Maria Grazia Pia, INFN Genova The impact of Monte Carlo simulation: a scientometric analysis of scholarly literature Maria Grazia Pia INFN Genova, Italy Maria Grazia Pia 1 , Tullio Basaglia 2 , Zane W. Bell 3 , Paul V. Dressendorfer 4 1 INFN Sezione di Genova, Italy – 2 CERN, Switzerland – 3 ORNL, USA – 4 IEEE, USA SNA + MC 2010 Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2010
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The impact of Monte Carlo simulation: a scientometric analysis of scholarly literature
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Maria Grazia Pia, INFN Genova
The impact of Monte Carlo simulation: a scientometric analysis of scholarly literature
Maria Grazia Pia INFN Genova, Italy
Maria Grazia Pia1, Tullio Basaglia2, Zane W. Bell3, Paul V. Dressendorfer4
1INFN Sezione di Genova, Italy – 2CERN, Switzerland – 3ORNL, USA – 4IEEE, USA
SNA + MC 2010Joint International Conference on
Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2010
Maria Grazia Pia, INFN Genova
To write or not to write?
T. Basaglia, Z. W. Bell, P. V. Dressendorfer, A. Larkin, M.G. Pia, Writing Software or Writing Scientific Articles? IEEE Trans.
Nucl. Sci., vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 671-678, 2008
Software publications are largely underrepresented in
particle/nuclear physics literature w.r.t. hardware ones
IEEE NSS 2007
However, some software publications collect a large number of citations
S. Agostinelli et al.,Geant4 - a simulation toolkitNIM A, vol. 506, pp. 250-303, 2003
2079 citations18 October 2010
Maria Grazia Pia, INFN Genova
Features of this study
Thomson-Reuters, ISI Web of Knowledge Web of Science, Journal Citation Reports INFN subscription: since 1990 CERN subscription: since 1970
Journal web sites Not all publishers provide full-text search capabilities
Automated analysis Whenever possible
Manual scan of publication records, abstracts and full-text papers Some degree of subjectivity
Sample of representative journals in research areas exploiting Monte Carlo simulation Does not cover the whole scope of physics/engineering literature
Maria Grazia Pia, INFN Genova
Not just one champion paper…
58% TNS45% NIM A+Bpapers mention
“simulation” or “Monte Carlo”
In the last 5 years (2004-2009)
1960 1964
1965 1969
1970 1974
1975 1979
1980 1984
1985 1989
1990 1994
1995 1999
2000 2004
2005 2009
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000110001200013000
TNS NIM A+B Nucl Phys BPhys Lett B Phys Rev D Phys Rev LettMed Phys PMB APJ
Years
Oc
cu
rre
nc
e
The number of papers mentioning Monte Carlo or simulation has been increasing in the past 50 years
1960 1964
1965 1969
1970 1974
1975 1979
1980 1984
1985 1989
1990 1994
1995 1999
2000 2004
2005 2009
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
TNS NIM A+B Nucl Phys BPhys Lett B Phys Rev D Phys Rev LettMed Phys PMB APJ
Years
Pu
bli
shed
pap
ers
Also the total number of published papers has increased
Maria Grazia Pia, INFN Genova
Patterns in TNS papers~ 60% recent publications mention model*
~ 60% recent publications mention Monte Carlo OR simulationThe fraction of papers mentioning these words has been growing
over the last 50 years
The increase appears to be associated with Monte Carlo and/or
simulation
Roughly constant fraction of papers mentioning
model*, but not mentioning
Monte Carlo or simulation19
6019
6319
6619
6919
7219
7519
7819
8119
8419
8719
9019
9319
9619
9920
0220
0520
080.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
MC/simulation model*model* AND MC/simulation model NOT MC/simulation
Year
Fra
cti
on
of
pu
blis
he
d p
ap
ers
Maria Grazia Pia, INFN Genova
Technological journals
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Monte Carlo OR simulation
NIM A+BTNSNIM ANIM B
Year
Fra
cti
on
of
pu
bli
sh
ed
pa
pe
rs
Similar fraction of papers mentioning Monte Carlo or simulation in NIM and TNS until ~1990; then larger fraction in TNS, but similar
trend of increasing fraction
1960-2009
Maria Grazia Pia, INFN Genova
1960 1964
1965 1969
1970 1974
1975 1979
1980 1984
1985 1989
1990 1994
1995 1999
2000 2004
2005 2009
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Phys Rev D Phys Rev LettNucl Phys B Phys Lett B
Years
Oc
cu
rre
nc
e
1960 1964
1965 1969
1970 1974
1975 1979
1980 1984
1985 1989
1990 1994
1995 1999
2000 2004
2005 2009
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Med Phys PMB
Years
Oc
cu
rre
nc
e
Physics journals Medical physics journals
Monte Carlo or Simulation
Maria Grazia Pia, INFN Genova
Relative presence in literature
1960 1964
1965 1969
1970 1974
1975 1979
1980 1984
1985 1989
1990 1994
1995 1999
2000 2004
2005 2009
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
TNS Phys Rev D Phys Rev LettMed Phys PMB APJNIM A NIM B Nucl Phys BPhys Lett B
Years
Oc
cu
rre
nc
e
Monte Carlo or Simulation
Maria Grazia Pia, INFN Genova
What contributes to the increasing popularity of Monte Carlo simulation?
Analysis in progressSocio-economic factors, computing facilities,