W17 Personal Excellence 5/7/2014 3:00:00 PM The Impact of Cognitive Biases on Test and Project Teams Presented by: Thomas Cagley The David Consulting Group Brought to you by: 340 Corporate Way, Suite 300, Orange Park, FL 32073 888-268-8770 ∙ 904-278-0524 ∙ [email protected]∙ www.sqe.com
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The Impact of Cognitive Biases on Test and Project Teams
Teams are a fundamental part of the way we all work. Understanding the ins and outs of team decision making makes us better employees, better co-workers, and even better people. As developers and testers, we continuously make decisions. Most decisions are based on how the decision maker perceives the information at hand. That perception is driven by many factors including cognitive biases—the mental shortcuts we use that lead us to simplify, make quick decisions, and ultimately mess up when we’re trying to attack new problems. Biases can affect how information is perceived, and how teams and individuals behave. Biases are like optical illusions—we see what we want to see, even when we know better. Learn the cognitive biases that affect team thinking and take away strategies for how your team can work with and around these biases. Finally, discover how psychology can make your team more efficient and effective together.
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W17
Personal Excellence
5/7/2014 3:00:00 PM
The Impact of Cognitive Biases
on Test and Project Teams
Presented by:
Thomas Cagley
The David Consulting Group
Brought to you by:
340 Corporate Way, Suite 300, Orange Park, FL 32073
VP of consulting for The David Consulting Group, Thomas Cagley is an authority in guiding organizations through continuous process improvement. His areas of expertise encompass a wide variety of methods and metrics including lean software development, agile software development, quality integration, quality assurance, and the application of the Software Engineering Institute’s Capability Maturity Model® Integration (CMMI) to achieve process improvements. Thomas is an active member of the International Function Point Users Group and a Certified Function Point Specialist. He is the editor of the Software Process and Measurement Podcast (SPaMCAST), blogs at tcagley.wordpress.com, and can be reached at [email protected].
• Perception biases are filters and / or shortcuts that help us perceive information quickly in a manner that turns out to be a generally beneficial to a decision process. Perception biases affect how project teams see information and the types of decisions that can be made.
Perception Biases
• Behavior biases effect how we behave or how we tend to group together (which then affects how we perceive the world around us. Behavior biases create a feedback loop to help us to successfully interact with the environment (at least our perception of our own world).
Behavior Biases
• Motivational biases (also known as social biases and attribution biases) reflect errors make when evaluating the rational for your own behavior as well as others. Misperceptions of what is driving behavior can cause team communication problems and erode team trust.
VP of consulting for The David Consulting Group, Thomas Cagley is an authority in guiding organizations through continuous process improvement. His areas of expertise encompass a wide variety of methods and metrics including lean software development, agile software development, quality integration, quality assurance, and the application of the Software Engineering Institute’s Capability Maturity Model® Integration (CMMI) to achieve process improvements. Thomas is an active member of the International Function Point Users Group and a Certified Function Point Specialist. He is the editor of the Software Process and Measurement Podcast (SPaMCAST), blogs at tcagley.wordpress.com, and can be reached at [email protected].
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Cognitive Bias and Effective Teams
Thomas M Cagley Jr
Meghan E Cagley
No man is an island,
Entire of itself,
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
- John Donne
John Donne may not have had project teams and cognitive biases in mind when he wrote his famous
poem; however the description is apt. Cognitive bias reflects a pattern of behavior in which a person acts
differently than would seem normal in certain situations (based on inaccurate judgment or illogical
interpretation). Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the phrase cognitive bias in 19721. Biases
can affect how we make decisions, how teams and individuals behave and even our perception of
ourselves. Biases are a part of nearly every human interaction. Every human has cognitive biases and
because humans are all unique the impact of the bias are unique to each individual. Cognitive biases are
an inescapable part of basic human nature. In order for a team to effectively deliver business value, it
must recognize the biases each member brings to the table and how they interact.
Cognitive biases work by causing an individual to perceive the world around them in a manner that is
outside of what typically would be considered logical. For example, when someone falls prey to an anchor
bias when buying a car they will be influenced by the first price they are exposed to even if it does not
match their expectations. A company has to advertise a regular price before they can establish value or
quote a regular price. For example, many people believed that setting a high price for the original Iphone
then dropping the price substantially 74 days later was an attempt to use the anchor bias to create a
perception that the IPhone was a good value for the money. Our cognitive biases are neither good nor bad
if we are aware of them.
Project team members make decisions on a continuous basis. Most decisions are made based on how the
decision-maker sees the information he or she has at hand. One bias that can affect how information is
perceived is the illusory correlation. The illusory correlation is when you think a relationship exists
1 Kahneman, Daniel; Shane Frederick (2002). "Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive
Judgment". In Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 51–52. ISBN 978-0-521-79679-8.
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between two or more variables, but that relationship doesn’t necessarily exist. For example, a team that
works more hours a week might be perceived to have higher productivity because working longer gives the
perception of creating more output. But, of course, hours and productivity aren’t necessarily related. Once
you fixate on one relationship, you will often pay less attention to others. In this case, you’ll miss the level
of effort the team is expending, which if you are paying for the work by the hour means you could run up
quite a bill when you think your productivity is good based on hours spent. These biases can impact the
outcome of decisions of course.
Biases develop as shortcuts that help us perceive information and help us make decisions quickly. Pattern
recognition biases helped early humans stay alive by recognizing situations where they’d likely run into
predators2. The resulting decisions kept our ancestors alive, even if there were false positives (you could
have lots of false positives, but only one false negative because the one false negative would get you eaten).
Project teams (Agile or not) use or fall prey to a wide range of biases that affect perceptions and impact
decisions. A sample of common biases include:
Anchor bias refers to the tendency to rely heavily on one piece of information when making decisions.
This bias is often seen when early estimates for a project or a tasks are made. The instant they are placed
on the table they become a reference point to which all changes will be compared.
Clustering illusion (or clustering bias) is the tendency to see patterns or trends in clusters or streaks in
a smaller sample of data inside larger data sets. For example, a team I recently worked with had an
average velocity of 30 story points per sprint (ranged between 20 – 36). They had three sprints in a row
that delivered 40+ story points. While nothing significant had changed about how the team was working,
outsiders saw a pattern and believed something out of the ordinary was occurring. (FYI – if there is no
statistical significance to the data what we are seeing is “common cause” variance3.)
The curse of knowledge bias generates a filter that blocks the ability to think about a topic from a
different and generally less-informed perspective. In many cases being an expert on a topic makes it very
difficult to see an out-of-the-box solution. This is one of the reasons significant changes in IT platforms or
concepts come as new players with less experience enter the organization. Similar to the curse of
knowledge bias is the status quo bias, which is the tendency to want things to stay relatively the same. It
creates a perception filter that limits the individual or team to data and concepts that make them
comfortable. These two are similar because knowledge and the status quo are linked.
2 http://www.slideshare.net/elentini1976/the-portable-mba 3 Common cause variance is a reflection of the capacity of the process rather than any special situation.