THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY – WHY AND HOW: ROLE OF SCIENCE AND CULTURE

THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY – WHY AND HOW: ROLE OF SCIENCE AND CULTURE

Ivo ŠlausWorld Academy of Art and Science, member Board of Trustees,

SEED – South East European Division, presidentWorld Council Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs

and The Club of Rome

Why1) The contemporary world:

◙ globalization – science generated◙ rapid changes – science generated◙ characterized by uncertainties and instabilities, ◙ number of Earths required to provide resources used by humanity and to absorb their emissions for each year:

1970 1980 2005 0.86 1.00 1.25World is dangerously in a state of overshoot.

◙ Increasing dissatisfaction of the public with governance

♣ Cross-border trade: 1950 = 8% GDP, 2000 = 25% (Kant)♣ 24 “globalizers” (3 billions) increased GDP/c by 5% vs “nonglobalizers” decreased by 1%400 household goods in UK 20% cheaper than 10 years agoBy 2010 50% internet users in developing world vs 4% now.♣ Worker/producer←person→consumer/stakeholderDramatic “conventional jobs” reduction, new skills♣ 30 new infectious diseases in 20 years, resistance to antibiotics, flu pandemic♣ Terrorism (tanker in harbor: 55xHiroshima), crime (cyber)♣ Trust changes quickly: 1975: 20% American trust military vs 63% in 2000Decision-making: quite local and global

Educated vs Uneducateddemonstrate 31% 6%

stopped buying goods 70% 34%

Failures

◙ Income gap: 1960 1990 1997 30:1 60:1

74(82):1◙ Undernourishment in industrial 2.5%, in Africa 40%◙ In 1998 › 45% of people had to live on ‹ $ 2/day1981 to 2001: living on $1/day fell by factor of 2while living on $2/day increased from 2.4 to 2.7 billions ◙ 54 countries experienced in 1990-2001 decline in GDP/c ◙ 1945 →1985 →2005 1985 2005

USA 23,000 10,500 USSR/Russia 40,000 9,000

world 70,000 30,000

Country Governed by the Will of the People?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Total Sample

Mid East

Latin America

Asia/Pacific

E & C Europe

Africa

European Union

North America

Non-EU Europe

Yes

No

Gallup Voice of the People May-June 2005: 50,000 citizens, 65 countries equivalent 1.3 billion persons

(1)Election free/fair (2)Country governed by the will

of the people

◊ world 47% 30%

◊ East Central Europe 33% 22%

Political stability index = (1)(2) + (1)(-2) – (-1)(-2)

PSI 2003 PSI 2004 PSI 2005

World 14 12 5

Middle East 44 45 26

Business leaders Political leaders

• Not competent 23% 45%• Unethical 38% 49%• Too much power 46% 53%• Dishonest 40% 61%

Most important problems facing the world today

• Poverty 26%• Terrorism 12%• Unemployment 9%• Wars and conlicts 8%• Economic problems 7%• Environment 6%• Drugs 5%• Crime 4%

CONSEQUENCES

PROBABILITY

MAD

WMD

local war

DESTRUCTION OF CIVILIZATION

100 %

-

NATURAL

Learn from successes:

☺ world ave developing world

1960: 2250 2100 Kcal/day capita

1997: 2750 2600 Kcal/day capita

☺ Higher life expectancy and healthy active life

☺ end of Cold War and spread of democracies

☺ successful treaties, e.g. ozone

How

‼ Eliminate violence, war, terrorism→ Development,human and social dignity, full employment Culture of peace and knowledge:

democracy and freedom

‼ Eliminate ignorance → Research and education ↓ ↓

in spite of cumulative advantage feature of not an elite in a sea science → breakthru → catch up of mediocrity

◙ We have to live with dangerous technologies ‼

◙ We have to live with uncertainties: in quantum physics from uncertainties to quantum computer and life ‼

◙ Reduce non-renewable resources and substitute by other resources.

◙ Reduce and eliminate dangers and threats we face.

◙ Knowledge can cause quantitative and qualitative jump in the GDP/capita

◊ psycho-social pressures and stress + perception that our dignity and that of our social group is threatened + short term interests ← globalization → interdependence/ no major war

◊ energy demand: in 2030 → 2.6 times larger

◊ small influence → large effects (CO2) → Search for alternative inputs much earlier than we reach a maximum.

◊ whatever we do not do today will be more difficult to do tomorrow.

Our greatest success: Knowledge

☺ existing science, humanities and technology;

☺ knowledge one produces: ongoing and planned R&D,

innovations; ideas

☺ education;

☺ language, literature, art

Knowledge is the main resource in a knowledge-society. It permeates the life and the culture of a society: policy- and decision-making. It implies long-term and global perspective. Knowledge society is constantly changing, constantly asking: why.

Knowledge is inexhaustible and it is increased by sharing.

Caveat: Knowledge is contextualized only within a specific cultural system.All cultures need constant changes?!!

TIME♣ Chronos and Kairos♣ There was no time when we did not exists (Bhagavad Gita)♣ Man is afraid of time, but time is afraid of pyramides(Arab)♣ Future is an ethical category – we choose it.

(Soedjatmoko) Theory of relativity – Albert Einstein

While most resources existed separately of people, knowledge resides in people.

☺S&T give the power to change the future. ☺“Today knowledge is becoming the main political power”

(Alvin Toffler)♣ IGO handful 1900 to 4667 in 1996♣ NGO 196 in 1900 to 44,000 in 2000♣ global civil society♣ Knowledge-Governance Intertwining

Values – Goals – Rules – Habits Long-term and short-term (market, current politics)

♥ Assure sustainable consumption. Minimize the dangers of modern technologies. Revitalize hidden and traditional knowledge.♥ Beyond tolerance to cultural understanding.

☺Each nuclear state reduces its nuclear weapons (number and power) in half every two years.

☺Each state reduces its total military power in half every five years.

☺USA, Russia and China ban antipersonnel mines.

☺Appreciate: Education is needed not only for jobs and skills, but much more to be able to live.

☺Assure: Low-cost technologies, e.g. ICT: $100 laptops.

Roadmap

☺ education at all levels for everybody and lifelong

Europe USA Japan South Korea

◙ % working population 21 % 38% 36%

with tertiary education

◙ Gross enrolment 52% 81% 82%

Within 500 leading universities – Europe – cradle of education – has very few.

☺ European Institute of Technology as a network

Senior executives would spend most R&D in : China 39%, USA 29%, India 28%, UK 24%, 19% Germany

Shift to interpersonal work → increase number of jobs

No discrimination w/r/t gender, age, disability

Flexibility – Mobility – Stability – Social cohesion

(Indian-born residents in the USA account for 0.1% of the USA population and their aggregate income represent 10% of Indian GDP)

Jobs are and will be not what they used to be: high use of ICT and networking.

♣ Economy will swell by 40% from 2005 to 2015♣ Chinese middle class: from 65 millions in 2005 to 650 in 2020

☺Appreciate: ♣ Work ≠ Employment. ♣ Changes in jobs, skills, human resources development. ♣ Capacity to manage change. ♣ Taking risks and controlling risks.

☺Each state reduces unemployment by 2% each 2 years by increasing employment in education and research. [Since less person-hours are needed to achieve the same output in agriculture and manufacturing and since part of services are redundant, the demand for new jobs will be in education (About a factor 4-6, since instead of 12-16 year education, a lifelong, i.e. about 60 year long education, and for a much larger number od persons.) and in R&D. Knowledge-intensive sectors in EU = 33% (UK = 41%)

◙ Europe USA Japan Turkey GER&D 1.99% 2.76% 3.12% 0.64%◙ top 1% cited articles 37.3% 62.8%◙ scientific publications 46.1% 39.4% 10.8% 1.6% ◙ world researchers 33.4% 22.8% 11.7% 0.4%

(5521 in thousands) 1843 1261 647 23◙ researchers/million inhabi 2319 4373 5085 325

☺ Each state increases its GER&D to reach 3% of its GDP, but assuring that all R&D outputs indicators (top 5% cited papers, number of NP and FM laureates and of fellows of international/regional academies, number of leading universities and research institutes) increase, intertwining knowledge with economy and governance (assessed by involvement of active top scientists in policy- and decision-making bodies above a threshold of 10%). Ownership of knowledge – Knowledge as a common good.

Cooperation

“The best place to store food is in another person belly.” (Eskimos’saying)

♥ Golden moral rule: reciprocal altruism is an example of a win-win game. The state when nobody can gain without somebody else losing – i.e. all win-win games are exhausted - is called the Pareto optimum.

♥ Innovations and more importantly, scientific breakthroughs can increase the Pareto optimum.

TABLE 25 Various indicators assessing social impact of R&D

Country ESI HDI GCI GI HLS

Range 0-100 0-1 Ranking Ranking: 62-1

0-100

Slovenia 58,8 0,879 31 25 69,5

Croatia 62,5 0,809 53 22 66,0

B&H 51,3 - - - 61,5

S &MN - - - - 61

Macedonia 47,2 0,772 81 - 56

Romania - 0,775 75 40 59,5

Bulgaria - 0,779 64 - 45,0

Greece 50,9 0,885 35 26 -

Albania 59,7 0,733 - - -

Italy 47,2 0,913 41 24 84,5

Austria 64,2 0,926 17 8 81,5

Hungary 62,7 0,835 33 23 65,0

Czech Republic 50,2 0,849 39 15 69,5

Turkey 50,8 0,742 65 53 72,0

USA 53,2 0,939 2 11 89,5

Ireland 54,8 0,925 30 1 90,5

Conclusion

♥ In our own selfish interest we have to get involved in the betterment of global conditions. We need to emphasize cooperation, networking and solidarity, increasing human options and freedom.

♥ Development of human and social capital, and increasing the Pareto optimum requires knowledge-based society.

♥ In a knowledge society individuals and social groups will behave and act irrationally, make numerous mistakes, even be stupid. It is the responsibility of the knowledge society to develop and establish ways that can minimize their harm and maximize their possible benefits.