The Iran Nuclear Crisis Herzliya Conference Scott D. Sagan February 4, 2009.

The Iran Nuclear CrisisThe Iran Nuclear Crisis

Herzliya ConferenceHerzliya Conference

Scott D. SaganScott D. SaganFebruary 4, 2009February 4, 2009

Proliferation Fatalism: The belief that coercive diplomacy can not stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

Deterrence Optimism: The belief that a nuclear Iran can be easily deterred through threats of nuclear retaliation.

(Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE(Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE

• Iran “halted” its nuclear weapons program in 2003

• Iran’s weapons program was a violation of its NPT obligations

• Covert enrichment program exists outside of Natanz

Dangers of a Nuclear IranDangers of a Nuclear Iran

• Cold War analogy flawed

• Pakistan analogy better– Shield for aggressive

action– Ambiguous “control”– Dangerous custodians– Anonymous attack

• Further proliferation

Moving Forward?Moving Forward?

• Stronger Carrots – Regime Coexistence– LWR Assistance– Grand Bargain

• Stronger Sticks– Sanctions on Refined

Petroleum– Financial Sanctions

• Military Options