The impact of the crisis on the labour market & Labour market segmentation and recent reforms

The impact of the crisis The impact of the crisis on the labour marketon the labour market

&&Labour market Labour market

segmentation and recent segmentation and recent reformsreforms

Klara StovicekKlara StovicekEuropean Commission, DG ECFINEuropean Commission, DG ECFIN

Labour market developments in the EU

European Commission (2012): EU Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Review, June, forthcoming.

215,000

220,000

225,000

230,000

q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

000's persons

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

- 6 MillionsEmployment (Lhs)

Unemployment (Rhs)

Large diversity across EU countries

Outlook

Weak, no substantial improvements over forecast horizon

Young unemployment rate:

In 2011:21.3% in the EU, about 45% in Spain and Greece

2008-2011

Young: at high risk of unemployment

• Labour market entrants

• High exposure to temporary jobs

• High concentration in cyclically-sensitive industries

• … But also pre-existing structural weaknesses, including employment protection legislation (EPL)

ukse

fi

sk

si

ro

pt

pl

atnl

mt

hu

lu

lt

lv

cy

it

fr

esel

ie

ee

de

dk

cz

bg

be

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50Unemployment rate 25-64

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

rate

15

-24 2011

EPL reforms 1990-2008EPL indicator (OECD): liberalisation of fixed-term contracts

plhu

ieuk

fr

atfi

es

nl

pt

el

dk

be

dese

it

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2008

1990

Temporary contracts

plhuie

uk

fratfi

esnl

pt

el

dk

be

dese

it

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

1990

2008 Permanent contracts:

individual dismissals

European Commission (2010): Labour market and wage developments in 2009

Young: temporary jobs frequent where EPL for permanent contracts is high

(individual dismissals)

EPL reforms since 2008

At the top of the structural reform agenda in several Member States, e.g. ES, IT, PT

Objectives: to reduce labour market segmentation, foster job creation and ease labour market adjustment:

by reforming and promoting permanent contracts

• Easing dismissal rules (individual and collective dismissals)

• Reduction of costs of dismissals and uncertainty related to dismissals (individual and collective dismissals)

• Enhancing the efficiency of the dispute settlement procedures

by revising temporary contracts

EPL reforms since 2008: individual dismissals

• Simplification of notification procedures (IT, PT)

• Clarification and broadening of the scope of justified dismissals

Dismissals on economic grounds:

Justified if revenues or sales fall for 3 consecutive quarters (ES)

Include also dismissals based on organisational reasons (ES)

Employers are not obliged to look for a compatible job within the firm to prevent dismissal anymore (PT)

A tenure rule (last in first out) is abolished if more than one worker in a section is at risk of redundancy (PT)

Dismissals based on incompetence:

Justified also in case of no changes to the work place or nature of a job (PT)

Justified for qualified employees if they fail to meet agreed objectives (PT)

PERMANENT CONTRACTS

EPL reforms since 2008: individual dismissals

• Reduction of costs and uncertainties related to justified dismissals

Severance payments:

Reduced from 30 to 20 days per year of work (ongoing discussion to reduce further to 10 days); a minimum of 3 months of pay independently of tenure is abolished; a maximum is set at 12months (PT)

Maximum wage to calculate severance payments is limited to 20*minimum wage (PT)

Creation of a portable fund to create incentives to job-to-job mobility, under discussion (PT)

Creation of the Wage Guarantee fund (FOGASA) to contribute to severance payments in case of firms with less than 25 workers, up to 1 year (ES)

PERMANENT CONTRACTS

EPL reforms since 2008: individual dismissals

• Reduction of costs and uncertainties related to unjustified dismissals

Severance payments:

Reduced from 45 to 33 days per year of work, a maximum is reduced from 42 to 24 months (ES)

Interim wages during the trial against unfair dismissal:

Capped at 12 months (IT, PT)

Abolished if the employer opts for severance payments (ES)

Reinstatement:

Its scope is reduced in firms with more than 15 employees (IT), including as a result of procedural errors (IT, PT)

PERMANENT CONTRACTS

EPL reform since 2008Update of the EPL indicator •Based on the OECD standard methodology (indicators are indicative, not official OECD figures!)• Only for selected countries

• Not all features of the EPL reforms are captured by the indicator

Results: EPL was reduced in the countries which have the strongest segmentation (fixed-term, self-employment)

Own calculations based on the OECD methodology

0

1

2

3

4

5

PT SI

CZ

DE

SE

LU

NL

SK

PT

afte

r re

form E

S

FR AT

KO

R

EL

ES

afte

r 2

01

0 r

efo

rm FI

ES

afte

r 2

01

2 r

efo

rm PL

EL

afte

r 2

01

0 r

efo

rm HU

JPN IT BE

IE a

fter

refo

rm DK IE

IT a

fter

refo

rm

AU

S

CA

N

CH

E

UK

US

A

Permanent contracts:

individual dismissals

Conclusions (1)

• The impact of the crisis on labour market developments has been uneven across countries and demographic groups

• The crisis gave a decisive push to the recent EPL reforms, which would be very difficult to implement otherwise

• The impact will be country specific, depending on how agents will internalize reforms

• Relevant are also complementarities with other reforms (e.g. those that address collective bargaining, unemployment benefits, internal flexibility, apprenticeship and training)

Conclusions (2)

• Slovenia has a country specific recommendation (CSR) in the area of EPL: “Adjust employment protection legislation as regards permanent contracts in order to reduce labour market segmentation, in consultation with social partners and in accordance with national practices. Further tackle the parallel labour market caused by student work.”

• Thank you