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The Impact of Foresight on “policy-making” - Drawing the landscape Philine Warnke, Olivier DaCosta, Fabiana Scapolo Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS)
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The Impact of Foresight on “policy-making” Drawing the ...forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/8_mutual/documents/ws2/MLWS_0406... · The Impact of Foresight on “policy-making”-Drawing

Jun 15, 2018

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Page 1: The Impact of Foresight on “policy-making” Drawing the ...forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/8_mutual/documents/ws2/MLWS_0406... · The Impact of Foresight on “policy-making”-Drawing

The Impact of Foresight on “policy-making”-

Drawing the landscapePhiline Warnke, Olivier DaCosta, Fabiana Scapolo

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS)

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OutlineOutline

• Review of the issue

• Insights from previous workshop

• The background statements

• Synthesis of online discussion

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Why revisiting impact on policyWhy revisiting impact on policy--making?making?

Interviews and literature review revealed a need to reconsider this topic due to:

• Increasing emphasis on Foresight process

• Debate on new policy support tools

• Long-standing experience in Foresight allows for review of lessons learned

• More attempts on impact assessment

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Point of departure WS IPoint of departure WS IContributions of Foresight to policy-making

1. Policy informing

2. Policy facilitating

3. Policy process improving

Guiding question:

How to deal with tensions between these functions in order to improve policy impact?

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Foresight FunctionsForesight Functions

actor

Policy

Forward looking intelligencePolicy InformingPolicy Informing

Links, Interfaces

Distributed Intelligence

Joint Learning Platform

Joint Vision

actor

actor

Policy FacilitatingPolicy Facilitating

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11 Policy informingPolicy informing

• Provide forward-looking intelligence

• Provide guiding visions

Improve knowledge base of policy conceptualisation and design

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22 Policy FacilitatingPolicy Facilitating

• distributed strategic intelligence

• links, interfaces, knowledge flows

• platforms for joint learning

• common ground and shared visions

• future oriented attitudes

enabling change

soft coordination

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33 Policy process improvingPolicy process improving

• Increase transparency and legitimacy

• Foster long-term orientation

• Introduce reflexivity

Improved mode of governance in multi layered and multi actor arenas

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Outcomes of previous workshopOutcomes of previous workshop

• Foresight should and can attempt to achieve all three functions

• Tensions are relevant but can be dealt with by diligent design

• To actively support policy decisions (if this is the aim!) we need to move one step further

– integrate a normative element

– move to „user/client-oriented forward-looking strategies“ (Matthias)

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ForesightForesight in the in the policypolicy processprocess ((MauritsMaurits))

Visiondevelopment

Policydevelopment Implementation

Initiation

Feedback

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Adaptive Foresight Adaptive Foresight ……

• Tailored approaches with distinctive phases with different levels of:

– Stakeholder participation

– Policy involvement

– Methods

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Food for thought: Adaptive ForesightFood for thought: Adaptive Foresight

From vision to action

Diversity and level ofParticipation

A few decision-makers

Citizen participation

Large societaldebate

Stakeholder expert groups

Phase I:Diagnosis

Vision How to get there

+ recommendations

Measures, actionsDiagnosis

Phase II: Exploration

Phase III: Strategic orientation

Phase IV: Making choices

Phase V: Implementation and coordination

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Starting point for this workshop:Starting point for this workshop:online discussiononline discussion

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Theme 1 Informing vs. normative Theme 1 Informing vs. normative function of foresightfunction of foresight

Core Issue

• How should the normative dimension be integrated?

Aspects

• Normative does not necessarily mean tying Foresight to nowadays policy objectives. Foresight can have the function to question existing objectives therefore

• whether exploratory or normative aspect is dominant is depending on

– Foresight type (problem oriented vs. S&T oriented)

– Objective of exercise (e.g. for participatory priority setting not so relevant)

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Theme 2 Theme 2 -- Stakeholder participationStakeholder participation

Core issue 1

• Should there be participation of lay persons? How?

Aspects

• Different rationales for lay person inclusion:

– knowledge is often highly relevant (e.g. as users)

– ordinary citizen need to participate in a decision that has an impact on them (e.g. consensus conference)

• Danger of parallel democracy

• What about the costs?

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Theme 2 Theme 2 -- Stakeholder participationStakeholder participation

Core issue 2 (related to theme 4)

• Do we need windows of seclusion where Foresight works exclusively with policy makers?

– Dependent on political culture

– protected spaces to target hidden agendas

– Why not wide participation in all phases?

– deliberative democracy?

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Theme 3 Political Theme 3 Political involvement/engagementinvolvement/engagement

Core Issue

To what degree should policy makers themselves be involved?

• Involvement necessary but difficult

• Involvement increases use of results

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Theme 4 ImplementationTheme 4 Implementation

• How can Foresight contribute to policy strategy building?

– Should their be distinctive elements dedicated to strategy building?

– How far should Foresight move into planning? What happens to the creativity?

– Foresight practitioners unwilling to enter into strategy building?

– How to support the actual choice policy makers have to make in the end?

– Should Foresight be complemented by other instruments (transition management, participatory/ constructive TA, impact assessment)? How?

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Tensions between both functionsTensions between both functions

• Trade off between broadness of participation and analytical depth (intensiveness vs. extensiveness)

• Policy support needs to target hidden agendas which policy makers do not always like to disclose publicly

• Policy makers need to link anticipatory intelligence to normative objectives

• Strategic intelligence calls for sound knowledge of policy process which the stakeholders do not necessarily have

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Approaches to address tension between Approaches to address tension between policy informing and facilitatingpolicy informing and facilitating

• Separation

• Translation

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SeparationSeparationTwo types of exerciseTwo types of exercise

R&D community Industry

Civil Society

Policy

“Societal”Foresight

“Professional-analytic”Foresight

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TranslationTranslationOutcome of participatory Foresight is Outcome of participatory Foresight is ““translated to policytranslated to policy--makersmakers””

Policy

• Anticipatory intelligence• Recommendations

Distributed Intelligence

Joint Visionlinks

Interface