The Impact of the Hajj The Impact of the Hajj Religion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global Religion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global Gathering Gathering David Clingingsmith, Case David Clingingsmith, Case Western Western Asim Ijaz Khwaja, KSG Asim Ijaz Khwaja, KSG Michael Kremer, Harvard Michael Kremer, Harvard
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The Impact of the HajjThe Impact of the Hajj Religion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global GatheringReligion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global Gathering
David Clingingsmith, Case WesternDavid Clingingsmith, Case WesternAsim Ijaz Khwaja, KSGAsim Ijaz Khwaja, KSGMichael Kremer, HarvardMichael Kremer, Harvard
Malcolm X’s Account of Hajj
“Never have I witnessed such sincere hospitality and overwhelming spirit of true brotherhood as is practiced by people of all colors and races here in this ancient Holy Land … There were tens of thousands of pilgrims, from all over the world. They were of all colors, from blue-eyed blondes to black-skinned Africans. But we were all participating in the same ritual, displaying a spirit of unity and brotherhood that my experiences in America had led me to believe never could exist between the white and non-white…On this pilgrimage, what I have seen, and experienced, has forced me to rearrange much of my thought-patterns previously held, and to toss aside some of my previous conclusions … I have eaten from the same plate, drunk from the same glass, and slept on the same rug - while praying to the same God - with fellow Muslims, whose eyes were the bluest of blue, whose hair was the blondest of blond, and whose skin was the whitest of white. (The Autobiography of Malcolm X, Alex Haley)
Views of Impact of Hajj
Pilgrim accounts stress feelings of unity Sparked concern of outsiders
British colonial authorities Recent MI5 monitoring of British pilgrims after it
emerged that two 7/7 bombers had recently undertaken the Hajj
Concerns that Saudi version of Islam promoted at expense of local religious traditions (Naipaul, 1981)
Isolating the Impact of the Hajj
Two views could be consistent In-group vs. out-group?
Impact on other identities?
Identifying causal impact is difficult Selection problem – those who choose to perform Hajj differ
from those who do not Iannacone (1992): costly religious practices screen for
commitment Decision to undertake Hajj may be correlated with other changes
We address by comparing successful and unsuccessful applicants to Pakistan’s Hajj visa allocation lottery
Outline Background on Hajj
Statistical approach, visa application process, survey, sample
Results Religion Tolerance Gender Health and well-being Socio-political participation Channels – group exposure
Conclusion Micro mechanisms? Macro impact?
Background on Hajj
Formal rituals last 5 days, but most stay 40 days One of five pillars of Islam; obligatory if good health,
sufficient means Focus on religious practice (not knowledge) Physically taxing (80 km distance, infectious disease) Traditionally seen as conferring social prestige Social interaction during Hajj
Emphasis on equity/unity: standardized rituals, similar dress, head shaving, title at completion may promote common identity
Participants observe others from all over the world, but in-depth interaction unlikely
Men pray alongside women, are exposed to societies with different gender norms
Hajj Visa Allocation Logistical limits on Hajj participation
Saudis allocate Pakistan 150,000 Hajj visas
Pakistan allocates 66,500 visas to: Private travel operators, who charge US $2,000 - $5,000 Special quotas for military, gov’t employees, two-time lottery losers
Remaining 83,500 visas for subsidized government scheme US$2,000 to US$2,400 per person (3 x GDP/capita) 138,000 applicants Lottery
We focus on Sunni (90%) lottery applicants from 9 districts in Punjab province
Selection Process Application and deposit in bank branch
Formation of groups (1-20); lottery over groups
Mehrem (close male relative) required for Sunni women
Randomization by strata Sect (2) Place of departure (8) Accommodation class (2)
Group size effect
Randomization checks
Lottery Consistent with Random Assignment
Success in LotteryApplicant Characteristic Coef. SEFemale -0.001 (0.004)Application NumberA 0.001 (0.003)Travel Party NumberA 0.005 (0.006)Year of Birth 0.000 (0.000)Married 0.009 (0.008)Middle School -0.001 (0.005)High School 0.000 (0.006)Intercollege and Up 0.002 (0.008)Branch of Application 0.000 (0.000)Provided Phone Number -0.001 (0.011)Constant 1.142 (0.264)Observations 134,948 R-squared 0.02 Joint F-Test of Individual Characteristics (p-value) 0.98
Data and Survey
Surveyed 1605 applicants to January 2006 Hajj from northern districts of Punjab province
Survey took place summer to early fall 2006 Early wave: June to mid-July Late wave: September to mid-October No baseline
Sample to get roughly equal winners/losers; male/female
Lottery Compliance
Hajj Lottery and Actual Hajj Travel
Randomization Status
2006 Hajj StatusSuccessful
Unsuccessful
Went 99% 11%
Did not go 1% 89%
LATE Estimate Estimate:
Ykic = Outcomes of interest
HAJJic is an indicator for whether individual i went on Hajj in 2006.
c is a cell fixed effect. Cells: place of departure X accommodation category X group size.
Instrument for HAJJic with indicator Successi
LATE = average impact on lottery compliers
Captures impact of Hajj provided no direct lottery effect
In our case LATE roughly captures counterfactual impact of Hajj on a person who was unable to go due to losing the lottery
iccick
ick HAJJY
Identification Strategy: Advantages & Limits
Internal validity: randomization helps overcome OVB problem in estimating impact of Hajj on applicants
External validity: other populations Higher SES Shia Other regions/countries Nonapplicants; nonmarginal
External validity: other time scales We look at 5-8 months after Immediate Long-run
External Validity
Overall similar Applicants more likely to be older, married Literacy, high school, and log expenditure similar Excludes tails of distribution: slightly higher literacy but lower
college
Adult Pakistani
Population (restricted >20 year old)
Full Sample Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev.Age 40.16 16.244 54.575 13.240Female 0.499 0.500 0.490 0.500Married 0.703 0.497 0.943 0.232Illiterate 0.482 0.458 0.402 0.490Intercollege and Up 0.201 0.43 0.178 0.383City 0.400 0.490Periurban/large village 0.274 0.460Rural 0.325 0.470Ballot Success 0.533 0.499Monthly Expenditures 8.678 0.641 8.832 0.783
Survey Completion
Full sample: 63% overall completion rate 8% refused 26% could not be located/contacted 2% dead
Completion rate among applicants we could contact: 87%
Possible concern: differential completion rates 67% of successful completed compared to 60% of unsuccessful Successful show slightly lower refusal rates and more likely to be
found Reject null hypothesis that rates are equal, p = 0.01
But no difference along observables
Survey Completion, ctd. Restricted sub-sample:
Balanced on survey completion and reasons for non-completion Difference in ease of survey across regions, quality of survey team Excludes tehsils with more than 25 selected applicants where
completion rate for successful applicants >7% higher than that for unsuccessful applicants
Excludes 9/49 tehsils 81% of overall sample 66% of winners completed compared to 64% of losers. Fail to reject
null that completion rates are equal, p=0.66
Robustness: Redo results with demographic controls, etc. Redo results in restricted subsample
Observables Do Not Predict Lottery Success in Our Samples
Success in Lottery Among
Interviewed
Success in Lottery Among Interviewed,
Restricted Sub-sample
Applicant Characteristic Coef. SE Coef. SEFemale -0.014 (0.021) -0.026 (0.024)Application NumberA -0.009 (0.014) -0.015 (0.016)Travel Party NumberA 0.094 (0.066) 0.037 (0.072)Year of Birth 0.001 (0.001) 0.001 (0.001)Married -0.015 (0.062) 0.006 (0.073)Middle School -0.027 (0.036) -0.012 (0.041)High School -0.047 (0.045) -0.050 (0.051)Intercollege and Up -0.009 (0.051) -0.006 (0.060)Branch of Application 0.000 (0.000) 0.000 (0.000)Provided Phone Number 0.063 (0.060) 0.094 (0.064)Constant -1.863 (2.394) -1.995 (2.725)Observations 1,605 1,295 R-squared 0.06 0.10 Joint F-Test of Individual Characteristics (p-value) 0.68 0.81
Thematic Indices
Average effect size (AES) Also report averages over individual
variables, components
Global Islamic Practice Praying five times daily Performing Tasbih Praying in congregation Praying Tahajjud Namaz Reciting Qu’ran Religious dialogue
Regarded as Religious Do others regard you as religious?
Base Controls
Restricted
Sub-Sample
(1) Regarded as Religious 0.238*** 0.230***0.258*** (0.06) (0.055) (0.061)(2) Global Islamic Practice 0.163*** 0.166***0.171*** (0.030) (0.029) (0.033)
Religion
Localized religious practices Sufi teachers Amulets Chaliswan (40-day ceremony following a death) Maulud Mehfil Prayer cap Widow remarriage views
Base Controls
Restricted
Sub-Sample
(3) Belief in Localized Muslim Practices -0.101***
-0.094*** -0.074**
(0.032) (0.031) (0.035)(4) Participation in Localized Muslim Practices -0.097** -0.097** -0.085* (0.046) (0.045) (0.052)
Religion, ctd.
Positive views of others Countries
Is your view of Saudi people very positive to very negative?
Biggest effect on Indonesia No effect on Europeans
(1) Views of Other Countries 0.150*** 0.147*** 0.151*** (0.04) (0.04) (0.04)(2) Views of Other Groups 0.131*** 0.108** 0.122 ** (0.05) (0.05) (0.06)(3) Harmony 0.128*** 0.117*** 0.126*** (0.04) (0.04) (0.05)
Tolerance
Peaceful Inclination Opposing:
Osama Bin Laden--Hajj doubles opposition (7% to 13%)
Physical punishment: 17% effect
Suicide bombing Supporting:
Importance of peace with India: 14% effect
Political Islam Religion’s role in the state Sig effects on (not) enforcing
religion (not) having religious leaders dispense justice
Views of West Oppose West social values/tech West against interests of Pak. Western/Jewish role in 9/11
Base ControlsRestricted Sub-Sample
(4) Peaceful Inclination 0.111*** 0.121*** 0.128*** (0.03) (0.03) (0.04)(5) Political Islam Index -0.050 -0.044 -0.043 (0.04) (0.03) (0.04)(6) Views of West 0.029 0.039 0.011 (0.04) (0.04) (0.04)
Tolerance, ctd.
Views: relative to men Intellectual Morally Spiritually
Biggest effect (+51%)
Quality of life Relative to Pakistan:
Saudi Arabia (smallest incr.) Indonesia/Malaysia (biggest incr.) West (second biggest incr.)
Crimes against women in Pakistan
Pak. relatively conservative
Base Controls
Restricted Sub-
Sample
(1) Views toward Women0.120*** 0.116*** 0.139***
(0.04) (0.04) (0.04)
(2) Women's Quality of Life0.158*** 0.138*** 0.166***
(0.05) (0.05) (0.06)
Gender
Education for women School for girls
Increase off high base Coeduction
8% incr. both girls/boys Equal schooling girls/boys
(no effect)
Women in workforce and professions Daughters and grand-
daughters Working (up 8%) Professional job (up 7%) Daughter-in-law have job
(up 12%)
Base Controls
Restricted Sub-
Sample(3) Girls' Education 0.092** 0.089** 0.097** (0.04) (0.04) (0.04)(4) Women in Workforce/Professions 0.119*** 0.112*** 0.091** (0.04) (0.04) (0.04)
Gender, ctd.
Islamic rules Unequal inheritance Women seeking
divorce Unequal witnesses
Household Management Number of children Marriage against
Overall Life and Finances No evidence for income effect Also no effect on monthly consumption
Base Controls
Restricted
Sub-Sample
(1) Rescaled K6 Index-0.206***
-0.206*** -0.200***
(0.05) (0.05) (0.05)(2) Positive Feelings -0.109** -0.098** -0.079 (0.05) (0.04) (0.05)(3) Index of Satisfaction with Life and Finances -0.010 0.006 0.011 (0.04) (0.04) (0.04)
Exposure and Group Observation/Interactions on Hajj, ctd.
Hajjis return with more positive views of Indonesians (0.32 SD) and Saudis (0.14 SD).
Smaller Hajj parties (more exposed?): Bigger gains in Islamic gender, global, and (same
sign but not sig) diversity awareness indices Larger increase in positive views of other countries
(signs on other tolerance indices also in same direction)
Some evidence for bigger shift away from local religious
Global Influence? Results on tolerance, gender, suggest Hajjis influenced by pilgrims
from around globe, not just Saudis
Social psychology of group interaction Empathy versus antipathy to others Depends on context: cooperative versus
competitive
Hajj as “glue” that makes for a cooperative environment? Common goal for all, overall unity emphasized More than that? Religion legitimizes/limits change
Conclusions
Micro mechanisms that facilitate strengthening of common identity Removal from usual environment Change in dress; physical appearance Common ritual Change in title Similar mechanisms in other social institutions that build common identity?
Medical education; police training; military basic training; international peace camps – similar effect?
Macro: role of pilgrimage in evolution of belief systems Pilgrimages very common How survive in competition among religions? Club goods models of religion
Practices screen out people who provide lower public goods BUT evolutionary pressures toward productive signals in competitive religious market
World religions: how to adapt to local conditions while retaining coherence--danger of division and schism Hierarchy one solution (not present in Sunni Islam) Hajj (and single text, etc.) may be another – convergence Elimination of non-Islamic influence from the Hajj What is impact on pilgrims from other areas?
END
END
Extra/Old stuff
Iannaccone (1992)
Q: Why do religions often require adherents to perform costly activities (e.g., behavior prohibitions, restrictions on dress, pilgrimages)?
A: Religions are clubs in which people receive positive externalities from committed co-religionists. Costly activities screen for commitment.
Viewing Hajj through lens of Ianaccone model Hajj involves substantial personal sacrifice
Financial (>$2000 in sample) Time (40 days average in sample) Physical and mental strain
Costly activities like Hajj could flourish in competitive marketplace for adherents if useful to the religion E.g., by promoting its survival
Islam is extraordinarily successful as a world religion. Has survived, flourished under competitive pressure.
Is Hajj just about screening, or does it have a treatment effect? If so, what?
Hajjis are exposed to Muslims from many other countries. Hajj may thereby promote a standardization of religious belief
Suppose a group of dynasties indexed by i. Let the religious beliefs and practices of dynasty i in generation t be xi,t.
Suppose that xi,t+1 = αxi,t + (1-α)xt +εi,t+1 , where xt is the average belief/practice of all Muslims and εi,t+1 is an i.i.d. random variable.
The Hajj reduces α.
It is straightforward to show var (xi,t+1 ) = var(xi,t)+2 and that in the steady state
This implies that the Hajj reduces variance in belief.
x2
2
1 2
Application and Selection Process
1. Applications made at bank branches around Pakistan. Deposits submitted
2. Applicants grouped into parties of up to 20. 3. Application data entered into computer. 4. Parties chosen randomly to win the ballot.
• Selection continues until total number of visas to be allocated is exhausted.
• Selection nominally stratified by place of departure and accommodation category, sect
5. Data we have was generated immediately after ballot, before anyone found out the results.
6. Results are announced. 7. Some adjustments may be need; for example following withdrawals.
Survey Sample
Random sample of Sunni applicants to the 2006 Hajj
Stratified by gender and randomization into win/loss status
Northern districts of Punjab province chosen for convenience
Interview status by lottery outcome
Total Successful Unsuccessful Total Successful UnsuccessfulSelected for interview 2512 1266 1246 1896 955 941
Lottery StatusPanel A: Full Sample Panel B: Subsample
Lottery Status
Survey Development Survey development based on literature,
discussions with scholars, pretesting
Wide range of questions on health, religion, social relations, political beliefs, and economic outcomes.
Effects on individual and on others’ perceptions, Individual and family.
Survey Mechanics
Survey administered at the household level.
Randomly select a party, and then a member of that party. If they live with a party member of the opposite gender, select them also. Average 1.6 applicants per household.
Survey approximately 2.5 hours duration.
Two survey teams worked out of Rawalpindi and Faisalabad cities.
Areas varied in the difficulty of surveying.
Introduction
We present some initial results that speak to the role of Hajj as an institution within Islam.
These results relate to: A literature that suggests Hajj may promote orthodoxy, unity with
Muslims worldwide. Debate on local practices in South Asia, elsewhere. Concerns regarding relations between Muslims and others and
the role of Hajj.
Engagement and exposure
Participation and interest in political and national affairs
Social interaction Formal religious knowledge Awareness of diversity within Islam Views on gender and marriage in Islam Global awareness
Views on Tolerance
How do Hajjis view people from other countries and groups?
How do Hajjis view the possibility of social cooperation and compromise across groups?
Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev.Age 54.575 13.240 55.347 13.246Female 0.490 0.500 0.494 0.500Married 0.943 0.232 0.951 0.218Illiterate 0.402 0.490 0.424 0.494Middle School Completer 0.253 0.435 0.255 0.436High School Graduate 0.167 0.373 0.167 0.373College Graduate 0.178 0.383 0.154 0.361City 0.400 0.490 0.361 0.481Periurban/ large village 0.274 0.460 0.284 0.451Rural 0.325 0.470 0.355 0.479Ballot Success 0.533 0.499 0.516 0.500
Table 7: Summary StatisticsFull Sample Subsample
Robustness
Controls Individual characteristics, district dummies, surveyor and
supervisor dummies Only coefficient to drop of views of other social groups
Balanced subsample Few changes – nothing statistically different Local beliefs and practices, global awareness smaller magnitude &
not significant. But Subsample doesn’t cover all regions--heterogeneity?
Related literature
Beliefs and Exposure How immutable are (adult) beliefs on religion, attitudes
towards others? What induces/facilitates change? Exposure & Experience
Group interactions – Social Psychology (Pettigrew and Tropp, 00; Stephan, 78)
Lab settings – Empathy (Cooperative settings) vs. Antipathy (Competitive)
Religion as the necessary “glue” (Putnam, 07)?
Institutions and belief systems Order w/o hierarchy - Hajj & Islamic cohesion?
Results Summary: Religion:
Global religious practices increase relative to locally specific religious beliefs & practices.
Tolerance More positive on other countries and social groups; belief in
compromise Belief in nonviolence; no increase in political Islam or West suspicion
Gender: Improved views of women; view rel. quality of women’s lives in Pakistan
lower Increased desire for girls to be educated and have professions No challenge to male authority in household matters, etc.
Health: Psychological strain for women & worse physical health
Channels? Engagement & Exposure - interaction in context established by Hajj? Increase knowledge of Islamic diversity, gender, and the world No change in formal religious knowledge No evidence of change in social role once return
Survey Topics
Religious knowledge and practice Tolerance Views on gender Physical and mental health Political involvement and beliefs Social interaction and roles Business and employment
Results Summary: Religion:
Global religious practices increase relative to locally specific religious beliefs & practices.
Tolerance More positive on other countries and social groups; belief in
compromise Belief in nonviolence; no increase in political Islam or West suspicion
Gender: Improved views of women; view rel. quality of women’s lives in Pakistan
lower Increased desire for girls to be educated and have professions No challenge to male authority in household matters, etc.
Health: Psychological strain for women & worse physical health
Channels? Engagement & Exposure - interaction in context established by Hajj? Increase knowledge of Islamic diversity, gender, and the world No change in formal religious knowledge No evidence of change in social role once return