The Inter-Regional Migration in China - China Data …chinadatacenter.org/presentation/ChinaMigration.pdf · The Intra or Inter-province Migration by education (No Schooling, Eliminate

The InterThe Inter--Regional Migration Regional Migration in Chinain China

ShumingShuming BaoBaoChina Data CenterChina Data Center

the University of Michiganthe University of Michigan

April 14, 2008East-West Center

QuestionsQuestions

Who are moving?Why moving?Where from and where going?What impacts?What driving factors?What is past, current and future trends?What data sources?

BackgroundBackgroundChanges in spatial distribution of population:

1949-1982, primarily dominated by high natural population growth and controlled by the government1982-2000, featured by the increasing migration with a declining natural population growth

Shock effect:Rapid regional development in coast area under marketing economy since 1980 => unbalance labor marketDeregulated household registration since 1990 => greatly enhanced labor mobility

Rapid Urbanization: Remarkable growth in urban cities and rural towns in China from 1980’s-2000’s. There were about 41,636 townships (6,152 Jiedao, 19,522 Towns and 21,499 Xiangs) in 2005, with a urban town population of 562 million and a Xiang and rural township population of 745 million.

Who They Are?Who They Are?

Rural labor released from agricultural workPeople looking for a job change or relocationStudentsPeople moving to new housesFamily unionRetired people for new permanent places

Migration by Age Groups (Male/Female)Data Sourc: China 2000 Population Census

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+

Who They Are: Educational AttainmentWho They Are: Educational Attainment

The Education of Intra and Inter-Province Migration(1995-2000) in %

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

UnderElementary

Middle School High School ProfessionalSchool

AssociateCollege

College Graduate

Intra-province Inter-province

The Education of Inter and Inter-Province Migration(1995-2000)

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

UnderElementary

Middle School High School ProfessionalSchool

AssociateCollege

College Graduate

Intra-province

Inter-province

•The migration with middle school and under count more than 60%

•The majority of inter-province migration have a lower education than intra-province migration

Who They Are: OccupationWho They Are: Occupation

Migration by Occupation in 2000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Administrator/M

anager

Professional/T

echnica

lCleric

al & Related

Sales & Serv

iceAgricu

lture

& Related

Productio

n & Rela

ted

Other

Intra-Province

Inter-Province

Migraion by Occupation in 2000 (%)

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

Admini

strato

r/Man

ager

Profes

siona

l/Tech

nical

Clerical &

Related

Sales &

Service

Agricu

lture

& Related

Produc

tion &

Related

Other

Intra-ProvinceInter-Province

•The migration in production and agriculture count about 56%

•More than 60% of inter-province migration are in production industry

Why They Move?Why They Move?

Looking for new jobs Job transfer of relocationStudy or trainingNew housesMove with family

Motivation of Migration (Male/Female)Data Source: 2000 China Populat ion Census

0.005.00

10.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.00

Working and

Business

Job T

ransfe

rJo

b Relo

catio

nLe

arn an

d Trainin

gChan

ge Hou

se M

arriage

Family

Depend

ants

Live w

ith re

lative

s or fr

iends

Other

Where to Go?Where to Go?Destination by City, Town and Rural

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1982-87 1985-90 1990-95 1995-2000

CityTownRural

The cities and towns attracted more than 80% of migration.

Where to Go: Centers of AttractionsWhere to Go: Centers of Attractions

Net Migration to Ppulation by Province(%)

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Nation

alBeij

ingTian

jinSha

ngha

iHeb

eiSha

ndon

gJia

ngsu

Zhejia

ngFuji

anGua

ngdo

ngHain

anLia

oning Jilin

Heilon

gjian

gSha

nxi

Henai

Anhui

Jiang

xiHub

eiHun

an

Inner

Mongo

liaSha

anxi

Gansu

Ningxia

Xinjian

gCho

ngqin

gSich

uan

Guizho

uGua

ngxi

Yunna

nQing

hai

Tibet

1. Beijing2. Shanghai

3. Guangdong

4. Xinjiang

Data Source: China 2000 Population Census

KMPPPPP

MI

ji

ijititi

ijij

∑−=

,

)]/()[/(Robert Bachi’s Preference Index:

Where To & From: InterWhere To & From: Inter--Province MigrationProvince Migration

Data Source: China 2000 Population Census

Spatial Distributions of IntraSpatial Distributions of Intra--Province MigrationProvince Migration

The Driving Factors for Migration: The Driving Factors for Migration: An Extended ModelAn Extended Model

Dependent variable = Inter-provincial migration rate(the migration from province i to province j divided by total migration from province i)

Independent variablesDistance between province i and jRatio of destination to origin incomeStock of previous migrants in destination Education level in originEducation level in destinationRatio of urban population shareRatio of destination to origin mean temperatureRatio of destination to origin per capita real FDIRatio of destination to origin per capita real fixed asset investmentRatio of destination to origin manufacturing shareRatio of destination to origin share of population that is minority The impact of East and West development

790790765Sample Size

0.7210.6910.4562Adjusted R-squared

7.1211***3.2485***5.6684***Constant

0.3547***0.2096***0.7684***Western China Destination

0.9654***0.7757***0.0958***Eastern China Destination

0.0916***0.00460.0277*Destination FDI/Origin FDI

-0.7982***-1.4566***-0.2445***Destination Fixed Asset Investment/Origin Fixed Asset Investment

0.0138-0.0110-0.0822***Dest. Minority Share/Origin Minority Share

-0.1360.6053***-0.6057***Dest. Manufacturing Share/Origin Manufacturing Share

0.3154***0.4473***-0.2177**Dest. Temperature/Origin Temperature

1.0202***0.0850-0.1582Dest. Urban Share/Origin Urban Share

-0.0421***-0.2224***-0.472***Unemployment rate in dest.

0.7976***-0.04140.0275Unemployment rate in origin

-0.07493.5194***2.4462***Education level in dest.

0.0443-1.39***-0.7721***Education level in origin

0.10330.9899***0.3731*Dest. Income/Origin Income

-0.3678***-0.4049***-1.2211***Distance

0.5843***0.5033***Past migration flows

00-0595-0085-90Variables

The Estimates from the Extended ModelsThe Estimates from the Extended Models

Some Findings on the Major Influences on Inter-regional Migration

Past migration flowsDistanceUnemployment rate in origin Spatial differences in urbanizationSpatial differences in climateSpatial differences in construction spending and FDIWhere destination is located (East and West)

What Impacts on Labor, Economy and Social What Impacts on Labor, Economy and Social System StructureSystem Structure

Impact on population and labor force structureThe increasing dependency ratio in rural areas and the Western China regions

Impact on urban-rural structureThe increasing urban population densityRedistribution of urban-rural populationSegregation

Impact on social system structure and public policiesHousehold registrationEducationMedical care systemRetirement systemEmployment/Unemployment system

The Trends of Migration in China The Trends of Migration in China (1980(1980--2005)2005)

The Inter-province Migration (82-05)

3,0443,384 3,323 3,497

4,867

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

82-87 85-90 90-95 95-00 00-05

•There are about 189 million people moved in recent years, the intra-province migration counts about 66% while the inter-province migration counts 34%.

•The inter-province migration keep increasing since 1980s

Changes in UrbanChanges in Urban--Rural MigrationRural Migrationthe migration flow between cities, towns and rural region

City

RuralTown

35.1% 29.89%

39.3%39.3%

89.6%

32.8%

3.8% 6.6%

32.1%

– Increasing: % of migration out from cities from 17.9% in 82-87, 18.6% in 85-90, 30.9% in 90-95, and 31.4% in 95-00

– Declining: % of migration out from rural areas from 68% in 82-87 to 58.7% in 95-00

Changes in InterChanges in Inter--province Migration province Migration (85-90, 90-95, 95-00, 00-05)

• Increasing inter-province migration flows from 85 to 2005• Stronger tendency of local concentration• Big loser of migration: the central region

The Inter-Province Migration from 85-05 (%)

32.08 31.529.38

36.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

85-90 89-95 95-00 00-05

Challenges and OpportunitiesChallenges and OpportunitiesThere are still a large pool of rural labor force to be relocated (By the year of 2005, the rural population is about 800 million,accounting about 57% of national population. It is estimated that about 200 million rural labor force will be looking for jobs within next several years)Restructuring in developed regions and relocated jobsThe increasing dependency ratio in rural and western regionsDiscrimination toward the migration without local household registration (education, job opportunities, medical and retirement benefits)Preservation of culture diversityPressure on environment and increasing demand for resources

Data Sources for Migration StudiesData Sources for Migration Studies

- Government Statistics

- Survey Data (rural, urban, enterprise, market)

- Census Data (population, basic units, agriculture)

- GIS Data (administrative boundaries, roads, rivers, land, elevation,….)

- Remote Sensing Data

China Census Data with GIS MapsChina Census Data with GIS Maps- The 2000 China Township Population Census Data with GIS Maps

- The 2000 China County Population Census Data with GIS maps

- The 2000 China Province Population Census Data with GIS Maps

- The China Historical Population Census Data with GIS Maps (1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000)

- China 2000 Population Data with One sq km GIS Maps- China 2004 Economic Census Data with ZIP Maps

What is Available in the Census DataWhat is Available in the Census Data

2000 Population Census:

General InformationNationalitiesAge StructureHousehold StructureEducationFertility DeathsMarriage MigrationHousing StatusIndustries and Occupations

Geographical Levels:

Country |

Province |

Prefecture |

County |

Township |

1 sq km Grid

2004 Economic Census:

EmploymentRevenueIndustriesProductsOwnerships

> 2,000 demographic variables in 2000 population Census data> more than 5 millions units in 2004 economic Census data

2000 Population Census of China2000 Population Census of China

Date and Time: 0:00AM of November 1, 2000 Residents: All permanent residents who have Chinese citizenships and have permanent living places in Mainland China. 2000 Census forms: (1) Short Form(2) Long Form(3) Death Form (dead between 11/1/1999 and 10/31/2000)(4) Temporary Resident Form (live in the place and left

the original pace with household registration for less than 6 months)

Migration Data in 2000 CensusMigration Data in 2000 CensusThose who have a different counties or districts of birth (within or outside of the current province) than the current counties or districts Those who have moved from other townships to the current place within last 5 years (95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00)Those who have moved from other places to current place for more than five yearsThose who don’t have the local household registration but have been living in this townships for more than 6 monthsThose residents who have local household registration but have left for other places for more than 6 monthsThose who have resided in this township for less than 6 months but have been away from the place of their permanent household registration for more than 6 months. Those who live in this township during the population census while the places of their household registration have not yet settled. Those who used to live in this township but are working or studying abroad during the Census and have no permanent household registration for the time being. Where the residents were from: Jiedao, town or townships of the same or other provincesMigration by age sex, and reasons for moving from other places to the current place The Intra or Inter-province Migration by education (No Schooling, Eliminate Illiteracy, Primary School, Junior Middle School, Senior Middle School, Specialized secondary school, Junior College, University, Graduate Student)The Intra or Inter-province Migration by occupationThe intra or inter-province female migration with birth orders of 1st, 2nd and 3+ between November 1st of 1999 11.l and October 31 of 2000.

2000 Census Data Tables2000 Census Data TablesThe 2000 Census data table consists of two parts: The first part (A tables) contains data

from all households that reflects the basic situation of population. The second part (L tables) contains data from the long forms which present various detailed compositions of the population. Short Form : basic information

General InformationNationalitiesAgeEducationHouseholdsDeathsMigrationHousing

Long Form (9.5%, households selected by a random sampling program): extended information, including all short form items plus other items

General InformationNationalitiesEducationIndustries and OccupationsMarriage Fertility MigrationHousing

Some Notes on 2000 CensusSome Notes on 2000 CensusData in the publication do not include population not enumerated in the Census.

Data in the publication do not include the 2.5 million servicemen of the People's Liberation Army.

Total population as shown in this publication is 1,242.61 million, or 23.22 million less than the population figure of 1,265.83 million (including 2.5 million servicemen) released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The post-Census sample survey indicates an undercount of 1.81% in the 2000 Census.

The sampling ratio for various compositions of the population may not be the same as household is used as the ultimate sampling unit.

Urban/Rural ResidenceUrban/Rural Residence

100 Urban 城镇

110 City 城市

111 Urban with Districts (>1500 persons/sq km) 设区市的市区

112 Urban without Districts 不设区市的市区

120 Town 镇

121 The capital town of county 县及县以上人民政府所在建制镇的镇区

122 Other towns 其他建制镇的镇区

200 Rural 乡村

210 Rural Townships 集镇

220 Villages 农村

Others (mines, tourist areas, development zones, etc.)

Urban if more than 3000 population

Rural if less than 3000 population

Historical Population Census Data with MapsHistorical Population Census Data with Maps(1953,1962,1982,1990,2000)

Census 1953

Census 1982

Census 2000

Census 1962

Census 1990

China Population Grid Maps (one kmChina Population Grid Maps (one km22))

Elevation

Aged Population(64+)

Migration (%)

Sex Ratio (M/F)Labor Force (16-64)

Population Density

Economic Census 2004Economic Census 2004

Population, Employment and ElevationPopulation, Employment and Elevation

China Data OnlineChina Data Online

CHINA STATISTICS CHINA STATISTICS

•Monthly Statistics

•National Statistics

•Provincial Statistics

•City Statistics

•County Statistics

•Industrial Data

•Statistics on Map

•Statistical Yearbooks

CENSUS DATA CENSUS DATA

• Economic Census Data

• Industrial Census Data

• Population Census (82,90,00,05)

ReferencesReferencesBao, Shuming, Örn B. Bodvarsson, Jack W. Hou, and Yaohui Zhao, 2008. The Deregulation of People Flows in China: Did the Structure of Migration Change? Presented at the CES 2008 Annual Meeting.Shi, Anqing, Shuming Bao, 2007. Migration, Education and Rural Development: Evidence from China 2000 Population Census Data. In Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies. 2007, Vol. 5 (2): 163 – 177.Bao, Shuming, Shuanglin Lin, Changwen Zhao (Eds), 2006. China’s Economy After WTO Accession, Ashegate.Zhao, Changwen, Wing Thye Woo, Shuming Bao (Eds.), 2006. Sustainable Development and Global Challenges: Towards a New Paradigm for Developing Western China. Sichuan Publishing Co. Wu, Haiying, Qinling Duan, Shuming Bao (Eds.). 2006. The Sustainable Development of Regional Economy in the West China. China Economic Press. Bao, Shuming, Anqing Shi, and Jack W. Hou. 2006. Migration and Regional Development in China. In Shuming Bao, Shuanglin Lin, Changwen Zhao (Eds.), Chinese Economy after WTO Accession. Ashegate. Bao, Shuming, Anqing Shi and Jack W. Hou. 2005. An Analysis of the Spatial Changing Patterns of Migration in China. In China Population Science, 2005 (5).Bao, Shuming and Wing Thye Woo. 2004. Migration Scenarios and Western China Development: Some Evidence from 2000 Population Census Data. In Ding Lu and William A W Neilson (Eds.), China’s West Region Development: Domestic Strategies and Global Implications, World Scientific Publishing Co.Démurger, Sylvie, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Wing Thye Woo, Shuming Bao, and Gene Chang. 2004. Explaining Unequal Distribution of Economic Growth among China Provinces: Geography or Policy? In: Aimin Chen, Gordon G. Liu, and Kevin H. Zhang (Eds.), Urbanization and Social Welfare in China, Ashgate..Démurger, Sylvie, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Wing Thye Woo, Shuming Bao, Gene Chang and Andrew Mellinger, 2002. Geography, Economic Policy and Regional Development in China. In: Asian Economic Papers, Vol. 1 (1).Démurger, Sylvie, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Wing Thye Woo, Shuming Bao, and Gene Chang, 2002. The Relative Contributions of Location and Preferential Policies in China’s Regional Development: Being in the Right Place and Having the Right Incentives. In: China Economic Review, Vol. 13: 444-465.Bao, Shuming, Gene Chang, Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Wing Thye Woo. 2002. Geographic Factors and China’s Regional Development Under Market Reforms, 1978–98. In: China Economic Review, Vol. 13:89-111.

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