Snapshot of the Irish Economy October 2009
May 24, 2015
Snapshot of the Irish Economy
October 2009
The Sesame Street Introduction
Today’s presentation is brought to you with the letters Y, C, I, G, X and M, some numbers and lots of pictures!
Y = C + I + G + (X – M)
Then and Now
Standardised Unemployment Rate (September): 1984: 15.8%2009: 12.9%
CPI Annual Inflation Rate (September): 1984: + 5.9%2009: – 6.5%
Interest Rate (September): 1984: 13.00% (Central Bank Rediscount Rate)2009: 1.00% (ECB Main Refinancing Rate)
Exchequer Deficit (%GDP):1984: 10.50%2009: 10.75%
Where Next?
Davy Forecasts (Rossa White)
GDP Component
2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
Consumer Spending
-1.0 -7.0 1.5 3.8
Investment -15.5 -27.0 -11.5 2.8
Government Spending
2.6 -1.0 -3.0 -1.5
Exports -1.0 -2.0 3.5 6.0
Imports -2.1 -7.5 1.4 4.9
GDP -3.0 -6.3 1.2 4.1
GNP -2.8 -9.6 0.5 3.9
% Change in Volume
ESRI Forecasts for 2010
Quarterly Economic Forecasts
GDP Component Spring 2009 Summer 2009 Autumn 2009
Consumer Spending
-3.0 -3.0 -2.0
Investment -11.6 -17.2 -15.5
Government Spending
-2.0 -3.0 -2.0
Exports -5.2 -1.4 1.1
Imports -1.1 -4.8 -1.2
GDP -1.2 -2.3 -1.1
GNP -1.4 -2.3 -1.7
Real Annual Growth %
Retail Sales Index (All Businesses)
Earnings
Savings0
10000
20000
30000
40000
savin
gs
2006:Jul 2007:Jan 2007:Jul 2008:Jan 2008:Jul 2009:Jandate
Household Savings in Accounts of 2 Years or less
Source: Central Bank
Borrowings
Source: Central Bank
Unemployment Rates in Ireland
Inflation in Ireland-5
05
10
15
20
25
inflat
1980 1990 2000 2010date
Monthly Annual Inflation Rate
Investment
Investment
Government Balance
The Public Finances
The God That Failed
2007 2008 2009 E
Value Added Tax
Income Tax
Excise
Stamps
Corporation Tax
Capital Gains Tax
Customs
Training & Employment Levy
Unallocated
14,496,588
13,572,410
5,837,878
3,185,602
6,390,625
3,105,495
265,904
2,501
0
13,429,602
13,176,857
5,443,338
1,650,792
5,065,894
1,430,080
248,001
1,032
0
11,420,000
12,475,000
4,634,000
980,000
3,740,000
625,000
230,000
1,000
0
Total 47,249,352 40,777,196 34,400,000
Tax Revenue (€000s)
Jan-Sept 2008 Jan-Sept 2009
Value Added Tax
Income Tax
Excise
Stamps
Corporation Tax
Capital Gains Tax
Customs
Training & Employment Levy
Unallocated
10,998,485
8,690,515
4,150,996
1,358,084
2,121,951
623,926
194,303
692
30,034
8,657,291
7,873,515
3,312,225
679,587
2,601,266
219,482
151,125
988
16,711
Total 28,478,147 23,705,608
Tax Revenue for Period Jan – Sept 2009, €000
Expenditure (€000s)Vote or Group of Votes 2007 2008 2009E
Health & Children 12,448,835 13,745,317 13,426,037
Social & Family Affairs 8,180,934 9,399,098 10,915,679
Education & Science 8,443,974 9,031,516 8,900,030
Other 15,534,992 17,136,863 14,162,658
Total 44,608,735 49,312,794 47,404,404
National Debt
Balance of Trade
Balance of Payments