The impact of technology · Source: Aaron KoblinCharles Fadel Charles Fadel Charlesfadel(at) gmail(dot) com The impact of technology CCR Plenary Paris, June 4, 2012

Charles FadelSource: Aaron Koblin

Charles Fadel

Charlesfadel (at) gmail (dot) com

The impact of technology

CCR PlenaryParis, June 4, 2012

© Charles Fadel – All Rights Reserved


Non-Digital Displacement Technologies


Offshoring Health Care


Impact of Technology

Personal deliveryImpersonal delivery

Typing clerk � Bookkeeping

Legal discovery � Legal Opinion

Taxi driver

Surgeon

Policeman

Court proceeding

Security video monitoring

Radiologist

• Autonomous vehicles•Telepresence• Telemedicine

� Robot patrols

� Pathologist

NonroutineSkill

RoutineSkill


Google Autonomous Vehicle

>200kmiles through 2011,

one minor accidents,

occasional human intervention


“Computational Pathologist”

“Computers found more accurate than doctors in breast-cancer diagnosis”

Science Magazine November 10, 2011

“Computational Pathologist” by

Stanford Schools of Engineering and Medicine


Even modeling

Source: Le Monde Culture & Idees, December 24, 2011

H&M admits using a mannequin as digital model with “no flaws”


Displacement due to Technology

Ox � Harvester

Horse � Automobile

Lab Mice � Assays (not soon enough8)

Humans: Scribes � printing pressWashers � washing machineCashiers/Attendants � bar code scannerHealthcare/Finance/Services/Jeopardy champions � Watson

etc


IBM One-Two-Three-Four punchesSyNAPSE (chip) + BlueBrain (system) + Watson (software) + Cloud Computing (infrastructure)

SyNAPSE


Technology Acceleration

0 1 2 3 4 5 (number of years)

Pe

rfo

rma

nce

pe

r $

sp

en

t

Doubling Time (months):9

12

18

Optical fiber bandwidth (bps)

Storage density (bits/sq-cm)

Si chip density (# of transistors/area)


Time

Quantity

x Speed

Antiquity Internet AgeRenaissance Industrial

Revolution

�� Modern

Times

The impact of Search


Coping with data overload


Misperceptions might be hardwired


But they are trainable

So we should train exponential thinking too!


"Name your reward!""Oh emperor, give me one grain of rice for the first square of the chessboard, two grains for the next square, four for the next, and so on for

all 64 squares, with each square having double the number of grains as the

square before."

= 1,000 times 2010 global rice production

Can we train for exponentials ?


Even more impressive5 Algorithmic progress

� Production planning model solved using linear programming:

1988: 82 years

2003: 1 minute

� A factor of roughly 43 million in 15 years

~1,000 due to increased processor speed,

~43,000 due to improvements in algorithms!

� ~30,000 for mixed integer programming (1991� 2008)

Source: Professor Martin Grötschel of Konrad-Zuse-Zentrum für Informationstechnik Berlin.


Distributed Computing - Folding@Home


More to come

� iPhone: $400 price point

• 40T in 2015

• 40E in 2025

� Video record your entire life (2025)

� ExoBrain (2025-2030)

} Already possible

in the Cloud !


Quantum Computing’s Promise

“A quantum computer of just 150 QuBits would have the power of all of today’s supercomputers”

Alan Aspuru-Guzik, Harvard University

Performance reached: • 2005: 1 QuBit• 2009: 2 Qubits• 2010: 16 QuBits• 2011: 84 QuBits• 2012: 128 QuBits ($10M!)


More to come5 3-D Printing

“3-D Printing Spurs a Manufacturing Revolution”September 13, 2010

“It’s about going from the Model T to something like a Mini that has 10 million permutations.”

Scott Summit, Bespoke Innovations:


More to come5 Things


More to come – Augmented Reality


More to come5 Virtual Reality


More to come5 Robotics

Video: Aldebaran Robotics


More to come5 Nanomaterials


More to come5 Brain-enhancers


More to come5 Biotech

MOLECULAR CARTOGRAPHY: 2,898 proteins (nodes) by 5,460 interactions (edges). Science, 303:540–3, 2004.)Validating the Interactome - The Scientist - Magazine of the Life Sciences http://www.the-scientist.com/article/display/14769/#ixzz1cAq1h53e


Brave New World

Human Genome mapping (2005)

“Technology today can do in five minutes a decoding task that would have taken a year to complete a decade ago”

Eric Lander, Founder, The Broad Institute

Improvement by a factor

of 1 million in ten years


A combinatorial explosion of possibilities


Who would have thought of 5

� 15 years ago: Bioinformatics

� 5 years ago: Optogenetics


“The future is already here –

it's just not very evenly distributed.”

Science-Fiction author William Gibson,

quoted in The Economist,

December 4, 2003


Reality Check

"and underestimate the effect in the long run.“

“We tend to overestimate the effect of technology in the short run8

Source: Roy Amara, Former President, Institute for the Future


Hype Cycle

Source: Gartner Group


So what should students learn in5

8 an ambiguous/uncertain era, with ubiquitous search and A.I.?

• Fluidity with Technology

• Versatility

• Adaptability

• Resilience

• Critical thinking – and asking the right questions

• Synthesizing/integrating

• Creating !


Knowledge state of a person

1. Your Brain: Remind & Remediate: The knowledge has existed in the person's brain before, but been forgotten or made inaccessible. The person must be reminded of what they once knew or be remediated

2. Someone Else's Brain: Receive & Reconstruct: The knowledge has existed in someone else’s head, but never in the particular person's head. the person must receive or reconstruct the information

3. No One's Brain: Research & Reflect: The knowledge has never existed in any human's brain, and so the learner must discover it on their own. Asking the right questions becomes the highest level of learning meta-skill to be developed.

Source: Jim Spohrer, IBM Almaden


Technical fluidity: Chess as example

� “Human strategic guidance combined with the tactical acuity of a

computer was overwhelming.”

� “Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong

computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human

+ machine + inferior process”

Source: Gary Kasparov, “The Chess Master and the Computer,” New York Review of Books, February 11, 2010

How about learning Processes?


Versatility as a strategy

mTBroad Knowledge

Single vs Multiple

Deep Expertise

m-shaped Individual, not just T-shaped


It Takes All Talents

Research:

Giant magnetoresistance

Compression algorithms

Key Profile:

Researcher

Development:

H/W, S/W design

Breadboarding & test

Key Profiles:

Engineer

Technician

Production:

Manufacturing

Test

Key Profiles:

Engineer

Technician

Supply chain Mgt


User Interface:

Design

Key Profiles:

Anthropologist

Psychologist

Industrial Design

Marketing/Sales:

Product positioning

Sales

Key Profiles:

Marketing

Sales

Business

Legal & Finance:

Contracts

Financing

Key Profiles:

Legal

Para-Legal

Finance

STEM and Humanities Both Matter


From the Master

“Technology alone is not enough8 it’s technology married with liberal arts, married with humanities, that yield the results that make our hearts sing”.

Steve Jobs, iPad2 intro speech, March 2011


Creativity& Innovation


“The dancing salesman problem”

Source: The Painting Fool


Computerized Trading – Flash Crash

>75% of volume is now “high-speed trading”


Visual arts too


Even Music


“Computers will write more than 90 percent of news in 15 years, and will win a Pulitzer Prize within 5 years.”

Kristian Hammond, CTO and cofounder of Narrative Science,

a company that trains computers to write news stories.

Even Journalism ?


Innovation follows patterns �� automatable

Source: Invention Machine “IM Labs”


The Race between Technology and Education

Inspired by “The race between technology and education” Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)

Industrial Revolution

Social pain

Social pain

Prosperity

Technology

Education

Digital Revolution


An Analogy of Technology vs Education


Change is Inevitable But do we want a Dickensian world ??


“Event Horizon”: What if formal education cannot catch up ?



http://curriculumredesign.org/

The impact of technology · Source: Aaron KoblinCharles Fadel Charles Fadel Charlesfadel(at) gmail(dot) com The impact of technology CCR Plenary Paris, June 4, 2012

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