The Internet as an Entertainment Medium, or… If Spielberg Can’t Figure it Out, Can Anyone? MIT Media Lab 15 December 2000.

The Internet as an The Internet as an Entertainment Medium,Entertainment Medium,

or…or…

If Spielberg Can’t Figure it If Spielberg Can’t Figure it Out, Can Anyone?Out, Can Anyone?

MIT Media LabMIT Media Lab15 December 200015 December 2000

The ‘personalization’ of media—and The ‘personalization’ of media—and the resulting fragmentation of the resulting fragmentation of

audience—makes the business of audience—makes the business of online entertainment a…online entertainment a…

……challenge.challenge.

DENDEN

RIP 5/2000

PseudoPseudo

RIP 9/2000

iCASTiCAST

RIP 11/2000

POPPOP

RIP 9/2000(pre-natal)

Challenge #1:Challenge #1:Eyeballs Fund ProgrammingEyeballs Fund Programming

It takes a It takes a mass audiencemass audience to generate the to generate the revenue which funds programming.revenue which funds programming.

But, given the vastness of the Internet, how do But, given the vastness of the Internet, how do you aggregate a mass audience online?you aggregate a mass audience online?

(Hint: it takes more than marketing)(Hint: it takes more than marketing)

TV has already shown how an TV has already shown how an increase in programming options can increase in programming options can

reduce market sharereduce market share

1990-91 1995-96 1999-00

Avg. # Channels Avg. # Channels ReceivableReceivable

3333ChannelsChannels

4141ChannelsChannels

6262ChannelsChannels

Source: Nielsen

Total Network Affiliate ShareTotal Network Affiliate Share(Primetime, ABC/CBS/NBC/FOX)(Primetime, ABC/CBS/NBC/FOX)

6767ShareShare 6262

ShareShare

5252ShareShare

30.228.2

25.0 23.420.5

18.6

74-75 79-80 84-85 89-90 94-95 99-00

All in All in the the

FamilyFamily

6060Min.Min.

DynastyDynasty Rose-Rose-anneanne

Sein-Sein-feldfeld

WhoWhoMillion-Million-

airreairre

As a result, even TV’s #1 show is As a result, even TV’s #1 show is now less of a shared experiencenow less of a shared experience

#1 Primetime Series#1 Primetime Series(HH Rating)(HH Rating)

Source: Nielsen NTI

Web ‘programs’ typically reach a smaller Web ‘programs’ typically reach a smaller audience than the audience than the lowest-ratedlowest-rated show on the show on the lowest-ratedlowest-rated station in Boston. station in Boston.

Compared to broadcasting, Web Compared to broadcasting, Web entertainment is splinter-castingentertainment is splinter-casting

Challenge #2:Challenge #2:Needle in a HaystackNeedle in a Haystack

Even faced with 60 channels, TV viewers can Even faced with 60 channels, TV viewers can easily ‘sample’ programming.easily ‘sample’ programming.

(How else do you explain the success(How else do you explain the successof BattleBots!?)of BattleBots!?)

But, as Focus Groups have told us, the Web But, as Focus Groups have told us, the Web creates hurdles to discovering creates hurdles to discovering

programming…programming…

Consumers expect a TV-like ease of use from entertainment at home…

Consumers expect a TV-like ease of use from entertainment at home…

Simple technology that never makes them feel stupid

Comfortable viewing experience

Easy to locate content—there’s always something on

Grazing without advance commitment

Simple technology that never makes them feel stupid

Comfortable viewing experience

Easy to locate content—there’s always something on

Grazing without advance commitment

They don’t want to struggle to get their entertainment onlineThey don’t want to struggle to get their entertainment online

…but current Web entertainment fails these tests…but current Web entertainment fails these tests

Often require downloads, plug-ins, or high PC power/bandwidth

Not comfortable sitting at a PC for long-form entertainment (more than

a couple minutes)

Users have no easy way to locate entertainment content

Downloads and stream buffering demand commitment before ‘sampling’

Often require downloads, plug-ins, or high PC power/bandwidth

Not comfortable sitting at a PC for long-form entertainment (more than

a couple minutes)

Users have no easy way to locate entertainment content

Downloads and stream buffering demand commitment before ‘sampling’

Challenge #3:Challenge #3:Broadband May Not Be the Holy GrailBroadband May Not Be the Holy Grail

Even with Broadband delivery, the Even with Broadband delivery, the quality of transmission pales in quality of transmission pales in

comparison to TV.comparison to TV.

Can the infrastructure even support Can the infrastructure even support mass video streaming?mass video streaming?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Cable Modem DSL Satellite Fixed Wireless

(in millions)(in millions)

1.4m1.4m

11.8m11.8m

13.8m13.8mHo

us

eho

lds

Ho

us

eho

lds 1.8m1.8m

28.8m28.8m

23.8m23.8m

18.5m18.5m

13.3m13.3m

8.6m8.6m4.8m4.8m

1.8m1.8m

4%4%9%9%

14%14%

20%20%

26%26%

31%31%

36%36%

Source: Jupiter

Dial-up will remain dominant Dial-up will remain dominant across the next 5 yearsacross the next 5 years

•Consumers will Consumers will demand TV-like demand TV-like quality from TV-like quality from TV-like programmingprogramming

Narrow bandNarrow band

BroadbandBroadband(XDSL, cable)(XDSL, cable)

10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

•Voice telephonyVoice telephony•Text retrieval/ Text retrieval/ browsingbrowsing•SurfingSurfing•Internet Internet telephonytelephony•AudioAudio•Voice annotation Voice annotation to textto text

•Image/photo Image/photo transfertransfer•Video conf.Video conf.

•CD quality soundCD quality sound

•Full motion videoFull motion video

•High resolution High resolution imagingimaging•Virtual realityVirtual reality

Very BroadbandVery Broadband(next generation(next generationHFC, FTTC, FTTH)HFC, FTTC, FTTH)

Bandwidth requirements (Kbps)

Broadband doesn’t guarantee a TV-like experience Broadband doesn’t guarantee a TV-like experience

Challenge #4:Challenge #4:A Scratch Without an ItchA Scratch Without an Itch

Are we trying to deliver content that few Are we trying to deliver content that few people are interested in seeing?people are interested in seeing?

Is the Web not a ‘programming’ environment?Is the Web not a ‘programming’ environment?

Are people already finding the Web Are people already finding the Web entertaining with surfing, connecting, and entertaining with surfing, connecting, and

game playing?game playing?

Source: CyberDialogue

For most users, entertainment content is informationFor most users, entertainment content is information

Music searchMusic search 16%16%Album reviewsAlbum reviews 12%12%Artist interviewsArtist interviews 7%7%Concert schedulesConcert schedules 7%7%Music newsMusic news 4%4%

Music SitesMusic Sites

Find program info.Find program info. 26%26%Read reviewsRead reviews 16%16%Search local info.Search local info. 12%12%Search TV listingsSearch TV listings 12%12%Download TV clipsDownload TV clips 2%2%Star interviewsStar interviews 2%2%Industry newsIndustry news 2%2%

TV SitesTV Sites

Movie reviewsMovie reviews 43%43%Check show timesCheck show times 25%25%Industry newsIndustry news 10%10%Search for filmsSearch for films 7%7%Read star interviewsRead star interviews 5%5%Entertmt. directoriesEntertmt. directories 5%5%Movie fan sitesMovie fan sites 3%3%

Movie SitesMovie Sites

Content used onentertainment sites

Content used onentertainment sites

The online medium is developing its own version of entertainmentThe online medium is developing its own version of entertainment

NapsterNapster

AmIHotOrNot.comAmIHotOrNot.com

Dancing BabyDancing Baby

File-swappingFile-swapping

Single-purpose fun sitesSingle-purpose fun sites

Viral contentViral content

EverquestEverquest

Multi-player gamingMulti-player gaming

Research AreasResearch Areas

Business ModelsBusiness Models: Both subscription and : Both subscription and advertising-based models have failed. advertising-based models have failed. Is there another option?Is there another option?

TechnologyTechnology: Is there a browser-free : Is there a browser-free application that can act as a TV-tuner? application that can act as a TV-tuner?

Other PlatformsOther Platforms: Possible to avoid the Web via : Possible to avoid the Web via Internet-enabled TV, CD-ROM, wireless, or Internet-enabled TV, CD-ROM, wireless, or handheld devices?handheld devices?