The level of wellbeing achieved in wealthy industrial countries cannot be generalised globally based on the same system of production and consumption

Price Signals: Finacial Capital OvervaluedHuman Capital UndervaluedNatural Capital not Valued

Market Producers/Consumers “Rational“ Behaviour

Economic modelInbuilt Economic, Social, Environmental Inbalances

LIVING WELL WITHIN ECOLOGICAL LIMITSECONOMIC SYSTEM FUNCTION OF ECOSYSTEM

Ecosystemservices

ECOSYSTEMS

Policy

Values

TechnologyScience

Market

Industry

SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEMSproviding social needs and value

Environmental externalities

Withdrawals from the ecosystems

Deposits Emissions Pollution

system

system system

Foodsystem

Energysystem

Mobilitysystem

Environmental externalities

Profits privatized

Costs socialized

MEASURES OF SOCIETAL DEVELOPMENT THAT INCLUDE NATURAL CAPITAL DEPLETION GROW MUCH SLOWER THAN GDP

Progress per capita3, globally, 1990-2010, real terms

Gross Domestic Product

Human Development Index

Genuine Progress Indicator1

Inclusive Wealth Index2

Considerations

SocialEconomic Natural

-0,2

0,8

-0,1

2,0 ✔

✔

✔✔

✔

✔✔

✔✔

SOURCE: UNEP (2014a), Kubiszewski et al. (2013)

1 1990-2005, as later data not available globally,2 IWI exists in two versions, one unadjusted, and one where adjustments are made for environmental damage, oil capital gains, and total factor productivity. The adjusted version is shown here,3 Global population growth was 1.6 percent per year during the period

C a p i t a l

It is not helping if you are walking

faster, if you are walking in the wrong direction!

OUR COMMITMENT AND OUR OBLIGATION

Trade-offs among various SDGs are unavoidable. Sustainable Consumption and Production is the most efficient strategy to mitigate trade-offs and create

synergies to resolve the development and environmental challenges articulated in the SDGs.

SDGs DIRECTLY DEPENDENT ON NATURAL RESOURCES

RESOURCE MANAGEMENT THE MISSING LINK

DECOUPLING IS THE IMPERATIVE OF MODERN ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC POLICY

In the mid-term, except in specific cases, resource shortage will not be the core

limiting factor of our (economic) development …

… but the environmental and health consequences caused by this excessive and

irresponsible use of resources will be!

•Started as an environmental initiative

•In two years it was transformed to an economic based initiative with positive environmental and health consequences

•In reality is should be seen as a part of the bigger picture of societal and cultural transformation needed to sustain the humanity and its prosperity central to SDG delivery.

CIRCULAR ECONOMY

OUTLINE OF A CIRCULAR ECONOMY SYSTEM

Foster system effectiveness by revealing and designing out negative externalities

Optimise resource yields by circulating products, components and materials in use at the highest utility at all times in both technical and biological cycles

Principles

2

3

Preserve and enhance natural capital by controlling finite stocks and balancing renewable resource flows

1

Minimise systematic leakage and negative externalities

Refurbish/remanufacture

Reuse/redistribute

Share

Stock management

RestoreVirtualise

Technical materials

Maintain

Biochemical feedstock

Cascades

Extraction ofbiochemical feedstock

Soil restauration

Biogas

Farming/ collection

Renewables

Biological materials

Renewables flow management

BiosphereProduct manufacturer

Service provider

Parts manufacturer

Collection Collection

Substitute materials

Finite materials

Renewable materials

Consumer User

Recycle

Regenerate

Source: Ellen MacArthur Foundation; McKinsey Center for Business and EnvironmenStiftungsfonds für Umweltökonomie und Nachhaltigkeit;

PRODUCER CONSUMER SOCIETY

EXTENDED PRODUCER RESPONSIBILITY

PRODUCER CONSUMER PRODUCER

Production ConsumptionEnd of Use

Design, business models

CIRCULAR ECONOMY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

LAND MATERIALSENERGYWATER

CARBON MANAGEMENT

DECOUPLING

CLIMATE

RESOURCES

Energy,Carbon management

Eco-system servicesEnvironmental sinks

Circular Economy,Land, Water,

MaterialsManagement

SUPPLY SIDE SOLUTIONS

DEMAND SIDE SOLUTIONS

NATURE BASEDSOLUTIONS

PILLARS FOR EFFICIENT CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY

DEMAND SIDE SOLUTIONS

Circular Economy,Land, Water,

MaterialsManagement

A MORE CIRCULAR ECONOMY CAN REDUCE EU EMISSIONS FROM MATERIALS BY 56%

EU emissions reductions potential from a more circular economy, 2050Mt CO2 per year

Circular business models

178

Materials recirculation

2050 Baseline Product materials efficiency

2050 Circular scenario

530

56 6

2234

-56%

SteelPlasticsAluminiumCement

A SHARED MOBILITY SCENARIO IS A HIGHLY ATTRACTIVE VISION FOR PASSENGER CARS

CO2 impact of materialsMt CO2 per year, Europe

Total cost of ownershipEUR per 1000 pkm

Externalities and cost to societyEUR per 1000 pkm

Current

Circular scenario,

2050

-74%

Current

Circular scenario,

2050

-77%

Circular scenario,

2050

18

Other

Baseline scenario,

2050

Plastics

Aluminium

Steel

60

-70%

pkm = passenger kilometre

WHAT NEXT ?

A lot could be done on that level due to relative autonomy of the governance and many concentrated CE related problems and opportunities Sharing Models, Mobility systems, Waste Recycling, Sustainable Buildings, Energy Efficiency …

ALL LEVELS DO MATTERCities and Regions

Encourage governments to strategically approach Circular Economy as an agenda for change to the the SDG compliant economy transformation. Many EU Member States have already prepared Circular Economy Roadmaps or/and Action Plans. Our aim should be to cover all EU Members states

ALL LEVELS DO MATTERNational Level

Set Circular Economy on the top of the agenda of the next EU Commission and future EU Council Presidencies.

• Start building the coalition of CE MS frontrunners ready to put CE as one of Presidency priorities.

• EC should signal that they are already putting together the ingredients of an Action plan for the next Commission to stay in the global lead and also demonstrate they are understanding the opportunity, which exists.

ALL LEVELS DO MATTEREuropean Union

•Establish a credible, mutually reinforcing link between circular economy/SDGs and competitiveness

•Build new coalitions for CE change by broadening ownership of the CE idea - partnering with those dealing with climate change, bio-economy, health, digital transformation, R and I, international relations, development aid, trade …

•Continue working on plastics but add also the product groups beyond the plastics (textile, food …) into future CE programmes, improve the extended producer responsibility and eco-design to deliver the whole potential and focus on economic signals and drivers – taxes, subsidies, public procurement

•Continue working on greening the financing and exploit the potential of blended finance logic and initiatives. Focus on retaining value in the CE process and on social aspects of CE transition (employment, inclusiveness, local benefits)

ALL LEVELS DO MATTEREuropean Union

Building new coalitions for by broadening ownership of the CE idea:

•Exploit all the possibilities of linking CE to already existing international initiatives, conventions in particular those around climate change and biodiversity loos. Bring closer also the science-policy interface bodies (IPPC, IPBES, IRP).

•Broaden the coalition of UN bodies around CE: UNEP, WHO, UNDP, UNIDO, UNCTAD would be first logical choices. A lot of knowledge has already been created in various circular economy related circles and we should figure out how to organise ourselves to use it more effectively.

•Extend political and policy presence from UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) to High Level Political Forum (HLPF) and UN General Assembly (UNGA)

ALL LEVELS DO MATTERGlobal Level

• Special attention should be given to least developed countries. There problems are different, solutions have to be specific, acknowledging differences. We need to be able to show how transitions can work, specifically for developing countries and resource exporters – what does leap-frogging to a CE mean for them.

• In that context we should in particular focus on social aspects of CE processes (employment, inclusiveness, local benefits), which are crucial for better acceptance of the CE. It should be understood that CE is not another western type of model used to expand to protect our own competitiveness and interests.

•Transition to a CE will inevitably lead also to some who will lose in transition. Many of them have in the past invested in good faith not being aware of negative side effects of their activities. We have to help them with public support and make sure that the transition will be fair and inclusive.

ALL LEVELS DO MATTERGlobal Level

•Work on an agreement on the cross-cutting key importance of natural resource use for all levels of human wellbeing.

•Question: Do we need something comprehensive and broad addressing all the natural resource management in the context of needed economic transition potentially organised in a form of an UN Convention for Natural Resources Management? This option should be carefully exploited.

ALL LEVELS DO MATTERGlobal Level

We should continue working actively to bringing together the leading business actors. Many businesses express that they are not afraid of more regulation but of unfairness, free riders and uncertain risk. If we make policies fair, consistent and reliable – we can work together across policy and business actors for a real transition.

ALL LEVELS DO MATTERGlobal Level

•Those that will be best able to cope with these limits (i.e. those that will create most value with least virgin or finite resources) should/will also be most competitive

•We need more creative destruction rather than destructive creation

From Limits to growth

To Growth of Limits

BETTER LINK CIRCULAR ECONOMY AND COMPETITIVENESS

IRP FLAGSHIP REPORT FOR UNEA 4 (2019)

Actions for the sustainable use of natural resources

BAU scenario of resource use and impacts (2060)

Impacts of resource use today

Sustainability scenario of reduced resource use and multiple benefits (2040)

Trends 1970 - today in natural resource use

📫 contribute to a better understanding of sustainable development from a natural resources perspective

📫 provide science-based options for policy innovations on how to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation while enhancing human wellbeing

Structure of the report Purpose of the report

IRP UNEA4 Report

Launch event of the “Global Resources Outlook: Implications for Business Leaders” at UNEA in Nairobi, Kenya – March, 8th-10th, 2019!

TO CONCLUDEWHY AND HOW?

CIRCULARITY AND GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

INTRODUCING MORE OF THE SHARING SOVEREIGNTY INSTEAD OF OWING SOVEREIGNTY

• Democratic political systems, public and financial institutions, have inbuilt short term focus and logic. The challenges we face require a real deep system change.

• Production and consumption systems are based on the logic of consumerism and growth. There is a clear lack of responsibility for the risks we are collectively facing and there is a clear lack of understanding what really matters for our common future.

• Transition to a more sustainable economy and society is only possible if it is just, fair and inclusive. We are currently failing to deliver. Social unrest is growing and it is high time to hear the echo of the streets and the voice of frustrated young generation.

MAJOR CHALLENGES WE FACE

• We have to fix a broken compass! In essence this means the development of new economic model based on sustainable consumption and production integrating all pillars of sustainability.

• To avoid globally extensive and inter-systemic crisis and frequent conflicts and to show that we are committed to implement what we have agreed in SDGs. Changes are unavoidable and humans are supposed to be intelligent. It is high time to prove it.

WHY IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP RESOURCES IN THE ECONOMY AND MAKE IT CIRCULAR?

REDEFINE RISK MANAGEMENT To make it compliant to SDGs

From being a pure product or service providers managing the risks of the company, farm, bank

through profit maximisation

To socially responsible companies, farmers, bankers … managing also the risks of the society

Change will not appear by waiting for the leadership of others, be the leaders on your level of governance and

authority … in politics, in business, academia, civil society, in making your investment decisions …

SHOW THE LEADERSHIP

1. Set targets and measure progress

2. Develop a national plan and act on key leverage points across all levels of governance

3. Take advantage of leapfrogging opportunities

4. Implement a policy mix that builds incentives and corrects market failures

5. Promote innovations toward a circular economy

6. Enable people to develop resource efficient solutions

7. Unlock the resistance to change

8. Strengthen cooperation and reach a consensus for coordinated global actions

GLOBAL RESOURCE ASSESMENT 2017Recommended policy strategies

When asked why he is speaking about himself always in a third person he replied something like that:

If one is such a genius like myself, it is very important to establish a healthy distance to himself.

HERCULE POIROT

Transition to the SDG’s compliant future is a truly Herculean Effort

THANK YOU

For more informationContact IRP Secretariat at [email protected] Visit our website at http://resourcepanel.org/