The impact of immigration on the population structure of Greece [ 1 ] Viron Kotzamanis [2] , Anastasia Kostaki [3] [1] This research is a part of a research project conducted at the Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analyses, Department of Planning and Regional Development, University of Thessaly, financed by the Greek Ministry of National Education and Religious Affairs (PYTHAGORAS: e-demography, digital platform of information, documentation and analysis of demographic information). [ 2 ] Department of Planning and Regional Development , University of Thessaly, Greece email: [email protected]
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The impact of immigration on the population structure of Greece[1]
Viron Kotzamanis [2], Anastasia Kostaki [3]
[1] This research is a part of a research project conducted at the Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analyses, Department of Planning and Regional Development, University of Thessaly, financed by the Greek Ministry of National Education and Religious Affairs (PYTHAGORAS: e-demography, digital platform of information, documentation and analysis of demographic information).
[2] Department of Planning and Regional Development, University of Thessaly, Greece email: [email protected]
[3] Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece, email: [email protected]
After the 2nd world war until roughly the middle of 70’s, the Greek population exhibited a strong emigration profile. A great amount of emigrants moved to highly industrialized countries especially to the USA, Canada, Australia and W. Germany.
Then, at the early 80’s a part of them came back.
Since the early 90’s the country experience a strong immigration wave, mainly from the neighboring Balkans countries (especially Albania) and secondary from the other East European countries.
Table 1: Population distribution (census data 2001)
Table 6: Percentages of active population (census data 2001)
In order to investigate the implications of immigration in the population structure of Greece, in a lower geographical level, we consider the native population, as well as the actual (real) one (natives plus immigrants) of each spatial unit (municipality), and then,
we build the differences between the values of the following characteristics in each spatial unit, for the two populations.
proportion of males mean age proportion of population aged [15, 65) proportion of population aged 65+Finally, using statistical classification (statistical clustering) techniques, We classify municipalities in homogenous groups (clusters) according to specific statistical criteria based to the size of these differences.In order to reveal the optimal grouping of the municipality units into homogenous groups, we utilize the procedure of
Two-step Cluster Analysis,an exploratory statistical technique designed to reveal natural grouping (or clusters) in a data set that would otherwise not be apparent.The analysis is implemented in the SPSS statistical package
. very high level . high level . low level . very low level . mean level
54321
TwoStep ClusterNumber
Cluster Size
Attribute Importance
FindingsFindings According to the nationality of the immigrant, the municipalities form
five distinct profiles:
Profile 1: Highest presentation of Group I and IV (for Group I more than 50% compared with country mean = 14,35%, and for Group IV, 8,77 in comparison to the country mean = 4,37%. Lowest presentation of Group II (less than a half of their mean presentation in the country). N=84
Profile 2: Highest presentation of Group III (more than 50% compared with country mean = 9,49%),Lowest presentation of Group II (less than the half of their mean presentation in the country), N=55
Profile 3: High presentation of Group II (more than double the country mean); Somewhat lower presentation of the other groups. N=120
Profile 4: Highest presentation of Group II ( 88%), Very low presentation of the other groups. N=513
Profile 5: Highest presentation of Group I; Low presentation of Groups II and III. N=242
Map 5: Municipalities profiles according to their Map 5: Municipalities profiles according to their nationality synthesis of the immigrantsnationality synthesis of the immigrants
CLUSTERING OF MUNICIPALITIES ACCORDING TO THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION IN THE PROPORTION OF MALES (Distribution by sex)
Cluster Distribution
Cluster Profiles
N% of
Combined
Cluster 1 36 3,6%
2 259 26,0%
3 701 70,4%
Combined 996 100,0%
Excluded Cases36
Total1032
Increase of the Male Proportion
Meanincrease Std. Deviation
Cluster 1 ,0355 ,0127
2 ,0113 ,0042
3 ,0013 ,0027
Combined ,0051 ,0083
321
TwoStep ClusterNumber
Cluster Size
Cluster Distribution
CLUSTER 1 NMinimum
Maximum Mean
Std. Deviation
Males in Total Population 36 ,50 ,63 ,544 ,028
Males in Greek Population 36 ,46 ,60 ,509 ,026
Proportions Differences 36 ,04 ,09 ,035 ,013
CLUSTER 2 NMinim
umMaxim
um MeanStd.
Deviation
Males in Total Population 259 ,48 ,57 ,513 ,014
Males in Greek Population 259 ,47 ,55 ,501 ,013
Proportions Differences 259 ,01 ,02 ,012 ,004
CLUSTER 3 NMinim
umMaxim
um MeanStd.
Deviation
Males in Total Population 701 ,46 1,00 ,507 ,027
Males in Greek Population 701 ,45 1,00 ,505 ,028
Proportions Differences 701 -,01 ,01 ,002 ,003
321
Cluster
0,04
0,03
0,02
0,01
0,00
diff_
males
Reference Line is the Overall Mean = ,01
Simultaneous 95% Confidence Intervals for Means
MAP 6 : Classification of municipalities according to the impact of immigration on their sex distribution (on the proportion of males)
CLUSTERING BY MEAN AGE
321
TwoStep ClusterNumber
Cluster Size
Attribute Importance
Cluster Distribution
Cluster Profiles
N % of Combined
Cluster 1 568 57,0%
2 312 31,3%
3 116 11,6%
Combined 996 100,0%
Excluded Cases 36
Total 1032
Decrease of mean age
Mean Std. Deviation
Cluster 1 - ,33 ,19
2 -1,01 ,25
3 -2,10 ,57
Combined - ,75 ,64
321
Cluster
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
diff_
mea
nage
Reference Line is the Overall Mean = -,75
Simultaneous 95% Confidence Intervals for Means
Map 7: Clustering of municipalities according to the impact of immigrants in the mean age of their population
RESULTS:RESULTS:
In 30% (295 out of 996) of the municipalities the proportion of males exhibit statistically significant increase.
In 43% (428 out of 996) of the municipalities the mean age of the population becomes statistically significant higher.
In 28% (282 out of 996) of the municipalities the population in active ages exhibit statistically significant increase.
In 30% (299 out of 996) of the municipalities the proportion of population aged 65+ exhibit statistically significant decline.