The Impact of National Early Warning Systems (NEWS) of WANEP on Peace and Security in Nigeria and Ghana

The Impact of National Early Warning Systems (N.E.W.S.)

of WANEP on Peace and Security in Nigeria and Ghana

By

Ifeanyi Okechukwu C.

161669

A Dissertation Submitted to the Department of Peace and

Conflict, Institute of African Studies, University of

Ibadan, Ibadan in Partial Fulfillment of the

Requirement for the Award of Degree of Master of Arts

(M.A.) in Peace and Conflict Studies

Supervisor: Dr. Nathaniel Danjibo

1

September 2012

CERTIFICATION

I certify that this research work was carried out by OKECHUKWU,

Ifeanyi C. with Matriculation Number 161669 of the Department of

Peace and Conflict Studies Programme, Institute of African

Studies, University of Ibadan, Nigeria under my supervision

2

…………………….. ……………………….

Supervisor Date

Dr. Nathaniel Danjibo

Department of Peace and Conflict Studies

Institute of African Studies

University of Ibadan,

Ibadan, Nigeria.

DEDICATION

To all Peacemakers in West Africa

3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

4

My immense gratitude goes to Ononuju Okwaragwoma for his

assistance throughout the duration of my research. Also to all

monitors and analysts of the National Early Warning System of

WANEP in Ghana and Nigeria.

My colleagues and friends at the secretariat I say thank you for

your encouragement.

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

AU African Union

CSO Civil Society Organizations

ECOSOC Economic, Social and Cultural Council5

ECOWARN ECOWAS Warning and Response Network

ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States

ECPF ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework

EWS Early Warning System

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GPPAC Global Partnership for Prevention of Armed Conflict

HRW Human Rights Watch

HSC Human Security Centre

ICT Information, Communication and Technology\

IGO International Governmental Organizations

IPCR Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution

NEWS National Early Warning System

NGO Non Governmental Organizations

PVO Private Voluntary Organizations

REC Regional Economic Council

UN United Nations

UNDP United Nations Development Program

UNEP United Nations Environmental Program

USAID United States Agency for International Development

WANEP West Africa Network for Pecebuilding

WANSA West African Network on Small Arms

6

ABSTRACT

The study examines impact and contribution of the National Early

Warning System (NEWS) of WANEP to peace and human security in

Ghana and Nigeria as a logical response to the absence of a

sustainable platform for analysis and preventive response to

emerging trends and patterns of violent conflicts considered as a

growing threat to political stability and development in the West

Africa Sub region with special emphasis on Ghana and Nigeria.

The objectives of this study are to establish the relevance of

the WANEP National early warning platform to peace and security

in two pilot countries of Ghana and Nigeria. It will also analyze

the significance of civil society organization’s contribution to

early warning and response in the two countries. Additionally, it

will determine the relationship between state and non state

actors in the operations of the N.E.W.S. in Ghana and Nigeria.

To achieve the objectives, semi-structured questionnaire was used

to elicit data from identified respondents. Purposive sampling

technique was adopted based on the fact that the sample

population was already predetermined based on their active

participation in the National Early Warning System in Ghana and

Nigeria. Also secondary data using content analysis of relevant

literatures was used. The analysis of the data was both

descriptive and exploratory. 7

The major findings of the analysis are that conflict early

warning is an important platform for proactive prevention or

mitigation of conflict and insecurity in Ghana and Nigeria. And

the structure of the National Early Warning System operated by

WANEP is a significant step towards organized civil

society/government partnership for peace and security in Ghana

and Nigeria.

Based on the findings, it was recommended that the operations of

NEWS should be extended to the districts and grassroots beyond

the Local Government Councils and State levels for effective

impact. Also the process of engagement with State actors need to

be reviewed by WANEP so that policy makers in the Ghana and

Nigeria can have more access to NEWS products to make informed

policies.

TABLE OF CONTENT PAGE

Title Page i

Certification ii

Dedication iii

Acknowledgement iv

List of Abbreviations

v

Abstract vi

8

Table of Contents vii

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background of the Study 1

1.2. Aim/Objectives of the Study

3

1.3. Significance of the Study

3

1.4. Justification of the Study

4

1.5. Scope of the Study 5

CHAPTER TWO: CONCEPTUAL DEFINITION AND

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. Conceptual Clarification

7

2.2. Literature Review

2.2.1. Retrospection of Peace and Security in Ghana and

Nigeria 10

2.2.2. Current Threats to Peace and Security in Ghana and

Nigeria 12

2.2.3. The Contribution of Human Security to National

Security 19

2.2.4. Peace Analysis 20

2.2.5. Early Warning Analysis

21

9

2.2.6. The Role of Civil Society in Peace and Security

26

2.2.7. About WANEP 29

2.2.8. The National Early Warning System of WANEP

30

CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY

3.1. Instruments Used for Data Collection

37

3.2. Population Size Using Purposive Sampling Technique

38

3.3. Data Analysis Using Simple Percentage Statistics

39

3.4. Limitations of the Study 40

CHAPTER FOUR: COMPARATIVE STUDY AND ANALYSIS

OF WANEP N.E.W.S BETWEEN GHANA

AND NIGERIA

4.1. Demographic Profile of Respondents

41

4.2. Comparative Analysis of Security/Proximate Conditions

in Ghana and Nigeria

43

10

4.3. Knowledge of the WANEP National Early Warning System

47

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY/RECOMMENDATION

AND CONCLUSION

5.1. Summary of Findings 55

5.2. Recommendations 56

5.3. Conclusion 57

References 58

Appendix 62

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background of the Study:

In the past two decades the West Africa sub region has been

faced by diverse levels of insecurity which has threatened

the continued existence of the countries in the region.

11

These conflicts are of varying dimensions, durations, scales

and intensities. Conflict triggers and catalysts are also

multi-dimensional, ranging from historical animosities and

colonial legacies, to factors rooted in the complexity of

post-colonial realities, forces of globalisation and global

governance and external agencies. In a region that accounts

for a majority of the twenty (20) poorest countries in

the world following all the recent human development and

human security indices published by the United Nations and

the Human Security Centre (UN, 2005), the developmental and

security consequences of armed conflicts cannot be over-

stated. Parlous economic disruptions and war-shattered

economies, collapsed public infrastructures, attrition of

state governing institutions, proliferations of small arms,

light weapons, lawless militias and rebel groups; grinding

poverty and hopelessness, poor life expectancy and quick

mortality rate for all age groups, as well as crippling

disorder and human rights disasters has pervaded the West

African states.

It is difficult to develop a clear-cut typology or

classification of contemporary conflicts in the region not

least because of the multi-causal, multi-dimensional and

inter-connected nature of most conflicts. However, based on

the analyses of principal causalities and catalysts, many

12

recent studies and leading schools of thought have

highlighted conflicts of varied significance and

consequences both within and across a range of proximate

conditions in the region. What is clear however is that most

conflicts and political instability in West Africa has been

wholly driven internally, arising from varying degrees of

disenchantment to the unsatisfactory response of state

institutions to address social, economic and political needs

of its citizens. Beginning from the 90’s, these internal

conflicts took on the nature and scope of mass resistance

and violent oppositions resulting to most West African

countries being referred to as the theatre of deadly

conflicts and instability in the continent.

These conflicts became intractable with grave implications

to political stability of countries in the region due to

poor preventive and transformation strategies by State and

Non State Actors. A further set back to this process is the

dearth of relevant platform for sustainable analysis of

emerging trends and patterns of conflict and security

threats which would facilitate informed responses to these

issues. A disconnect existed in a complimentary pool of data

and analysis of emerging security threats from communities

which will support state actions for conflict prevention and

management. The dimension and threat of these conflicts to

the continued stability of most West African countries has

13

given rise to a critical mass of active and committed civil

society organisations as agents of social transformation.

Civil Society Organisations such as the West Africa Network

for Peacebuilding (WANEP) have committed itself to bridge

this gap by initiating preventive mechanisms such as the

National Early Warning System to complement the role of

state institutions to peace and security within the

countries of West Africa. This effort has broadened and

consolidated the concept of human security as an integral

part of National security within the West Africa countries

as an integral part of peace and development in the sub

region.

This study examines and analyses the critical importance of

this institution’s contribution to National Early Warning

Systems (N.E.W.S.) against the back drop of emerging

strength, capacity and intervention of civil society

organisations to peace and security with emphasis on Nigeria

and Ghana in the past two decades.

14

1.2 Aim/Objectives of the Study

1.2.1. Aim of the Study

The aim of the study is to assess the impact and

contribution of WANEP National Early Warning system to peace

and security in Ghana and Nigeria.

1.2.2. Objectives of the Study

To validate the proximate conditions of conflict that

informs the operations of the WANEP N.E.W.S. in Ghana and

Nigeria

To establish the relevance of WANEP N.E.W.S. platform in

promoting peace and security in Ghana and Nigeria.

To analyze the significance of CSO role and contribution to

early warning and response in Ghana and Nigeria.

To determine the relationship between State actors and CSOs

in the operations of N.E.W.S. in Ghana and Nigeria.

To identify the challenges and constraints of the N.E.W.S in

Ghana and Nigeria

To formulate recommendations for the consolidation and

impact of the NEWS in Ghana and Nigeria.

1.3. Significance of the Study

There is an increasing global realization that based on the

negative impact of conflicts to development and human

security, a paradigm shift from conflict resolution to

15

conflict prevention mechanisms has become imperative.

Conflict prevention is seen as more proactive and has the

capacity to prevent or mitigate destructive conflict or

humanitarian crises. As core element of conflict prevention,

early warning has increasingly gained prominence,

credibility and efficiency as a preventive mechanism and

solution to conflicts in societies.

There is a need for proactive monitoring of issues of human

security. The National Early Warning System plays this very

important role. It provides a system that carries out both

monitoring and managerial outlook.

In addition, the WANEP (N.E.W.S.) supports and compliments

ECOWARN as part of the ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework

(ECPF) that was developed in January 2008 to inform and

guide the organization’s conflict prevention efforts. The

vertical information generation platform created by NEWS at

National and regional level provide a strong conceptual

understanding of community and State conflict prevention as

well as strengthen ECOWAS’ Institutional mechanisms

responsible for conflict prevention and peacebuilding. These

aims are to be achieved through a set of components covering

a broad spectrum of areas that enhance human security: Early

Warning, Preventive Diplomacy, Democracy and Political

Governance, Human Rights and the Rule of Law, Natural

Resource Governance, Cross-Border Initiatives, Security

16

Governance, Practical Disarmament, Women, Peace and

Security, Youth Empowerment, ECOWAS Standby Force,

Humanitarian Assistance and Peace Education. (ECOWAS, 2011)

N.E.W.S represents the new age of global civil society

ownership and active participation in the transformation of

conflicts that affect them. It offers a broad based feedback

and responsive approach to conflict prevention and

management from the communities to the national and regional

levels. It provides a comprehensive framework for the entire

security and peace architecture for development within

National and sub regional borders.

1.4. Justification of the Study

Terrorism and conflict have become globalised and to this

end an effective system capable of mitigating or preventing

this threat has been globally recognized. . The early

warning system has proved that it is effective tool for

proactive monitoring of issues of conflict. Further impetus

to the adoption and institutionalization of the early

warning system has been boosted by the UN Security Council

Resolution 1624 of 2005 which among other declarations

stated the need to strengthen the important role of the

organ in the prevention of violent conflicts, and to develop

effective partnerships between the Council and regional

17

organisations, in particular the African Union and its sub

regional organisations, in order to enable early responses

to disputes and emerging crises. It also affirms its

commitment to support regional and sub regional capacities

for early warning to help them work out appropriate

mechanisms to enable prompt reactions to early warning

indicators. A motivating aspect of the resolution is the

encouragement of civil society actors to increase their

participation in conflict prevention mechanisms.(UN,2005)

Without peace and security, neither citizens nor communities

can be personally secure. Without secure and stable

countries...individual, community, regional and

international security remain elusive. (Anticipating African

Conflict, 2005)

The concept and dynamics of national security has shifted

from exclusive concentration on the State to human security

as the driver to peace and security. This requires continued

and sustained collaboration and partnership between

government and civil society. WANEP NEWS was developed and

operated on this premise which is committed to proactive

response to threats to human security which impedes national

security.

1.5. Scope of the Study

18

This study will focus on the efficiency of the WANEP

National Early Warning system within the context of

preventive actions for human security in Ghana and Nigeria.

The period of analysis will span from 1999-2011. Nigeria and

Ghana have been chosen as the scope of this study as a

result of the growing democratic structure in these

countries. Both Ghana and Nigeria share in the renaissance

of a new democratic process which has remained relatively

stable and sustainable.

It is also limited to the WANEP Nigeria and Ghana National

Early Warning System (N.E.W.S.) and response as the most

outstanding conflict preventive mechanism within the WANEP

structure as well as in civil society driven system within

the sub region.

The study also focuses on analysis within the State and Non

State actors involved in the N.E.W.S. systems of WANEP in

Ghana and Nigeria and their complementary roles to peace and

security in the two countries. One of the key considerations

of the two countries under study is their advanced level of

operation of the N.E.W.S. which is the most developed and

operationalised under the regional National early warning

system of WANEP.

19

CHAPTER 2: CONCEPTUAL DEFINTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. Conceptual Clarification

20

This section of the study deals with the definition of

concepts relating to the different variables under focus.

The essence is to capture relevant concepts to the study.

These include the following:

a. Environmental Conflict

b. Identity Conflict

c. Socio-economic Conflict

d. Political Conflict

e. Security

f. Peace

g. Early Warning

h. Civil Society Organizations

a. Environmental Conflict:

An environmental conflict is a conflict caused by the

environmental scarcity of a resource. It is caused by a

human made disturbance of its normal regeneration rate.

Environmental scarcity can result from the overuse of a

renewable resource or from the overstrain of the ecosystem’s

sink capacity, that is pollution. Both can reach the stage

of a destruction of the space of living.(Libiszewski, 1992). The

resource conflict which has been pervasive in Nigeria and

also threatens peace in Ghana constitutes a core indicator

for data collection and analysis in NEWS of WANEP.

b. Identity Conflict:

21

The concept of identity is heavily influenced by

relationships with others. The tendency humans have to put

individuals and groups into categories is, essentially, a

way of enabling them to survive in a world where they do not

have the time to make individual assessments of everyone

(Simon Fisher et al, 2000). Identity based conflicts are

based in people’s psychology, culture, basic values, shared

history and beliefs. It threatens people’s basic needs and

very survival. It has also been linked to roles, affinities

and goals (ibid).

c. Socio-Economic Conflict:

Socio-Economic is a concept which is a combination or

relationship of social and economic factors within societies

or States. The relativity of the conditions of these factors

determines the stability and well being of a people. The

absence or limited access to social or economic conditions

for development is a strong driver of fierce competition and

power which may affect peace and security in a given

environment. Various analyses have examined this

relationship and its link to poverty and conflict.

d. Political Conflict:

According to the political concept of conflict, the State is

the sole context where various groups or individuals are

competing to take advantage of others. They often believe

22

that they will gain access to the State when others are

eliminated or disabled. Power is at the centre of all

political conflicts as it is perceived to be a critical

currency of the gratification of dignity, recognition,

freedom e.t.c. often contested by groups. (Heinrich Boll

Foundation, 2008).

e. Security:

National security is the requirement to maintain the

survival of the state through the use

of economic, diplomacy, power projection and political

power. Accordingly, in order to possess national security, a

nation needs to possess economic security,energy

security, environmental security, etc. Security threats

involve not only conventional foes such as other nation-

states but also non-state actors such as violent non-state

actors, narcotic cartels, multinational

corporations and non-governmental organisations; some

authorities include natural disasters and events causing

severe environmental damage in this category.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_security). Human security on the

other hand has been defined as ‘the freedom of future

generations to inherit a healthy natural environment

(http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2000/20000508.sgsm7382.do

c.html). And the freedom to take action on one’s own behalf

(http://www.humansecurity-chs.org/finalreport)

23

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2000/20000508.sgsm7382.doc.html


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_security

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_disaster

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-governmental_organisation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_corporation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_corporation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violent_non-state_actor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violent_non-state_actor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation-state

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation-state

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_security

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_security

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_security

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_security

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_power

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_power

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_projection

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_power

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_(polity)

f. Peace:

Peace has been defined as a relative condition of security

friendly climate that allows individuals and group relations

to progressive order and stability. Peace does not mean the

absence of conflict or war. It reflects that security

friendly system that frees individuals and groups of peoples

from fears and dangers of losing such inalienable human

rights as life, liberty, and prosperity. It has also been

defined as a process involving activities that are directly

or indirectly linked to increasing development and reducing

conflict, both within specific societies and in the wider

international community. (Conceptualizing Peace, 2006)

g. Early Warning:

By definition, Early Warning has been described as a process

of communicating judgments about threats early enough for

decision-makers to take action to deter whatever outcome is

threatened; or failing that, to manage events in such a way

that the worst consequences are mitigated” (WANEP, 2008).

It has also been defined as a systematic collection of data

and interpretation of the data through an analytical process

to produce a report for dissemination. It is rooted in new

‘human security’ thinking about the expanding responsibility

of the state to protect its citizens and to make informed

responses to their needs.

24

h. Civil Society:

Refers to the associations of citizens (outside their

families, friends and businesses) entered into voluntarily

to advance their interests, ideas and ideologies. The term

does not include profit-making activity (the private sector)

or governing (the public sector). (WANEP, 2008), It

comprises of trade unions, professional associations, social

movements, indigenous people’s organizations, religious and

spiritual organizations, academia and public benefit non-

governmental organizations.

Also Camerer added that civil society is an, “…inherently

pluralistic realm distinct from, yet interacting with the

state and processes of production, consisting of numerous

associations and organized around specific interests with

the following in common: communally organised, independent,

voluntary, autonomous, able to form links with other

interest groups and do not in any way seek to set themselves

up as an alternative to the state”. (Camerer, 1996)

2.2. Literature Review:

2.2.1. Retrospection of Peace and Security in Nigeria and

Ghana (1999- 2012)

25

Nigeria’s transition from two decades of military rule began

in June 1998 when political power was handed over to

civilians in May 1999. However, the democratic transition

was suffused by myriads of violent conflicts across the

country. A comprehensive undertaken by USAID/ARD, Future

Directions for USAID Support to Conflict Mitigation in Nigeria, noted:

The array of conflicts is bewildering; the intensity of the violence often stunning.

In the short space of two years since a democratically elected civilian

administration took power, armed confrontations have erupted throughout the

country over such issues as: religion; economic power and opportunities;

political power and offices; division of wealth (known colloquially as “the federal

cake”) delivered from subsurface nonrenewable resources — principally

petroleum in the Niger Delta and neighboring areas — and controlled by the

federal government; land; renewable natural resources, including livestock

forage, wood stocks, and fisheries; environmental damage; labor-management

relations; urban “turf” disputes among youth gangs; disputes among youth of

rural communities; and police-related violence.( (Civil Society Strengthening For

Conflict Prevention Study, 2001))

In the first two and a half years of civilian rule, around

7000 people were reported dead from sudden bursts of

communal violence. From 2001, severe conflicts have occurred

which reveal the intractability of particular conflict

issues, as well as the inter-linkages of many of these

factors. The causes for Nigeria’s conflicts are numerous,

and debatable depending on the philosophical outlook one

26

employs. In addition to the legacy of colonialism,

interacting contemporary conflict causes include: diversity

of identities and values, in particular with reference to

ethnicity and religion (…150 million people and 250 ethnic

groups); immense natural resources, oil in particular, that

is profoundly inequitably distributed, with particular

adversity to the communities that reside in its terrain; the

control of those natural resources, and the economy in

general, by the federal government; twenty years of military

misrule, and the continuing pervasiveness of military and

police violence and abuse; tensions between traditional and

modern practices and between residents and development

project; and the perception by northerners that the federal

government is dominated by southerners and Middle-Belt

people, and by easterners that they are virtually excluded

from power in central government. (Ibid)

In contrast to Nigeria, Ghana’s current democracy which

shares a similar reference as the fourth republic with

Nigeria has been widely regarded as politically progressive.

With a history of military and authoritarian rule, Ghana is

nevertheless currently considered one of the most stable

countries in Africa. In 1992, President Rawlings facilitated

the transformation of military to democratic rule and

consequently ushered in the fourth republic. Unlike many of

the states in the West African sub region, Ghana can lay

27

claim to a decade of relative peace. The relatively few

cases of conflict that have arisen have been confined to

small areas in different parts of the country. (Ibid).With the

exception of interethnic violence in the run up to

independence and the secessionist movement in the Ewe-

dominated Volta region in the 1970s, Ghana is often

considered a model of inter-ethnic harmony. Since

independence, the leaders in high office have been elected

based on the popularity and strength of their parties rather

than their ethnic origin.(ibid)

This does not totally exclude ethnic tensions and

confrontations. While the former President Rawlings

government played down ethnic differences, his opponents

claimed that the Ewe ethnic group from the eastern part of

the country dominated the government. Ironically, the Ewe-

dominated Volta region remains one of the most

underdeveloped in the country. A 1997 survey found that 25

percent of the respondents believed they had experienced

discrimination due to their tribal origins. (US Department of

State,2000).In the 2000 elections, political parties went to

great lengths to push the ethnic question on the political

agenda —ethnically balancing their presidential teams in

all-out efforts to illustrate their inclusiveness. Election-

related tensions and violence remain a challenge for

28

Ghanaians at each democratic transition. . (Civil Society

Strengthening For Conflict Prevention Study, 2001)

Chieftaincy and land-related conflicts in the Northern

Region of the country continue to pose a lot of challenge to

the country’s democracy. The discovery of crude oil in the

country is clouded by enormous human and environmental

security challenges. (Overview of peace and security in West Africa,

2010). Both Ghana and Nigeria share the common tensions of

north-south divide polarized along Christian-Muslim

interests. In Ghana, the Muslim north have continually

expressed their displeasure and opposition to the

underdevelopment of the north in comparison to the

Christian-dominated south (particularly the Ashanti region

and the Greater Accra area)..

2.2.2. Current Threats to Peace and Security in Ghana and

Nigeria:

Based on a timeframe of 1999 to 2011, the major causative

causes of conflict in Nigeria and Ghana has been subsumed

under four major threats to peace and security. These

factors relate closely to the major thematic indicators

prevalent in the National Early Warning System of WANEP that

form the baseline for data collection, analysis and

response. These threats include, Environmentally induced

29

conflicts; Identity conflicts; Socio-economic conflicts,

Political conflicts.

The place of environment in conflict has remained a

controversial discourse in the field of research. Tobias

Hagmann in his publication stated that there is divided

agreement on the role of environment to conflict. At some

circles there has been opposition to the research argument

that resource scarcity and environmental degradation

contribute to the violent conflicts, as they describe this

assertion as being fundamentally flawed as it neither allows

for convincing empirical substantiation nor for sound theory

building. Other group of researchers relates resource

scarcity to violent conflicts as has been increasing

experienced from case studies available from most unstable

nations of Africa. (Tobias Hagmann, 2005)

However there is an increasing agreement that a human

being’s continuous subsistence may be threatened when

availability or disruption of access to environmental

resources result from natural or manmade changes. This could

have a direct or indirect influence on the response to

access these resources either competitively, aggressively or

outright conflict. The United Nations Environmental Program

(UNEP) report of 1999 indicates three major trends emerging

from environmental conflicts:

30

1. Conflicts over water resources appear to be a major source

of direct international conflict. The most common

environmental elements around which conflicts can erupt are

water flow, diversion, salinization, floods and pollution.

2. Indirect international or indirect intranational conflict

are commonly caused by resource depletion issues-

deforestation, soil erosion, desertification, flooding and

pollution

3. …the vast majority of environmentally related conflicts

occur in developing regions. (UNEP Information note 99-16:

June 1999)

Environmental threats pose great challenge for Nigeria as

well as to Ghana for peace and security of its peoples. The

devastation of the environment and ecological balance by oil

and gas exploitation in Nigeria for instance…and the

potential threats it has for Ghana… has multidimensional

security implications for the two countries. Pollution has

resulted in fishery decline, land infertility, decreased

visibility, toxic uninhabitable environment, widespread

diseases, increased presence of greenhouse gases and

pungent-smelling atmosphere. These translate into an

alarming rate of unemployment and poverty in Nigeria.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_issues_in_the_Ni

ger_Delta). With the discovery of oil in Ghana, the Nigeria

conflict experience has become a referral point in their

31

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_issues_in_the_Niger_Delta


development road map for the exploration of this new

resource. Already, emerging disagreements and analysis point

to possible confrontations and conflict if the government

does not commit itself to conflict sensitive development of

the resource in host communities.

Another key conflict issue linked to environment in the

context of the countries under study is the pastoralist-

farmer conflicts. According to Abba Shettima et al, some

factors have been advanced to explain the preponderance of

the conflict between farmers and pastoralists in West

Africa. They include growing pressure on natural resources,

caused by human population increase; the growth in the

population of herds; and the extension of cultivated areas.

(Abba Shettima and Usman A Tar: 2008) This reinforces the

argument on the relationship between the environment and

conflict which poses challenge to peace and security to

Nigeria and Ghana especially at the Northern regions of the

two countries.

Under to conflicts related to identity, scholars have argued

that it is the central driving force for various dimensions

of proximate conditions that reinforce a vicious cycle of

violent conflict within societies. The discrimination and

socio-political exclusion foisted by competition for

identity has led to various intensities of conflicts within

32

and across States. In most West Africa countries, negative

impacts and consequences such as ethnicity, gender

discrimination/abuse, religious discrimination/violence,

nepotism, political exclusion, bad governance and corruption

have all been traced to the concept of identity. Nigeria for

instance has often been highlighted as a good example of the

impact of identity conflict traceable to its colonialism by

the British. They used a combined process of trade monopoly,

military superiority, conquest, divide and rule policy to

deepen division and suspicion among diverse ethnic

nationalities that constitute the Nigerian state. (Abasili,

2004). These colonial policies had far-reaching

implications, as they directed and shaped many of the post-

independence socio-political formations of the state and

economic integration process in Nigeria. This abnormal

structure has subsisted and continues to bedevil the country

as an average Nigerian citizen exhibits a sense of

detachment as well as complacent approach to nation building

and national identification. It is devoid of nationalism,

national consciousness and national loyalty. The satisfying

sentiment of belonging to a homogenous united group and the

collective feelings and aspirations displayed by citizens

towards their state is conspicuously absent as a result

negative perception of identity (ibid). The raging

controversy over the concept of “indigenes” and “settlers”,

the “zoning political arrangement” and the increasing

33

polarization of the North and Southern dichotomy with

linkages to religious bigotry has its roots to the

application and reinforcement of identity conflict in

Nigeria. It has been propagated over the years by various

political interests and pressure groups as a means of

branding and exclusion of ‘non- aligned’ groups or

communities, often times with little rational basis which

ends up in intense struggles and violence with high

casualties and mirrored responses. In Ghana, there has been

growing concerns on the effect of identity conflict to its

continued national cohesion and political stability. Spill

offs from identity conflict has been recorded in over 200

internal conflicts around the country reflected in

chieftaincy, land and political conflicts. In the northern

part of the country, these conflicts have taken ethnic

dimensions. Between 1980 and 2002, the three northern

regions recorded 26 violent ethnic conflicts. Seventeen (17)

of the conflicts occurred in the northern region alone. Of

the 26 conflicts 18 were inter-ethnic, involving the same

ethnic groups. (Pul 2003). These conflicts have left

communities polarized by grief, hatred, and mutual mistrust

leading to a cycle of violence and revenge. (Threat Narratives,

Group Identity and Violence, 2008).

It is a historical fact and current reality that most

districts in Northern Region of Ghana are haunted by actual

34

or potential ethnic conflicts. This is partly because of the

fact that the different communities continue to consciously

or unconsciously rely on ethnicity to perpetuate their

dominance and hegemony in an atmosphere characterized by

fear, suspicion and prejudice. The proliferation of ethnic

conflicts in this region is so widespread that there is

hardly any district where the problem has not reared its

ugly head. West Gonja District, Nanumba South District,

Nanumba North District, Gusheigu-Karaga District, Yendi

District, East Gonja District, Bole District, Tamale

Metropolitan Assembly, Saboba-Chereponi and Zabzugu-Tatale

are all examples of areas where some conflict have occurred.

The necessity for a new paradigm in approaching the issue of

ethnic conflicts and their management cannot therefore be

overemphasized in this context. (Mohammed Suleiman, 2009).

The prevalence of these ethnic conflicts is rooted strongly

on the issue of identity struggles and relevance.

Armed conflict and war have been said to have undisputed

effect on poverty. Consequently poverty is a cause and a

consequence of armed conflict and war. Current conceptual

frameworks for analyzing the inter relationship between

armed conflict and war and poverty are mainly based on three

legs; namely cost of conflict, grievance and greed. The idea

that armed conflict and war induce broad socioeconomic

losses, and hence exacerbate poverty is widely accepted and

supported by various conflict analysis. Cost of conflict

35

analyses ranges from direct economic losses due to decreased

growth rates of a nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), to

direct and indirect cost on human health. There is less

agreement, however, about the reverse theory: poverty

causing armed conflict and war. According to the grievance

approach, unbalanced societal development leads to

inequality, exclusion and poverty which in turn contribute

to growing grievances that might lead to violent conflict.

Recent economic research challenges this grievance approach,

as it might oversimplify the reality. Neo classical economic

theory stresses that there are not only costs incurred by

armed conflict and war, but also benefits at least for

certain population groups. Supporters of this theory argue

that rather than just grievance, opportunities for predatory

accumulation-namely greed-tends to cause conflict and war.

(Thomas Furst et al, 2010)

Nigeria as a case study for this project typifies the impact

of negative socio-economic conditions which has often been

the causative factor for myriads of violent conflicts across

the country. Although Nigeria’s oil and natural gas

revenues are estimated at over $40 billion per year, its

human development indicators are among the world’s lowest,

and a majority of the population suffer from extreme

poverty. (Nigeria: Current Issues, 2008) Despite its oil wealth,

Nigeria remains highly underdeveloped. Greed as sited in

Thomas et al, has translated to massive corruption and poor

36

governance which in turn has led to limited infrastructure

development and the provision of social services, hindering

economic development and leaving much of the country marred

in poverty and conflict.

Most ethnic, communal and chieftaincy conflicts find their

nourishment from socio-economic deprivation. With a

significant population of 68 million unemployed youths in

Nigeria (Daily Trust, 2011) who are economically vulnerable,

conflict entrepreneurs manipulate and exploit this group as

‘foot soldiers’ for the perpetration of violent conflicts

experienced in Nigeria since 1999. Ethnic conflicts in Ghana

have caused socio economic impact with negative consequences

to lives and livelihood. For instance between February 1994

and March 1996, the Konkomba and Nanumba/Dagomba conflict

alone which has come to be known as the ‘Guinea Foul War’ in

which modern weapons such as AK 47 were deployed and used

claimed more than 2,000 human lives. In addition, 178,000

people were displaced, 18,900 domestic animals and birds

were lost, 144 farming villages destroyed and thousands of

acres of farmlands and millions of dollars worth of property

belonging to Government and affected communities destroyed

(Noble Kwabla Gati, 2008). This is a revalidation of the

relationship between socio economic deprivation and conflict

which in Nigeria’s case as well as in Ghana has threatened

the political stability of the State and region

37

respectively. According to Gurr et al, “Poor societies are

at risk of falling into no exit cycles of conflict in which

ineffective governance, societal warfare, humanitarian

crises, and lack of development perpetually chase one

another. (Gurr et al, 2001: 13). This therefore makes

socioeconomic indices a critical monitoring platform for the

measurement of stability and human security in any given

State.

Additional threat to peace and security is rooted in

political conflict which in turn is rooted in power, and

over- all structures of expectations constituting a state

shapes the nature and direction of manifest conflict. R.J

Rummel highlighted this conflict when he stated that the

conditions affecting a society’s interests, capabilities and

will is ultimately dependent on the use of political

authority. (R.J. Rummel, 1997). Neiburg stated that

“Behind every quarrel, hidden deep within the issues of

every dispute, lies a fundamental authority issue” (Nieburg,

1969). Especially important in this regard is the coercive

power that the elite are willing to employ. In modern states

where political system keeps and enforces the general

structure of expectations, conflict is often between the

political elite and those attacking their policies or the

status quo. The more dominant the political system in social

38

affairs, the more social conflict swirls around the

extension of government control. Whether in fact conflict

will be manifest is another question. This depends on the

force and terror the elite are willing to employ. Repression

raises the costs of opposing the elite. The increase in the

use of force signals a decrease in legitimacy or a blockage

of the demands of those seeking a change in policies or

status quo. (op cit)

Nigeria’s current democratic dispensation otherwise referred

to as the fourth republic, typifies this political conflict.

Political violence especially relating to elections has

marred democratic ethos and significantly discredited the

legitimacy of the political class. Election related

conflicts in Nigeria emanate from power struggles within the

political class, and sometimes involve the manipulation of

the people, who are inevitably less informed about the

essence of the power struggle. The elite and the politicians

are often accused by the populace of manipulating or

twarting electioneering process (es) for self interest. The

re-institution of democracy in Nigeria in 1999 re-opened the

space for political power struggle and intrigue which the

country has been known for since its independence. These

struggles are often moulded along ethnic and religious lines

in order to earn the support of the populace and make them

the vanguard for the fight of the elite for the latter’s

39

ambition.(IPCR,2003) Throughout the political history of

Nigeria, the system has been bedeviled by high cases of

election violence. Most of these violence are linked to

thuggery, assassinations, politically instigated

group/community conflicts. For instance, in 1999, twenty

eight (28) persons were reported killed in the general

elections across the country. The figures quardrapled in

2003 elections with reports of over 100 deaths. During the

2007 general elections, about 300 persons were reported to

have been killed. The violence that accompanied the 2007

polls was widespread and openly organized on such a scale as

to lay bare deeper patterns of corruption and abuse in

politics to an unusual degree. The widespread violence at

the Northern region of Nigeria during the April presidential

elections of 2011 validates this struggle among the

political elites where the populace were manipulated along

ethnic and religious lines to cause wide scale death and

casualties, which is one of the highest in the political

history of Nigeria.

2.2.3. The Contribution of Human Security to National

Security:

Within the field of peace and security, scholars and

practitioners have increasingly argued and debated on what

precisely should be considered National security. Consensus

40

seems to be lacking over precisely what threats individuals

and citizens should be protected from. Harold Brown defines

national security as "… the ability to preserve the nation's physical

integrity and territory; to maintain its economic relations with the rest of the

world on reasonable terms; to preserve its nature, institution, and governance

from disruption from outside; and to control its borders." (Harold

Brown, 1983). To Charles Maier national security, “…is best

described as a capacity to control those domestic and foreign conditions that the

public opinion of a given community believes necessary to enjoy its own self-

determination or autonomy, prosperity and wellbeing."( Charles

Maier ,1990). Advocates for the broader meaning of security

agree that individuals should not be protected only from

violence or fear but also from other challenges such as

hunger, disease and natural disasters because these kill far

more people than war, genocide and terrorism combined. (The

Resolution of African Conflicts: The Management of Conflict Resolution & Post-

Conflict Reconstruction, 2008).

Accordingly, they argue that security should include the

protection of people from threat as well as from violence.

While those that support the narrow perspective indicate

that focusing on more specific issues would lead to greater

success, the broader school of thought states that

addressing issues narrowly cannot bring sustainable peace

and security since other root causes will not be addressed

and may escalate with time. It shows the interrelated

41

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Brown_(Secretary_of_Defense)



nature of security. Therefore human security and national

security can never be mutually exclusive. It is impossible

to ignore the fact that both are interlinked since one

cannot be achieved without the other…. Thus the broader

perspective of human security is useful as it provides

broader indicators…preventive mechanisms…such as a conflict

early warning and response system… (Establishing an Early Warning

System in the African Peace and Security Architecture, 2010)

2.2.4. Peace Analysis

The main difference between peace and war is that while the

former is constructive, cooperative, integrative and

collaborative, the latter is destructive and disintegrative.

Peace is the human desired condition and order of existence

that allows the ruler and the ruled to fulfill life

obligations with minimum fear and danger on life, liberty

and property. (peace and conflict resolution, 2007). According to

Professor Okechukwu Ibeanu (2006), an important conception

of peace is the non violent transformation of conflict. Non

violence is about struggle for freedom, justice, human

rights. It is also worth of note that peace is not a

fixation but a process. This means that peace may exist in a

time of conflict or war situation. (ibid)

42

It has also been argued that peace has many sides or images.

It is a multidimensional concept. The values of peace are

enhanced if conceptualized from its many images,

perspectives or view points. (ibid, pg3)

Structural View of Peace

The structural conception of peace assumes that the society

is an interdependent one, and each has a role, an

obligation, or indeed a function. Thus peace is a

collaborative activity that precedes the interplay of

functions by the rulers and the ruled, and institutional

structures. As a part of conflict or stress reduction, each

needs to play its part very well and progressively too, just

as the interplay of roles may be enhanced by timely and

accurate flow of information and /or communication for

stabilizing a system or society. Implicit in this view point

is that peace is an integrative process as well as an end

itself. As an end itself peace is understood not only as a

preferred desire for human existence and activity, but a

continuous process of desire against lines of anarchy,

tension, violence and war. (ibid, pg4). It is acknowledged that

economic prosperity, cooperation, and integration can only

prosper in an environment that is peaceful, stable, and

secure. Peace and security are therefore the pre-requisites

for a balanced economic development and advancement as they

largely determine the direction and place of economic and

43

political reforms in a country (ECOWAS protocol relating to

mechanism on conflict, 2002)

Political View of Peace

Peace by politics is contraction with states and between

states. Within a state, peace is maintained when both the

ruler and the ruled carry out their constitutional

political, social and economic roles. (Ibeanu, op.cit pg4).

According to the definition from the University of Peace, it

is a political condition that makes justice possible. As a

political order, peace entails that government minimally

employs the coercive apparatuses of the state, such as the

armed forces and the police, in dealing with citizens,

usually because there is no threat to the interests of the

ruling class by the underprivileged classes. Politically

peace can be seen as a contractual pact denoting that the

parties to the pact, especially nation states, mutually

respect and recognize each other. For instance the peace of

Westphalia which ended the thirty year war in Europe in 1648

marked the beginning of modern international order which has

remained relatively stable. (Conceptualizing peace)

2.2.5. Early Warning Analysis

44

Early warning systems are rooted in new ‘human security’

thinking about the expanding responsibility of the state to

protect its citizens and to make informed responses to their

needs. Prior to the development of conflict based early

warning systems, these process was widely applied for

weather and food forecasts as well as within non-

governmental sectors for humanitarian operations.

Ironically, it is this characteristic that makes early

warning systems appealing to intergovernmental organisations

such as the AU that would have great difficulty in accessing

(or using) state intelligence from one member country vis-à-

vis another member country. (Towards a Continental Early Warning

System for Africa, 2005). Dmitrichev Andrei defined Early Warning

is an essential component of prevention. Early Warning:

“Organizational procedure or mechanism for the structures

and systemic collection and analysis of information, and the

subsequent communication of results of this analysis to

policy makers in a form that would be easily recognized and

understood” (Davies et al, 1998). In other words, early

warning is about obtaining first-hand information and using

that information to inform planned interventions in the

mitigation of conflict. Early warning systems use open

source material and generally aim to serve human security,

not national or state interests. Eventually, early warning

is a precondition for timely response and, therefore, also

for the development of the political will to respond. It has

45

been established that in order to prevent conflict or

natural disasters an early warning system needs to be in

place as a first step. It is rather impossible to prevent

something from happening without having prior knowledge or

information. An early warning system does not by itself

automatically prevent conflict or natural disaster from

happening; it, however, provides vital information to act in

time in order to prevent or mitigate the consequences.

The first specific reference to the establishment of an

early warning system in Africa was at the level of the OAU

Heads of State which appeared in the Yaoundé Declaration of

1996 and followed a June 1995 OAU Council of Ministers

meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, that endorsed a proposal

submitted by then Secretary-General Salim Ahmed Salim for

the establishment of a continent-wide early warning system:

We welcome the creation in June 1993 of the OAU Mechanism for Conflict

Prevention, Management and Resolution which is already contributing

significantly towards improving the Organization’s capacity to prevent conflicts

and maintain peace in Africa; We hail in advance the imminent institution within

the said Mechanism of our early warning system (EWS) on conflict situations in

Africa, convinced that its establishment should be able to further improve the

action of the Organization in the area of preventive diplomacy by making it

possible, notably through pre-emptive action in gathering and analyzing

pertinent data, not only to establish the existence of a threat to the peace, but

46

also to look for a quick way to remove the threat. We exhort all potential data

collectors to communicate same information in time and provide the OAU

Mechanism regularly with any at their disposal on warning signs of imminent

conflict. (Yaonde Declaration, Africa: Preparing for the 21st century. 32nd OAU

summit, July 1996, Yaonde.)

Recent credence and support to an Early warning system was

provided by the former Secretary-General of the United

Nations, Kofi Annan when he stated that, “For the United Nations,

there is no larger goal, no deeper commitment and no greater ambition than

preventing armed conflict. The prevention of conflict begins and ends with the

protection of human life and the promotion of human development. Ensuring

human security is, in the broadest sense, the United Nations’ cardinal mission.

Genuine and lasting prevention is the means to achieve that mission” (Kofi

Annan, 2001)

From the above definitions, some basic features of early

warning are discernible. First, it is proactive, rather than

reactive strategy to peacebuilding. Its primary concern is

to prevent, and not to manage conflicts. It requires a great

deal of vigilance on the part of relevant actors to ensure

effective monitoring and adequate collection of data without

which forecasting may not be appropriate. It also requires

cordial links among all actors, an important variable in the

transmission of findings to the government and the populace.

Above all, timely and effective responses to the warnings is

47

imperative so that warnings will not end up becoming mere

prophesies of doom should they eventually occur owing to the

absence of warning-based intervention. The import here is

that a good early warning system rests largely on devising

adequate measuring instruments to avoid raising false

alarms. It also involves forming partnerships to ensure

timely delivery of data and appropriate remedial measures.

Early warning systems, therefore, encompass forecasting,

dissemination of warnings, preparedness measures and

reaction capacities. (Olarinde, 2010)

Goals of Early Warning

Early warning has the function to enhance three goals:

Prevention, Preparedness and Mitigation. In other words, it

seeks to identify the cause of a conflict, predict the

outbreak of a conflict and seek strategic actions to

mitigate its impact. A core working component of the system

is the raw data which is gathered and collated from various

means and diverse sources which analysis is done in order to

make an informed and considered evaluation and judgement of

the situation for possible action or recommendations. Early

Warning is practical and real. It is not based on

conceptions. This practical approach often affects

stakeholders who benefit from the conflict situation and

therefore, they threaten the lives of monitors or the work

of early warning and early response. Interests for gain or

48

benefits accruing for stakeholders in war situation have

been referred to as the economics of war.

Purpose of Early Warning

To enhance the ability of policy and decision makers to make

strategic decisions on the basis of improved knowledge of

the environment of operations, options available for

response or action and finally, the implications of each

decision or option made. The idea is not just to give flash

warnings, but more important is the analysis of the

situations in order to reduce the risk or tendency to make

ambiguous decisions in a constantly changing environment

Components of The Early Warning System

Three key components of an early warning system include:

a. Information Component

b. Analysis Component

c. Communication or Reporting Component.

a. Information Element: Identification of reliable

monitors/warners, identification of target groups, capacity

for continuous monitoring, information gathering process.

b. Analysis and Interpreting Element: A systematic assessment

of data based on a given scientific method or standard

49

guidelines with the goal of identifying and highlighting

critical issues. Of great importance is the capability to

foresee and assess a conflict situation before ‘the point of

no return’ is reached; understanding of the determinants of

the conflictual situation in a pluralistic setting; ability

to build on past experiences; capacity to assess a society’s

coping mechanisms-resilience

c. Action element: Generating Early Action or Response.

• Generating Report: Reports are follow up to data analysis.

There are various forms of reports. Reporting format is

influenced by data focus and analytical preference.

• Identification of the audience and end users

• Exchange or have local networks of multiple local monitors

For an Early Warning system to be effective it must make

information available for both local and international

response. It must also be consistent in providing resources

and be designed and institutionalized in such as way as to

mobilize routine official responses. It must provide

adequate information on specific crises situations where the

tensions are in evidence as well as be sustainable, credible

and reliable. Establishing a framework for Early Warning

and Early Response entails a systematic and collaborative

relationship between the State Institutions, policy makers

50

and civil society organizations. It is a gradual process,

sustainable with reliable grassroots structure committed to

the cause of peace. (Ayokunle Fagbemi et al. 2004).

Challenges of Early Warning and Early Response:

Societal exigencies often plague or debar the effective

application of Early Warning. The environmental factors

vary from country to country. The complexities of the

changing times suggest that analytical capacity alone is

insufficient to manage today’s problems. There is need to

gather and sort additional information more effectively. The

shifting needs of policy makers heavily influences

contemporary collection and analysis of intelligence by

state actors. Thus the defining paradigm for Early Warning

is hinged on the ability of civil society organizations and

policy makers to develop collaborative approach in dealing

with pertinent obstacles or barriers to peace and human

security in any given society. These obstacles include the

following:

a. Strategic Deception: A situation where there has been a

deliberate systematic effort to obscure the facts to achieve

self interest. This becomes glaring with deliberate bias by

the conflict monitors or analysts which affects the

objectivity of the report or the partisanship by policy

makers in a bid to satisfy their political or other personal

51

interests, which creates doubts and corrupts the process. It

is important that early warners and responders are not cut

in the trap of deception.

b. Conventional Concealment: It is a process of concealing the

truth in order to protect the state. Such concealment

presupposes that in special circumstances, the interests of

the state overrides any impact the release or announcement

of any information can achieve. Such information is termed

as classified and therefore limits the amount of facts

gathered and level of intervention possible.

c. Institutional/Individual Ignorance: This is a situation

where an Early Warner lacks the requisite skills for

effective monitoring and analysis. At the level of the

institution, it is the poor capacity of an institution to

provide an updated database necessary for warning.

d. Reflexive Reaction: These are arbitrary decisions made by

policy makers which creates sharp turn of events or

situations under analysis.

e. Exogenous Shifts: Early Warning must be cautious of shadow

influence or outside control which greatly affects the

direction or dimension of a conflict situation. (Schodt and

Greener, 1998)

2.2.6. Role of Civil Society in Peace and Security

52

Zuern defines civil society as public sphere between the

household and the state. This social space encompasses a

very broad range of human associations with very different

interests and objectives”. (Zuern,2000)

The London School of Economics centre for Civil Society

defines it as, “The set of institutions, organizations and behavior situated

between the state, the business world, and the family. Specifically, this includes

voluntary, and non-profit organizations of many different kinds, philanthropic

institutions, social institutions and political movements, other forms of social

participation and engagement and the values and cultural patterns associated

with them.( Responding to conflicts, 2009). Civil society should be seen

as constituting the total of civic and social organizations

or institutions that form the bedrock of a functioning

democracy. Civil society advocates and takes action

primarily for social development and public interest. (ibid

pg 2)

Types of Civil Societies

Examples of civil society institutions include non-

governmental organizations (NGOS), Private voluntary

Organizations (PVOs), people’s organization, community-based

organizations, civic clubs, trade unions, gender

organizations, cultural and religious groups, charities,

social and sports clubs, cooperatives, environmental groups,

53

professional organizations, the media, citizens’ militia and

organized religion. (ibid pg2)

Civil Society Organizations have emerged as an indispensable

partner in Peacebuilding. They have complemented the efforts

of governments, the international communities and other

stake holders by sensitizing the masses about the effects of

war and the need for peace and reconciliation. They have

also been in the forefront of building broken relations,

especially in the crucial phase of post-conflict

reconstruction and reconciliation, and in bringing waring

parties to table.

Problems and Challenges of Civil Society

Even with its achievements civil societies are faced with a

lot of challenges. The very definition of what civil society

constitutes is a major challenge. Critics of civil society

often question the moral authority of civil society to lead

and claim representation for the ‘voiceless’ in their

communities since they were not elected or actively involved

in the administrative operations of these organizations. In

addition, civil society organizations sometimes engage in

unhealthy competition quite often for access to resources

and for promoting their different agenda. This has

contributed to the fragmentation of civil society to the

extent that they rarely undertake collective actions

54

The unwillingness of governments to create space for civil

society in the governance of the country is a huge challenge

that civil society would have to contend with. Quite often

civil societies find it difficult to access information

crucial for their advocacy work. (op cit.)

This study will focus on specific arm of Civil Society

Organisation referred to as Non Governmental Organizations

(NGOs) that are involved in the field of peacebuilding and

conflict prevention. NGOs according to Weiss refers to

“formal institutions that are intended to continue in existence…and are not… ad

hoc entities. They are or aspire to be self-governing on the basis of their own

constitutional arrangements. They are private in that they are separate from

governments…. They operate beyond and beneath the states in which they are

incorporated”. (Weiss, 1996)

The NGO used for the scope of this study is the West Africa

Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP). WANEP stands out as the

leading conflict prevention and peacebuilding organization

in West Africa. They have also established viable

peacebuilding networks in most of the West African Countries

and based on their expertise and capacity in the field of

early warning, they recently signed a Memorandum Of

Understanding with ECOWAS to develop and operationalise

early warning system otherwise referred to as ECOWARN as

55

supported by the ECOWAS protocol for Conflict Prevention,

Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping and Security of 1999.

ECOWAS sees in civil society viable partners in the

promotion of its peace, security, regional integration and

development agendas and can as well play a critical role in

complementing inter-governmental organisations and other

institutions in conflicts prevention and peacebuilding.

ECOWAS sees in civil society viable partners in the

promotion of peace, security, regional integration and

development agendas and calls on the international community

and all stakeholders to work collaboratively in support of

this process. There is general agreement on the critical

role that CSOs can play in complementing inter-governmental

organisations and other institutions in conflicts prevention

and peacebuilding. Their grassroot orientations and reach

places them in a strategic position to help complement the

work of IGOs like ECOWAS and to help create awareness and

sensitize the masses on the issues of concern. (ibid)

2.2.7. About WANEP

The West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) is a

leading regional peacebuilding organization founded in 1998

in response to civil wars that plagued West Africa in the

1990s. Over the years, WANEP has succeeded in establishing

strong national networks in every Member State of ECOWAS

with over 500 member organizations across West Africa. The

56

network has been in the forefront of peace advocacy and the

promotion of Track two diplomacy as an approach to

peacebuilding in West Africa. (Ibid). WANEP places special

focus on collaborative approaches to conflict prevention and

peacebuilding working with diverse actors from civil

society, governments, intergovernmental bodies, women groups

and other partners in a bid to establish a platform for

dialogue, experience sharing and learning, thereby

complementing efforts at ensuring sustainable peace and

development in West Africa and beyond.

Among its various laudable programs, WANEP has a unique and

core expertise in the area of conflict based early warning.

This has been anchored through the West Africa Response

Network, otherwise referred to as WARN. It basically has to

do with preventing the likelihood of violent conflicts or

preventing the possibility of a resurgence or escalation of

violence and identifying the windows of opportunities for

peace. (Doe and Suifon, 2003). This program was

conceptualized and established as one of the cardinal

projects of WANEP in 2000, with technical support from the

then global network of early warning experts and

oganisations based in London. The main goal of WARN is to

develop an effective and workable early warning and conflict

management system that is capable of producing demonstrable

57

results in managing, mitigating and preventing violent

conflict in West Africa. (Olarinde, 2010)

WANEP and ECOWAS partnership:

In 2002 WANEP entered into a historic partnership with the

Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) an inter-

governmental structure in the implementation of a regional

early warning and response system (ECOWARN). A Memorandum of

Understanding between WANEP and ECOWAS was signed in 2004

for five years, and has since been renewed for another 5

years. This partnership constitutes a major strategic

achievement for WANEP and West Africa civil society as it

offers the much desired opportunity to contribute to Track 1

response to conflict and policy debates. At the continental

level, WANEP is a member of the Peace and Security Cluster

of the African Union’s (AU) Economic, Social and Cultural

Council (ECOSOCC) representing West Africa. At the

international level, WANEP has a Special Consultative Status

with the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC)

and is the West Africa Regional Representative of the Global

Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC).

2.2.8. The National Early Warning System (N.E.W.S.) of WANEP

Though WANEP through its national networks already have

local Peacebuilding organisations that constitute the core

of the Network in each country, the lack of nationally

58

functional early warning systems limits the level of

holistic data reported into the ECOWAS early warning system

(ECOWARN) and invariably the level of analysis developed and

utilised for response in the sub region. In each country, a

WANEP early warning reporter is burdened with the task of

regular monitoring of entire regions, counties and provinces

in a country and therefore is constrained to provide

inadequate coverage and report to issues within their

country. This remained a herculean challenge for the

effectiveness of early warning. In addition, a growing need

arose about the necessity of contextualizing the indicators

used for monitoring and analyses to national contexts so as

to provide complimentary and additional support for National

Network/Government partnership in addressing peace and human

security issues in each country.

WANEP networks in Nigeria and Ghana began from 2007 a series

of creative approaches to overcome the challenge of

providing adequate data and raising local content for its

analyses and response with various actors within their

countries. WANEP-Nigeria led in this effort. The first trial

system was developed for the Nigeria 2007 elections. An

Information, Communication and Technology (I.C.T.)

consultant was engaged that worked directly with the

national technical team of the Network to capture specific

indicators to monitor the general elections which brought

59

the late President Musa Ya’adua to Power. The entire system

was captioned, ‘election barometer’. The system provided

data for the analyses and publication of two policy briefs

on the elections of that year by WANEP-Nigeria with quality

assurance and control from the regional office.

In the same vein, the WANEP network at Ghana began the

design and develop of an indigenous early warning monitoring

and analysis tool at the northern region of Ghana which

provided timely alerts and risk patterns to security agents

and other relevant actors to make informed response to the

fledging chieftaincy conflicts prevalent in that region.

Their commitment to the system as well as the relevance and

credibility of the reports improved the trust and

cooperation of the agencies of government on the importance

of the system to peace and security.

The capacity of WANEP-Nigeria and Ghana for the early

warning system has since evolved over the years and has

gained credible, relevance and impact. Its data collection,

analysis and communication under its early warning system

has further improved its conflict monitoring to forge a

credible bridge for assessment, analysis and information

distribution to relevant stakeholders and preventive

mechanisms against humanitarian crises and conflicts. The

Early warning system has enabled the Network develop

60

reliable baseline data on human security threats in Nigeria

and Ghana. Information Communication Technology (ICT) is

used to generate a warning system that facilitates the

provision of information to government and nongovernmental

organisations to intervene in emerging issues of peace and

security in flash point communities. In that way, a chain

of response mechanisms is initiated towards effective

conflict prevention, management and transformation. The data

submitted into an online system by monitors across the

states and region is analyzed at the national level and

disseminated to critical stakeholders for informed decision

making process in addressing identified risks. Despite the

novelty of the early warning systems in Ghana and Nigeria,

scientific design viability and cost effectiveness of the

WANEP-Nigeria early warning system, led to the adoption of

the system by the WANEP regional network as the standard

platform for the development and operationalisation of the

National Early Warning System, otherwise referred to as

N.E.W.S. across its national networks in the West Africa sub

region. The system therefore provide the focal point with a

clearer understanding on the dimensions, trends, dynamics

and connectors of conflicts in local communities towards a

better national reporting of prevalent risk factors in the

country. The development and operations of the National

Early Warning system has provided the window of

understanding and monitoring of local drivers of violent

61

conflicts. The advantage of NEWS is that it is a step down

of the broader ‘ECOWARN’ system to the regions and States

and forms a tripartite bridge for communication and response

from the grassroots through the regional to the sub regional

level. (WANEP Early Warning Concept Paper)

Based on the WANEP-Nigeria example, the viability, cost

effectiveness and real time impact of NEWS supports the need

to expand the pilot initiative of Nigeria to all the WANEP

Networks in the sub region. This will enhance the

information, strength and potency of the ECOWARN system as

it will truly reflect a sub regional assessment platform

which derives its functionality and effectiveness from

community based, national and sub regional based early

warning reporting. In that way a sub regional system with

various levels of response and impact will be achieved for

sustainable peace, security and development of the sub

region.

In the words of Emmanuel Bombande, he captured the

operationalisation of the National Early Warning system

thus, “Early warning basically became a science in itself. It is based on the

notion that if we are able to anticipate, predict, we can already begin to act

proactively and prevent. So the early warning is trying to be the proactive

programme of WANEP that is already researching and anticipating what are the

likely conflicts and informing us about what we must do. And what we must do is

62

not WANEP’s alone. It is for WANEP, academics, government, policy makers, to

say hey, this is what we are seeing in ...let’s not wait for two year (sic) before we

act because in two years it would be late. Let’s begin it now”. (Bombande,

2006).

Outputs of N.E.W.S.

These include

a. Weekly Highlights

b. Monthly Bulletins

c. Policy Briefs

d. Situation Tracking

e. Annual Risk Index

f. Press Releases

a. Weekly Highlights is a weekly report from the National Early

Warning System that document prioritised incidences critical

to peace and security. It identifies and captures incidences

that have further implications or threat to security or

opportunities for peace across national networks of WANEP.

The highlights are categorised and subsumed under four basic

thematic areas of Humanitarian, Political, socio-economic

and Environmental risks. It is generated from the incidence

reports from data uploaded by early warning monitors.

63

Additional information is derived from media reports and

primary observation.

b. Monthly Bulletin is a monthly publication from NEWS that

presents a brief graphic analysis and description of highest

proximate conditions emerging from its early warning

reports. These reports are derived from the Network’s online

EW system which facilitates the generation of data from

monitors and reporters. The bulletin reflects data from

incidence and situation reports of the EW system.

c. Policy Brief is a strong policy advocacy tool which analyses

issues, identifies causes, accelerating and intervening

factors, the possible scenarios with goal to enhance the

ability of policy and decision makers to make strategic

decisions on the basis of improved knowledge of the

environment of operations, options available for response or

action and finally, the implication of each decision or

option made.

d. Situation Tracking is a NEWS output that tracks government’s

and other actors’ response to conflicts or threats to human

security in order to highlight the emerging issues and gaps

in the response. It provides recommendations for better and

more appropriate and effective intervention.

64

e. Annual Risk Index comprise of data submitted into the NEWS

platform for a period of one year which is interpreted with

the help of a statistician into graphs and figures to

clearly highlight the trend and progression of proximate

condition of conflict and human security in the West Africa

sub region. Comparing the situation in different regions per

issue to see the underlying factors that made an area less

prone to conflict and security threats.

Basic Structure of NEWS

The National Early Warning System is basically an online

platform divided into two major components comprising of

Incidence template and the situation template. The incidence

template consist of basic reporting guidelines for violent

conflicts or threats to human security in a given

environment or community. The situation template on the

other hand consists of 116 indicators subsumed under 12

broad categories that track the progression of proximate

conditions exacerbating the likelihood of conflict or threat

to human security. These include Agriculture, Technology and

Pollution, Conflict, Gender, Cultural, Humanitarian,

Political, Security and others. It has intervening factors

that de-escalates conflict progression. (Ifeanyi Okechukwu

et al, 2012)

65

Operational Chart of the National Early Warning System of WANEP-Nigeria

66CDD CDD CDD

State EW ReporterState Actors WIPNET FocalPerson

WSN WSN WSNCHA

Zonal Analysts WANEP ZonalCoordinators

StateCoordinat

SHA

Regional Actors

WANEP Project TeamState Actors I/NHA

EWS

EWS

Data

Data

Data

Data

Data

Data

Data

ECOWASNigerian Government

Policies

ECOWARN

CHA

Ver

Ve

Acronyms:

CDD Community Development Department SHA State Humanitarian Actors

CHA Community Humanitarian Actors WIPNET Women in Peacebuilding

ECOWARN ECOWAS Warning and Response Network WSN WIPNET Social Networks

EWS Early Warning System Ve Verification

I/NHA International and National Humanitarian Actors

Operational Structure of the sub regional National Early Warning

System of

WANEP

67

Proximate Conditions

Ve

CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY

68

This chapter addresses the methodological framework within which

this study was undertaken. It focuses on the explanation of

research techniques and procedures adopted in data collection.

Steps followed in processing the data collected will also be

presented.

3.1. Instrument Used for Data Collection

This study is based on both primary and secondary data

sources. The primary data comprised of semi structured

questionnaire and oral interviews which is designed to

elicit specific responses from the responders. This set

of primary source has been referred to as researcher

provoked data (Silverman 2006). The researcher provoked

data essentially is created by the researcher to elicit

responses in pre determined set of directions in order

to establish validity or otherwise of the research. It

is effectively combined with opportunities for open

complimentary responses that further probes the

responder to provide additional information for clearer

analysis of the research. In addition secondary data

sources were used which comprised of publications and

documentation relating to the subject matter derived

from books, journals, articles, newspapers, unpublished

documents as well as internet publications. A

combination of this methodology highlights the

Descriptive and Exploratory methods of research.

69

Descriptive Research: The research approach was

primarily comprised of Descriptive and Exploratory

research method. In the use of descriptive research

methodology, it does not fit neatly into the definition

of either quantitative or qualitative research

methodologies, but instead it can utilize the elements

of both, often within the same study. It refers to the

type of research question, design and data analysis

that will be applied to a given topic. It can involve

collections of quantitative information that can be

tabulated along a continuum in numerical form or it can

describe categories of information or patterns of

interaction when using technology in a group situation.

Descriptive research involves gathering data that

describe events and then organizes, tabulates, depicts

and describes the data collection (Glass and Hopkins,

1984). It often uses visual aids such as graphs and

charts to aid the reader in understanding the data

distribution. Because the human mind cannot extract the

full import of a large mass of raw data, descriptive

statistics are very important in reducing the data to

manageable form. When in-depth, narrative descriptions

of small numbers of cases are involved, the research

uses description as a tool to organize data into

patterns that emerge during analysis. Those patterns

70

aid the mind in comprehending a qualitative study and

its importance. (AECT, 2001)

Exploratory Research: It is a type of research

conducted for a problem that has not been clearly

defined. It allows the researcher familiarize

him/herself with the problem or concept to be studied,

and perhaps generate hypotheses to be tested. It is the

initial research, before more conclusive research is

undertaken. (www.htm.uoguelph.ca). It helps to

determine the best research design, data collection

method and selection of subjects. Using the exploratory

method it is easier to identify subjects for research.

This method is good for research involving secondary

research such as reviewing available literature and/or

data, or qualitative approaches such as informal

discussions, and more formal approaches through in-

depth interviews, focus groups, projective methods,

case studies or pilot studies. The internet allows for

research methods that are more interactive in nature.

3.2. Population Size using Purposive Sampling Technique

The population size has been predetermined using

purposive sampling technique. It is defined as an

informant selection tool. It is also referred to as

judgment sampling because it makes deliberate choice of

71

http://www.htm.uoguelph.ca/

respondents due to the qualities they posses. It is a

non random technique that does not need underlying

theories or a set of number of respondents. Simply put,

the researcher decides what needs to be known and sets

out to find people who can and are willing to provide

information by virtue of knowledge or experience

(Bernard 2002, Lewis and Sheppard, 2006). This

technique is relevant for the research under study

based on its unique technicalities and required

expertise. A total of 80 predetermined respondents were

selected for the primary data collection. The number

was distributed 50 respondents for Nigeria and 30

respondents for Ghana. The respondents are divided into

three major categories reflecting the operational

structure of the National Early Warning System of

WANEP. These include early warning monitors, analysts

and responders. While the monitors and analysts are

majorly comprised of staff and personnel of WANEP

member organizations in the Nigeria and Ghana, the

respondents are majorly affiliates or partners of WANEP

who receive outputs and information from the early

warning system to make informed responses to issues of

peace and security in the countries under study. These

responders are further sub divided into government and

civil society actors.

72

3.3. Data Analysis using simple percentage Statistics

The data will be analysed using simple percentage which

will be presented graphically using pie charts with

corresponding legends for explanation. The analysis

will highlight the output from the primary research

questions so as determine similarities, differences,

strengths, weaknesses and opportunities inherent in the

early warning systems of Nigeria and Ghana. It will

validate or oppose the process of monitoring, analysis

and communication of the set of indicators in the early

warning system in relation to the proximate conditions

contributing to human security and peace for the

countries under study. The percentage is calculated as

n/p x 100/1 where n represents the specific number of

respondent for a specific data analysis and p the

total number of respondents for a given country.

3.4. Limitation of the Study

1. The inability of the researcher to meet most of the

respondent physically due to the geographical spread

and location of respondents.

73

2. The questionnaire was distributed and received

online from the respondents.

3. Inability of the researcher to collect all the

questionnaires distributed despite efforts exerted

for respondents to return the questionnaires. Out of

a total number of 80 questionnaires distributed

which comprised of 50 for Nigeria and 30 for Ghana,

only 38 (76%) for Nigeria and 19(63%) for Ghana was

returned and analysed. This represents a total

cumulative of 57(71.25%) questionnaires returned and

analysed. The uneven distribution of the

questionnaires is a consequence of the significant

operational size difference of the National Early

Warning System of Ghana and Nigeria. While Ghana’s

system focussed its operations mainly in the

Northern region of Ghana, Nigeria’s system covered

the entire 36 states of Nigeria including the

Federal Capital Territory.

4. The researcher limited himself to the responders who

are already familiar with the system and therefore

did not explore the possibility of engaging

respondents outside the communication zone of WANEP

74

CHAPTER 4: COMPARATIVE STUDY AND ANALYSIS OF WANEP NEWS

BETWEEN GHANA AND NIGERIA

4.1. Demographic Profile of Respondents

4.1.1. Category Distribution of Respondents for Ghana and

Nigeria

The category of distribution of respondents varied from Nigeria

and Ghana as table 1 Represents

Table 1: Distributive Percentage of Returned Questionnaires

According to Categories.

Country Monitors Analysts Responders

Nigeria 68.44% 15.78% 15.78%

Ghana 31.6% 31.6% 36.8%

75

While Nigeria had 68.44% of respondents comprising monitors who

were analysed, Ghana had 31.6% lower respondents from the

monitors who returned their questionnaires. This was reversed in

the number of analysts in relation to the scope and size of

coverage of analysis as Ghana and Nigeria had significant

percentage differences of 31.6% and 15.78% respectively.

Respondents to the early warning system were significantly higher

for Ghana than Nigeria representing a percentage difference of

36.8% and 15.78% respectively.

76

68.44%

15.78%

15.78%

36.8%

31.6%

31.6%

Table 2: Distributive Percentage of Areas of Capacity of

Respondents

Country NGOs Govt. Agencies Other Actors

Nigeria 84.21% 10.52% 5.27%

Ghana 63.15% 31.59% 5.26%

The table clearly shows a significant percentage of Non

Governmental Organisations (NGOs) who are active participants in

the Nigeria early warning system with 84.21% in contrast to Ghana

with 63.15%. This validates the commitment and participation of

WANEP member organisations of Nigeria and Ghana in the National

Early Warning System. Government Agencies involved in the early

warning system is significantly low for Nigeria at 10.52%

compared to Ghana at 31.59%. Other actors who specifically

represent those who receive outputs from the system but not

necessarily active participants have percentages of 5.26% and

5.27% for Ghana and Nigeria respectively.

77

4.2. Comparative Analysis of Security/Proximate Conditions in

Ghana and Nigeria

The research survey tried to analyse and compare the level

of security risk factors or what is referred to as proximate

conditions that threaten peace and security in Nigeria and

Ghana. The questionnaire provided opportunity for the

respondents to link the threats already identified in the

literature review with current prevalent security risk

factors for Ghana and Nigeria.

78

Nig. NGOs 84.21%

Gh.NGO 63.15%

Gh.Govt 31.59%

Nig.Govt. 10.52%Nig.O.A.

5.27%

Gh.O.A 5.26%

Table 3: Distributive Percentage of Security Risks for Ghana and

Nigeria

Country Religio

n

Ethnic Politic

al

Resourc

e

Corrupti

on

Economi

c

Cultur

al

Nigeria 73.68% 57.89% 47.36% 47.36% 15.78% 21% 0%

Ghana 15.78% 68.42 57.89% 31.57% 68.42% 15.78% 31.57%

Based on the table distribution, religion and ethnicity play key

roles in the exacerbation of risk factors that threaten peace and

security in Nigeria. Ethnicity is also a strong factor in Ghana

which is linked to the ongoing dimensions of conflicts

experienced in the northern region of Ghana. However, religion

does not play any significant role in insecurity at Ghana.

Corruption and Politics were also identified as critical risk

factors in Ghana with a percentage distribution of 68.42% and

57.89%. The significance of this is typified in their power play

and political interest that shape party loyalty and dichotomy

between the northern and southern Ghana. Ethnic interests,

competition and identity presently play strong roles in the

political system of Ghana. In Nigeria, the relationship between

ethnicity and religion has constantly been highlighted as has

already been discussed in the literature review. Threats of

limitation to resources constitute a major threat in Nigeria at

79

47.56% while culture plays a significant risk factor for Ghana at

31.57%.

80

81

15.78

68.42%

57.89%

31.57%

68.42%

15.78%

31.57%

47.36%

57.89%47.36%

73.68%

15.78%

21%

Table 4: Distributive Percentage of Responses to the

Availability of Adequate Information on

Emerging Threats to Peace and Security in Ghana and

Nigeria

Country Yes No Don’t Know

Nigeria 94.7% 5.3% 0%

Ghana 78.9% 21.1% 0%

There was a significant agreement by the respondents of

limited comprehensive information or data that provides

enlightenment, appreciation and action for response on

threats to peace and security in Ghana and Nigeria. This is

represented by the the percentage of 94.7% and 78.9% for

Nigeria and Ghana respectively. This is an aggregate

representation of all the categories of respondents

comprising civil society and government actors analysed. It

shows a significant collective interest and concern from

both state and non state actors for effective, comprehensive

data available for informed decision making and intervention

to peace and security and also an indication of the dearth

of proper data management and analysis in Ghana and Nigeria.

82

4.3 Knowledge of the WANEP National Early Warning System

There was 100% awareness by the respondents about the

National Early Warning System of WANEP at Ghana and Nigeria

as shown in Table 5. Also a 100% involvment in the system

was also recorded for all the categories of respondents of

having certain roles they play in the WANEP early warning

system as shown inTable 6. Since these respondents cut

across diverse actors from regions, states and national

level. It can be safe to state that the National Early

Warning is significantly known to critical state and non

actors in the two countries.

83

94.7%

78.9

21.1%5.3%

Table 5: Distributive Percentage of Awareness of N.E.W.S. by

Respondents in Ghana and Nigeria.


Nigeria 100% 0% 0%

Ghana 100% 0% 0%

Table 6: Distributive Percentage of Involvement in N.E.W.S.

by Respondents in Ghana and Nigeria.


Nigeria 100% 0% 0%

Ghana 100% 0% 0%

Table 7: Distributive Percentage of the Feedback process

from N.E.W.S. in Ghana and Nigeria

Country Yes No Not Sure

Nigeria 94.7% 0% 5.2%

Ghana 100% 0% 0%

In terms of feedback process from the National Early Warning

system, there was varying agreement of communication and

correspondence between Ghana and Nigeria. While Ghana showed

a 100% indication of a feedback process, Nigeria had a 94.7%

agreement. Specifically, 5.3% of the respondents who

constitute responders or actors who intervene in conflicts

84

and security threats have concerns over the communication

and feedback process from N.E.W.S in Nigeria.

Table 7: Distributive Percentage of the output received by

Respondents from the WANEP NEWS in Ghana and Nigeria

Countr

y

Weekly

Highlights

Monthl

y

Bullet

in

Policy

Brief

Annual

Risk

Index

Press

Releases

Situation

Tracking

Nigeri

a

100% 68.4% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Ghana 15.7% 84.2% 68.4% 0% 57.8% 0%

85

94.7%

5.3%

The table further highlights the categories of outputs used as

feedbacks and communication between the WANEP NEWS structure and

all actors involved in the process of reporting, analysis and

response. Nigeria NEWS shows a 100% feedback on the weekly

highlights and a 68.4% feedback on the monthly bulletins while

other outputs are not received by the various stakeholders in the

system. This is in contrast to the Ghana NEWS where the feedback

from the weekly highlights is low with 15.7% but records 84.2%

high on monthly bulletins and a significant 68.4% on policy

briefs. Additional 57.8% was recorded for press releases while

Annual risk index and situation tracking was 0%. This point to a

significant interaction within the Ghana Early Warning system

than the Nigerian system despite the relative advantage the

Nigerian NEWS has over the Ghana system.

86

100%

68.4%

Table 8: Distributive Percentage of the Effectiveness of

N.E.W.S. by Respondents to Peace and Security in Ghana and

Nigeria.

Country Very

Effective

Fairly

Effective

Not Effective Indifferent

Nigeria 47.3% 47.3% 0% 5.4%

Ghana 31.4% 68.6% 0% 0%

Percentage distribution process for Nigeria as shown in Table 8

points to 47.3% for ‘very effective’and ‘effectiviness’on NEWS.

This percentage can be analysed to represent an average impact of

the Nigeria NEWS to peace and Security. In contrast to Ghana, a

87

84.2%

68.4%

57.8%

84.2%

low percentage of the respondents with 31.4% agreed that the NEWS

is very effective with a signficant percentage agreeing that it

is Fairly Effective with 68.6%. A low percentage of the

respondents from Nigeria stated that they were indifferent to the

effectiveness of the system at 5.4%.

88

31.4%

68.6%

Table 9: Distributive Percentage of the Challenges of

N.E.W.S. by Respondents in Ghana and Nigeria.

Country Weak

Response

Poor Reporting Poor

Communication

Poor Funding

Nigeria 36.8% 52.6% 26.3% 5.2%

Ghana 52.6% 31.5% 21% 10.5%

Despite recording significant percentage in feedback from NEWS as

shown in Table 7, Ghana respondents stated that weak response is

a challenge for the effectiveness of the system in the country

with 52.6%. This is in contrast to the Nigeria respondents who

agree that poor reporting is the greatest challenge to NEWS in

89

47.3%47.3%

5.4%

the country with 52.6%. 31.5% of the respondents in Ghana also

pointed at poor reporting as a contributory factor to the

effectiveness of NEWS while poor communication recorded 26.3% and

21% for Nigeria and Ghana respectively. Poor funding of the NEWS

was identified as a challenge by the respondents from Ghana and

Nigeria even though the percentage was low at 10.5% and 5.2%

respectively.

90

52.6%

36.8%26.3%

5.2%

91

10.5%

52.6%

31.5%

21%

CHAPTER 5: SUMMARY/RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION

5.1. Summary of Findings

Based on the analysis of the survey the following conclusion

was derived:

Religion and ethnicity remain a core threat to sustainable

peace and security in Nigeria while ethnicity and corruption

play significant role in conflict and insecurity in Ghana.

There is a dearth of functional data and analysis to support

informed decision making and collaborative action between

State and Non State actors for peace security in Ghana and

Nigeria.

National Early Warning system is an important platform for

proactive mitigation of conflict and insecurity in Ghana and

Nigeria.

The structure of the National Early Warning system operated

by WANEP is a significant step towards organized civil

society/government partnership for peace and security in

Ghana and Nigeria.

Despite the operationalisation of the NEWS in the countries

under study significant effort and commitment is needed to

ensure its effectiveness and impact to peace and security.

92

That WANEP needs to improve its public enlightenment and

sensitization to deepen appreciation and inclusive

participation of state and non state actors in the National

Early Warning System of Ghana and Nigeria.

WANEP needs to expand stakeholder involvement and

contribution to the sustainability and impact of the

National Early Warning System in Ghana and Nigeria.

That despite the enormous potentials of National Early

Warning system, there are limited outputs emerging from the

system that is communicated to various stakeholders

especially in Nigeria which limits awareness and interest

from State actors. This is in contrast to Ghana that is

already making efforts to communicate various outputs of the

system to various stakeholders.

That reporting, communication and funding are significant

factors to the success of the National Early Warning System

of Ghana and Nigeria.

5.2. Recommendations

Based on the survey, the following recommendations were made

for the improvement and impact of NEWS in Ghana and

Nigeria.

93

Early Warning has been said to be counterproductive without

early response. It is therefore crucial that the analysis

and outputs from the system are matched with committed and

timely response. The WANEP NEWS should develop its

monitoring and response tracking platform that measures the

levels of actions taken by collaborating state and non

actor’s response to information disseminated in Ghana and

Nigeria.

The system should develop a mechanism to respond to short

and medium threats to peace and security in Ghana and

Nigeria.

More financial motivation for monitors need to be considered

by WANEP to enhance reporting in NEWS

WANEP should go beyond its members and expand the space in

NEWS to accommodate other CSOs who can contribute relevant

information for comprehensive analysis in the system.

WANEP needs to upgrade ICT equipment necessary for reporting

and analysis to enhance accuracy of reports and analysis

The process of engagement with state actors need to be

reviewed by WANEP so that policy makers have more access to

NEWS products to make informed policies for peace and

security in Ghana and Nigeria.

Capacity building and retraining of monitors and reporters

should be regular to enhance effective data gathering.

94

Increase frequency of networking and collaboration meetings,

monitoring and evaluation of application between

participating state actors and WANEP CSOs in the use of

information from NEWS

5.3. Conclusion:

Early Warning is an essential key to anticipating and

preventing violent conflict. Early action is impossible

without early warning. Early Warning must be grounded on the

reality of conflict dynamics in the field and serve as basis

for decision making and early and effective action.(Lucia

Montanaro and Julia Schunemann, 2011). Both scholars and

practitioners often maintain that early warning is not the

problem. The information is always there and simply not

reacted to. Information, however, is not the same as

analysis and analysis does not automatically imply response.

(International Studies Association Conference, 2007). It is

therefore important that the National Early Warning System

seeks sustainable ways of linking with various state and non

state actors that respond in diverse ways to issues of peace

and security in order to remain relevant. Ensuring the

success of this platform will depend on how it engages multi

stakeholders across communities and sectors in Ghana and

Nigeria to make informed responses to recurring

destabilizing conflicts using peculiar local capacities and

95

resilience for the prevention and mitigation of emerging

threats. It will require inclusive participation and clear

role delineation in line with identified capacities for

monitoring, analysis and response. Relevant government

agencies are key to this process as they have statutory

responsibility to play critical roles in the protection of

lives and livelihood. The system will provide them with

additional skills for analyzing and responding to trends and

patterns of conflicts, conflict mapping and proactive

support to vulnerable communities so that their interaction

and interventions mitigates insecurity and remains sensitive

to local peculiarities and efforts. Mutual cooperation for

human security between WANEP , State and relevant non state

actors leads to self sustaining networking system that

compliments peacebuilding efforts and security of lives in

communities across the two countries.

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INTERNET MATERIALS

http://www.humansecurity-chs.org/finalreport/Outlines/

outline.pdf

http://www.humansecurityreport.info/HSR2005_HTML/What_is_HS/index.htm

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/

2000/20000508.sgsm7382.doc.html101



http://www.humansecurityreport.info/HSR2005_HTML/What_is_HS/index.htm


APPENDIX: SURVERY QUESTIONNAIRE

Dear Respondent,

My name is Ifeanyi Okechukwu, a post graduate student of peace

and conflict studies at the University of Ibadan, Nigeria. I am

currently conducting the research for my project titled, “The

Impact of WANEP Early Warning System for Peace and Security in

Nigeria and Ghana”. My respondents are the Early Warning

Monitors, analysts and stakeholders who receive outputs from the

EW system.

As you fall within the above mentioned category, I will

appreciate if you can spare few minutes to kindly respond to the

following questions to enable me conclude my research.

Thank you in anticipation of a favourable response.

Name of Respondent

(optional):______________________________________________________

102

Organization:

_________________________________________________________________

____

1. In your view what are the major issues that drive conflict

in Nigeria. (Pls tick the relevant box(es)

(a) Religious (b) Ethnic (c) Political

(d) Resource (e) Corruption (f) Economic

(g) Cultural (f) Others(Pls Specify)

____________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________

_______________________

2. How is your organization/institution involved in responding

to issues of conflict in Nigeria

____________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________

_______________________

3. Do you believe that gap exist in availability of

comprehensive information and analysis of emerging threats

to peace and security in your country

(a) Yes (b) No (c) Don’t Know

(d) Any other Comment

____________________________________________________

4. If No what are your reasons?

________________________________________________

103

5. Have you heard of WANEP National Early Warning System

(a) Yes (b) No (c) Not Sure

6. Do you play any Role in the WANEP National EW System

(a) Yes (b) No (c) Not sure

7. If yes, kindly define your role

____________________________________________________________

_____

8. Do you receive any feedback or information from the WANEP

Early Warning System?

(a) Yes (b) No (c) Not Sure

9. If yes, what sort of information/feedback do you receive?

(a) Weekly highlights (b) Monthly bulletin (c) Policy

Brief (d) Situation Tracking

(e) Annual Risk Index (f) Press Releases (g) Any other

(Pls specify)

____________________________________________________________

____________

10. How is effective is the WANEP National Early Warning

System to Peace and Security to Peace and Security in

Nigeria?

(a) Very Effective (b) Fairly Effective (c) Not

Effective (d) Indifferent

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(e) Any additional comments?

____________________________________________________________

_____

11. What are the challenges noticed from the National Early

Warning System

(a) Weak Response (b) Poor Reporting (c) Poor Communication

(d) Poor Funding (e) Any Other (Pls Specify)

______________________________________________________________

_____________

______________________________________________________________

_____________

12. What additional roles would you or your organization

wish to perform in the WANEP National Early Warning System?

____________________________________________________________

____

______________________________________________________________

_____________

13. What are your suggestions for improvement to the

N.E.W.S? __________________

______________________________________________________________

_____________

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The Impact of National Early Warning Systems (NEWS) of WANEP on Peace and Security in Nigeria and Ghana

Documents