The Italian Economy: Recent Developments and Future Prospects Taipei, 11 November 2019 Angelo Cicogna Chief Representative Banca d’Italia Tokyo Representative Office Disclaimer: the views set out in this presentation are the presenter’s own and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Bank of Italy. INVEST IN ITALY ROADSHOW
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The Italian Economy: Recent Developments and Future Prospects · The Italian Economy: Recent Developments and Future Prospects Taipei, 11 November 2019 Angelo Cicogna Chief Representative
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The Italian Economy: Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Taipei, 11 November 2019
Angelo Cicogna
Chief Representative
Banca d’Italia
Tokyo Representative Office
Disclaimer: the views set out in this presentation are the presenter’s own
and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Bank of Italy.
Leverage dynamics: debt, equity and prices (per cent)
Contribution of equity (flows) Contribution of equity (price)
Contribution of financial debt leverage (r.h.s.)
adjusted leverage (r.h.s.)
Business sector’s financial resilience has improved through deleveraging…
…and diversification of sources of financing
STRONGER FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT MEDIUM TERM PROSPECTS
of which: IPOs 2013-
2018
Non financial corporations listed on the Italian stock exchange
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STRONGER FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT MEDIUM TERM PROSPECTS
Sources: Bank of Italy and Istat for Italy, ECB for euro-area countries, Office for National Statistics and Bank of England for the United Kingdom, Federal Reserve System - Board of Governors and Bureau of Economic
Analysis for the United States.
Households financial debt
(per cent of gross disposable income)
Household financial conditions remain healthy
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STRONGER FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT MEDIUM TERM PROSPECTS
System’s financial soundness sustained by increased capital base
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7
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Jun
-09
De
c-0
9
Jun
-10
De
c-1
0
Jun
-11
De
c-1
1
Jun
-12
De
c-1
2
Jun
-13
De
c-1
3
Jun
-14
De
c-1
4
Jun
-15
De
c-1
5
Jun
-16
De
c-1
6
Jun
-17
De
c-1
7
Jun
-18
De
c-1
8
Italian banks’ capital ratio (Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio - %)
Italy’s banking sector is solid (1)
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STRONGER FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT MEDIUM TERM PROSPECTS
Flows of new NPLs back to pre-crisis standards
Reduction of legacy NPLs stock has accelerated…
New non-performing loan rate (%)
Gross and net non-performing loans
(% of total loans)
Italy’s banking sector is solid (2)
Quality of loans portfolio steadily improving…
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STRONGER FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT MEDIUM TERM PROSPECTS
…sustaining increased profitability…
Return on equity
(main European banks; 2019 Q2)
Cost to income ratio
(main European banks; 2019 Q2)
Italy’s banking sector is solid (3)
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…reflected in this year’s positive stock market performance of Italian banks
STRONGER FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT MEDIUM TERM PROSPECTS
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100
105
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125
130
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Equity market indices (1/1/2019 = 100)
ITALIAN BANKS
EURO AREA BANKS
Italy’s banking sector is solid (4)
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STRONGER FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT MEDIUM TERM PROSPECTS