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© OECD/IEA 2016
The importance of energy balances to estimate greenhouse gas emissions
Aidan Kennedy Senior Energy Statistician IEA Energy Data Centre
Mainstreaming Energy Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Targets and Indicators into Statistical Programmes in Select African Countries Addis Ababa, June 2016
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Source: UNFCCC - based on Annex I only countries data for 2012
What sectors drive GHG emissions?
Energy 82%
Agriculture 8%
Waste 3%
CH4 6%
N2O 1%
CO2 93%
Industrial
processes 7%
Generally, energy-related CO2 dominate GHG emissions
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Even if the energy sector weight varies across countries….
Always need to consider country circumstances
Source: IEA / EDGAR estimates, 2015
Share of energy in total GHG emissions
0 20 40 60 80 100
World
Africa
Zambia
Togo
South Africa
Nigeria
Morocco
Kenya
Ghana
Botswana
Benin
%
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… The emissions from energy are predominantly CO2
Source: IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2015
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
MtC
O2
CO2 emissions from Fuel Combustion
Benin
Botswana
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Senegal
Togo
Zambia
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Why are energy balances relevant to estimate CO2 emissions?
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Estimating CO2 emissions using IPCC methodologies: carbon conservation in combustion
MODULE ENERGY
CATEGORY FUEL COMBUSTION ACTIVITIES
CATEGORY CODE 1A (FOR EACH SOURCE CATEGORY)
SHEET CO2, CH4 AND N2O FROM FUEL COMBUSTION BY SOURCE CATEGORY
– TIER 1
Energy consumption CO2
A B C D E
Consumption
(Mass, Volume
or Energy unit)
Conversion
Factor
(TJ/unit)
Consumption
(TJ)
CO2 Emission
Factor
(Kg CO2/TJ)
CO2
emissions
(Gg CO2)
C=(AxB) E=(CxD)
Crude Oil
Natural Gas Liquids
Gasoline
Jet Kerosene
Other Kerosene
Gas/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
…
Energy consumption
Calorific values
CO2 emission factors
CO2 Emissions
x x =
Note: all renewables sources - including biofuels- are not emitting (IPCC)
Source: 2006 IPCC Guidelines
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Supply
Transformation
Final consumption
CO2 emissions estimates rely on energy balances and underlying energy statistics quality
The importance of accurate energy data and calorific values by product and by sector (three blocks)
Energy sources
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What is an energy balance?
Source: IEA, World Energy Balances, 2015
The overall description of energy supply and use in a country
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Examples of key emissions indicators derived from energy balances
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1: Energy supply
Basis for “reference approach” emissions (“top-down”) and quick indicator of overall trends (few data needed)
Sources: IEA World Energy Balances, 2015 IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2015
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
MtC
O2
CO2 Reference Approach - Ethiopia
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Carbon intensity of the energy supply
CO2/TPES: How much CO2 for a given unit of energy supply?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
Mto
e
Total primary energy supply - Nigeria
Coal
Hydro
Natural Gas
Oil
Biofuels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
Mto
e
CO2 emissions - Nigeria
Coal
Natural gas
Oil
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
19
90
= 1
00
Carbon intensity (CO2/TPES)
CO₂ Fuel Combustion Total primary energy supply CO₂/ TPES
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Carbon intensity varies depending on the energy mix
Need accurate supply data for all fuels – including solid biofuels!
Total CO2/TPES Weighted average across supply sources
Source: IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2015
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Zambia
Togo
Tanzania
South Africa
Senegal
Nigeria
Namibia
Kenya
Ghana
Gabon
Ethiopia
tCO₂ per TJ
CO₂ / TPES
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2: Transformation sector
Need accurate input/output data by product type
(e.g. electricity generation)
Input (e.g. coal)
Output (electricity)
Transforming energy sources
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Carbon intensity of electricity (CO2/kWh)
Source: IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2015
United Republic of Tanzania
CO2/kWh: how much CO2 per unit of total electricity generated? Total CO2 emissions / total electricity output (including output from non emitting sources)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 2000 2013
TW
h
Electricity generation by fuel
Coal Oil Gas Hydro Other
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
gCO
2/kW
h
CO2 / kWh of electricity
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“carbon intensity of electricity” depends on the electricity mix and on the efficiency of generation
Ethiopia, Zambia
Angola
Togo
World, Africa, Senegal
Need accurate data on amounts of combusted fuels and of electricity generated, by source
More fossil electricity
Less efficient generation
Kenya
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3: Final consumption
Basis for “Sectoral approach” (official) emissions estimates (“bottom-up”) – different levels of detail possible
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“Demand” indicators: shares by sector
What sectors (and end uses) drive national emissions? The importance of demand side data
37%
18%
39%
5%
2%
Electricity Generation
Industry
Transport
Residential
Other
1%
58%
28%
1% 12%
Electricity Generation
Industry
Transport
Residential
Other
Senegal Zambia
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A set of indicators can be computed at sectoral and sub-sectoral level
Source: IEA, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2015
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
Benin Congo Côted'Ivoire
Ethiopia Gabon Kenya Mauritius Senegal Togo
t C
O2
/ ca
pit
aResidential CO2 emissions per capita
1990 and 2013
2000
2013
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A data quality assessment example: reconciling supply and demand sides
Generally, indicators are a tool to enhance data quality
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
MtC
O2
CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion -South Africa
Reference Approach (Supply)
Sectoral Approach (Demand)