1 The Changing Nature of the Labour Market in Australia in 2014 Dr Tony Stokes and Dr Sarah Wright Australian Catholic University In the last decade the Australian Labour Market has gone through a period of unprecedented change. These changes have come about for a number of reasons both domestic and international in nature. This article will consider some of the forces bringing about these changes and it will discuss the impact of those changes on the Australian labour market and the industrial relations system. Structural Change There has been considerable structural change in the economy in recent decades. Much of this has been due to: • changes in the pattern of domestic and international demand • growth in China and other Asian economies spurring commodity prices and the value of the Australian dollar • economic uncertainty due to the GFC and sovereign debt issues in many industrial economies • industry restructuring to lower costs • government policies, such as cuts to protection, privatisation • new technology, eg. automated production processes, computer banking, on- line retail sales and • changes to industrial relations policies that have created a more flexible labour market. The impact of these changes has seen major shifts in sectoral employment. As the share of total GDP produced by different industries change so does the employment in these industries. Historically, the manufacturing industry has been the dominant producer and employing industry, but its contribution to GDP and subsequently the number of employed persons has been declining (See Figure 1). In the 1990s, the manufacturing industry was the largest employer. However, it is now fourth to other business services, retail and wholesale trade, and construction, which have 14.5, 13.8
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The Changing Nature of the Labour Market in Australia in 2014
Dr Tony Stokes and Dr Sarah Wright Australian Catholic University
In the last decade the Australian Labour Market has gone through a period of
unprecedented change. These changes have come about for a number of reasons both
domestic and international in nature. This article will consider some of the forces
bringing about these changes and it will discuss the impact of those changes on the
Australian labour market and the industrial relations system.
Structural Change
There has been considerable structural change in the economy in recent decades.
Much of this has been due to:
• changes in the pattern of domestic and international demand
• growth in China and other Asian economies spurring commodity prices and
the value of the Australian dollar
• economic uncertainty due to the GFC and sovereign debt issues in many
industrial economies
• industry restructuring to lower costs
• government policies, such as cuts to protection, privatisation
• new technology, eg. automated production processes, computer banking, on-
line retail sales and
• changes to industrial relations policies that have created a more flexible labour
market.
The impact of these changes has seen major shifts in sectoral employment. As the
share of total GDP produced by different industries change so does the employment in
these industries. Historically, the manufacturing industry has been the dominant
producer and employing industry, but its contribution to GDP and subsequently the
number of employed persons has been declining (See Figure 1). In the 1990s, the
manufacturing industry was the largest employer. However, it is now fourth to other
business services, retail and wholesale trade, and construction, which have 14.5, 13.8
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and 8.9 percent of employed persons respectively. Manufacturing has fallen from 15.9
percent of all employed persons in 1990 to only 8.2 percent in 2014 (see Figure 2).
Figure 1: Industry Share of Output in Australia
Source: ABS and RBA, 2014 Figure 2: Employment by Industry
Source: ABS and RBA, 2014
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Growth in employment in industries generally follows changes in trends in output. While the mining industry has the greatest percentage increase in employment in the last decade, it is still a very capital intensive industry and only employs 2.4 percent of Australia’s workforce. The largest increase in employment in the last 12 months has been in health care and social assistance, followed by public administration and safety (Figure 3). The industry that shed the most jobs in the year was wholesale trade. One positive aspect is that after many years of decline, there was employment growth in manufacturing in the last year.
Figure 3: Annual Employment Growth as of February 2014
Source: ABS and RBA, 2014
Overall trends in Unemployment and Participation Australia’s unemployment rate has been largely influenced by overseas factors. The economic downturns in 2001 and the GFC led to rises in Australia’s unemployment rate (Figure 4). Australia has performed better in these periods of downturn than most other industrial nations due to growth in trade, especially with China, and economic policies designed to boost spending and employment at those times. Australia’s unemployment rate has begun to creep up in recent times as a result of continued global uncertainty and the high value of the Australian dollar reducing the competitiveness of many of Australia’s export industries and lowering the prices of imported goods into the domestic market. In the period April 2013 to April 2014, unemployment rose from 5.6 percent to 5.8 percent (seasonally adjusted), despite an increase in employment of 0.9 percent (seasonally adjusted).
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Figure 4: Australia’s Unemployment Rate
Source: ABS and RBA, 2014 The participation rate rose considerable after 2005 (Figure 5). This was partly caused
by higher growth rates and as a result more job opportunities but also as a result on
industrial relations policy changes, such as WorkChoices, that created increased
labour market flexibility and more part-time and casual employment opportunities.
Since 2010 the participation rate has fallen as global and domestic growth has slowed.
In April 2014 the participation rate stood at 64.7 percent. At the same time, the
employment to working age population has also declined, showing that a smaller
percentage of the working age population are being employed.
Figure 5: Australia’s Employment and Participation Rates
Source: ABS and RBA, 2014
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The Growth of Part-time Employment Over the last 30 years part-time employment has increased at a greater rate than full-time employment (Figure 6). As a result the proportion of part-time employed persons has risen over the period, increasing from 17 percent in 1983-84 to 30 percent in 2013-14. Between 2003 and 2008 full-time employment grew at a faster rate than part-time employment. This was a reflection of the tightening of the labour market. During the Global Financial Crisis the opposite occurred and full-time jobs were replaced by part-time jobs. However, since 2010 full-time positions have begun to rise again although this growth has been slow. In April 2014 full-time employment rose 14,200 and part-time employment was unchanged.
Figure 6: Full-time and Part-time Employment Figures for Australia.
Source: ABS, 2014
Growth in Casual Employment
There has been strong growth in the number of casual employees compared to other
employees. There appears to be a strong link between part-time work and casual
work, as two thirds of all casual employees worked part-time hours. In 1996, 16
percent of all employees were casual workers. The proportion of casuals reached a
peak of 21 percent in 2007, and in 2011 was 19 percent (Figure 7). In 2012, 20
percent of male workers and 26 percent of female workers were casuals (Figure 8).
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Figure 7: Proportions of Males and Females in Casual Employment in Australia
Source: ABS, 2012
Figure 8: Proportions of Males and Females in Employment by Classifications in
Australia
Source: Professor Gabrielle Meagher and ABS, 2013
It is interesting to note that the proportion of female casual workers has been falling at
the same time that the proportion of male casual workers has been rising. This may be
due to the increased flexibility of hours in part-time employment.
Casual workers tend to work in lower skilled occupations. In 2013, Casual employees
made up a large component of sales workers, labourers and community and personal
service workers (Figure 9). Generally, the proportion of casuals decreased as the skill
level of the occupation group increased.
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Figure 9: Casual Employees by Occupation of Main Job
Source: ABS and RBA 2014
The Issue of Underemployment
While the level of unemployment in Australia has been relatively good compared to
most other industrial nations in recent years, the issue of underemployment with the
growing casualisation and part-time nature of employment has become an
increasingly important consideration. The underemployment rate is the number of
underemployed workers as a proportion of the labour force. Underemployed persons
include part-time workers who want and are available to work more hours, and full-
time workers who worked part-time hours in the reference week for economic reasons
(i.e. involuntarily) (ABS, 2014). In February 2014, there were 915,300
underemployed people. The underemployment rate was higher for women (9.6
percent) than men (5.7 percent) (Figure 10). This is related to the higher proportion of
While the number of working days lost has risen in the last two years this is not a
result of the Federal industrial relations policies but rather disputes with State
Governments over cut backs in employment, wages and working conditions. The
combined Education and Training and Health Care and Social Assistance Industry
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(17,800) accounted for 49 percent of the total number of working days lost in the
December quarter 2013. Meanwhile, New South Wales (18,400) accounted for 51
percent of all working days lost in the December quarter 2013.
Proposed changes outlined under the Fair Work Amendment Bill 2014
The recently elected coalition government has set out a number of amendments to the
Fair Work Act 2009, with the introduction of the Fair Work Amendment Bill 2014.
While these changes support the Coalition's Policy to Improve the Fair Work Laws,
the ACTU and Labor Party argue that these changes will undermine the rights and the
level of protection of employees. Some of the proposed changes include:
(i) Individual Flexible Arrangements (IFA's)
Employers will be able to negotiate using non-monetary payments when determining
if an employee is better off overall. Without safeguards these IFA's have the potential
to allow a real cut in wages and a loss of conditions for employees.
(ii) Changes to National Employment Standards
Restrictions will be introduced on the payment of accrued annual leave entitlements
for an employee who has been terminated.
(iii) Annual leave and workers compensation
Employees will not be able to accrue or take annual leave while receiving workers
compensation.
(iv) Transfer of business and employee protection
There will be a reduction in entitlements for employees who retain their job when a
business is sold or transferred to a new employer, e.g. Qantas.
(v) The right to strike
Employees will not be able to strike (protected action ballot) unless bargaining has
commenced. This means that employees cannot use protected industrial action as a
tool to compel their employer into commencing bargaining.
(vi) Greenfield Agreements
New faith bargaining rules will include that an employer is able to choose which trade
union organisation they negotiate with and the employer will initiate the three month
time frame for negotiation. At the end of the three month period the employer can
apply to the FWC for approval of agreement (arbitration) even if an agreement was
not reached. There are no provisions in the bill for any consequences if the employer
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fails to give a three month negotiating period. Employers could also potentially delay
bargaining beyond the three month negotiation period and then apply to the FWC for
arbitration. There are no provisions allowing a union to compel the employer to
bargaining. If the agreement is not approved by the FWC any good faith bargaining
orders or rights to enforce good faith bargaining are terminated.
(vii) The power of unions and the right of entry
There will be tighter eligibility criteria for granting permits for unions to enter work
premises. In addition the FWC will not be required to conduct a hearing before
dismissing an unfair dismissal application. This will make it more difficult for a
worker to fight an unfair dismissal case.
Reference List Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013). Industrial Disputes, Australia, Cat. No. 6321.0.55.001. Canberra. Australian Bureau of Statistics (various). Employee Earnings and Hours. Cat.No. 6306.0. Canberra. Australian Bureau of Statistics (various). The Labour Force. Cat.No. 6203.0. Canberra. Websites Australian Bureau of Statistics. http://www.abs.gov.au Fair Work. http://www.fairwork.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx Greenacre Educational Publications. http://homepages.ihug.com.au/~gep/ Reserve Bank of Australia. http://www.rba.gov.au/