The Missing Link - · 2019. 7. 4. · NAPIC CAPTURES THE UNSOLD / OVERHANG UNITS AS: UNSOLD NOT CONSTRUCTED Projects with all approvals (DO, BP and APDL) but construction not yet

REI Group of Companies - Presentation by Dr. Daniele Gambero

The Missing LinkThe Affordable Financing Challenge: Available Options and Related Issues

Our track of record…..

AGENDA

Problem Statement: Alternative Definition of Affordable

Nation Based or State/Region Based Affordable Values?

Housing Demand: Oversupply, Shortfall or Wrong “Planning”?

Housing Demand: Greater Kl & Selangor Actual Numbers

Malaysian Households Debt: Spending Habits & Consequences

Housing Values, What Is Next for Malaysia: Singapore Case Study

Rent to Own: A Feasible Solution for Long Term Sustainability


Per Capita Income/Purchasing Power: The Key to Affordability

USD 1,835USD 1,135

USD 6,126

USD 1,730

USD 1,484

USD 2,891

USD 4,131

USD 55,236

USD 11,521

USD 7,329

AFFORDABLE VALUE AS MULTIPLIER OF ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME?

Definition of affordable house

A house is considered affordable when the household living in will use less than 35% of its net income to repay the related mortgage

In 2016 the Malaysian median household income RM5,228 x 35% = RM1,829.8



A house is considered affordable when the household living in will use less than 35% of its net income to repay the related mortgage

In 2016 the Greater KL median household income RM7,890 x 35% = RM2,761.5

AGENDA









One affordable value nationwide?

Source: DOSM

One affordable value nationwide?

Source: DOSM

Kedah 2013 2014 2015 2016

Selangor 2013 2014 2015 2016

Johor 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Housing-income Index 2014 by Sime Darby & University Malaya

GREATER KL HOUSING – INCOME INDEX 2014

MALAYSIAN “ESTIMATE” AFFORDABLE HOUSING VALUES

AGENDA









HOUSING EXISTING STOCK AND FUTURE SUPPLY

2017

RESIDENTIAL MARKET:EXISTING STOCK, FUTURE SUPPLY & ESTIMATE DEMAND

OVERHANG / UNSOLD UNITS:THE ROOTH OF THE PROBLEM

NAPIC CAPTURES THE UNSOLD / OVERHANG UNITS AS:

UNSOLD NOT CONSTRUCTED

Projects with all approvals (DO, BP

and APDL) but construction not

yet started

UNSOLD UNDER CONSTRUCTIONProject has been

launched and is under construction, first SPA signed and registered

COMPLETED: OVERHANG

Project has been completed and vacant possession delivered

MALAYSIA PERFORMANCE: OVERHANG / UNSOLD UNITS

Overhang average 20,000 units

Unsold average 73,154 units

MALAYSIA “UNDER” PERFORMANCE: OVERHANG / UNSOLD UNITS 3Q 2018

AGENDA









Source: REI Group Research & Census 2010

KUALA LUMPURWEALTH DISTRIBUTION & HOUSING DEMAND

#askthepropenomist

Source: REI Group Research & Census 2010

SELANGOR WEALTH DISTRIBUTION & HOUSING DEMAND

#askthepropenomist

GREATER KL HOUSING NEEDED SUPPLY BY VALUES

AGENDA









Source: Housing-income Index 2014 by Sime Darby & University Malaya

GREATER KL HOUSING – INCOME INDEX 2014

MALAYSIAN HOUSEHOLD DEBT - FACT FILE

Household NPL (Non Performing Loan) ratios, as per BNM and MBB reports, have been falling over the past few years from

7.5% in 2006 to just 1.7% mid 2018.

This underlines the good quality of the Malaysian HH debt

CAUSES OF BANKRUPCY

AGENDA









RESIDENTIAL MARKET:WHAT’S UP NEXT

“SINGAPORE CASE STUDY”



-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1990 2000 2010 2018

Singapore HDB Flat (720 sf)Historical Values Comparison

HDB Flat @ Ang Mo Kio HDB Flat @ Bedok HDB Flat @ Bukit Merah



MALAYSIAN LOW COST FLAT @ RM45,000 x 1,112% = RM500,400

AGENDA









MALAYSIAN HOUSE VALUES: THE LAND VALUE ISSUE

RM/psf 20

RM/psf 100

RM/psf 300

RM/psf 500

RM/psf 1,000

MALAYSIAN HOUSE PRICING DILEMMA

MALAYSIAN RENT TO OWN: POSSIBLE?

Greater KL location on Leasehold Government Land Owned by REIT @ 6.5% AROI 60% sold @ RM600 psf 40% rented for max 8 yrs Rental has 3 components: rent, management, saving Savings are managed by a SPV Koperasi


After 8 years tenants move to……


Suburban areas with affordable freehold land cost Land owned by Koperasi in JV with developer Koperasi members will benefit of a 40%/50% lower price Single & double storey terrace (1,100/1,600 sq.ft.)Market value RM320,000 (SST) RM550,000 (DST) Actual paid value RM170,000 (SST) RM240,000 (DST)

How to contact me:Through :

Dr. Daniele Gambero

How to contact me:Through Facebook, like my page:

Dr. Daniele Gambero @thepropenomistThis is the timeline:

How to contact me:www.propenomy.my

www.reigroup.com.mywww.facebook.com/thepropenomist

www.facebook.com/REIGroupMY/www.facebook.com/propenomyacademy/

www.linkedin.com/in/daniele-gambero-29116742/

YouTube Channel: REIGroupMY

#askthepropenomist

http://www.propenomy.my/http://www.reigroup.com.my/https://www.facebook.com/thepropenomisthttp://www.facebook.com/REIGroupMY/http://www.facebook.com/propenomyacademy/http://www.linkedin.com/in/daniele-gambero-29116742/http://www.linkedin.com/in/daniele-gambero-29116742/http://www.linkedin.com/in/daniele-gambero-29116742/http://www.linkedin.com/in/daniele-gambero-29116742/http://www.linkedin.com/in/daniele-gambero-29116742/

Thank you

FacebookDr Daniele Gambero

[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]

The Missing Link - · 2019. 7. 4. · NAPIC CAPTURES THE UNSOLD / OVERHANG UNITS AS: UNSOLD NOT CONSTRUCTED Projects with all approvals (DO, BP and APDL) but construction not yet

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