www.postersession.com 1 Senior Scientist , National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2 Professor of Applied Climate Science, University of Nebraska , Lincoln, 3 Consultant , World Bank, 4 NOAA and USAID Famine Early Warning System Network, 5 US Geological Survey and USAID Famine Early Warning System Network Corresponding author: [email protected] Roger S. Pulwarty 1 , Donald A. Wilhite 2 , Mannava Sivakumar 3 , Andrew Hoell 4 , James Verdin 5 The lifecycles of drought and drought risk management: Science, early warning and adaptation across timescales Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although recent drought-related disasters have contributed to a sense of urgency, droughts have not received commensurate attention within the hazards research and practitioner communities, unlike events such as hurricanes, floods and earthquakes which have direct and immediately visible impacts. Drought remains a “hidden” hazard (UNISDR 2011) , and yet can span timescales from seasons to decades, and spatial scales from a few km to entire regions. There is increasing concern worldwide about the ineffectiveness of current drought management practices. Most countries, regions and communities, currently manage drought risk through reactive, crisis-driven approaches. At the same time, numerous drought early warning systems are being implemented at different scales of governance. In this poster, lessons are drawn from over 21 drought early warning systems around the world (see below), in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. Two illustrative cases are discussed. In a pro-active framing, early warning systems integrate risk assessment, communication and decision support systems to cross the spectrum of potential drivers, impacts and responses (Cutter et al, 2012). Successful drought information systems have multiple sub-systems supported by research in integrated risk assessment, communication, and decision support of which early warning is a component and output. The challenge of drought, Post-Sendai Drought Early Warning Information Systems: An Assessment The cases show that drought information systems should be seen as investments rather than “costs”. faster rates of change of both climate, including heat stress /evaporative demand, and development may drive surprises and rapid transitions in which early warnings of emerging thresholds will be increasingly critical. Central to the successful drought risk management is the development, support, and training of a cadre of professionals and policy entrepreneurs who view the role of linking science, policy and practices as a core goal over the long term. Appraisals of these systems (Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014; Wilhite et a l 2014) illustrate that: • Effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. • Impact assessment and scenario development must approach climate model output far more critically than at present. There is no substitute for local monitoring and local communities must be supported in data and surveillance gathering; Hydrological Meteorological Socio-economic Geographical distribution of selected drought early warning systems Agriculturall From Weather to Climate: A continuum and an adaptation deficit There is an ongoing need to address the cross-scale nature of climate drivers, of early warning information-and corresponding monitoring, research and response in the present to shape responses to emergent events, and surprises as well as trends (Wilhite and Pulwarty, 2017) Multiple dimensions and timescales of drought (WMO CAgM) Onset Intensification Persistence Recovery Drought Endpoint? Precipitation Drought event • Meteorological indices have returned to normal • Soil moisture is restored in cultivated land • Pasture growth re- establishes • Forest growth re- establishes • Reservoirs and lakes refill Drought footprint • Agricultural and Natural ecosystem productivity returns to average pre- drought conditions • Lake and reservoir levels return to average pre- drought conditions • Socioeconomic conditions: • Do they return or stabilize? • In some cases we arrive at a “new normal” threshold • Level 2 – 4 drought • Water shortages crop damage, and fires are widespread • Fire risk high to extreme • Socioeconomic impacts are moderate to severe and widespread • Moderate (Level 1 - 2 • Some crop & pasture damage • Fire risk moderate - high • Water conservation measures activated • Socioeconomic impacts are mild to moderate • Abnormally dry (Level 0) • Soil moisture levels are low, crop & pasture growth delayed • Water alerts are issued Drought Event Normal precipitation level What Improvements could be made based on this experience? • Efficacy of FEWS NET tools and datasets in early warning & monitoring. • The need to incorporate regional/national scale climate variability/change analyses trends to inform medium- and long-term development programs • Improve global food accessibility (Markets & Trade) analysis to better support decision-making • In the ongoing (2016 2017) case of Somalia, the persistent need to strengthen the link between Early Warning and Early Response, worsened by civil insecurity, conflict, high food commodity and fuel prices on vulnerable communities (FEWSNet Reports, 2015-2017) a. ENSO drought impacts 2015; b. March-September 2015 rainfall anomaly for East Africa and for Ethiopia; c. Potential food insecurity outcomes for June-September 2016 projected by FEWS NET in February 2016,; d. June 2016 expected outcomes for the same period. Ethiopia suffered exceptional drought conditions in 2015-2016, similar in severity to the 1984 drought that was a major factor in the famine in which hundreds of thousands of people perished. Unlike that disastrous episode, widespread acute food insecurity was avoided in 2015-2016 as a result of the combination of early warning of potential food insecurity, and, social safety nets. Effective climate services,, included the near real time application of physical and social sciences to assess food insecurity and support resource prepositioning. This extremely significant result, unfortunately, could not be replicated in Somalia. a. b c. d. • Develops partnership and decision-making arrangements: networks of public-private practitioners : mapping cross-sectoral decision-making processes • Advances observations and prediction capabilities: Construct risk profiles incl. the role of rates of change in trends, frequency, and magnitude of extremes at different scales • Develops and enables enabling Capacity and Coordination: Integrate Research, Observations, and Assessments into early warning information on critical transitions and capacity for response (Pulwarty and Verdin, 2013) Authorized by the President and U.S. Congress, NIDIS has become widely-acknowledged as a trusted, credible and usable source of information and coordination from local to national levels that: IPCC SREX, 2012) Slow onset events/surprises? Emergency response…Resource allocation…Infrastructure design Early warning systems-insurance Integrated vulnerability assessment risk management 10 YEARS 100 YEARS SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-CENTURY 1 DAY 1 SEASON Case 1: The Famine Early Warning System Network: East African drought and food security Case 2: The U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System The advantages and disadvantages of different approaches taken to drought have been identified over many years, as has the necessity of locally-driven approaches (Table). In a changing climate there are the additional needs to consider (1) System decompensation: exhausting the capacity to adapt which results in a strong risk of underestimating the complexity of adaptation, (2) Alternative means of addressing water security. Optimal adaptation practices include novel configurations of efficiency and land and water resources (Wilhite and Pulwarty, 2017). The new, multipartner International Drought Management Programme is developing in-country cases to illustrate the tangible benefits of proactive vs. reactive approaches to drought risk management. References Cutter, S et al., 2012: Managing the Risks from Climate Extremes at the Local Level. Chapter 5 in IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extremes & Disaster to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge Press pp. 291-338 Pulwarty, R., M. Sivakumar, 2014: Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management. Weather and Climate Extremes 3, 14-21 Pulwarty, R., and J. Verdin, 2013: Crafting early warning systems. in Birkmann. J. (ed) Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Towards Disaster Resilient Societies UNU Press Tokyo UNISDR, 2011: Global Assessment Report:. Chapter 3: Drought risks . Geneva Switzerland. Wilhite, D. M. Sivakumar, R. Pulwarty, 2014: Managing drought risk in a changing climate: The role of National Drought Policy. Weather and Climate Extremes 3, 4-13 Wilhite, D. and R. Pulwarty, 2017: Drought and Water Crises . CRC Press, Taylor and Francis (in press) Crisis Management Investments • Expensive- Costs + costs of inaction • Repeats past mistakes Post-impact • Relief/emergency assistance Treats the symptoms of vulnerability - impacts, adjustment • Can reward poor resource management • Can help the already well-off at the expense of the most vulnerable Increases vulnerability assistance from government & donors Risk Management Investments • Short-term—EWS, networks • Long-term—institutional capacity, structural adjustments Pre-impact • Mitigation, risk reduction • Test system brittleness Promotes improved stewardship of natural resources • Identifies and reduces vulnerability, builds capacity and self-reliance Drought, Crises and Risk: Weighing the costs and the benefits
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1SeniorScientist,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,2ProfessorofAppliedClimateScience,UniversityofNebraska,Lincoln,3Consultant,WorldBank, 4NOAAandUSAIDFamineEarlyWarningSystemNetwork,5USGeologicalSurveyandUSAIDFamineEarlyWarningSystemNetwork
Correspondingauthor:[email protected]
RogerS.Pulwarty1,DonaldA.Wilhite2,Mannava Sivakumar3,AndrewHoell4,JamesVerdin5Thelifecyclesofdroughtanddroughtriskmanagement:Science,earlywarningandadaptationacrosstimescales
Droughtisamongthemostdamaging,andleastunderstood,ofall“natural”hazards. Althoughrecentdrought-relateddisastershavecontributedtoasenseofurgency,droughtshavenotreceivedcommensurateattentionwithinthehazardsresearchandpractitionercommunities,unlikeeventssuchashurricanes,floodsandearthquakeswhichhavedirectandimmediatelyvisibleimpacts.Droughtremainsa“hidden”hazard(UNISDR2011),andyetcanspantimescalesfromseasonstodecades,andspatialscalesfromafewkmtoentireregions.Thereisincreasingconcernworldwideabouttheineffectivenessofcurrentdroughtmanagementpractices.Mostcountries,regionsandcommunities,currentlymanagedroughtriskthroughreactive,crisis-drivenapproaches.Atthesametime,numerousdroughtearlywarningsystemsarebeingimplementedatdifferentscalesofgovernance.Inthisposter,lessonsaredrawnfromover21droughtearlywarningsystemsaroundtheworld(seebelow),inbothdevelopinganddevelopedcountriesandatregional,nationalandcommunitylevels.Twoillustrativecasesarediscussed.Inapro-activeframing,earlywarningsystemsintegrateriskassessment,communicationanddecisionsupportsystemstocrossthespectrumofpotentialdrivers,impactsandresponses(Cutteretal,2012).Successfuldroughtinformationsystemshavemultiplesub-systemssupportedbyresearchinintegratedriskassessment,communication,anddecisionsupportofwhichearlywarningisacomponentandoutput.
Thechallengeofdrought,Post-Sendai
DroughtEarlyWarningInformationSystems:AnAssessment
Thecasesshowthatdroughtinformationsystemsshouldbeseenasinvestmentsratherthan“costs”.fasterratesofchangeofboth climate,includingheatstress/evaporativedemand,and developmentmaydrivesurprisesandrapidtransitionsinwhichearlywarningsofemergingthresholdswillbeincreasinglycritical.Centraltothesuccessfuldroughtriskmanagementisthedevelopment,support,andtrainingofacadreofprofessionalsandpolicyentrepreneurswhoviewtheroleoflinkingscience,policyandpracticesasacoregoaloverthelongterm.
Appraisalsofthesesystems(Pulwarty andSivakumar,2014;Wilhite etal2014)illustratethat:• Effectiveearlywarningdependsuponamulti-sectoralandinterdisciplinarycollaborationamong
allconcernedactorsateachstageinthewarningprocessfrommonitoringtoresponseandevaluation.However,thelinksbetweenthecommunity-basedapproachandthenationalandglobalEWSsarerelativelyweak.
• Impactassessmentandscenariodevelopmentmustapproachclimatemodeloutputfarmorecriticallythanatpresent.Thereisnosubstituteforlocalmonitoringandlocalcommunitiesmustbesupportedindataandsurveillancegathering;
Hydrological
Meteorological
Socio-economic Geographicaldistributionofselecteddroughtearlywarningsystems
Agriculturall
FromWeathertoClimate:Acontinuumandanadaptationdeficit
Thereisanongoingneedtoaddressthecross-scalenatureofclimatedrivers,ofearlywarninginformation-andcorrespondingmonitoring,researchandresponseinthepresenttoshaperesponsestoemergentevents,andsurprisesaswellastrends(Wilhite andPulwarty,2017)
Multipledimensionsandtimescalesofdrought(WMOCAgM)
Onset Intensification Persistence Recovery DroughtEndpoint?
Precipita
tion
Droughtevent
• Meteorologicalindiceshavereturnedtonormal• Soilmoistureisrestored
incultivatedland• Pasturegrowthre-
establishes• Forestgrowthre-
establishes• Reservoirsandlakes
refill
Droughtfootprint
• AgriculturalandNaturalecosystemproductivityreturnstoaveragepre-droughtconditions
• Lakeandreservoirlevelsreturntoaveragepre-droughtconditions
• Socioeconomicconditions:• Dotheyreturnor
stabilize?• Insomecaseswearriveata
“newnormal”
Droughtindicesthreshold
• Level2– 4drought• Watershortagescropdamage,and
firesarewidespread
• Fireriskhightoextreme
• Socioeconomicimpactsare
moderatetosevereandwidespread
• Moderate(Level1-2
• Somecrop&pasturedamage
• Fireriskmoderate-high
• Waterconservationmeasuresactivated• Socioeconomicimpactsaremildto
moderate
• Abnormallydry(Level0)
• Soilmoisturelevelsarelow,crop&pasture
growthdelayed
• Wateralertsareissued
DroughtEvent
Normalprecipitationlevel
WhatImprovementscouldbemadebasedonthisexperience?• EfficacyofFEWSNETtoolsanddatasetsinearlywarning&monitoring.• Theneedtoincorporateregional/nationalscaleclimatevariability/change
analysestrendstoinformmedium- andlong-termdevelopmentprograms• Improveglobalfoodaccessibility(Markets&Trade)analysistobettersupportdecision-making• Intheongoing(20162017)caseofSomalia,thepersistentneedtostrengthenthelinkbetweenEarly
WarningandEarlyResponse,worsenedbycivilinsecurity,conflict,highfoodcommodityandfuelpricesonvulnerablecommunities(FEWSNet Reports,2015-2017)
a.ENSOdroughtimpacts2015;b.March-September2015rainfallanomalyforEastAfricaandforEthiopia;c.PotentialfoodinsecurityoutcomesforJune-September2016 projectedbyFEWSNETinFebruary2016,;d.June2016expectedoutcomesforthesameperiod.
Ethiopiasufferedexceptionaldroughtconditionsin2015-2016,similarinseveritytothe1984droughtthatwasamajorfactorinthefamineinwhichhundredsofthousandsofpeopleperished.Unlikethatdisastrousepisode,widespreadacutefoodinsecuritywasavoidedin2015-2016asaresultofthecombinationofearlywarningofpotentialfoodinsecurity,and,socialsafetynets.Effectiveclimateservices,,includedthenearrealtimeapplicationofphysicalandsocialsciencestoassessfoodinsecurityandsupportresourceprepositioning.Thisextremelysignificantresult,unfortunately,couldnotbereplicatedinSomalia.
a. b
c.
d.
• Developspartnershipanddecision-makingarrangements:networksof public-privatepractitioners:mappingcross-sectoraldecision-makingprocesses
• Advancesobservationsandpredictioncapabilities:Constructriskprofilesincl.theroleofratesofchangeintrends,frequency,andmagnitudeofextremesatdifferentscales
• DevelopsandenablesenablingCapacityandCoordination:IntegrateResearch,Observations,andAssessmentsintoearlywarninginformationoncriticaltransitionsandcapacityforresponse(Pulwarty andVerdin,2013)
AuthorizedbythePresidentandU.S.Congress,NIDIShasbecomewidely-acknowledgedasatrusted,credibleandusablesourceofinformationandcoordinationfromlocaltonationallevelsthat:
IPCCSREX,2012)
Slowonsetevents/surprises?
Emergencyresponse…Resourceallocation…Infrastructuredesign
Earlywarningsystems-insurance Integratedvulnerabilityassessmentriskmanagement
10YEARS
100YEARS
SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-CENTURY
1DAY
1SEASON
Case1:TheFamineEarlyWarningSystemNetwork:EastAfricandroughtandfoodsecurity
Case2:TheU.S.NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem
Theadvantagesanddisadvantagesofdifferentapproachestakentodroughthavebeenidentifiedovermanyyears,ashasthenecessityoflocally-drivenapproaches(Table).Inachangingclimatetherearetheadditionalneedstoconsider(1)Systemdecompensation:exhaustingthecapacitytoadaptwhichresultsinastrongriskofunderestimatingthecomplexityofadaptation,(2)Alternativemeansofaddressingwatersecurity.Optimaladaptationpracticesincludenovelconfigurationsofefficiencyandlandandwaterresources (Wilhite andPulwarty,2017).Thenew,multipartnerInternationalDroughtManagementProgramme isdevelopingin-countrycasestoillustratethetangiblebenefitsofproactivevs.reactiveapproachestodroughtriskmanagement.
ReferencesCutter,Setal.,2012:ManagingtheRisksfromClimateExtremesattheLocalLevel.Chapter5inIPCCSpecialReportonManagingtheRisksofExtremes&DisastertoAdvanceClimateChangeAdaptation.CambridgePresspp.291-338Pulwarty,R.,M.Sivakumar,2014:Informationsystemsinachangingclimate:Earlywarningsanddroughtriskmanagement.WeatherandClimateExtremes 3,14-21Pulwarty,R.,andJ.Verdin,2013:Craftingearlywarningsystems.inBirkmann.J.(ed)MeasuringVulnerabilitytoNaturalHazards:TowardsDisasterResilient SocietiesUNUPressTokyoUNISDR,2011:GlobalAssessmentReport:.Chapter3:Droughtrisks.GenevaSwitzerland.Wilhite,D.M.Sivakumar,R.Pulwarty,2014:Managingdroughtriskinachangingclimate:TheroleofNationalDroughtPolicy.WeatherandClimateExtremes 3,4-13Wilhite,D.andR.Pulwarty,2017:DroughtandWaterCrises.CRCPress,TaylorandFrancis(inpress)
CrisisManagementInvestments• Expensive- Costs+costsofinaction• Repeatspastmistakes
Post-impact• Relief/emergencyassistance
Treatsthesymptomsofvulnerability- impacts,adjustment• Canrewardpoorresourcemanagement• Canhelpthealreadywell-offattheexpense
ofthemostvulnerable
Increasesvulnerabilityassistancefromgovernment&donors
RiskManagementInvestments• Short-term—EWS,networks• Long-term—institutionalcapacity,structuraladjustments
Pre-impact• Mitigation,riskreduction• Testsystembrittleness
Promotesimprovedstewardshipofnaturalresources• Identifiesandreduces
vulnerability,buildscapacityandself-reliance
Drought,CrisesandRisk:Weighingthecostsandthebenefits
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