The Market forecast of HLR (English version)

The Market perspective and forecast

of HLR(Home Location Register) and

NPDB(Number Portability DB)

For futher Information,

Contact

[email protected]

1

Table of Contents

Executive Summary.............................................................................................................４

1. Introduction of CDMA network subsystem..............................................................................５

1.1 CDMA system................................................................................................................５

1.2 Overview of Number Portability..................................................................................１１

1.2.1 The concept of number portability....................................................................１１

1.2.2 Technical solution.............................................................................................１２

1.2.3 Policy...............................................................................................................１３

2. Forecasts of CDMA Infrastructure Demand.........................................................................１４

2.1 2.5G Coverage Analysis.............................................................................................１６

2.2 Total subscriber forecast............................................................................................１８

2.2.1 Forecast of provincial subscribers....................................................................１９

2.2.2 Forecast of SKT’s MSC/HLR demand..............................................................２１

2.2.3 Forecast of KTF’s MSC/HLR demand..............................................................２４

2.2.4 Forecast of LGT’s MSC/HLR demand..............................................................２７

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List of Figures

그림 0.1 Methodology...............................................................................................１５

그림 0.2 Methodology...............................................................................................１６

List of Tables

표 0.1 SKT의 IS-95C 투자 동향................................................................................１７

표 0.2 SK IMT의 Coverage plan................................................................................１８

표 0.3 가입자수 전망.................................................................................................１９

표 0.4 가입자 점유율.................................................................................................１９

Table 0.5 Subscriber forecast according to province......................................２０

표 0.6 SKT의 MSC 수요 추정....................................................................................２３

표 0.7 KTF의 MSC 수요 추정....................................................................................２６

표 0.8 LGT의 MSC 수요 추정....................................................................................２９

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Executive Summary

The launch of IMT-2000(CDMA2000 and W-CDMA) commercial service is scheduled to begin in

the 3rd quarter of this year in South Korea. Currently, a couple of companies which produce

Telco S/W products, are preparing to apply to be listed in KOSDAQ.

Discussed in this report, will be first, an estimate of the companies’ potential market size, such

as HLR(Home Location Register), NPDB(Number Portability DataBase) etc. Second, It will be

demonstrated which area the companies should pay attention to, to build a roadmap of

technology development to achieve both the technology and market needs.

The methodology used in this report is as follows

1. Subscribers Forecasting

Since the number of Telco S/W is highly connected to the number of subscribers, a forecast

of the coming five years’ subscribers will be undertaken by province and technology

2. BTS, BSC and MSC

Although there is no mathematically exact relation between the number of BTS(Base

station Transciever Subsystem), BSC(Base transceiver System Controller) and

MSC(Mobile Switching Center), the portion of BTS’s capital expenditure to total

infrastructure capital expenditure is known as about 50%. So it is possible to forecast how

many BTS will be installed from the total capital expenditure announced by the carriers.

3. Telco S/W adoption

An analysis of the portion of Telco S/W to the total capital expenditure will enable us to

forecast the market size of Telco S/W by linking the two results.

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1. Introduction of CDMA network subsystem

1.1 CDMA system

CDMA infrastructure

A CDMA network is composed of several functional entities, whose functions and interfaces are

specified. Figure 1-1 shows the layout of a generic CDMA network. The CDMA network can be

divided into three broad parts. The Mobile Station is carried by the subscriber. The Base Station

Subsystem controls the radio link with the Mobile Station. The Network Subsystem, the main

part of which is the Mobile services Switching Center (MSC), performs the switching of calls

between the mobile users, and between mobile and fixed network users. The MSC also handles

the mobility management operations. The Mobile Station(terminal) and the Base Station

Subsystem communicate across the Um interface, also known as the air interface or radio link.

The Base Station Subsystem communicates with the Mobile services Switching Center across

the A interface.

Figure 1. CDMA network subsystem

This BTS transmits on a regularly base the frequencies of neighbor BTS's so the MS can try if

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one of those cells gives better reception. It will not decide anything, the MS just transmits the

measurements back to the BTS allowing the BSC to determine if a BTS change is wanted

(called a hand-over). The reason that the BSC decides is that it has a wider view on what's

going on with the network.

If the new BTS is one from the same BSC, the BSC will initiate the handover. If the new BTS is

under control of another BSC the MSC will take care of contacting that other BSC because a

BSC can not talk directly to another BSC. In both cases, the MS and the BSC/MSC are working

together to make the hand-over as smooth as possible. The network reserves a channel on the

new BTS, so the hand-over can take place even in the middle of a call.

For an incoming call it is necessary for the network to know where the MS is, so the call can be

routed to the correct MSC. This is where the HLR and VLR play an important role. The HLR tells

us what VLR knows where the MS is. In the VLR there's a LAC (Location Area Code) linked to

the phone that correspondents to a physical location. The VLR initializes a page to the MS by

sending a page to the MSC that the VLR thinks is where the phone is. The MS is always

listening to it's PCH (Paging Channel) and therefore sees the call. The MS responds and call-

setup can take place.

So, an incoming call always starts at the HLR. This is rather easy to do because the network

knows where it's own HLR is and the phone number of MS remains the same, no matter what

country the phone is. The routing that other networks have to do is not determined by the

location of the MS, the network the phone is on will take care of that.

When the MS is switched off, the network will remember where the phone was last 'seen'. When

no 'switch-off' signal is received the network thinks the phone is still listening to it's paging

channel. To be sure the phone is really turned on the network expects every couple of hours a

message from the phone telling it's still there. The time between these messages can be set by

the network.

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The CDMA(Code Division Multiple Access) network is consisted of transmitting network which

deals with call transmitting, call-processing network, intelligent network and managing network.

Transmitting network is consisted of MSC(Mobile Switching Center), IGS(Inter-Gateway

Switching System), BTS(Base Station Transciever Subsystem) and Mobile staton(Cell phone).

Call-processing network is consisted of MSC and STP(Signal Transmitting Processor) which

connects MSC and Intelligent network through SS7(Signaling No.7). Intelligent network is

consisted of DB(DataBase) system such as subscribers’ information and control logics.

Managing network is consisted of NMS(Network Management System) and CCBS(Consumer

Care and Billing System).

Transmitting layer

The transmitting network includes MSC, IGS, IWF, BTS and MS. The transmitting network

manages call-processing according to the data of the intelligent network.

Figure 2. Transmitting layer

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1) Mobile Switching Center(MSC)

The central component of the Network Subsystem is the Mobile services Switching Center

(MSC). It acts like a normal switching node of the PSTN or ISDN, and in addition provides all

the functionality needed to handle a mobile subscriber, including registration, authentication,

location updating, inter-MSC handovers, and call routing to a roaming subscriber. These

services are provided in conjuction with four intelligent databases, which together with the MSC

form the Network Subsystem. The MSC also provides the connection to the public fixed

networks. Signaling between functional entities in the network subsystem uses Signaling

System Number 7 (SS7), used for trunk signaling in ISDN and widely used in current public

networks.

The main function of the mobile services switching center (MSC) is used to co-ordinate the

setting-up of calls to and from CDMA users. On one end of the MSC, it is connected to the BSS,

while the other end is connected to the external networks for communication with users outside

CDMA, such as subscribers in the local phone system network. When a mobile user wants to

make a phone call to a local phone user, the MSC acts as the virtual connection node that

passes the voice signal between the two users. On the other hand, if the mobile user wants to

phone to another CDMA user, the MSC will locate the MSC that handles the MS of the other

CDMA user. Subsequently, the two resulting MSC's will act as the virtual path that passes the

voice signal between the two CDMA users.

2) Base Station Transceiver System (BTS)

BTS, a system which performs wireless interface with mobile terminals, exchanges wireless

data and signal data with mobile terminals pursuant to the standards of IS-2000 and IS-856.

BTS transmits the data and the signal data received from mobile terminals to the core network

through BSC and, conversely, transmits the data and the signal data received from the core

network to the mobile terminals through BSC. Serving as a wireless transceiver, BTS performs

wireless resource management functions, RF scheduling and power control. BTS in the

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO network only adds the channel cards for 1xEV-DO, while the hardware

configuration of BTS in the CDMA2000 1x network is maintained intact to enhance packet data

service functions. BTS is referred to as ANTS (Access Network Transceiver System) in a single

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO network.

3) Base Station Controller (BSC)

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BSC is a system that performs call processing, controls BTS, and provides an interface with the

core network. It also redirects packet data calls from mobile terminals to the DCN network in the

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO network. BSC processes calls, SF (Selector Function) and RLP (Radio

Link Protocol), and controls BTS in both of the CDMA2000 1x network and the CDMA2000

1xEV-DO network. BSC is referred to as ANC (Access Network Controller) in a single

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO network.

4) IWF (Inter-Working Function)

The IWF (Inter-Working Functions) for wireless Internet service is an equipment designed to

provide data service as an infrastructure facility. It is an integral equipment for Wireless Internet

that connects wireless networks to wired networks, allowing Cellular and PCS subscribers to

transmit message, data and fax and get Internet services not only via telephone but also from

mobile communication terminals.

5) AuC (Authentication Center)

Authentication Center. The AuC database contains the subscriber authentication keys and the

algorithm required to calculate the authentication parameters to be transferred to the HLR

Intelligent layer

1) Home Location Register (HLR)

The Home Location Register (HLR) is the main database of permanent subscriber information

for a mobile network. The HLR is an integral component of CDMA (code division multiple

access), TDMA (time division multiple access), and CDMA (Global System for Mobile

communications) networks. Maintained by the subscriber's home carrier (or the network

operator where the user initiated the call), the HLR contains pertinent user information, including

address, account status, and preferences. The HLR interacts with the Mobile Switching Center

(MSC), which is a switch used for call control and processing. The MSC also serves as a point-

of-access to the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN - the fixed network). The third

integral element is the Visiting Location Register (VLR), which maintains temporary user

information (such as current location) to manage requests from subscribers who are out of the

area covered by their home system.

When a user initiates a call, the switching equipment determines whether or not the call is

coming from the device's home area. If the user is out of the home area, the area VLR sends

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out a request for information required to process the call. An MSC queries the HLR identified by

the call for information, which it relays to the appropriate MSC, which in turn relays it to the VLR.

The VLR sends routing information back to the MSC which allows it to find the station where the

call originated, and, finally, the mobile device to connect. Communications between the

elements are based on Signaling System (SS7) protocols and signaling.

2) Visitor Location Register (VLR)

The VLR contains a copy of most of the data stored at the HLR. It is, however, temporary data,

which exists for only as long as the subscriber is "active" in the particular area covered by the

VLR. The VLR database will, therefore, contain some duplicate data as well as more precise

data relevant to the subscriber remaining within the VLR coverage. The VLR provides a local

database for the subscriber whenever he is physically located within a PLMN (Public Land

Mobile Network. The mobile communication network), this may or may not be the "home"

system. This function eliminates the need for excessive and time-consuming references to the

"home" HLR database.

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1.2 Overview of Number Portability

1.2.1 The concept of number portability

The term "Mobile Number Portability (MNP)" refers to facilities enabling a customer to change

his mobile network operator and/or service provider while retaining his number.

In other words a customer can move or port their mobile number from one mobile phone

company to another mobile phone company on a different network and keep the same number.

However in the process of changing network operator and/or service provider the customer may

lose supplementary services related to the basic service.

Number portability is being demanded by customers and mandated by regulators. For end

users, number portability is a breakthrough in convenience - the freedom to change wireless or

wireline operators without changing phone numbers. At the same time, the addition of new

customers means revenue growth for operators.

For operators, number portability is now a required core competency that presents enormous

technical and operational challenges. Portability increases the complexity of call processing,

number administration, service provisioning, service assurance, and network operations,

requiring changes in virtually every major operation from call processing and routing to

customer care, billing, and inter-company data exchange. As the world continues to change and

new technologies and regulatory mandates are introduced, number portability solutions also will

need to interface and work with operators' systems for carrier pre-selection, unbundling, Internet

Protocol (IP), and NGNs.

More specifically, the government wanted to increase competition in the mobile phone market

so prices would come down and services would improve. The logic behind this is that if mobile

numbers were easily ported between mobile phone companies, then consumers would freely

gravitate to the best service without the hassle of changing numbers. From an industry point of

view, the increased activity (and, hopefully, demand) of the market would also create more

money in the industry.

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1.2.2 Technical solution

The provision of MNP implies the introduction of additional capabilities in the network to properly

route the call to the final destination and provide supplementary services such as Short

Message Service (SMS) and CCBS (Completion of Call to Busy Subscriber).

In discussing technical solutions for the provision of MNP it is useful to make a distinction

between call-related functions and non call-related functions. The call-related functions are the

functions which are used to establish a call to a mobile terminal; the non call-related functions

are the functions which are invoked to provide services such as SMS which are not directly

linked to a call.

For call-related functions two types of solution have been widely accepted as the most

promising ones:

Intelligent Network (IN) based solutions,

Signalling Relay Function (SRF) based solutions.

For non call-related functions, solutions based on SRF have been identified as the most

appropriate.

IN based solutions and SRF based solutions differ in terms of network capabilities and

equipment to be deployed. SRF based solutions seem to be reasonably simple to implement,

being based on the existing capabilities of mobile networks. The call handling in the switch does

not need to be modified. On the other hand the use of IN based solutions requires the

introduction of new functionality in the switches and some changes to the call handling.

This appears to suggest the conclusion that, at present, IN based solutions would be more

costly and complex than SRF solutions. However, looking at the evolutionary scenarios with the

growing convergence of fixed and mobile services, the large presence of IN based services and

the availability of 3G, IN solutions are expected in the next few years to be increasingly used as

a means of providing MNP.

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1.2.3 Policy

South Korea's Ministry of Information and Communication has said that it plans to introduce

Mobile Number Portability in the country late next year. The MNP service will however, be

restricted to users of the new 3G networks. Formal plans for the introduction on MNP will be

finalised by the end of this year, and introduced towards the end of 2002, or the beginning of

2003. Realistically though, it is unlikely that anyone will be able to make use of the service until

the middle of 2003, when initial one year contracts on the 3G networks start to expire.

For 2GHz IMT-2000 services, number portability will be introduced within 6 months after their

service launching by more than 2 service providers in the market.

Appropriate policies will be devised for number portability among 2G service providers (intra-

generation) and between 2G and 3G service providers (inter-generation) within a year after the

deployment of 3G number portability.

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2. Forecasts of CDMA Infrastructure Demand

Before going into more detail, the methodology used in this report shall be briefly introduced.

The following diagram is a schematic concept of the methodology and the analysis of CDMA

infrastructure will be described according to this.

Figure 3. Methodology

The capacity of the telecommunication infrastructure system can be derived from the number of

subscribers. As new subscription leads to new infrastructure demands, it is possible to forecast

the demands of new systems by considering the number of subscribers according to province

and technology generations, ie, 2G, 2.5G and 3G(IMT-2000).

The largest portion of capital expenditure for building up new infrastructure is for the transmitting

layer, which consists of the BTS(Base station Transciever Subsystem), BSC(Base Station

Controller), and the MSC(Mobile Switching Center).

This considered in conjunction with the capital expenditure for new infrasturcture announced by

the carriers, it is possible to approximately forecast the demands of both the MSC and its

subsystems.

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Figure 4. Methodology in detail

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2.1 2.5G Coverage Analysis

Currently, SKT and KTF have invested a lot of capital expenditure in the CDMA2000 1X

infrastructure. The capital expenditure of IMT-2000 can be derived considering that of IS-95C.

Among three network operators, only SKT announced its capital expenditure plan in the

CDMA2000 1X infrastructure in detail. The coverage plan and its capital expenditure can be

derived by the investigation of SKT’s capital expenditure plan can

Classification 2001. 1Q 2001. 2Q 2001. 3Q 2001. 4Q 2002. 1Q

Total subs. 26,555,384 28,092,979 28,243,933 29,045,596 30,308,423

SKT M/S 53.13% 49.71% 50.85% 52.26% 52.79%

SKT subs. 14,107,549 13,964,791 14,361,799 15,179,163 16,001,181

SKT 1X subs. 46,040 381,000 1,303,422 2,681,472 5,114,033

SKT 1X subs. % 0.3% 2.7% 9.1% 17.7% 32.0%

1X CAPEX(million\) 103,000 155,000 140,000 203,000 127,000

IS-95A, B BTS 3,875 3,986 4,058 4,067 5,634

IS-95C(1X) BTS 766 1,713 1,872 1,903 1,921

1X Coverage Plan Seoul, 6

metropolitan

cities, 25

cities

71 cities, 11

goons

1X Coverage 67.2% 82.5%

IMT-2000 subs. 0 0 0 0 0

IMT-2000 subs. % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Table 1 SKT's IS-95C CAPEX

Table 1 shows the coverage plan, the number of BTS and IS-95C subscribers’s relation. The

capital expenditure to the IS-95C has been started since 2nd quarter of the year 2000. And the

1st quarter of the year 2001 has seen subscribers for the first time.

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plan Service area Coverage

~2003 Seoul, 6 metropolitan cities, 25 cities 67.2 %

~2004 71 cities, 11 goons 82.5 %

~2005 81 cities 97.4 %

~2006 countrywide 100 %

Table 2 SK IMT's Coverage plan

The next step is to derive the market size of network subsystem considering both the 2G MSC

deployment and new MSC deployment.

To do that, as noted in methodology, it should be considered that both the number of

subscribers according to province and technology generations, ie, 2G, 2.5G and 3G(IMT-2000)

and the capital expenditure plan.

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2.2 Total subscriber forecast

The forecast of the total subscribers and its technological portion are adopted from the former

research done by KISDI, LGERI and National Statistics Office.

2001 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E

Subs. 29,045,596 30,205,000 30,969,000 31,709,941 32,468,595 32,879,413

Population 47,342,828 47,639,618 47,925,318 48,199,227 48,460,590 48,710,241

Penetration 61.4% 63.4% 64.6% 65.8% 67.0% 67.5%

Growth rate(%) 8.3% 4.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 1.3%

2G + 2.5 G subs. 29,045,596 29,600,900 28,801,170 25,685,052 21,104,587 17,426,089

Portion(%) 100.0% 98.0% 93.0% 81.0% 65.0% 53.0%

YoY growth

rate(%) 8.3% 1.9% -2.7% -10.8% -17.8% -17.4%

3G subs. 604,100 2,167,830 6,024,889 11,364,008 15,453,324

Portion(%) 2.0% 7.0% 19.0% 35.0% 47.0%

YoY growth

rate(%) 258.9% 177.9% 88.6% 36.0%

Table 3 Subscriber Forecast

Source – KISDI, National Statistics Office, LGERI, Ian Yeon

Market Share

Classification Dec, 2001 M/S

Total 29,045,596 100

SKT 11,867,289 40.90

Shinsegi 3,311,774 11.41

KTF 9,590,698 32.98

LGT 4,275,835 14.71

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Table 4 Market share

Source – Ministry of Information and Communication Feb, 2002

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2.2.1 Forecast of provincial subscribers

As noted in the methodology, a forecast of subscribers according to province needs to be done

to forecast the new MSC deployment demands.

Class. SKT

portion

% KTF

portion

% LGT

portion

%

Seoul 3,866,264 25.5% 2,149,000 25.5% 1,195,000 27.9%

Incheon 798,800 5.3% 444,000 5.3% 228,000 5.3%

Kyonggi 2,948,724 19.4% 1,639,000 19.4% 952,000 22.3%

Busan 1,298,950 8.6% 722,000 8.6% 286,000 6.7%

Daegu 1,002,098 6.6% 557,000 6.6% 126,000 2.9%

Gwangju 433,583 2.9% 241,000 2.9% 130,000 3.0%

Daejon 537,931 3.5% 299,000 3.5% 124,000 2.9%

Woolsan 347,226 2.3% 193,000 2.3% 91,000 2.1%

Jeonnam 455,172 3.0% 253,000 3.0% 172,000 4.0%

Jeonbuk 485,757 3.2% 270,000 3.2% 140,000 3.3%

Chungna

m 460,569 3.0% 256,000 3.0% 167,000 3.9%

Chungbuk 383,208 2.5% 213,000 2.5% 151,000 3.5%

Kyongnam 800,599 5.3% 445,000 5.3% 208,000 4.9%

Kyongbuk 777,211 5.1% 432,000 5.1% 162,000 3.8%

Kangwon 413,793 2.7% 230,000 2.7% 116,000 2.7%

Cheju 169,115 1.1% 94,000 1.1% 28,000 0.7%

Total 15,179,000 100.0% 8,437,000 100.0% 4,276,000 100.0%

Table 5. Subscriber forecast according to province

Source – Mobilecomi Feb, 2002

Note – In case of SKT, the provincial subscriber statistics are not announced, instead, the SKT

announces the subscribers statistics of five local branches. Here the KTF’s provincial portion is

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used to approximate that of SKT

The basic assumptions to forecast the demand of MSC are as follows.

- The capacity of one MSC is 350,000 lines, that is 350,000 subscribers per one

MSC

- To maintain the Quality of Service – stability and reliability, 1.67 times of MSC are

to be deployed than calculated

- As the mobile penetration is going saturated over 61%, the market shares of the

end of the year 2001 is used.

- Hereinafter, SKT includes SKT and SK IMT-2000, KTF includes KTF and KT

ICOM.

The approximate calculation of the HLR demand is based on the same assumptions to that of

the MSC, except only that the capacity of the HLR is 500,000 lines – in case of KTF, the

capacity of the HLR is known as 1million users per one HLR.

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2.2.2 Forecast of SKT’s MSC/HLR demand

MSC

2001 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E

SKT M/S(%) 52.31% 52.31% 52.31% 52.31% 52.31% 52.31%

수도권 7,613,788 7,931,718 8,132,342 8,326,910 8,526,130 8,634,009

서울 3,866,264 4,029,060 4,130,970 4,229,805 4,331,002 4,385,801

인천 798,800 837,412 858,594 879,136 900,169 911,559

경기 2,948,724 3,065,246 3,142,777 3,217,969 3,294,958 3,336,649

% 50.16% 51.02% 51.02% 51.02% 51.02% 51.02%

MSC 22 23 23 24 24 25

중부권 1,795,501 1,848,628 1,895,386 1,940,734 1,987,166 2,012,309

대전 537,931 553,008 566,996 580,561 594,451 601,973

충남 460,569 474,007 485,997 497,624 509,530 515,977

충북 383,208 395,006 404,997 414,687 424,608 429,981

강원 413,793 426,606 437,397 447,862 458,577 464,379

% 11.83% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00%

MSC 5 5 5 6 6 6

서부권 1,543,627 1,611,624 1,652,388 1,691,922 1,732,401 1,754,321

광주 433,583 458,207 469,797 481,037 492,545 498,777

전남 455,172 474,007 485,997 497,624 509,530 515,977

전북 485,757 505,608 518,396 530,799 543,498 550,375

제주 169,115 173,803 178,199 182,462 186,828 189,191

% 10.17% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99%

MSC 4 5 5 5 5 5

대구, 경북 1,779,309 1,848,628 1,895,386 1,940,734 1,987,166 2,012,309

대구 1,002,098 1,042,816 1,069,192 1,094,773 1,120,965 1,135,149

경북 777,211 805,812 826,194 845,961 866,200 877,160

% 11.72% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99%

MSC 5 5 5 6 6 6

부산, 경남 2,446,775 2,559,638 2,624,381 2,687,170 2,751,460 2,786,274

부산 1,298,950 1,358,820 1,393,190 1,426,522 1,460,652 1,479,133

경남 800,599 837,412 858,594 879,136 900,169 911,559

울산 347,226 363,405 372,597 381,512 390,639 395,582

22

% 16.12% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00%

MSC 7 7 7 8 8 8

MSC 합계 43 45 46 47 49 49

ModifiedMSC 합계 72 75 77 79 81 82

Table 6. Forecast of SKT's MSc deployment

※ The number of SKT’s MSC is known as 75 – 50 for 2G, 25 for 1X MSC - and the number of

1X MSC will be doubled by the end of the year 2002.

HLR

2001 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E

Subs. 29,045,596 30,205,000 30,969,000 31,709,941 32,468,595 32,879,413

Population 47,342,828 47,639,618 47,925,318 48,199,227 48,460,590 48,710,241

Penetration 61.4% 63.4% 64.6% 65.8% 67.0% 67.5%

Growth

rate(%) 4.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 1.3%

SKT M/S(%) 52.31% 52.31% 52.31% 52.31% 52.31% 52.31%

수도권 7,613,788 7,931,718 8,132,342 8,326,910 8,526,130 8,634,009

서울 3,866,264 4,029,060 4,130,970 4,229,805 4,331,002 4,385,801

인천 798,800 837,412 858,594 879,136 900,169 911,559

경기 2,948,724 3,065,246 3,142,777 3,217,969 3,294,958 3,336,649

% 50.16% 51.02% 51.02% 51.02% 51.02% 51.02%

HLR 15 16 16 17 17 17

중부권 1,795,501 1,848,628 1,895,386 1,940,734 1,987,166 2,012,309

대전 537,931 553,008 566,996 580,561 594,451 601,973

충남 460,569 474,007 485,997 497,624 509,530 515,977

충북 383,208 395,006 404,997 414,687 424,608 429,981

강원 413,793 426,606 437,397 447,862 458,577 464,379

% 11.83% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00%

HLR 4 4 4 4 4 4

서부권 1,543,627 1,611,624 1,652,388 1,691,922 1,732,401 1,754,321

광주 433,583 458,207 469,797 481,037 492,545 498,777

전남 455,172 474,007 485,997 497,624 509,530 515,977

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전북 485,757 505,608 518,396 530,799 543,498 550,375

제주 169,115 173,803 178,199 182,462 186,828 189,191

% 10.17% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99%

HLR 3 3 3 3 3 4

대구, 경북 1,779,309 1,848,628 1,895,386 1,940,734 1,987,166 2,012,309

대구 1,002,098 1,042,816 1,069,192 1,094,773 1,120,965 1,135,149

경북 777,211 805,812 826,194 845,961 866,200 877,160

% 11.72% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99% 9.99%

HLR 4 4 4 4 4 4

부산, 경남 2,446,775 2,559,638 2,624,381 2,687,170 2,751,460 2,786,274

부산 1,298,950 1,358,820 1,393,190 1,426,522 1,460,652 1,479,133

경남 800,599 837,412 858,594 879,136 900,169 911,559

울산 347,226 363,405 372,597 381,512 390,639 395,582

% 16.12% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00%

HLR 5 5 5 5 6 6

합계 15,179,000 15,800,236 16,199,884 16,587,470 16,984,322 17,199,221

HLR 합계 30 32 32 33 34 34

ModifiedHLR 합계 51 53 54 55 57 57

Table 7. Forecast of SKT's HLR deployment

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2.2.3 Forecast of KTF’s MSC/HLR demand

MSC

2001 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E

KTF M/S(%) 32.98% 32.98% 32.98% 32.98% 32.98% 32.98%

수도권 4,232,000 5,000,728 5,127,215 5,249,885 5,375,488 5,443,502

서울 2,149,000 2,540,210 2,604,462 2,666,774 2,730,576 2,765,126

인천 444,000 527,965 541,320 554,271 567,532 574,712

경기 1,639,000 1,932,552 1,981,434 2,028,840 2,077,380 2,103,664

% 50.16% 50.16% 50.16% 50.16% 50.16% 50.16%

MSC 12 14 15 15 15 16

중부권 998,000 1,165,508 1,194,988 1,223,579 1,252,853 1,268,705

대전 299,000 348,656 357,475 366,028 374,785 379,527

충남 256,000 298,848 306,407 313,738 321,244 325,309

충북 213,000 249,040 255,339 261,448 267,704 271,091

강원 230,000 268,963 275,767 282,364 289,120 292,778

% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83%

MSC 3 3 3 3 4 4

서부권 858,000 1,016,084 1,041,785 1,066,710 1,092,231 1,106,050

광주 241,000 288,887 296,194 303,280 310,536 314,465

전남 253,000 298,848 306,407 313,738 321,244 325,309

전북 270,000 318,771 326,834 334,654 342,661 346,996

제주 94,000 109,578 112,349 115,037 117,790 119,280

% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17%

MSC 2 3 3 3 3 3

대구, 경북 989,000 1,165,508 1,194,988 1,223,579 1,252,853 1,268,705

대구 557,000 657,466 674,096 690,224 706,737 715,680

경북 432,000 508,042 520,892 533,355 546,115 553,025

% 11.72% 11.72% 11.72% 11.72% 11.72% 11.72%

MSC 3 3 3 3 4 4

부산, 경남 1,360,000 1,613,781 1,654,599 1,694,186 1,734,719 1,756,668

부산 722,000 856,698 878,368 899,383 920,900 932,552

경남 445,000 527,965 541,320 554,271 567,532 574,712

울산 193,000 229,117 234,912 240,533 246,287 249,403

25

% 16.12% 16.12% 16.12% 16.12% 16.12% 16.12%

MSC 4 5 5 5 5 5

MSC 합계 24 28 29 30 31 31

ModifiedMSC 합계 40 47 49 50 51 52

Table 8. Forecast of KTF's MSC deployment

The number of KTF’s MSC is known as 44 according to the IR document and the number of

BTS is known as 8,605.

HLR

The capacity of KTF’s HLR, supplied by Samsung electronics, is one million subscribers.

2001 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E

KTF M/S(%) 32.98% 32.98% 32.98% 32.98% 32.98% 32.98%

수도권 4,232,000 5,000,728 5,127,215 5,249,885 5,375,488 5,443,502

서울 2,149,000 2,540,210 2,604,462 2,666,774 2,730,576 2,765,126

인천 444,000 527,965 541,320 554,271 567,532 574,712

경기 1,639,000 1,932,552 1,981,434 2,028,840 2,077,380 2,103,664

% 50.16% 50.16% 50.16% 50.16% 50.16% 50.16%

HLR 4 5 5 5 5 5

중부권 998,000 1,165,508 1,194,988 1,223,579 1,252,853 1,268,705

대전 299,000 348,656 357,475 366,028 374,785 379,527

충남 256,000 298,848 306,407 313,738 321,244 325,309

충북 213,000 249,040 255,339 261,448 267,704 271,091

강원 230,000 268,963 275,767 282,364 289,120 292,778

% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83%

HLR 1 1 1 1 1 1

서부권 858,000 1,016,084 1,041,785 1,066,710 1,092,231 1,106,050

광주 241,000 288,887 296,194 303,280 310,536 314,465

전남 253,000 298,848 306,407 313,738 321,244 325,309

전북 270,000 318,771 326,834 334,654 342,661 346,996

제주 94,000 109,578 112,349 115,037 117,790 119,280

% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17%

26

HLR 1 1 1 1 1 1

대구, 경북 989,000 1,165,508 1,194,988 1,223,579 1,252,853 1,268,705

대구 557,000 657,466 674,096 690,224 706,737 715,680

경북 432,000 508,042 520,892 533,355 546,115 553,025

% 11.72% 11.72% 11.72% 11.72% 11.72% 11.72%

HLR 1 1 1 1 1 1

부산, 경남 1,360,000 1,613,781 1,654,599 1,694,186 1,734,719 1,756,668

부산 722,000 856,698 878,368 899,383 920,900 932,552

경남 445,000 527,965 541,320 554,271 567,532 574,712

울산 193,000 229,117 234,912 240,533 246,287 249,403

% 16.12% 16.12% 16.12% 16.12% 16.12% 16.12%

HLR 1 2 2 2 2 2

합계 8,437,000 9,961,609 10,213,576 10,457,939 10,708,143 10,843,630

HLR 합계 8 10 10 10 11 11

ModifiedHLR 합계 14 17 17 17 18 18

Table 9. Forecast of KTF's HLR deployment

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2.2.4 Forecast of LGT’s MSC/HLR demand

MSC

2001 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E

LGT M/S(%) 14.71% 14.71% 14.71% 14.71% 14.71% 14.71%

서울/경기/강원 2,491,000 2,585,917 2,651,324 2,714,758 2,779,708 2,814,879

서울 1,195,000 1,239,640 1,270,996 1,301,405 1,332,540 1,349,401

인천 228,000 235,487 241,444 247,220 253,135 256,338

경기 952,000 990,824 1,015,885 1,040,191 1,065,077 1,078,553

강원 116,000 119,965 123,000 125,942 128,956 130,587

% 58.26% 58.26% 58.26% 58.26% 58.26% 58.26%

MSC 7 7 8 8 8 8

중부권 442,000 457,645 469,221 480,447 491,941 498,166

대전 124,000 128,852 132,111 135,271 138,508 140,260

충남 167,000 173,283 177,666 181,917 186,269 188,626

충북 151,000 155,510 159,444 163,259 167,165 169,280

% 10.34% 10.34% 10.34% 10.34% 10.34% 10.34%

MSC 1 1 1 1 1 1

서부권 470,000 488,747 501,109 513,099 525,374 532,022

광주 130,000 133,295 136,666 139,936 143,284 145,097

전남 172,000 177,726 182,222 186,581 191,045 193,462

전북 140,000 146,624 150,333 153,930 157,612 159,607

제주 28,000 31,102 31,889 32,652 33,433 33,856

% 10.99% 10.99% 10.99% 10.99% 10.99% 10.99%

MSC 1 1 1 1 2 2

대구, 경북 288,000 297,691 305,221 312,524 320,001 324,050

대구 126,000 128,852 132,111 135,271 138,508 140,260

경북 162,000 168,840 173,111 177,252 181,493 183,789

% 6.74% 6.74% 6.74% 6.74% 6.74% 6.74%

MSC 1 1 1 1 1 1

부산, 경남 585,000 608,712 624,109 639,041 654,330 662,609

부산 286,000 297,691 305,221 312,524 320,001 324,050

경남 208,000 217,715 223,221 228,562 234,030 236,992

울산 91,000 93,306 95,666 97,955 100,299 101,568

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% 13.68% 13.68% 13.68% 13.68% 13.68% 13.68%

MSC 2 2 2 2 2 2

MSC 합계 12 13 13 13 14 14

ModifiedMSC 합계 20 21 22 22 23 23

Table 10. Forecast of LGT's MSC deployment

HLR

2001 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E

LGT M/S(%) 14.71% 14.71% 14.71% 14.71% 14.71% 14.71%

서울/경기/강원 2,491,000 2,585,917 2,651,324 2,714,758 2,779,708 2,814,879

서울 1,195,000 1,239,640 1,270,996 1,301,405 1,332,540 1,349,401

인천 228,000 235,487 241,444 247,220 253,135 256,338

경기 952,000 990,824 1,015,885 1,040,191 1,065,077 1,078,553

강원 116,000 119,965 123,000 125,942 128,956 130,587

% 58.26% 58.26% 58.26% 58.26% 58.26% 58.26%

HLR 5 5 5 5 6 6

중부권 442,000 457,645 469,221 480,447 491,941 498,166

대전 124,000 128,852 132,111 135,271 138,508 140,260

충남 167,000 173,283 177,666 181,917 186,269 188,626

충북 151,000 155,510 159,444 163,259 167,165 169,280

% 10.34% 10.34% 10.34% 10.34% 10.34% 10.34%

HLR 1 1 1 1 1 1

서부권 470,000 488,747 501,109 513,099 525,374 532,022

광주 130,000 133,295 136,666 139,936 143,284 145,097

전남 172,000 177,726 182,222 186,581 191,045 193,462

전북 140,000 146,624 150,333 153,930 157,612 159,607

제주 28,000 31,102 31,889 32,652 33,433 33,856

% 10.99% 10.99% 10.99% 10.99% 10.99% 10.99%

HLR 1 1 1 1 1 1

대구, 경북 288,000 297,691 305,221 312,524 320,001 324,050

대구 126,000 128,852 132,111 135,271 138,508 140,260

경북 162,000 168,840 173,111 177,252 181,493 183,789

% 6.74% 6.74% 6.74% 6.74% 6.74% 6.74%

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HLR 1 1 1 1 1 1

부산, 경남 585,000 608,712 624,109 639,041 654,330 662,609

부산 286,000 297,691 305,221 312,524 320,001 324,050

경남 208,000 217,715 223,221 228,562 234,030 236,992

울산 91,000 93,306 95,666 97,955 100,299 101,568

% 13.68% 13.68% 13.68% 13.68% 13.68% 13.68%

HLR 1 1 1 1 1 1

합계 4,276,000 4,443,156 4,555,540 4,664,532 4,776,130 4,836,562

HLR 합계 9 9 9 9 10 10

ModifiedHLR 합계 14 15 15 16 16 16

Table 11. Forecast of LGT's HLR deployment

Source – KISDI, National Stats. Office, LGERI

Note – SKT includes SKT and SK IMT, KTF includes KTF, KTM and KT ICOM.

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