The Impact of Foresight on “policy-making” - Drawing the landscape Philine Warnke, Olivier DaCosta, Fabiana Scapolo Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS)
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The Impact of Foresight on “policy-making”-
Drawing the landscapePhiline Warnke, Olivier DaCosta, Fabiana Scapolo
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS)
OutlineOutline
• Review of the issue
• Insights from previous workshop
• The background statements
• Synthesis of online discussion
Why revisiting impact on policyWhy revisiting impact on policy--making?making?
Interviews and literature review revealed a need to reconsider this topic due to:
• Increasing emphasis on Foresight process
• Debate on new policy support tools
• Long-standing experience in Foresight allows for review of lessons learned
• More attempts on impact assessment
Point of departure WS IPoint of departure WS IContributions of Foresight to policy-making
1. Policy informing
2. Policy facilitating
3. Policy process improving
Guiding question:
How to deal with tensions between these functions in order to improve policy impact?
Foresight FunctionsForesight Functions
actor
Policy
Forward looking intelligencePolicy InformingPolicy Informing
Links, Interfaces
Distributed Intelligence
Joint Learning Platform
Joint Vision
actor
actor
Policy FacilitatingPolicy Facilitating
11 Policy informingPolicy informing
• Provide forward-looking intelligence
• Provide guiding visions
Improve knowledge base of policy conceptualisation and design
22 Policy FacilitatingPolicy Facilitating
• distributed strategic intelligence
• links, interfaces, knowledge flows
• platforms for joint learning
• common ground and shared visions
• future oriented attitudes
enabling change
soft coordination
33 Policy process improvingPolicy process improving
• Increase transparency and legitimacy
• Foster long-term orientation
• Introduce reflexivity
Improved mode of governance in multi layered and multi actor arenas
Outcomes of previous workshopOutcomes of previous workshop
• Foresight should and can attempt to achieve all three functions
• Tensions are relevant but can be dealt with by diligent design
• To actively support policy decisions (if this is the aim!) we need to move one step further
– integrate a normative element
– move to „user/client-oriented forward-looking strategies“ (Matthias)
ForesightForesight in the in the policypolicy processprocess ((MauritsMaurits))
Visiondevelopment
Policydevelopment Implementation
Initiation
Feedback
Adaptive Foresight Adaptive Foresight ……
• Tailored approaches with distinctive phases with different levels of:
– Stakeholder participation
– Policy involvement
– Methods
Food for thought: Adaptive ForesightFood for thought: Adaptive Foresight
From vision to action
Diversity and level ofParticipation
A few decision-makers
Citizen participation
Large societaldebate
Stakeholder expert groups
Phase I:Diagnosis
Vision How to get there
+ recommendations
Measures, actionsDiagnosis
Phase II: Exploration
Phase III: Strategic orientation
Phase IV: Making choices
Phase V: Implementation and coordination
13
Starting point for this workshop:Starting point for this workshop:online discussiononline discussion
Theme 1 Informing vs. normative Theme 1 Informing vs. normative function of foresightfunction of foresight
Core Issue
• How should the normative dimension be integrated?
Aspects
• Normative does not necessarily mean tying Foresight to nowadays policy objectives. Foresight can have the function to question existing objectives therefore
• whether exploratory or normative aspect is dominant is depending on
– Foresight type (problem oriented vs. S&T oriented)
– Objective of exercise (e.g. for participatory priority setting not so relevant)
Theme 2 Theme 2 -- Stakeholder participationStakeholder participation
Core issue 1
• Should there be participation of lay persons? How?
Aspects
• Different rationales for lay person inclusion:
– knowledge is often highly relevant (e.g. as users)
– ordinary citizen need to participate in a decision that has an impact on them (e.g. consensus conference)
• Danger of parallel democracy
• What about the costs?
Theme 2 Theme 2 -- Stakeholder participationStakeholder participation
Core issue 2 (related to theme 4)
• Do we need windows of seclusion where Foresight works exclusively with policy makers?
– Dependent on political culture
– protected spaces to target hidden agendas
– Why not wide participation in all phases?
– deliberative democracy?
Theme 3 Political Theme 3 Political involvement/engagementinvolvement/engagement
Core Issue
To what degree should policy makers themselves be involved?
• Involvement necessary but difficult
• Involvement increases use of results
Theme 4 ImplementationTheme 4 Implementation
• How can Foresight contribute to policy strategy building?
– Should their be distinctive elements dedicated to strategy building?
– How far should Foresight move into planning? What happens to the creativity?
– Foresight practitioners unwilling to enter into strategy building?
– How to support the actual choice policy makers have to make in the end?
– Should Foresight be complemented by other instruments (transition management, participatory/ constructive TA, impact assessment)? How?
Tensions between both functionsTensions between both functions
• Trade off between broadness of participation and analytical depth (intensiveness vs. extensiveness)
• Policy support needs to target hidden agendas which policy makers do not always like to disclose publicly
• Policy makers need to link anticipatory intelligence to normative objectives
• Strategic intelligence calls for sound knowledge of policy process which the stakeholders do not necessarily have
Approaches to address tension between Approaches to address tension between policy informing and facilitatingpolicy informing and facilitating
• Separation
• Translation
SeparationSeparationTwo types of exerciseTwo types of exercise
R&D community Industry
Civil Society
Policy
“Societal”Foresight
“Professional-analytic”Foresight
TranslationTranslationOutcome of participatory Foresight is Outcome of participatory Foresight is ““translated to policytranslated to policy--makersmakers””
Policy
• Anticipatory intelligence• Recommendations
Distributed Intelligence
Joint Visionlinks
Interface
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