The link between casualties and demographic data - and the importance of vehicle design Iain Reeve Assistant Director (Economy, Transport and Planning)
Apr 01, 2015
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The link between casualties and
demographic data - and the importance
of vehicle design
Iain Reeve
Assistant Director (Economy, Transport and Planning) Surrey County Council
Louise Lloyd Chartered Statistician, TRL
3
Iain ReeveAssistant Director
Economy, Transport & Planning
4
Ten a day, five a month.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
GB 3,650
3,621
3,598 3,599 3,421 3,423 3,409 3,450 3,431 3,508
Surrey 68 73 68 76 57 73 73 53 66 63
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GB 3,221 3,201 3,172 2,946 2,538 2,222 1,850 1,901
Surrey 72 64 52 60 45 41 32 28
5
2012, so far....
Jan Feb Mar April May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Fatalities 1 1 3 0 0 0 1 1 6* 0
Cumulative 1 2 5 5 5 5 6 7 13 13
All Surrey roads (provisional)
The 6 fatalities in October included 3 in one incident – a coach crash on the A3 near the Hindhead Tunnel
For those who prefer pictures
6
Note: The 2012 Surrey figure is a pro-rata of 10 months provisional data
Insert the title of your presentation here
Presented by Name HereJob Title - Date
A reduction in fatal casualties Who, why and what does this mean?
Louise Lloyd
Page 8
Agenda
Who: Which road user groups?
Why: Vehicle safety influences
Why: Temporal and economic influences
What does this mean?
1
2
3
4
5
Introduction
Aim
Page 9
Investigate the causes of the major reduction in the number of road accident fatalities in 2007-10
Aim
Page 10
Investigate the causes of the major reduction in the number of road accident fatalities in 2007-10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Casu
altie
s in
dexe
d to
200
0 fig
ure
Killed Seriously injured
Hypotheses
Page 11
Changes in:
Financial stability
Vehiclesafety
Weather
Traffic
Page 12
Agenda
Who: Which road user groups?
Why: Vehicle safety influences
Why: Temporal and economic influences
What does this mean?
1
2
3
4
5
Introduction
Page 13
Casualty trends by road user type
Killed casualty trend by casualty class
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Fata
l cas
ulati
es in
dexe
d to
200
0 fig
ure
vehicle occupant pedal cyclist motorcyclist pedestrian
Fatal casualties by age group
Page 14
Young driver licence holders
Page 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Prop
ortio
n of
pop
ulati
on
Male, 17-20
Male, all 17+
Female, 17-20
Female, all 17+
Page 16
Agenda
Who: Which road user groups?
Why: Vehicle safety influences
Why: Temporal and economic influences
What does this mean?
1
2
3
4
5
Introduction
Page 17
Exposure data by car class
Traffic (billion kilometres) by vehicle type
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Traffi
c (b
illio
n ki
lom
etre
s)
Minis and superminis Small saloons Medium saloonsLarge saloons Sports cars 4x4, people carriers
Fatality rate by car type
Page 18
0123456789
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Kille
d ca
sual
ty r
ate
Mini & superminis Small saloon Medium saloon
large/luxury saloon Sports 4X4, people carriers
Car registration year
Page 19
Year of accident
0-2 years
3-5 years
6-10 years
11-15 years
16+ years
2000 9% 9% 9% 11% 13%
2010 6% 7% 8% 8% 10%
Proportion of vehicle occupant fatalities for all fatally and seriously injured occupants
Car registration year
Page 20
Year of accident
0-2 years
3-5 years
6-10 years
11-15 years
16+ years
2000 9% 9% 9% 11% 13%
2010 6% 7% 8% 8% 10%
Proportion of vehicle occupant fatalities for all fatally and seriously injured occupants
Car registration year
Page 21
Year of accident
0-2 years
3-5 years
6-10 years
11-15 years
16+ years
2000 9% 9% 9% 11% 13%
2010 6% 7% 8% 8% 10%
Proportion of vehicle occupant fatalities for all fatally and seriously injured occupants
Page 23
Car secondary safety – drivers
Page 24
Car secondary safety – drivers
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
pre-
1976
1978
-79
1982
-83
1986
-87
1990
-91
1994
-95
1998
-99
2002
-03
2006
-07
2010
-11
Prop
ortio
n of
all
car
driv
er c
asua
lties
kill
edCar drivers
Page 27
Car secondary safety – pedestrian protection
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
pre-
1976
1978
-79
1982
-83
1986
-87
1990
-91
1994
-95
1998
-99
2002
-03
2006
-07
2010
-11Pr
opor
tion
of a
ll pe
dest
rian
casu
altie
s kill
ed
Pedestrians
Page 28
Car secondary safety – pedestrian protection
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
pre-
1976
1978
-79
1982
-83
1986
-87
1990
-91
1994
-95
1998
-99
2002
-03
2006
-07
2010
-11Pr
opor
tion
of a
ll pe
dest
rian
casu
altie
s kill
ed
Pedestrians
Page 29
Agenda
Who: Which road user groups?
Why: Vehicle safety influences
Why: Temporal and economic influences
What does this mean?
1
2
3
4
5
Introduction
Quarterly fatality numbers
Page 30
Quarterly fatality numbers
Page 31
Minimum quarterly temperature
Page 32
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Min
umum
ave
rage
tem
pera
ture
(ce
lsiu
s)
Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec
Minimum quarterly temperature
Page 33
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Min
umum
ave
rage
tem
pera
ture
(ce
lsiu
s)
Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec
Page 34
Agenda
Who: Which road user groups?
Why: Vehicle safety influences
Why: Temporal and economic influences
What does this mean?
1
2
3
4
5
Introduction
Conclusions
Page 35
Financial stability
Vehiclesafety
Weather
Traffic
Conclusions
Page 36
Traffic
General reduction in traffic
Reduction in young male drivers
Drink driving accidents reduced
Small reduction in speeding
Conclusions
Page 37
Financial stability
Traffic
General reduction in traffic
Reduction in young male drivers
Drink driving accidents reduced
Small reduction in speeding
Conclusions
Page 38
Vehiclesafety
No change to trend in improvements due to secondary safety
Conclusions
Page 39
Weather
Progressively colder winters
What does this mean in Surrey?
Page 40
41
This is important Road safety figures are always subject to some variances, but ... ... these results seem to be too extreme to be a random spike. We should not claim that we were responsible for all of this improvement. It seems to be a mixture of causalities – weather, recession, driver behaviour, vehicles More research is needed We need a dialogue on how to capture some or all of this improvement We need to inform drivers and vulnerable road users
Suggests that we can reduce road deaths still further ... if only we understand what is happening.
Conclusions
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