The Interdependence Between Urban and Rural Food Security in Asia Professor Paul PS Teng Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning, NIE Senior Fellow, RSIS, NTU, Dr. Margarita Escaler Research Fellow National Institute of Education, and Dr. Mely Caballero-Anthony RSIS, NTU, Singapore
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The Interdependence Between Urban and Rural Food Security in Asia 2011
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The Interdependence Between Urban and Rural Food Security in
AsiaProfessor Paul PS Teng
Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning, NIESenior Fellow, RSIS, NTU,
Dr. Margarita EscalerResearch Fellow
National Institute of Education, and
Dr. Mely Caballero-AnthonyRSIS, NTU, Singapore
• Food security landscape in Asia• Importance of urban food security• Multi-dimensional nature of food security• Urban-rural linkages and interdependence• Policies & action interventions• Case study: Singapore
Outline of Presentation
Asia: A contrasting scorecard
• 60% of world’s population• Six of the top ten most populous countries• Fastest growing economies – “Asia-7”
• 3.1B people; GDP $14.2Trillion
• 27% of global GDP (rising to 51% in 2050)
• Half of world’s urban population• More than half of world’s slum population• Eleven megacities • Large agricultural exporter and importer• 60% of world’s under-nourished
Food Security Landscape in Asia
Food Balances in Asia
Crop ItemMillion MT
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
WHEAT Global Production 596 612 682 684 648
Asia Imports(% of Global Exports)
35(30)
31(27)
34(24)
35(26)
33(27)
RICE(milled)
Global Production 421 434 448 440 452
Asia Imports(% of Global Exports)
10(31)
8.5(29
6.9(24)
8.6(28)
8.7(29)
CORN Global Production 714 795 799 812 814
Asia Imports(% of Global Exports)
34(37)
35(36)
34(40)
37(39)
36(39)
SOYBEAN Global Production 237 221 212 261 258
Asia Imports(% of Global Exports)
39(56)
48(61)
51(66)
61(65)
68(69)
Source: USDA FAS
Asia by 2050
Food Security Landscape in Asia
Urban2010
Rural2010
Total 2010
Urban2050
Rural2050
Total2050
ASIA 1.8 2.4 4.2 3.4 1.7 5.1
WORLD 3.5 3.4 6.9 6.3 3 9.3
Three key drivers• ~20% increase in total population• ~89% increase in urban population• 51% of global GDP (from 27% in 2010)
Population
Food Demand Changes in Asia
• Reduced per capita consumption of rice• Increased consumption per capita of wheat and
wheat-based products• Increased diversity in the food groups consumed• Rise in high proteins and energy dense diets• Increased consumption of temperate zone
products• Rising popularity of convenience food and
beverages• Westernization of diets
Source: Pingali, FAO 2004
• Meat consumption100 years ago, average 25 kg/person/yrToday, average 80 kg/person/yr (USA – 124 kg/person/yr)China:1962 – 4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 60 kg/person/yr
• Fish consumption1960s – 9.9 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 16.4 kg/person/yrChina accounted for most of world growth (26.1 kg/person/yr)
At present, 50% of the world’s population lives in cities – Asia accounts for half the share
By 2050, 70% will be urban (mostly in developing countries) with Asia seeing an increase of ~1.7 Billion
Shift in the locus of poverty to cities
Increase in slum dwellers to 828 M in 2010 from 777 M in 2000; Asia accounts for more than half the world’s total slum population
Urbanization of Asia
Asian Urbanization 2010 2050
Total Urban Population(millions)
3,486 6,285
East Asia 785 1,189
West Asia 155 296
Southeast Asia 247 501
South Central Asia 571 1,396
Urbanization (%)
East Asia 50 79
West Asia 67 75
Southeast Asia 42 66
South Central Asia 32 56
ASIA 1,758 3,382Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision
Importance of Urban Food Security
“A hungry person with low blood sugar is a very angry person – virtually ungovernable”
Ruth Oniang’o
Why is food a security issue?
* Lack of access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food
Food Shortages
Food Contamination
Food Price Increases
Deterioration of Health
Deterioration of Nutrition
Loss of Life
Economic Instability
Political Instability
Conflict
Social Instability
Food Hoarding
FoodInsecurity*
Globalisation
Conflict
Climate Change
Unique features of cities
- Most food is purchased- Food basket is more varied and more diverse
in origin- More vulnerable to changes in the int’l markets- Supermarket chains and control
of access- Availability of more processed foods- Higher food prices have greater adverse effects- Poor living conditions for urban poor- Jobs of urban poor and insecure, uncertain
II.Physical Access
ProductionImports
Stockpiles
I. Availability
Primary ProductionCrops/Animals
III.Economic Access
IV.Utilization
Demand for Food
Inputs
Labor Land Water
Sunshine
Other Uses
Fish
Distribution
Biofuels
Animal Feed
PoultryMammals
AquacultureCapture Natural
Ecosystems
Population IncreasesDiet DiversificationLifestyle Changes
Urbanization Etc.
Processing/Distribution
Losses
Household Food
Security
Trade
Multi-dimensional Nature of Food Security
Issues of Concern
Availability Physical Access
EconomicAccess
Utilization
• Fragility of agro-systems
• Climate change • Competition for
land• Changing
demographics • Waste• Int’l trade
policies• Biofuel policies• Subsidies• Etc.
• Poor infrastructure• Conflict• Market
imperfections• Waste• Etc.
• Health and nutrition
• Fortificationprograms
• Education• Etc.
• Social programs,safety nets
• Employment• Income• Macroeconomic
policies• Entrepreneurship• Etc.
Urban-Rural Inter-dependence
URBAN RURAL- Urban markets spur economic growth in countryside
- Urban residents depend indirectly on agriculture
- Incomes from non-agricultural activities and remittances help decreaserural poverty & increase agricultural innovation
- Commuting and circular migration for rural residents decreases dependence on subsistence production for food security
- In times of crisis, urban residents may migrate to countryside
- Cities can have a more direct link with agriculture via urban and peri-urban agriculture
URBAN RURAL
Threats to Urban Food Security
Natural calamities and pest outbreaksMacro-economic policy changes
Unseasonal weather patternsRising energy prices
Competition from energy sectorTemporary illness/ unemployment
PovertyUnderinvestment in agriculture
Competition for landChanging demographics
HIVClimate Change
Fragility of agro-ecosystemsAgricultural policy Changes
FoodProduction
and consumption
At source
FoodProduction
and consumption
Export ofsurplus
Role of public sector
Role of private sector
URBAN
RURAL
RURAL
URBAN
PERIURBAN
Feeding cities requires rural surplus production
PERIURBAN
Approaches to ensure future surpluses in the “Hinterland” and in the global food supply chain?
• Closing the yield gap – e.g. increasing farmer access to better seeds,fertilizers, water and pest management practices, equipment, training;improving market infrastructure and transport, etc.
• Increasing production limits – e.g. modern biotechnology to improve seed
• Reducing waste
• Changing diets
• Expanding aquaculture
CHALLENGE: All of the above must be done in an environmentally sustainable manner
• Net food importing country with limited land resources and largely urban environment
• Imports over 90% of its food• Local production accounts for 23% eggs, 4% fish,
7% leafy vegetables consumed
ASEAN
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE & AMERICAS Singapore’s food sources
Enhancing local food supply resilience
• Increase self production of selected items• Diversify food sources• Develop non-traditional supply chains through smart
partnerships • Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture (UPA)
– Agroparks; Aquazones– Vertical farming– Roof top aquaponics, aeroponics, etc
• Stockpiles• Reduce waste• Etc.
“National Food Security depends on Regional and Global Food Security”
Conclusions
• Food security in Asia needs to be a priority – threat of hunger & instability could increase
• Urban dimensions of food security merit distinct attention
• Food security is multi-dimensional• There is no quick fix• More interconnected policy making is critical• More holistic approach is required• For Singapore, a broad-based, multi-sectoral,
cross-nation approach is needed to ensure urban food security
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