The importance of agricultural data and informatics for adaptation to climate change

1 • 3/21/11

The Importance of Agricultural Data and Informatics for

Climate Change Adaptation

Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Glenn Hyman, Jacob van

EttenCCAFS

2 • 3/21/11

The Challenge

3 • 3/21/11

The concentration of GHGs is rising

Long-term implications

for the climate and for crop suitability

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Historical impacts on food security

% Yield impact for wheat

Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.

Lobell et al (2011)

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Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Crop suitability is changing

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0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1

Exacerbating the yield gap

From Licker et al, 2010

Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap

7 • 3/21/11

In order to meet global

demands, we will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Food security is at risk

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“Unchecked climate change will result in a

20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full

mitigation scenario.

-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS

9 • 3/21/11

Progressive Adaptation

THE VISION

To adapt farming systems, we need to:

• Close the production gap by effectively using technologies, practices and policies

• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential

• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level

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A heavy reliance on models

• For a 2030 world, difficult to do work without the aid of models

• Starts with the Global Climate Models…

• Through to agricultural impacts models

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And models need data…• On climate• Weather• Crop distribution• Crop productivity• Varietal adaptations• Genetic traits• Social parameters• …and the list goes on….

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And that data should be..• Available (publically)• Documented and organised• Or you’ll have another ClimateGate

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A selection of data and informatics tools being developed in CCAFS

• Agricultural trial data• GxE analysis with an emphasis on the

E• Setting breeding priorities for a

climate changed world• Analogues• Pulling it all together under a

knowledge management umbrella: the AMKN

14 • 3/21/11

>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)

20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites

Effect of +1ºC warming on yield

Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed

More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought

Lobell et al. 2011

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• Over 3,000 trials• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15 international and national institutions

New data

>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrials.org)

16 • 3/21/11

Importance & Potential • Collating input climate and

agricultural data• Design of experiments• Calibration, validation and crop

model runs• Exploration of adaptation options

– Genetic improvement– On-farm management practices

• Test them via modelling• Build “adaptation packages”• Assess technology transfer options

(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

17 • 3/21/11

>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)

20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites

Effect of +1ºC warming on yield

Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed

More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought

Lobell et al. 2011

18 • 3/21/11

GxE: OPV vs hybrid

19 • 3/21/11

GxE: duration

20 • 3/21/11

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Current Climatic Suitability

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Current Climatic Constraints

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Future Suitability

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Benefits of breeding options

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The Analogue Concept

• We heavily rely on models to tell us what the future holds– GCM/RCM projections– Crop models, household models,

farming system models

• Few take into account human adaptive capacity, and social and cultural factors that contribute to decision making

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The Analogue Concept

• Analogues: Use spatial variability in climate as a means of having a real experiment of what the future holds for a site

• Where can I find my future projected conditions, TODAY?

27 • 3/21/11 Karnal (India)

• Rainy season from June to September

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Why we think this an important approach

• Facilitating farmer-to-farmer exchange of knowledge

• Permitting validation of computational models and trialing of new technologies/techniques

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http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues

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Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform

It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.

Why is it useful?

The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge.

What CCAFS output?

31 • 3/21/11

AN EXAMPLE OF USING THE SOME OF THESE APPROACHES TO LINK KNOWLEDGE AND DATA

32 • 3/21/11 Starting site: Kaffrine, Senegal

- CCAFS site- 600 mm annual rainfall- Min. Temp. 14.8°C - Max. Temp. 39.1°C

- Main crops:- Millet- Maize- Peanuts- Sorghum- Sesame

-Climate Change threats:

Erratic Rainfall

-Socio-economic constraints:

-High poverty level - Low access to capital - No attractive market

Kaffrine, Senegal (x:-15.54, y:14.106)

33 • 3/21/11 Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine, Senegal

Average Climate Change Trends:- Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm- Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C

34 • 3/21/11 Crop suitability – Kaffrine, Senegal

35 • 3/21/11

- Mean of the dissimilarity index of 24 GCMs between the starting site Kaffrine, Senegal with the entire world

- Climate parameters:-Monthly temperature - Monthly rainfall

- Scenario A1B, 2030

High climate similarity

Where can we find a region with similar climatic conditions to Kaffrine, Senegal in 2030?

Climate similarity

36 • 3/21/11

CCAFS site with minimum value of dissimilarity with the climate of Kaffrine, Senegal = Tougou, Burkina Faso

Best consistency between the 24 GCM’s = Fakara , Niger

The current climate of Fakara is similar to the future projected climate in Kaffrine

Fakara is the most likely analogue of Kaffrine

Zoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites

37 • 3/21/11

- CCAFS site -500 mm annual rainfall- Min. Temp. 15.7°C- Max. Temp. 41.3°C

- Main crops:- Millet- Beans- Leafy vegetables- Maize- Sorghum

- Climate Change threats:

Drought

- Socio-economic constraints:

- Low level of infrastructure - Limited access to market

Fakara, Niger (x:2.687, y:13.517)

Analogue of Kaffrine, Senegal: Fakara, Niger

38 • 3/21/11 Comparison of current conditions

Current conditions Kaffrine, Senegal

Fakara, Niger = Future condition of

Kaffrine

ZoneTransition zone from the

Sahelien towards the Sudan Savannah zone

Within the Sahel

Altitude 15 m 225 mAnnual rainfall average

600 mm 500 mm

Minimum Temperatur

e 14.8 °C 15.7 °C

Maximum Temperatur

e39.1 °C 41.3 °C

Main crops

Millet Maize

PeanutsSorghum

Sesame

Millet Beans

Leafy vegetables Maize

SorghumLength of Growing period

130 days 95 days

Soil type Deep sandy soil Sandy and clay sandy soilSoil FAO

ClassFerric Luvisols Luvic Arenosols

Socio-economic

constraints

High poverty level Low access to capital

No attractive market

Low level of infrastructure Limited access

to market

39 • 3/21/11

Kaffrine, Senegal

Fakara, Niger

Millet Maize

PeanutsSorghum

Sesame

Millet Beans Leafy

vegetables Maize

Sorghum

Comparison of main crops

40 • 3/21/11 Agtrial database - Application

Kontela, Mali is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal

The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali could help us to know the future sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.Sorghum yield data

Sorghum Variety K (kg/ha) N

(kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Lime (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha) Grain yield

(t/ha)CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68 CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55 CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33 CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54 CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08

Yield data available in the Agtrials database:http://www.agtrials.org:85/

41 • 3/21/11

Millet Yield dataVariety name Grain Yield (t/ha)Nyamkombo 0.87Okashana-2 1.09

PMV-2 0.78PMV-3 0.86

SDMV89003 0.88SDMV89007 0.82SDMV90031 1.16SDMV91018 0.91SDMV92033 0.75SDMV92038 0.82SDMV95032 1.03SDMV95033 0.93SDMV95045 1.13SDMV96075 0.89SDMV97007 0.87SDMV97011 0.87TSPM91018 0.69SDMV89005 0.90SDMV92035 0.51SDMV92037 1.01SDMV95009 0.77SDMV95014 0.68SDMV95025 0.73ZPMV92005 0.50ZPMV94001 0.60

Agtrial database - Application

Senegal

Hombolo, Tanzania is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal

Yield data available in the Agtrial database:http://www.agtrials.org:85/The MILLET yield data in Homboro, Tanzania could help us to know the future millet yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.

42 • 3/21/11

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