The Impact of COOL on The Impact of COOL on Mexican Cattle and Beef Mexican Cattle and Beef Production and Trade Production and Trade Derrell S. Peel Derrell S. Peel Department of Agricultural Department of Agricultural Economics Economics Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University
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The Impact of COOL on Mexican Cattle and Beef Production and Trade Derrell S. Peel Department of Agricultural Economics Oklahoma State University.
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The Impact of COOL on The Impact of COOL on Mexican Cattle and Beef Mexican Cattle and Beef
Production and TradeProduction and Trade
Derrell S. PeelDerrell S. PeelDepartment of Agricultural Department of Agricultural
EconomicsEconomics
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University
Background
• Mexico has exported cattle to the U.S. for many years
• Recently Mexico has become a major export market for U.S. beef
Impacts of COOL on Mexico
• Initial: COOL may reduce cattle exports to the U.S.
• Secondary: Changes in the type and quantity of beef production in Mexico will impact Mexican imports of U.S. beef
MAJOR U S BEEF EXPORT MARKETSCarcass Weight, Annual
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Japan Canada Mexico Korea
Mil. Pounds
Avg.1996/00
2001
2002
I-N-1803/04/03
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mil. Pounds
Japan
Canada
Mexico
SouthKorea
I-N-3501/23/03
U.S. Beef Export Shares
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
KOREAMEXICOCANADAJAPAN
CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICOAnnual
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Thou. Head
I-N-1703/04/03
1,004,609 head (1986-2002)
3.2 % of Feeder Supplies
CATTLE EXPORTS TO MEXICOAnnual
0
100
200
300
400
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Thou. Head
Mexico
I-N-1403/04/03
Impact of COOL on U.S/Mexican Cattle and Beef
Trade• Analysis with the GANAMEX model• Assume complete elimination of cattle
imports• No change in Mexican consumption• Results show long run adjustments in
• Movement of cattle between production regions for stocker and grass finishing
GANAMEX: Principal Characteristics, III
• Exports of steer and heifer calves• Exports of feeder steers and heifers• Imports of 2 meat types• Imports of slaughter cows• Exports of beef• Imports of Central American calves and