Hydrometeorological Prediction Center The Inaugural The Inaugural Hydrometeorological Testbed Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC HPC Winter Weather Experiment Winter Weather Experiment 1 David Novak Faye Barthold, Mike Bodner, Ed Danaher, Dan Petersen, Rich Bann, Mike Musher, Chris Hedge and Many participants and contributors
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The Inaugural Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC Winter Weather Experiment
The Inaugural Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC Winter Weather Experiment. David Novak Faye Barthold, Mike Bodner, Ed Danaher, Dan Petersen, Rich Bann, Mike Musher, Chris Hedge and Many participants and contributors. 1. Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC. Description. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
The Inaugural Hydrometeorological The Inaugural Hydrometeorological Testbed Testbed – HPC HPC
Pros: •Improved orographic precipitation, lake effect
•Visualizing temporal evolutions
•Providing unique fields (simulated reflectivity)
•Explicit prediction of mesoscale bands
Cons:•Overall amounts not superior to operational
•Little additional confidence in band location
BandBandBand
Neutral
Useful
Not Useful
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Feb 2-4, 2011 SnowstormFeb 2-4, 2011 Snowstorm
*
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Simulated Reflectivity experimental 4 km NMMB model (to become operational this fall)
03Z Tuesday Feb 01 to 12Z Wednesday Feb 02
Low Tracks
Snowfall
Obs
NAM
Exp NAM
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center9
Confidence: “above average confidence that an area near Chicago will receive up to 20" of snow.”
Storm track: “Fairly confident of storm track, though high resolution models seem to deepen low center more and pull it further north and west into the cold air.”
Snow Probs: >12": 80%>20": 20%
HMT-HPC Winter Weather ExperimentHMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment•Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather
uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts?
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center10
Forecast team’s confidence was qualitatively correlated to snowfall errors
When forecast teams rated their snow forecast confidence as low (high), there were generally larger (smaller) errors
HMT-HPC Winter Weather ExperimentHMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment•Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather
uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts?
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Operational ImpactsOperational ImpactsNWPNWP
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Diagnosed “strange band” in HRW-NMM
Fixed before implementation
Identified NAM snow depth limitations
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center12
•Exposed forecasters to cutting-edge tools and techniques
•Increased confidence in using NMMB (upgraded NAM) for winter weather forecasting.
•Revealed substantial limitations of ice accumulation analysis used for verification. Exploring alternatives.
•Revising guidelines to include confidence information in HPC Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion.
Assess, quantify, and communicate uncertainty• Explore how humans can add value to probabilistic products• Evaluate experimental ensemble systems from EMC, HMT and AFWA• Evaluation of ensemble clusters and QPF bias-correction
Evaluate societal impacts• Explore categorizing impacts of forecasts (low, moderate, high, historic)• Calculate impact by using joint probabilities
Expand participation• Goal of 3 forecasters per region, NCEP, NSSL, ESRL involvement