The independence and determinants of outcomes: The relevance for Policy Bilal Nasim, Researcher CMPO 9 th February 2010 DCSF 2010 Research Conference.

The independence and determinants of outcomes: The relevance for Policy

Bilal Nasim, Researcher CMPO

9th February 2010

DCSF 2010 Research Conference

2

We still lag behind other countries in terms of labour productivity…

International comparisons of output per hour worked (UK=100)

Productivity is the main determinant of national living

standards. It refers to how well an economy uses the

resources it has.

The UK has relatively poor productivity compared to other major economies, although we have made progress in recent years.

ONS: International Comparisons of Productivity OMahoney and de Boer (2002) Britain’s Relative Productivity Performance: Updates to 1999

Up to one fifth of the UK's productivity gap with France and Germany is a result of the lack of skills of

workers in the UK.

Canada

France

Germany

Italy

Japan

UK

USA

G7 exc. UK

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

3

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

0.350

0.400

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

Gin

i

…income inequality is at its highest since records began …

The higher the gini coefficient the greater the

income inequality

Gini coefficient, UK 1970-2008• Income inequality rose

significantly over the past 30 years, particularly during the 1980s

• Levels of inequality have stabilised since the late 1990s, though have started to tick upwards in the past few years

• Inequality is now statistically significantly higher than the level of inequality observed in 1997

• Inequality in the UK is above the OECD average, but below that of the USA and Mexico

Sources: Households Below Average income / IFS (2009) Poverty and inequality in the UK 2009

4

…social mobility remains an issue…

38%31%

1958 Cohort 1970 Cohort

42%35%

1958 Cohort 1970 Cohort

Percentage of sons in lowest income quartile whose parents

are also in lowest quartile

Percentage of sons in highest income quartile whose parents

are also in highest quartile

Income mobility fell between cohorts born in 1958 and 1970 (and was high by international standards)…

…but recent evidence suggests this trend may be reversing

Relationship between family income and GCSE attainment

Sources: Blanden, Gregg and Machin (2005), Intergenerational Mobility in Europe and North America, Sutton Trust, LSEGregg and Macmillan (2008) Intergenerational Mobility and Education in the Next Generation, mimeo

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

bi r th c ohor ts

1 st

adar

d d

evia

tio

n c

han

ge

inco

me

wrt

to

GC

SE

sco

res

5

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Material well-being

Housing andenvironment

Educationalwell-being

Health andsafety

Riskybehaviours

Quality ofschool life

ran

k

…and there are concerns about children’s overall well-being…

Comparative policy-focused child well-being in 30 OECD countries

12th 15th 22nd 20th 28th

4th

No. of countries in each ranking

Source: OECD (2009) Doing Better for Children

6

Progress is being made in a number of areas…

Attainment on most measures continues to rise……and fewer schools are missing floor targets

The recession is helping to push up participation in education and training

Attainment at age 19 is improving, whilst at the same time the FSM gap is slightly narrowing

Fewer looked after children are moved frequently, and more are in stable placements… …and more care-leavers are having positive outcomes – both in terms of

accommodation and employment, education or training

Breastfeeding is on a general upward trend

Infant mortality continues to fall and the rate of hospital admissions has fallen from its 2006-07 peak

Substance misuse and abuse amongst young people is on a general downward trend

The number of 1st time entrants to the criminal justice system has turned a corner……and rates of reoffending are down

Enjoy and

Achieve

Achieve Economic Well-being

Stay Safe / Economic Well-being

Be Healthy

Be Healthy / Stay Safe

Make a positive

contribution


Be Healthy

7

…but there are significant challenges in other areas:

Attainment gaps by FSM and SEN continue to persist, though there are signs of progress

Numbers of young people NEET are rising

…and whilst we’re making improvements in the attainment of looked after children, the 2011 targets will be challenging

We are unlikely to meet our 2010 Child Poverty target

Reductions in conception rates of teenage girls since 1998have only been gradual

Enjoy and achieve


Enjoy and achieve


Be Healthy

8

Outline

Introduction: Scene-setting

A. The interdependence and determinants of outcomes of childhood

B. The role of Schools and Pre-schools

C. Inter- and Intra-generational associations

9

The ‘outcomes’ of childhood are not mutually exclusive goods. The latest academic research has enabled us to understand these links better

Individual

Family

Institutional

Social

Early outcomes

Adult outcomes

Intergenerational impacts

Enjoy and Achieve

Make a positive

contributionBe healthy

Achieve economic well-being

Stay Safe

ECM Outcomes Later outcomesDeterminants of

outcomes

?

?

??

? ?

?

?

??

?

?

??

??

10

A number of ECM outcomes are associated with achievement, though prior attainment still dominates

10

Achieve

Make a positive

contribution

Be healthy

Self-rated health and extracurricular activities are positively and significantly associated with academic achievement.

There is a very strong, significant – and causal – negative relationship between previous unauthorised absence levels and academic achievement.

Enjoy and achieve

(attendance)

Stay Safe(bullying)

Determinants of achievement at age 16

Source: Vignoles and Meschi, Forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”.


-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Key Stage 2

Truancy

Age 14 SchoolEnjoyment

Bullied

Extra-curricularactivities

Health

effect size (% of standard deviation)

11

Happy children tend to be more successful, enjoy school and participate more

11

AchieveEnjoy

Stay Safe(bullying)

Pupils with high life satisfaction report significantly more positive school experiences, a greater frequency of extracurricular activities

participation and higher academic achievement…

…in contrast, being a victim of bullying is significantly related to worse levels of well-

being, behaviour and academic achievement, though the reverse is not true

Make a positive

contribution

Source: Gilman and Huebner, 2006, “Characteristics of adolescents who report very high life satisfaction”Gutman and Feinstein, 2008, “Children’s Well-Being in Primary School: Pupil and School Effects”

12

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

Key Stage 2

Truancy

Age 14 SchoolEnjoyment

Bullied

Extra-curricularactivities

Health

% standard deviation effect

Children’s health is a key determinant of school enjoyment…

12

Enjoy

Stay Safe(bullying)

Be healthy

Bullied children at 14 are significantly less likely to enjoy school at 16 while the opposite is seen to be true for pupils with higher self-rated health.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, truanting behaviour is negatively associated with school enjoyment, though causality is likely to run in both directions

Enjoy and achieve

(attendance)

Determinants of school enjoyment at age 16

Source: Vignoles and Meschi, forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”.

13

…and is strongly associated with the likelihood of being bullied, though the direction of causation is yet to be established…

13

Stay Safe(bullying)

Be healthy

Pupils experiencing bullying at 14 are more likely to experience a greater degree of bullying at 16.

Pupils reporting health problems at 14 are significantly more likely to report being bullied at 16...

…but academic achievement (Key Stage 2) and attitude toward school (age 14) appear to be not associated with being bullied at 16.

Source: Vignoles and Meschi, forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”.

14

…and ceasing to enjoy school is associated with a range ofnegative outcomes

Children that enjoy school perform better at KS4, even when accounting for prior attainment and are significantly less likely to engage in risky and anti-social behaviour

children who are bullied perform worse than children who are not bullied and are more likely to experience behavioural problems…

…but are no more likely to truant…

Impact of school enjoyment on outcomes

Source: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from LSYPE

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Key Stage 4 Smokefrequently

Drinkfrequently

TriedCannabis

Anti-socialbehaviour

Truancy

Find School worthwhile (Age 14) Stop liking school (Age 14 - 16)

Make a positive

contribution

AchieveEnjoy

Stay Safe(bullying)

15

The relative importance of individual, family, and social factors in determining child outcomes

Individual

Family

Institutional

Social

Early outcomes

Adult outcomes

Intergenerational impacts

Enjoy and Achieve

Make a positive

contributionBe healthy


Stay Safe

ECM Outcomes Later outcomesDeterminants of

outcomes

Source: Adapted from Crawford et al (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England DCSF RR 102

16

Family income is associated with a wide range of cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes...

Family

Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193

The steeper the curve, the stronger the relationship between income and the

outcome in questionSignificant Income gradients are observed in mid-childhood outcomes

These income gradients appear to be largest for cognitive outcomes…

….and smallest for obesity, self esteem and behaviour

17

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

poorest 2 3 4 richest

quintiles of socio-economic position

per

cen

t

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%



per

cen

t

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



…and well as for a number of “behaviours”, though not always in the expected direction

17

Frequent smoker, age 14Participates in positive activities

Frequent drinker, age 14Anti-social behaviour

Source: Crawford et al (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England DCSF RR 102

Family

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



per

cen

t

1818

No. These gradients can’t be considered causal.

Much – but not all – of the observed income gradients in childhood outcomes are transmitted via parental

characteristics and the home environment – which is partly a result of their parents’ socio-economic background.

FamilyDoes this mean income is all that matters?

However children living in poverty experience restricted access to many factors which might otherwise provide ‘protection’ against the

negative impact of low-income, including: friendships; time with family; good relationships with teachers; ability to concentrate on school work; health; stability of neighbourhood and school; and

membership of social networks.

19

Family income does seem to have a direct causal impact on childhood outcomes, but the effects are fairly modest…

• UK evidence suggest that a one-third reduction in family income increases the propensity to achieve no A-C GCSEs by between 1 and 3 percentage points…

• Canadian evidence indicates that a $1000 increase in child benefits causes approximately 7% of a standard deviation increases in Maths and PPVT scores… – …and 3% and 5% of a standard deviation reductions in childhood

hyperactivity and physical aggression respectively.

• …and American research has shown a $1000 increase in family income raises Maths and Reading scores by 6% of a standard deviation.

Source: Stabile and Milligan, 2008 “Do child benefits affect the well-being of children? Evidence from Canadian child benefit expansions”, Gregg and Blanden, 2004 “Family Income and Educational Attainment: A Review of Approaches and Evidence for Britain”, Dahl and Lochner, 2008 “The impact of Family Income on child achievement”

20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

FamilyStructure and

lifecycle

Parental labourmarket status

ParentalEducation

LocalNeighbourhood

% e

xpla

inin

g t

he

inco

me

gra

die

nt

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Family Structureand lifecycle


ParentalEducation

LocalNeighbourhood

% e

xpla

inin

g t

he

inco

me

gra

die

nt

Total explained by socio-economic charateristics

Residual income effect

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

KS1 scores IQ Self Esteem Locus

% o

f th

e i

nc

om

e g

rad

ien

t

Parental education explains a good deal of the association between income and outcomes…

Family

KS1 further decompositionLocus of control further

decomposition

% of income gradient explained by socio-economic characteristics


21

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



ParentalEducation

LocalNeighbourhood

% e

xpla

inin

g t

he

inco

me

gra

die

nt

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%



ParentalEducation

LocalNeighbourhood

% e

xp

lain

ing

th

e in

co

me

gra

die

nt

Total explained by socio-economic charateristics

Residual income effect

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fat mass Behaviour

% o

f th

e i

nc

om

e g

rad

ien

t

…and parental education also accounts for three-quarters of the association between income and fat mass…

Family

% of income gradient explained by socio-economic characteristics

Fat mass further decomposition

Behaviour further decomposition


22

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

IQ Key Stage 1 Locus ofcontrol

Self-esteem Behaviour Fat mass

Differences in the environments and behaviours of children from low and high income households predict a substantial proportion of the income gradients…

Mothers’ psychological functioning and access to social networks are particularly important for behavioural problems.

Health-related behaviours of low income parents are as important for cognitive outcomes and child mental and physical health.

If smoking rates among low income mothers were to fall to the rates of their higher income counterparts, the income gradients for fat mass and child behaviour would fall by one fifth

Percentage of the income gradient explained by differences in environments and behaviours of low

and high income households

Family

Parental characteristics account for one third of the cognitive income gradients, but over 50% of the shallower mental and physical

health outcome gradients


23

…but there also may be adverse consequences of higher-income lifestyles…

23

Maternal employment

Physical Activity

Long hours of maternal employment in pre-school period are associated with lower cognitive, non-cognitive and behavioural outcomes in children

Learning-focused activities and behaviours, car ownership and the temperature of the home in the pre- school period are all associated with greater fat mass in children at age 9

Family


24

…and we are only now starting to understand what behaviours and characteristics to be important in explaining parenting style.

Quality of interaction at

age 1

Educational communication

at age 1

Quality of interaction at

age 5**

Educational communication

at age 5**

x xBreastfeeding

x x xSocial Networks

x xMaternal Education

x Maternal Mental Health

Source: Adapted from Gutman et al (2009) Nurturing Parenting Capability: the early years

Beh

avio

urs

‘Cha

ract

eris

tics’

Predictors of parenting quality* at age 1 and 5

**Includes control for age 1 measure so the age 5 effects are additional effects

* Measure using the Thorpe Interaction Measure which involves a mother and child sharing a picture book at ages 1 and 5

x x xMarital Status

x x x Number of siblings

Family

25

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Key Stage 4 Smokefrequently

Drinkfrequently

Tried Cannabis Anti-socialbehaviour

Belief in ow n ability (scale) (Age 14) Lost belief in ow n ability (Age 14 - 16)

Individual child attitudes are critical. Levels of self-belief are related to attainment, whereas changes matter for engagement in risky behaviours.

25

Individual

There strong associations between children’s beliefs regarding their own ability and their academic attainment….

…but losing self-belief is also associated with increased likelihood in engagement in risky behaviours.

There are also strong associations between whether a child believes they have control over their own economic destiny and their academic attainment…

Impact of child self-belief on outcomes


26

…and children with greater educational aspiration tend to perform better in school, and have fewer behavioural issues.

Impact of higher education aspirations on outcomes

Individual


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Key Stage 4 Smoke frequently Anti-social behaviour Truancy

Likely to apply to University (Age 14) Stopped thinking of applying to Uni (Age 14 - 16)

27

So-called “peer effects” have a small, albeit significant impact on attainment…

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Level 1-2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5+

Peer-group Quartile 1



Peer-group Quartile 4 pe

rcen

tile

of th

e ag

e-1

4 te

st s

core

re

lativ

e to

the

base

line

pupi

ls

Peer effect, strongest for medium & high attainers

Pupil’s prior attainmentTeacher assessment of age-11 ability

Peer groups could account for around 0.6% of the variance in pupils’ progress between the ages of 11 and 14. General differences between schools explain about 13% of the variance

Peer effects are dwarfed by the impact of pupils’ own prior attainment

Low ability pupils do not appear to benefit as much from mixing with high ability peers as intermediate and high ability pupils do

Peer group FSM status does not have a direct impact after controlling for attainment effects

Impact of peer group quality on attainment

Gibbons, S., and Telhaj, S. (2006) “Peer Effects and Pupil Attainment: Evidence from Secondary School Transition” CEE Discussion Paper 63

Social

28

…but neighbourhood characteristics in and of themselves appear to have little influence on outcomes, except NEET…

28

Social

Deprived individuals living in deprived areas are more likely to be NEET at age 17 than deprived individuals living innon-deprived areas.

However same study finds no evidence that neighbourhood deprivation consistently affects Key Stage 4 scores or any behavioural outcomes at age 16…

…though the literature is more mixed about the impact of neighbourhoods on behaviour outcomes

Impact of multiple deprivation on chances of being NEET (relative to 20% most deprived

neighbourhoods)


-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

2nd IMD quintile 3rd IMD quintile 4th IMD quintile Top IMD quintile

29

Policy Discussion: Section A

(i) There appear to be complementarities between ECM outcomes;

• Exploit interdependencies to improve and broaden the effect of policy.

• Proactive targeting of pupils at risk of future cognitive and non-cognitive difficulties.

• Supportive of the “Personalised Learning” approach.

30

(ii) The determinants of outcomes: Potential avenues to improve child outcomes;

Parents:

• Increasing educational capital of parents.

• Improving parental psychological health and health-related behaviours.

• Creating a better home and wider local environment for children.

31

Individual:

• Increasing the aspirations and self-belief of children

Income:

• Ensuring parents are aware of the potential adverse effects of aspects of high income life-styles.

• Continuation of the use of income transfers and benefits to disadvantaged families.

32

Outline





33

24

24.5

25

25.5

26

26.5

27

27.5

28

28.5

CommunitySchool

VoluntaryAidedSchool

VoluntaryControlled

School

FoundationSchool

Academy K

S2

AP

S280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

Ave

rag

e ca

pp

ed G

CS

E a

nd

eq

uiv

alen

ts p

oin

t sc

ore

p

er e

nd

of

KS

4 p

up

il

KS2 APS of Y7 intake 2003/4 Capped APS KS4 2007/08

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Key Stage 2 English Key Stage 2 Maths Key Stage 4

Differences between schools account for between a tenth anda fifth of variation in academic attainment…

33

Institutional

Percentage of between-school variation in test scores

Around a tenth to a fifth of the variation in Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4 is attributable to school differences.

Voluntary-Aided schools have the best GCSE results, but they also have a

higher quality intake

Sources: Vignoles and Meschi, forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”.Guttman and Feinstein (2008) “Children’s Well-being in Primary School: Pupil and School Effects”; DCSF “(2008) GCSE and Equivalent Results in England, 2007/8 and DCSF (2008) The Composition of Schools in England

Key Stage 2 and 4 attainment by school type

LAs with schools who have more ‘selective’ admissions

systems have more between-school variation

34

…but good teachers do seem to matter...

Being taught by a high-quality (75th percentile) rather than low-quality (25th percentile) teacher adds 0.425 of a GCSE point per subject (where 1 point= 1 grade).

Rivkin et al (2005) find the gap in GCSE points between a poor and non-poor student is 6.08 GCSE points.

If the poor student had good teachers for all 8 subjects and the non-poor student had poor (25th percentile teachers) for all 8, this would make up 3.4 points (56% of the difference).

Impact of teacher quality on GCSE attainment

Source: Burgess et al (2009) Do teachers matter? Measuring the variation in teacher effectiveness in England

Institutional

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Difference betw een 25th and75th percentile

Difference betw een 5th and 95thpercentile

GC

SE

po

ints

per

su

bje

ct

35

…as do pupil-teacher relations…

Impact of pupil-teacher relations on age 16 outcomes

Sources: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from LSYPE Guttman and Feinstein (2008) “Children’s Well-being in Primary School: Pupil and School Effects”

Institutional

Good teacher-child relations are negatively associated with engagement in a wide range of risky behaviours…

Children attending schools with a high level of parental involvement experience 5% and 4% advantages in Key Stage 2 Maths and English respectively…

…while conversely, schools with a high level of parent-teacher disputes experience 5% lower Key Stage 2 scores on average.

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

KS4 value added Frequent smoker Frequent drinker Ever triedcannabis

Played truant inthe last year

36

There also is evidence that more resources at the margincan improve outcomes, especially for disadvantaged groups…

Key Stage 2

Key Stage 3

Key Stage 4

Other key issues

An increase of £1,000 in average expenditure per pupil leads to an implies an average improvement in attainment corresponding to 4.3%

of a level in English, 3.5% in maths and 1.9% in science (OLS)

£100 more on per pupil expenditure increases Maths and Science attainment at Key Stage 3 on average by 4% of a level (IV)

£100 per annum over 5 years of additional expenditure perpupil would be associated with an improvement of about 0.3 in the

capped GCSE points score. (IV)

Spending the same amount on reducing the pupil-teacher ratio has a greater effect

Effects are of greater magnitude for pupils from more disadvantaged backgrounds, especially those with high prior attainment.

Levacic et al (2005) Estimating the Relationship Between School Resources and Pupil Attainment at Key Stage 3; Levacic et al (2006) Estimating the Relationship between School Resources and Pupil Attainment at GCSE; Holmand et al (2008) Impact of School Resources on Attainment at Key Stage 2

Institutional

37

Social class gaps open early, and continue to widen…

Source: Feinstein (2003). “Inequality in the Early Cognitive Development of British Children in the 1970 Cohort,” Economica, p73-97.

Blanden and Machin (2007) Recent Changes in Intergenerational Mobility

020406080

100

22 42 62 82 102 122Age (months)

Att

ain

men

t p

erce

nti

le

0

20

40

60

80

100

22 42 62 82 102 122Age (months)

Att

ain

men

t p

erce

nti

le

The famous “Feinstein Chart” of the 1970 cohort

demonstrates that social class gaps open early, and

continue to widen…

Attainment (percentile rank) by SES and early ability

Attainment (percentile rank) by income and early ability

Hses, Hab’ty

Lses, Hab’tyHses, Lab’ty

Lses, Lab’ty

Hinc, Hab’ty

Hinc, Lab’tyLinc, Hab’ty

Linc, Lab’ty

…but this doesn’t appear to be a historical anomaly – the Millennium Cohort Study is begging to reveal a similar

trend…

38

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Pre-reading Early Number Concepts Language

< 1 yr pre-school 1 - 2 yrs pre-school

2 - 3 yrs pre-school > 3 yrs pre-school

Pre-School has significant effect on a child’s early cognitive outcomes…

…and these effect persist into early primary school

Children who spend more time in pre-school, experience significantly higher cognitive

attainments…

Impact of pre school on cognitive ability (pre-school) – compared to home children

Impact of pre-school on primary school reading – compared to home children

EPPE: Tech Paper 8a “Measuring the Impact of Pre-School on Children’s Cognitive Progress over the Pre-School Period”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Entry to School Year 1 Year 2

% o

f st

and

ard

dev

iati

on

< 1 yr pre-school 1 - 2 yrs pre-school

2 - 3 yrs pre-school > 3 yrs pre-school

39

…and social and behavioural development.

39

Results show that children who have spent more time in

pre-school have significantly better social behavioural development.

Impact of pre school on non-cognitive outcomes (pre school) – compared to

home children

A small time in preschool appears to be best for co-

operation and conformity…

…but only those who have spent a long time in pre-

school are significantly more anti-social / worried

EPPE: Tech Paper 8b “Measuring the Impact of Pre-School on Children’s Social/Behavioural Development over the Pre-School Period”

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Independence andconcentration

Cooperation andconformaty

Peer sociability Anti-social / Worried

< 1 yr pre-school 1 - 2 yrs pre-school 2 - 3 yrs pre-school > 3 yrs pre-school

40

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Low Quality Medium Quality High Quality

effe

ct s

ize

English Maths

The positive effect of pre-school persists well into childhood

…and good quality pre-school can help to promote young people’s self-regulation

There is a clear pre-school quality gradient in Key Stage 2 Maths and

English.

Effect of pre-school quality on age 11 English and maths

Impact of pre-school on self regulation and pro-social behaviour age 11

EPPE (3-11): Final Report from the Primary Phase: Pre-school, School and Family Influences on Children’s Development During Key Stage 2 (Age 7-11)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Self-regulation Pro-social behaviour

effe

ct s

ize

Low quality Medium quality High quality

41

Policy Discussion: Section B

(i) The role of Schools

• Improving the quality of teachers and ensuring good teacher-child/parent relations

• Ensuring a good child-school “fit” and further support for the “Personalised Learning” program.

42

(ii) The role of pre-schools:

• Encouraging attendance and duration in pre-schools.

• Improving the quality of pre-schools.

43

Outline





44

Age 11 social and cognitive skills matter for employment and adult wages

44

Impact of social and cognitive skills at age 11

on probability of employment

Impact of social and cognitive skills at age 11

on (log) wages

Pedro Carneiro , Claire Crawford , Alissa Goodman, 2007: The Impact of Early Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills on Later Outcomes

45

Age 11 well-being and cognitive skills also associated with fewer mental, physical and behavioural problems in adulthood…

45

Impact of age 11 social and cognitive skills on non-cognitive outcomes

Source: Carneiro, P. et al (2007) The Impact of Early Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills on Later Outcomes CEE Discussion Paper 92

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Crime Poor Health Depression Mental healthproblems

effe

ct s

ize

Well-being (Age 11) Cognitive Skills (Age 11)

46

…so it is not surprising that intergenerational income mobility has stayed stubbornly high (by international standards) over recent years…

1970

=0.291

1958

=0.205

Decomposing the change in the relationship between family income and sons’ income

1958-1970

• 3/4 of the rise in the intergenerational co-efficient can be explained, mainly by strengthening relationships between family income and:

• Access to HE;

• Attainment at 16;

• Unemployment

• Parental income had more impact on Non-cognitive skills in the 1970 cohort, but the effect of non-cognitive skills on income mainly operated through raising attainment.

Source: Blanden, Gregg and MacMillan (2006) “Explaining Intergenerational Income Persistence: Non-cognitive Skills, Ability and Education” CMPO Working Paper 06/146

where

iparentsi

sonsi YY lnln

-0.02 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1

Health

Non-Cogntive 10/11

Cognitive tests 10/11

Age 16 Exams

Post 16 Education

Post 18 Education

Labour Market

Unexplained

Total

Change in intergerational persistance 1958-1970

47

…and recent evidence shows that intergenerational associations are evident for the whole range of ECM outcomes…

47

Stay safe

Bullying and discrimination

Safe from crime and ASB

Have security, stability and cared for

Intergenerational conditional correlations between parent and child outcomes

Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

Bullied

Mother scared ofgoing out, child

scared

Mother's interest inchild age 10

Father's interest inchild age 10

Broken home

conditional correlation

48

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

Birth Weight

Measles

Mumps

Chicken Pox

MMR Immunisation

Internalising behaviour age 5

Externalising behaviour age 5



Father smoke age 16

Mother smoke age 16

Parent youth drinking (16) and child drinking(age13-16)

Parent adult drinking (30) and child drinking(age13-16)


There are strong intergenerational associations between a number of health outcomes, for example birthweight

48

Be healthy

Physically Healthy

Mentally / Emotionally Healthy

Healthy Lifestyles



49

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

Vocabulary age 5

Spelling age 10

Maths age 10

Child not liked by otherchildren


The link between early cognitive ability of parents and children is not as strong as later cognitive ability

49

Enjoy and

achieve

Ready for school

Achieve stretching national educational standards in

primary school

Achieve personal social development and enjoy

recreation



50

…and there is generally less of a link between “making a positive contribution” indicators…

50

Make a positive

contribution

Engage in decision making and support community and

environment

Develop positive relationships and choose not

to bully and discriminate



0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18

Social activity index

Bullies age 10

Bullies age 16

Parent discriminatoryview s and bullying

condtional correlation

51

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

Father left school early,child w ants to leave early

Mother left school early,child w ants to leave early

Aspirations for child toleave at compulsory age

Parent expectations ofchild going on to university

Number of rooms inhousehold

Parent ow ns house


…and the link between educational and economic well-being is particularly strong

51


Engage in further education

Live in decent homes and sustainable communities



…and similarly, children living in social housing are much more likely to live in social housing as adults…

52

Children born in 1970 living in social housing are over 3 times more likely to live in social housing in adulthood...

…and social housing is associated with almost every indicator of disadvantage

measurable.


53

Policy Discussion: Section C

Inter-generational persistence and intra-generational associations:

• Closing the gap in non-cognitive skills between rich and poor children.

• Continued action to raise attainment of poor children at 16 and beyond.

• Ensuring poor children do not experience long-term unemployment early in their careers.

The independence and determinants of outcomes: The relevance for Policy Bilal Nasim, Researcher CMPO 9 th February 2010 DCSF 2010 Research Conference.

Documents

family income

highest income quartile

lowest income quartile

level of inequality

slevels of inequality

average income ifs

intergenerational mobility

poor productivity