The Local Elections Media Briefing - The Political Studies … 2014 Local... · · 2014-04-30The Local Elections Media Briefing Tuesday 29th April John Curtice, ... National equivalent

The Local ElectionsMedia Briefing

Tuesday 29th April

John Curtice, Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde

0141 548 4223 / [email protected]

Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, Professors of Politics, ElectionsCentre, University of Plymouth

01752 [email protected] / [email protected]

Tel: 020 7330 9289Email: [email protected]

[email protected]@[email protected]

The Poli)cal Landscape

John Cur)ce Strathclyde University

Party Fortunes in This Parliament

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Con Lab Lib Dem

The UKIP Interven)on

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP

UKIP Varia)on

% UKIP in last Poll

ComRes (O) 20

Surva)on (O) 20

Opinium (O) 18

YouGov (O) 15

Ipsos MORI 15

Populus (O) 13

ComRes 12

ICM 11

S)ll Dispropor)onately at Tories’ Expense

14 15

4

7 8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Apr. 13 Apr. 14

% 2010 vote now

sup

por7ng UKIP

Con

Lab

LD

S)ll The Main Des)na)on for Tory Defectors

66 63

23 22

11 15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Apr. 13 Apr. 14

% Tory Defectors SWitched

To

UKIP

Lab

LD/Oth

But Importance to UKIP Should Not Be Exaggerated

38 34

9 13 12 13

41 41

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Apr. 13 Apr. 14

% UKIP Supp

ort C

omes From

Con Lab LD Oth/UKIP/DNV

Profile of UKIP Support

8

16 16

11 11

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

< 34 > 65 Men Women ABC1 C2DE

% UKIP

Coali)on Regained Reputa)on for Economic Competence?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% managing economy well

Source: YouGov

Recovery of Trust in Tories

31 30 30 29

25 26 24 25 26 25 27

23 25

27

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Trust Cameron/Osborne to run economy

Source: ComRes

But Note

78 80

16

26

8 13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Aug. 11 Mar. 14

% trust C

ameron

/Osborne

on

econ

omy

Con

UKIP

None

Source: ComRes

UKIP Supporters Are Rela)vely Pessimis)c

20

74

-‐37

7 1

34

-‐50

1

-‐60

-‐40

-‐20

0

20

40

60

80

100

YG -‐ Household MORI -‐ Na)on

Net Evalua7

on

Con

Lab

LD

UKIP

Sa)sfac)on with Cameron Not Really Recovered

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sa)sfied Dissa)sfied

Source: Ipsos MORI

Where Are the LD Voters Now?

9 10

31 30

45

39

8 11

6 9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Apr. 13 Apr. 14

Con

Lab

LD

UKIP

Grn

Labour S)ll to Convince on Economy

18 18 21

15

19 22

20 20

24 21 20 20 20 19 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Trust Miliband/Balls to run economy

Source: ComRes

Miliband S)ll In The Doldrums

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Oct-‐10

Dec-‐10

Feb-‐11

Apr-‐11

Jun-‐11

Aug-‐11

Oct-‐11

Dec-‐11

Feb-‐12

Apr-‐12

Jun-‐12

Aug-‐12

Oct-‐12

Dec-‐12

Feb-‐13

Apr-‐13

Jun-‐13

Aug-‐13

Oct-‐13

Dec-‐13

Feb-‐14

Apr-‐14

Sa)sfied Dissa)sfied

Source: Ipsos-‐MORI

Comparisons

39

28 31

23 24

16

37

31

19

14 10 9

6

17 13

27

4 8

3 4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

May 09 Polls Euro09 Apr 14 Polls Euro Polls

Con Lab LD UKIP Grn

Degree of Euro Defec)on to UKIP

18

7 6

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18 20

Con Lab LD

Current Westminster Preference

% vote UKIP in Euros

A Euro Projec)on!

17

28

2

20

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Con Lab LD UKIP SNP

Seats

The Local Elections

Media Briefing

Tuesday 29th April

Political Studies Association: 2014 Local

Elections Media Briefing

English Local Elections 2014

Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher

The Elections Centre

Plymouth University



By-election model since 2010 general election

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45



By-election model in Conservative territory

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45



By-election model in Labour territory

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50



Lib Dem contestation

London and Met boroughs



Lib Dem vote share




Lib Dem seat share




National equivalent vote 2001-13

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Con 31 34 35 37 31 39 40 43 35 35 38 33 26

Lab 39 33 30 26 34 26 26 24 22 28 37 39 29

LD 25 25 27 27 27 25 24 23 25 25 16 15 13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

NE

V%

Source: Rallings/Thrasher, The Sunday TimesPolitical Studies Association: 2014 Local


Forecast & Actual 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

ConLab

LDUKIP

Forecast

NEV

Con Lab LD UKIP

Forecast 29 38 16 11

NEV 26 29 13 22Political Studies Association: 2014 Local


Exploring the dynamics of 2013



Coming from nowhere

Pattern

2009-2013

Con Lab LD UKIP

UKIP candidate in

2009-6.2 6.8 -10.1 11.1

No UKIP in 2009-11.8 6.2 -13.0 24.2



A new third party…

By-elections contested

%

contested won Ave % vote

2012 122/214 57 11.3

UKIPJan-Apr

201327/49 55 17.8

after

May

2013

163/204 80 7 21.4

2012 164/214 77 22.1

LDJan-Apr

201339/49 80 20.6

after

May

2013

138/204 68 18 15.3Political Studies Association: 2014 Local


Lowering the threshold for victory in the shires

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Mean % share for winning candidate in county elections

46%



Differences among party winners in 2013

Mean % share Std. deviation

Conservative 46.6 10.4

Labour 49.1 12.7

Lib Dem 43.5 10.2

UKIP 37.3 6.6

Established parties win in heartlands; UKIP is slipping through the middle



UKIP 2013 in councils with 2014 elections

District UKIP share 2013 UKIP seats 2013

Adur 37.1 3 ex 6

Great Yarmouth 36.4 5 ex 9

Huntingdonshire 34.0 6 ex 13

Castle Point 33.7 2 ex 5

Eastleigh 33.1 3 ex 7

Basildon 32.2 3 ex 5

Redditch 31.1 2 ex 4

Rushmoor 30.9 1 ex 5

Worthing 30.3 1 ex 9

Havant 30.0 1 ex 6

Tunbridge Wells 30.0 1 ex 6

Runnymede 29.5 0 ex 6

Broxbourne 29.3 0 ex 6

Daventry 28.9 1 ex 7

Harlow 28.3 0 ex 3

Newcastle-under-Lyme 28.3 1 ex 9

Rochford 28.2 1 ex 5

Epping Forest 26.7 0 ex 7

Brentwood 25.7 0 ex 4

Basingstoke & Deane 25.2 0 ex 10

Cannock Chase 25.2 0 ex 6

Reigate & Banstead 25.0 0 ex 10Political Studies Association: 2014 Local


Prospects for 2014



Councils up in 2014

Con Lab LD Ind NOC

London 11 17 2 - 2

Mets 2 29 - - 5

Unitaries 4 12 1 2

Districts 36 19 5 14

Total 53 77 8 - 23



Seats up in 2014** approximate owing to boundary changes

Con Lab LD Ind/Other

London 712 870 246 23

Mets 150 517 133 15

Unitaries 130 176 76 12

Districts 582 225 277 72

Total 1574 1788 732 122



Smaller parties

Ind Green BNP UKIP Other

London 2 2 - - 19

Mets 6 2 1 - 6

Unitaries 9 2 - - 1

Districts 25 12 1 1 33



National Equivalent Vote ‘forecast’

2014 + (polls)**as at 25/4/2014



Change on 2010

Con Lab LD UKIP Ind/Oth

2010 National

Equivalent Vote35 28 25 3 9

2014 by-election

model ‘forecast’30 33 14 16 7

Change 2010-14 -5 +5 -11 +13 -2



Possible 2014 seat change 1

Con Lab LD UKIP

-160 +500 -340 ???



Possible council change 2014

Croydon Lab ex Con

Trafford NOC ex Con

Walsall Lab ex NOC

Bristol Lab ex NOC

Swindon NOC ex Con

Crawley Lab ex Con

West Lancashire Lab ex Con



UKIP 2013 in councils with 2014 elections

District UKIP share 2013 UKIP seats 2013

Adur 37.1 3 ex 6

Great Yarmouth 36.4 5 ex 9

Huntingdonshire 34.0 6 ex 13

Castle Point 33.7 2 ex 5

Eastleigh 33.1 3 ex 7

Basildon 32.2 3 ex 5

Redditch 31.1 2 ex 4

Rushmoor 30.9 1 ex 5

Worthing 30.3 1 ex 9

Havant 30.0 1 ex 6

Tunbridge Wells 30.0 1 ex 6

Runnymede 29.5 0 ex 6

Broxbourne 29.3 0 ex 6

Daventry 28.9 1 ex 7

Harlow 28.3 0 ex 3

Newcastle-under-Lyme 28.3 1 ex 9

Rochford 28.2 1 ex 5

Epping Forest 26.7 0 ex 7

Brentwood 25.7 0 ex 4

Basingstoke & Deane 25.2 0 ex 10

Cannock Chase 25.2 0 ex 6

Reigate & Banstead 25.0 0 ex 10Political Studies Association: 2014 Local


Possible 2014 seat change 2

Con Lab LD UKIP

-220 +490 -350 +80



The Local Elections Media Briefing - The Political Studies … 2014 Local... · · 2014-04-30The Local Elections Media Briefing Tuesday 29th April John Curtice, ... National equivalent

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