The Human Factor Disaster risk reduction is about people David Alexander University College London
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The Human FactorDisaster risk reduction
is about people
David AlexanderUniversity College London
HUMANCONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
“ORTHODOX” MODEL
PHYSICALEVENT
HUMANVULNERABILITY
“RADICAL CRITIQUE” (K. HEWITT et al.)HUMAN
CONSEQUENCESOF DISASTER
HUMANVULNERABILITY
PHYSICALEVENT
1983-2017:The relative failure of the radical critique.
The continuing primacy of hazards studies.
Is technology a source of vulnerability?Have we created a 'technofix' culture?
Is it an outgrowth of the hazards paradigm?
Implicit axiom: thesolution to the failure
of technology ismore technology.
• algorithms and software
• robots
• unmanned aerial vehicles
• telecommunicationinstead of face-to-face.
Are we filtering out the humanity out ofemergency planning and management?
With thanks to Gianluca Pescaroli
Basichumanneeds
• they can go into unsafe spaces
• they can carry diverse forms ofsensor and be of various sizes
• they can be connected tonetworks and remote sensing
• they cannot really think, see and feel.
Can urban search and rescue (USAR)really be accomplished by robots?
The procedure:-1. Find a problem2. Simplify it to bare bones3. Invent an algorithm4. Hey presto!
Example:-1. How to optimise the distribution of
relief goods after a disaster.2. Where to put distribution centres.3. Apply a fuzzy analytical
hierarchy process.4. Problem solved (?).
• Missing or inadequate scenariosfor the impact of the disaster.
• Magnitude and frequency issuesgive different exigencies.
• Do field commanders want to usethe algorithm, are they able todo so, and would it help them?
• We don't construct warehouses inthe emergency phase of a disaster.
• Route blockages are commonand somewhat unpredictable.
A chasm has opened betweenfield practice and new algorithms.
Humanitarian logistics: an increasinglypopular field in which many researchersdo not understand the essence of theproblems they are trying to tackle.
Redundancy• physical: more equipment• human: other ways of doing things
How much redundancy can we afford?• human redundancy - as much
as we can think and devise• technological redundancy –
only a few systems are inthe 'high reliability' class.
• telecommunication alternatives (cellnet ACCOLC, Bluetooth, pager, etc.)
• paper, pencil and aperson who can run fast
• procedures that favour autonomousoperations (i.e. do without a common operating picture).
For example, radios stop working
Conclusions
The technofix culture is anoutgrowth of the hazards paradigm:we should emphasise vulnerability!
• Are robots and dronessimply red herrings?
• Should we discouragethe algorithm makers?
• Do we need better humanitarianlogistics or none at all?.
A DRR that is about peopleis labour intensive:• machines and algorithms don't
answer back - but they do foul up• machines are cheaper than salaries
(capital expenditure is easier toauthorise than revenue expenditure)
The curse of emergency preparedness:capital expenditure overshadows revenue
expenditure (an unsustainable'one-off' culture).
Alan H. Barton, sociologist, Columbia University
1969-70
Charles E. Fritz, 1921-2000,sociologist, Chicago University
The 'therapeutic community',if it exists, does so undervery difficult circumstances:fear, uncertainty, frustration,grief, sadness, disorientation...
Sergio Pirozzi, Mayor of Amatrice
Amatrice, 7th October 2016
Thank youfor listening!
www.slideshare.net/dealexanderemergency-planning.blogspot.com
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